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January 13-21st Clippers/Hybrids


Chicago Storm

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
910 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
905 PM CST

WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR LAKE COUNTY AND
REORIENTING THE FORECAST SNOW MAXIMA SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHWEST...INCLUDING MORE OF EASTERN COOK COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SETUP ALREADY HAS TAKEN SHAPE WITH -22C AIR AT 850MB AS
SEEN ON THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING PROGRESSING QUICKLY DOWN THE LAKE. SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY UNFOCUSED...ARE MOVING INTO THE NE IL AND THE LAKE
COUNTY IN SHORE AT THIS HOUR...WHILE A WELL-DEFINED BAND IS SEEN ON
THE MKE TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR OVER MID-LAKE...WITH UP TO 30 DBZ
INDICATIVE OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW. THE TREND ON THIS BAND HAS BEEN
TO EVOLVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST AND TRAJECTORIES WOULD INDICATE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY SHORE/NORTHEAST COOK COUNTY SHORE BY
10-11 PM.

OBSERVATIONS ON LAND HAVE BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD BETTER
CONVERGENCE...LIKE THERE PRESUMABLY IS OVER THE LAKE...BUT IS STILL
SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED ON SHORE. SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT ON
HOW LONG THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL PERSIST INTO
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES A
TREND TO GRADUALLY SHIFT THIS MORE SO INTO COOK COUNTY BY THE MIDDLE
OF OVERNIGHT. BUT EVEN SO WITH THE RADAR TRENDS AND THE FORECAST
INSTABILITY MENTIONED IN PREV AFD STILL SEEN ON LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE...FEEL THAT A QUICK BURST OF THREE PLUS INCHES CERTAINLY
COULD BE SEEN IN SOUTHEAST LAKE.

AS FOR EASTERN COOK COUNTY...TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND DIRECTED INTO CHICAGO FOR SEVERAL
HOURS IF NOT THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE FACT OF
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS HAS LED TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT NOT BY MUCH SIMPLY DUE TO THE WIDTH OF THE BAND BEING
VERY NARROW AND UNDULATIONS REMAINING LIKELY.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE WATCH FOR PORTER COUNTY AS
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR EAST THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL MOVE TUESDAY.

AS FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH...LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
SYNOPTIC MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE INTO
OVERNIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND AN INCH.

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Given radar returns over southern Lake Michigan and the possibility of the band stalling over Chicago overnight, this has a chance to turn into something pretty epic by Chicago LES standards.  Sure there's the little bit of system snow but this is going to be almost all lake effect.

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