RJSnowLover Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Izzi says... AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES...THE RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS/RISING INVERSIONHEIGHTS AND IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN ANIMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NEAR THESOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE. ALL LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE FORECAST TOBE NEAR THE UPPER ECHELONS OF FAVORABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE LAKEINDUCED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS. BESTDENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAY BE A BIT LOWER THAN I`D LIKE TO SEE ANDPERHAPS A BIT BELOW CLOUD DECK...BUT THAT`S ALSO ASSUMING FORECASTSOUNDINGS ARE REPRESENTATIVES OF LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS WITHIN THELES SNOW BAND...WHICH SOME STUDIES HAVE SHOWN IS NOT THE CASE. GIVENALL OF THE ABOVE SUSPECT AN INTENSE SINGLE BAND WILL DEVELOPSOMETIME LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE LAKE AND COME ONSHORE INTO COOKCO AROUND OR JUST BEYOND 06Z AND MEANDER AROUND NE IL OVERNIGHTBEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NW INDY TUES MORNING...THEN PROGRESSINGEAST FROM THERE. SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES PER HOUR AREEXPECTED WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE BAND...WHICH WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE5-10MI WIDE...WHICH OF COURSE WILL LEAD TO THE TYPICAL WIDELYVARYING SNOWFALL TOTALS. BEST GUESS WOULD BE FOR TOTALS IN THE 6-12INCH RANGE OVER EASTERN COOK AND NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE AND PROBABLYPORTER COUNTY...WITH ISOLATED MAX TOTALS OF UP TO A FOOT AND A HALFPOSSIBLE IF THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE BAND IS HIGH IN ANY ONE GIVENPOINT. HAVE OPTED TO HANG ONTO THE WATCH FOR PORTER DUE TO THE LATERONSET AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY. ALSO NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN HOWFAR INLAND THE HEAVY SNOW WILL PENETRATE...PAST CASES HAVE SEENWARNING LEVEL SNOWS REACH EASTERN WILL COUNTY BEFORE AND THAT IS ADISTINCT POSSIBILITY BUT FELT MORE COMFORTABLE STARTING WITH ANADVISORY THERE. NORTHERN JASPER AND POSSIBLY NEWTON MAY NEED ANADVISORY EVENTUALLY TOO...BUT THIS ALSO CAN BE ASSESSED BY THEEVENING OR NIGHT SHIFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 flurries quickly into SN. My wgn weather app has me at 3-5". Figured it would be enough for a WWA but I guess the WSW covers it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Snow has really picked up here over the last ten mins or so. Was actually having a hard time sticking to paved areas at first. Cooled back to just under freezing now, and paved areas quickly whitening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 -SN Flake size has decreased but cleared surfaces are whitening up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I expect almost the entire area in purple to get 8+. It's possible those kind of amounts extend outside of that zone, especially farther east, but just don't have enough confidence yet. The area in lighter purple is the zone I'm particularly interested in for a potential jackpot but it's really going to be a nowcast thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I expect almost the entire area in purple to get 8+. It's possible those kind of amounts extend outside of that zone, especially farther east, but just don't have enough confidence yet. The area in lighter purple is the zone I'm particularly interested in for a potential jackpot but it's really going to be a nowcast thing. les.png Thanks for including the Midway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Mod sn, big flakes falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Thanks for including the Midway Haha. Good luck there. Even after watching countless events over the years, LES is one of the most nightmarish things to predict so don't be surprised if I'm way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Alek is going to get blitzed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 23z RAP really never takes the LES band into Indiana. Edit: based on crappy graphics so not entirely sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 LOT trending slightly bullierish.... DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES TURNING WINDS NORTHNORTHEAST. BEHIND THIS FRONT THERE IS WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR LIGHTTO TEMPORARY MODERATE SNOW AND THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARDOVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID-EVE. EXPECT TEMPORARY IFR VISIBILITYWITH THIS. AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH BEHIND THEFRONT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECTSNOW SHOWERS...INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVYSNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING OFF THEMI SHORE. THE TIMING OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS IS MOST FAVORED LATEEVE AND OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHEAST IL...AND TUE MORNING FOR NW IN.LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THEMSELVES CAN TEMPORARILY BRING LIFRVISIBILITY...BUT A WELL-DEFINED BAND WILL ESPECIALLY BEPROBLEMATIC...WITH PROBABLE 1/4SM VISIBILITY. THE EXACT PLACEMENTOF THIS BAND IS CHALLENGING AS SOME UNDULATIONS ARE LIKELY...SOTHAT MAKES TIMING TRICKY FOR THE TAFS. BUT HAVE OPTED TO HIT MDWAND GYY HARDER WITH LOWER VISIBILITY...AND ORD COULD VERY WELLHAVE A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS AND QUICKACCUMULATION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EASTAS THE LAKE EFFECT BAND PIVOTS AND LESS OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TOTHE WIND IS REALIZED.FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS...ORD AND MDW ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ONEHALF TO ONE INCH THROUGH 03Z. