Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 NAM drops 2-3" of fluff here with several little clippers moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 IWX WRF nudged west and targets much of northern Lake/Porter through 60 hours wrf.png Any idea if a 12 km WRF like this produces realistic QPF amounts for LES? I know the globals definitely don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And don't look now, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 through 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Any idea if a 12 km WRF like this produces realistic QPF amounts for LES? I know the globals definitely don't. They're going to be better than globals without a doubt. Some hi-res models tend to have a bit of a wet bias from my observation over the years but I'm not sure how much it may exist in this particular model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Flipping through the 00z RGEM hourly precip, it takes the band into downtown Chicago late tomorrow night/early Tuesday before coming back east. General takeaway tonight is that areas farther west may be in play for a period of snow squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 0z GFS drops another 3-4" along and south of I-70 in Ohio tomorrow night/Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 0z GFS drops another 3-4" along and south of I-70 in Ohio tomorrow night/Tuesday morning. yep, this one is starting to get my attention. We are sitting on the northern fringe here, which usually is good place to be but not in this pattern. That being said, if this can come in stronger we could do a little better. NW trends and stronger lows have been screwing us all winter....now we can finally benefit and it won't happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 ukmet... 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 jacque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow GFS quite bullish here overnight tomorrow with synoptic snow with a little lake enhancement to help out. 2-4" this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yet another clipper going south of here. Seems like we can't even get clippers anymore. What a god awful pattern this is bitter cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS definitely bullish on amounts in the area. 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hard to ignore the stronger easterly component within the boundary layer on the new model runs. Lake County IN should probably be upgraded to a watch, NAM bufkit soundings looked really impressive for GYY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'd be shocked if LOT doesn't pull the trigger on a Lake Effect Snow Watch for Lake county Indiana on the overnight update. Trends are pretty clear that much of the county stands a pretty good chance at getting dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 RGEM. Alek better be on LES watch. 3-7" in the grid for Gary now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looking like a fresh inch or two of powder here tomorrow night. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yet another clipper going south of here. Seems like we can't even get clippers anymore. What a god awful pattern this is bitter cold and dry Like I said, January is all about the cold. Our snow will come in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So the GFS give us .05-.15 of qpf from MKE south tomorrow night, possible 1-3" given ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Like I said, January is all about the cold. Our snow will come in February. Yeah I'm hopeful for February to. Early Feb offers some potential so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah I'm hopeful for February to. Early Feb offers some potential so we'll see. As I said in an earlier post, there's no way we're going to get above average snowfall or snow depth for January, so might as well cheer on the cold. There's a chance we might be able to end up with the coldest January in 20 years, following the coldest December in 13 years and the coldest November in 17 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yet another clipper going south of here. Seems like we can't even get clippers anymore. What a god awful pattern this is bitter cold and dry Late week clipper looked like our best shot but the last several runs of all the globals are vaporizing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Late week clipper looked like our best shot but the last several runs of all the globals are vaporizing it. Yep I see that. Seems like that big pig of a vortex over Quebec is mucking everything up. Go figure no -NAO and we still get screwed. Thankfully the models seems to be going more towards the pattern we saw in December so hoping for a rocking February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Late week clipper looked like our best shot but the last several runs of all the globals are vaporizing it. Hope you're enjoying the torch, Edmonton style! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Here's a hint about what LOT is thinking regarding LES...aviation update... ..... THEN THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS ARND 23-01Z...THEN SLOWLY WORK WEST AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW TO KMDW/KORD ARND 02-05Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 6z NAM is wetter here and also appears to hit the IL side a bit harder with lake enhancement/effect. Evolving situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 6z NAM is wetter here and also appears to hit the IL side a bit harder with lake enhancement/effect. Evolving situation. I was far too early on pulling the trigger. Oh, well, I'll go down with the ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I was far too early on pulling the trigger. Oh, well, I'll go down with the ship. Things changed kinda fast. Focus does appear to be a bit farther west than originally expected but we still can't completely write off a trend in the other direction. As is, besides a likely watch for Lake county, some kind of headline may eventually be needed for Cook/Will (and possibly even Kankakee pending extent of inland penetration), especially eastern parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Interesting trend in the synoptic snows tomorrow night. Few NAM runs back had hardly anything. Someone in IL/IN should squeeze out 2-3" from that if trends hold/continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Lake Effect Snow Watch extended into Lake County, IN. It will certainly be interesting to see how this unfolds. Currently looking like a spread the wealth situation where a larger area gets moderate-heavy amounts rather than one area getting dumped upon. With that said, big numbers are still within the playing field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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