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January 13-21st Clippers/Hybrids


Chicago Storm

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The strengthening clipper/coastal has really helped developed a better and more sustained NE fetch...hell even the HRRR shows parts of WI may see some LE action.

 

 

Indeed...that is certainly a big player in why things have gone farther west in the past 18-24 hours. 

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Regarding the lake effect, omega is basically perfectly located within the DGZ...should rip dendrites with typical high LES ratios.  Decent moisture above the inversion tonight into tomorrow and strength of low level flow would favor pretty deep inland penetration.

 

I'll just leave this here.

 

10eg6ly.png

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
943 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.A BAND OF INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...MOVING SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHWEST SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW
COULD AFFECT AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN COOK COUNTY FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE PIVOTING STEADILY EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE BAND WILL THEN CONTINUE EAST ACROSS LAKE AND
PORTER COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE LESS THAN 10 MILES WIDE...SO
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY GREATLY OVER A VERY SHORT DISTANCE.

ILZ014-202345-
/O.EXB.KLOT.LE.A.0001.140121T0500Z-140121T1500Z/
COOK-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHICAGO
943 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

* TIMING...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD MOVE ONSHORE AND AFFECT
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE AND INTO SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER ISOLATED TOTALS IN
EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE AND OVER SOUTHEAST
COOK COUNTY.

* OTHER IMPACTS...IF THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND MOVES INLAND
INTO COOK COUNTY...THEN VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO
AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR
LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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izzi update

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1002 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
957 AM CST

HAVE EXPANDED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WEST INTO COOK COUNTY
ILLINOIS. HAVE SEEN A VERY DISTINCT TREND IN PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ONES...TOWARD
BRINGING THE LAND-LAKE CONVERGENCE AXIS FARTHER WEST WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WESTWARD TREND OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE GUIDANCE IS A RESULT
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST
FROM THE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. WE ARE
LIKELY TALKING ABOUT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT IS ONLY 5-10 MILES
WIDE AND ONLY A SMALL MARGIN OF ERROR EXISTS BETWEEN CRIPPLING
SNOWFALL RATES MAKING IT INTO AN AREAS VERSUS JUST FLURRIES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS ALL POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INTENSE SINGLE BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND PROPAGATING WEST TOWARD COOK
COUNTY BEFORE ROTATING EAST AROUND THE SOUTH RIM OF THE LAKE ACROSS
LAKE AND THEN PORTER COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE WESTWARD TREND IN
THE MODELS THE OTHER DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IS THE BAND IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE...LIMITING RESIDENCE TIME IN ANY ONE
AREA WHICH FAVORS MAX ACCUMS MORE IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE VERSUS THE
1 TO 2 FT RANGE THAT LOOKED MORE POSSIBLE YESTERDAY. MAX SNOWFALL
RATES WITHIN THE BAND COULD REACH 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR...SO IT WOULD
ONLY TAKE 2 OR 3 HOURS OF INTENSE SNOW TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA.


WILL VERY LIKELY BE GOING WITH A WARNING FOR LAKE COUNTY INDIANA AND
PROBABLY COOK COUNTY ILLINOIS WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...THOUGH
WOULD LIKE TO GET A LOOK A SOME MORE GUIDANCE BEFORE DECIDING
BETWEEN WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR COOK. PORTER COUNTY MAY NOT SEE THE
HEAVY SNOW UNTIL MID TO LATE TUES MORNING SO COULD POTENTIALLY LEAVE
WATCH THERE FOR ONE MORE CYCLE OR POSSIBLY UPGRADE TO WARNING THERE
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL COORDINATE WITH IWX ON PORTER COUNTY HEADLINE
BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.

IZZI

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Yea things are looking mighty fine for Hyde Park right about now, especially at my location less than a mile from the lake front. Point and click has us at 4-6 for this evening. I'm gonna take it a bit more conservative and go 2-3. Happy to experience a lake effect event as I wasn't here for the last one. Hope it materializes.

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Yea things are looking mighty fine for Hyde Park right about now, especially at my location less than a mile from the lake front. Point and click has us at 4-6 for this evening. I'm gonna take it a bit more conservative and go 2-3. Happy to experience a lake effect event as I wasn't here for the last one. Hope it materializes.

 

 

too low for sure

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Can anyone in the Chicago area remember what the largest LES event at one time was for them? Just curious as how often the other side of the big lake gets any decent LES? I wouldn't think it occurs to often, I do know areas toward the southern tip towards Gary on east happens more frequently compared to Chicago direction.

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