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUEAT ORD AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. FORMDW...AN ADDITIONAL AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES IS FAVORED...WITH THEINCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 6...AND POSSIBLY EVEN 12 INCHES. GYY ISSIMILAR TO MDW FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATION.WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AND GUSTY THROUGHTHIS EVE AND POTENTIALLY VERY GUSTY WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS NEAR THELAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOMEBLOWING SNOW IF THIS IS REALIZED. WINDS SHOULD EASE THEIR WAYNNW...BUT MAY HANG AT DUE NORTH FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND DAYBREAKAND INTO MID-MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 mimillman gonna bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 23z RAP really never takes the LES band into Indiana. Edit: based on crappy graphics so not entirely sure Into Chicago for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 mimillman gonna bust S**t. I'll be sure to post our mountains of snow on the forum Maybe I'll take a walk around campus in the early morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 i'll wait until 9-10 to evaluate and then set an alarm for a early morning jeb walk if things look promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Snow has really picked up in the last few minutes as the arctic front just passed. Went from a snow globe type of snow to a wind-whipped granulated flake situation in a matter of minutes. Looks pretty legit out there. Picked up a bit over an inch from what I can tell from the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 LOT trending slightly bullierish.... Very frustrating. Muddle your calls enough and no one knows what the real call is. Understood, lake effect is difficult call, but is that aviation forecaster referring to synoptic snows or lake effect. Further were grids updated to forecast 2-4 inches at ORD now instead of the 3:30pm update of an inch. Big uptick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Very frustrating. Muddle your calls enough and no one knows what the real call is. Understood, lake effect is difficult call, but is that aviation forecaster referring to synoptic snows or lake effect. Further were grids updated to forecast 2-4 inches at ORD now instead of the 3:30pm update of an inch. Big uptick. sounds like they are calling for 1/2 - 1 inch pre-(legit) lake action...than an additional 1 to 3 for ord and "several" for mdw from strictly LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Snow has really picked up in the last few minutes as the arctic front just passed. Went from a snow globe type of snow to a wind-whipped granulated flake situation in a matter of minutes. Looks pretty legit out there. Picked up a bit over an inch from what I can tell from the window. nice...congrats! you keep getting short periods of legit snow out there this winter....hopefully one produces an extended timeframe for you this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Glad all you posters in Chi town and the Calumet get a chance for a significant LES out of this one.Looks like I will be way too far east here in Elkhart even when the band shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 100" is definitely a snowbelt. The only thing you can say about a snowbelt is that 100" of snow in a snowbelt is WAY different than 100" of snow outside a snowbelt. I cant tell you how many times I check snow depth in snowbelt and nonsnowbelt locals and the difference is nowhere NEAR what it is in snowfall total. Just for example...this winter, Detroit has had 43.1" of snow and Buffalo has had 68.1". Detroit has had a peak snow depth of 16" and had 19 days with a depth of 6"+ . Buffalo has had a peak snow depth of 9" and 9 days with a depth of 6"+. I've had a snow depth of over 20 inches twice. But we have been getting hammered all year in a good spot for the Lake Effect Snow. We have had very little from synoptic events as you guys out West in Indiana, Illinois, and Michigan have been getting destroyed. The Detroit example of snow depth is a unique scenario to this season. We have been on the warm side of the low pressure systems twice this year and had mega torches. Buffalo is at 42.9047° N while Detroit is at 42.3314° N. Buffalo is a tad further north than Detroit. This season just happens to be odd. The Buffalo airport hasn't received the brunt of Lake Effect Events this year. There 30 year average is around 100 inches per year. The average down here is only 10 inches or so higher. But once you get to the lake effect belts there average is 200+. But I will concede to all you guys, anyone facing the right direction of the lake is in effect a lake belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 nice...congrats! you keep getting short periods of legit snow out there this winter....hopefully one produces an extended timeframe for you this winter Yeah excited to watch this event unfold. Besides Reed is there anyone within a hour drive or so that could video tape the heart of the band and post a youtube?! =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Snow has really picked up in the last few minutes as the arctic front just passed. Went from a snow globe type of snow to a wind-whipped granulated flake situation in a matter of minutes. Looks pretty legit out there. Picked up a bit over an inch from what I can tell from the window. Same here. There was a sudden blast of wind that dropped the visibility way down. Snow was blowing off all the roofs. I may end up with about an inch, if I can still measure accurately. The heavier band of snow set up just south of Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Only 0.7" so far here. Flakes have stayed pretty small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 nice...congrats! you keep getting short periods of legit snow out there this winter....hopefully one produces an extended timeframe for you this winter Ha yeah, I'm sure it'll happen eventually. Always nice to see it come down good, even in short bursts. Just measured 1.3" with the intensity still holding strong. Have a shot at my 1-2" call busting. EDIT: Was 33 when it first started snowing, with some melting issues initially. Temp has really crashed in the last half hour. Down to 24 atm, and dropping quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 0.2" at ORD as of 6PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 warming to the dual max idea advertised on a couple different models...the western max (cook shoreline from the loop to gyy) likely featuring a longer duration and another further east when the band is at top strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 looks like a few tenths here...sidewalks nicely coated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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