Brewers Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The strengthening clipper/coastal has really helped developed a better and more sustained NE fetch...hell even the HRRR shows parts of WI may see some LE action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The strengthening clipper/coastal has really helped developed a better and more sustained NE fetch...hell even the HRRR shows parts of WI may see some LE action. Indeed...that is certainly a big player in why things have gone farther west in the past 18-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Regarding the lake effect, omega is basically perfectly located within the DGZ...should rip dendrites with typical high LES ratios. Decent moisture above the inversion tonight into tomorrow and strength of low level flow would favor pretty deep inland penetration. I'll just leave this here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 First and probably only call for LAF...2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL943 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAYAFTERNOON....A BAND OF INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERSOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...MOVING SLOWLY WEST TOWARDTHE FAR SOUTHWEST SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOWCOULD AFFECT AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN COOK COUNTY FOR A TIME LATETONIGHT BEFORE PIVOTING STEADILY EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY EARLYTUESDAY MORNING. THE BAND WILL THEN CONTINUE EAST ACROSS LAKE ANDPORTER COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BANDOF HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE LESS THAN 10 MILES WIDE...SOCONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY GREATLY OVER A VERY SHORT DISTANCE.ILZ014-202345-/O.EXB.KLOT.LE.A.0001.140121T0500Z-140121T1500Z/COOK-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHICAGO943 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGHTUESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAYMORNING.* TIMING...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD MOVE ONSHORE AND AFFECTAREAS NEAR THE LAKE AND INTO SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO LAKE EFFECTSNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER ISOLATED TOTALS INEXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE AND OVER SOUTHEASTCOOK COUNTY.* OTHER IMPACTS...IF THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND MOVES INLANDINTO COOK COUNTY...THEN VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZEROAT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOURLIKELY NEAR THE LAKE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Alek fired up his snow magnet again. St. Louie WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 First and probably only call for LAF...2-3" Looks good to me. Outside shot at hitting 40" for the season when this one is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Winds look to be gusty on the backside of this low also as it strengthens out east so blowing and drifting will be an issue again with most of this snow falling as fluff. Im hoping for a few surprise 4-6 inch totals near Indy. May not be crazy according to 12z NAM and RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Even the GFS showing that deep inland penetration of the LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 might have to set an alarm for a 3am jebwalk...quick hitter but should see a window of real high end stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 4km NAM at 09z Tue am. Rip city over downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 some bonus seeder saturation maintenance looks to be coming into play as well....while not direct plumage for others further west in LOT...some assistance via the lake looks plausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 At this point I'd say the most likely area to get double digit amounts is in a ring around the lake from Chicago (favoring southeast side of city) toward Valpo. Not sure if that entire area gets 10+ but at least parts of it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 izzi update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1002 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014.DISCUSSION...957 AM CSTHAVE EXPANDED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WEST INTO COOK COUNTYILLINOIS. HAVE SEEN A VERY DISTINCT TREND IN PRETTY MUCH ALL THEMODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ONES...TOWARDBRINGING THE LAND-LAKE CONVERGENCE AXIS FARTHER WEST WITH EACHSUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THISWESTWARD TREND OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE GUIDANCE IS A RESULTOF A MORE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTHWESTFROM THE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. WE ARELIKELY TALKING ABOUT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT IS ONLY 5-10 MILESWIDE AND ONLY A SMALL MARGIN OF ERROR EXISTS BETWEEN CRIPPLINGSNOWFALL RATES MAKING IT INTO AN AREAS VERSUS JUST FLURRIES.LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS ALL POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR ANINTENSE SINGLE BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THISEVENING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND PROPAGATING WEST TOWARD COOKCOUNTY BEFORE ROTATING EAST AROUND THE SOUTH RIM OF THE LAKE ACROSSLAKE AND THEN PORTER COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE WESTWARD TREND INTHE MODELS THE OTHER DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IS THE BAND ISEXPECTED TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE...LIMITING RESIDENCE TIME IN ANY ONEAREA WHICH FAVORS MAX ACCUMS MORE IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE VERSUS THE1 TO 2 FT RANGE THAT LOOKED MORE POSSIBLE YESTERDAY. MAX SNOWFALLRATES WITHIN THE BAND COULD REACH 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR...SO IT WOULDONLY TAKE 2 OR 3 HOURS OF INTENSE SNOW TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA.WILL VERY LIKELY BE GOING WITH A WARNING FOR LAKE COUNTY INDIANA ANDPROBABLY COOK COUNTY ILLINOIS WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...THOUGHWOULD LIKE TO GET A LOOK A SOME MORE GUIDANCE BEFORE DECIDINGBETWEEN WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR COOK. PORTER COUNTY MAY NOT SEE THEHEAVY SNOW UNTIL MID TO LATE TUES MORNING SO COULD POTENTIALLY LEAVEWATCH THERE FOR ONE MORE CYCLE OR POSSIBLY UPGRADE TO WARNING THERETHIS AFTERNOON...WILL COORDINATE WITH IWX ON PORTER COUNTY HEADLINEBEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 would love to see a full 2 hrs of 2" per hour LE...not sure i can remember that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 would love to see a full 2 hrs of 2" per hour LE...not sure i can remember that happening. no kiddin'....take a 2 hour nap and you have 4 to 5 more inches of snow on the ground??? hopefully not during a nap though for pic taking sake.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wonder what spot I am going to be in for the LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wonder what spot I am going to be in for the LES 3.3" final call...increasing rapidly to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 One of the only eastern holdouts, the WRF-ARW, is shifting west on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 3.3" final call...increasing rapidly to the east Per hour?!! :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Per hour?!! LE event total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 LE event total Forgot to add my sarcastic smiley face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Forgot to add my sarcastic smiley face it might fall in 1 hour band looks really fast on the NMM but it does show .3"+ for both of us, which would fluff up real nice. Our friend in Hyde Park looks best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm going with 4.1 inches for MBY...been about a month since I busted out the bullish numbers...I like the set-up for enhancement/saturation assistance with the ripple coming through - some quality ratios - and brushed by the plumage 2 times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 ^def bullish, synoptic looks like DAB event IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 00z and 12z ARW comparison, 00z on the left, 12z on the right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yea things are looking mighty fine for Hyde Park right about now, especially at my location less than a mile from the lake front. Point and click has us at 4-6 for this evening. I'm gonna take it a bit more conservative and go 2-3. Happy to experience a lake effect event as I wasn't here for the last one. Hope it materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yea things are looking mighty fine for Hyde Park right about now, especially at my location less than a mile from the lake front. Point and click has us at 4-6 for this evening. I'm gonna take it a bit more conservative and go 2-3. Happy to experience a lake effect event as I wasn't here for the last one. Hope it materializes. too low for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Can anyone in the Chicago area remember what the largest LES event at one time was for them? Just curious as how often the other side of the big lake gets any decent LES? I wouldn't think it occurs to often, I do know areas toward the southern tip towards Gary on east happens more frequently compared to Chicago direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 ^def bullish, synoptic looks like DAB event IMO maybe....interested to see the trend on the RAP for forecasted strength/placement of LP throughout the day... You should have some sweet views of the plumage over the lake from the office tomorrow....I forget what direction you face though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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