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January 13-21st Clippers/Hybrids


Chicago Storm

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No arguments here, almost 4 late last week then the 6 on Saturday....a very nice snow pack here

 

Yep, small events are nice too.

 

Not that this is set in stone, but might be another example of the medium range guidance not seeing the subtleties of NW impulses. Patience is warranted and sometimes you get surprises... 

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Radar returns are looking good over SE WI right now. Little vort max moving along the front along with a deepening DGZ, maybe we can have an over performer.

 

edit: seeing locations reporting -sn but better than 5 mile viability isnt a good sign though.

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12z RGEM gives LAF about a quarter inch of precip with more south of here.

 

Yeah, it's fairly "juiced"...and playing catch up. This could be relatively fun.

 

Looping the p-ytpe maps, LES band certainly making inroads into Chicago, if not further north into Geos-land for a time.

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Yeah, it's fairly "juiced"...and playing catch up. This could be relatively fun.

 

Looping the p-ytpe maps, LES band certainly making inroads into Chicago, if not further north into Geos-land for a time.

 

 

I'd say better than 50/50 odds that some part of Chicago picks up 6", whether it's downtown or some of the neighborhoods on the south side.  Band looks a bit transient but if it slows down then things may get really fun there.

 

LOT must love to forecast these situations...a city of 3 million at the mercy of a 10-15 mile wide band of heavy snow. 

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Regarding the lake effect, omega is basically perfectly located within the DGZ...should rip dendrites with typical high LES ratios.  Decent moisture above the inversion tonight into tomorrow and strength of low level flow would favor pretty deep inland penetration.

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Cook put under a watch.

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
943 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.A BAND OF INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...MOVING SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHWEST SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW
COULD AFFECT AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN COOK COUNTY FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE PIVOTING STEADILY EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE BAND WILL THEN CONTINUE EAST ACROSS LAKE AND
PORTER COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE LESS THAN 10 MILES WIDE...SO
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY GREATLY OVER A VERY SHORT DISTANCE.

ILZ014-202345-
/O.EXB.KLOT.LE.A.0001.140121T0500Z-140121T1500Z/
COOK-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHICAGO
943 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

* TIMING...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD MOVE ONSHORE AND AFFECT
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE AND INTO SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER ISOLATED TOTALS IN
EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE AND OVER SOUTHEAST
COOK COUNTY.

* OTHER IMPACTS...IF THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND MOVES INLAND
INTO COOK COUNTY...THEN VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO
AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR
LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE
AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND DEPTH OF
SNOW CAN VARY GREATLY...IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$

 

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