Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Blue is the winner in the LAF area. The other reports I've seen are in the 4.5-5.0" range. Sometime the west side wins, sometime the east side wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 ORD is reporting MIFG (Shallow fog)...First time i've seen this. KORD 190251Z 33003KT 8SM MIFG SCT010 M10/M13 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP110 60000 I1000 I3000 T11001133 55002 Actually have the same here... Very shallow deck at the surface...Combination of FZFG and IC. Cool. How shallow we talking, like head level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I wasn't able to measure right after the snow ended, and I think there's been some settling, but I'm getting just under 6". The snow is so powdery that there are already dry lines on some of the major roads. Nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Cool. How shallow we talking, like head level? Not that shallow. I'd say up to about 50-75ft AGL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 12z GFS says watch Monday night/Tuesday for a sneaky little snow. It's "bullish", but has 0z/12z Ukie support. 12z Ukie actually looks best...dropping 1.5-2.5" here and Indy. Other models have something, but not quite as developed. Something to watch, as models tend to struggle with these impulses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Damn, jackpot for you all over there. Awesome. I'm sure it'll go a long ways in helping afterimage soothe the pain from today's IU game. Oh let me tell you, if it wasn't for that soothing snow falling during the game i might have stuck myself...what an ugly college game, gotta give NW props for great defense though.....measured late last night, pretty darn close to 6" in several spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Oh let me tell you, if it wasn't for that soothing snow falling during the game i might have stuck myself...what an ugly college game, gotta give NW props for great defense though.....measured late last night, pretty darn close to 6" in several spots. Haha, it's been a rough CBB season for both of us. Not only have my Illini lost to NW, but to effin Purdue too. This outstanding start to winter has helped me forget about that nightmare. Anyways, nice event for you and a lot of us in central Indiana. Onto to the next one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 12z UK at 48 hours. Pretty optimistic run...and it's the Ukie, but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 ORD is reporting MIFG (Shallow fog)...First time i've seen this. KORD 190251Z 33003KT 8SM MIFG SCT010 M10/M13 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP110 60000 I1000 I3000 T11001133 55002 . Had the same thing here. Was driving home from work last night. Kept using my wind shield wipers. Had no idea what it was then I realized it was fog. Was pretty annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Blowing snow continues to be a factor in the GTA as the cold front cuts through the region. Per radar, it should start snowing moderately in the GTA within the next few minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I would say 1 to 2 inches is definitely a good bet for Monday night and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 12z GFS says watch Monday night/Tuesday for a sneaky little snow. It's "bullish", but has 0z/12z Ukie support. 12z Ukie actually looks best...dropping 1.5-2.5" here and Indy. Other models have something, but not quite as developed. Something to watch, as models tend to struggle with these impulses. also, unlike this recent clipper this one may actually strengthen east....even giving the DC crowd something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 also, unlike this recent clipper this one may actually strengthen east....even giving the DC crowd something to watch. Yeah, I suspect if this is legit...DC may get some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 maybe a little lake effect for chicago THEN AFT DAYBREAK MON...GUIDANCEHAS BEGUN TO INDICATE WINDS MAY FLOP OVER TO THE NORTHEAST LATEMON MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS SCENARIOOCCURS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS PROBABLE FOR ORD/MDW/GYY AND COULDFURTHER LOWER CIGS/VSBYS MON AFTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 12z GEFS are in agreement with the Monday night/Tuesday deal. We'll see if it has legs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 12z GEFS are in agreement with the Monday night/Tuesday deal. We'll see if it has legs... I don't have a lot of confidence in amounts but 1-2" would definitely be possible if something like the GFS/UKIE verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I don't have a lot of confidence in amounts but 1-2" would definitely be possible if something like the GFS/UKIE verify. Yeah, not a big deal...but 1-2" would be my high end range. Guess it would be a so-called stat padder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 With regards to the upcoming lake effect event... LOT LAKE EFFECT LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RATHER IMPRESSIVE LAKEEFFECT SET UP IS TAKING SHAPE FROM LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTUESDAY. WINDS TURN FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ASCOLD ADVECTION SPREADS DOWN THE LAKE. LAKE-H85 DELTA-TS WILLINCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF THESPECTRUM DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLYINCREASING AS WELL. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN LAKEEFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAIN SHOW WILL GETGOING MONDAY EVENING. THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACELOW WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING. AS ARESULT...WINDS WILL TURN A BIT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGANWITH LAKE INFLUENCES WORKING TO ESTABLISH A SHARP CONVERGENT AXISOVER THE LAKE...WHICH IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE NORTHERLYFLOW AND INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. DELTA-TS INCREASE TO AROUND 22C OVER THE LAKE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTSINCREASING TO 10-12KFT LATER MONDAY EVENING...WITH MOISTURETHROUGH THE ENTIRE MIXED LAYER. ALL OF THIS POINTS TOWARDS ANINTENSE SNOW BAND BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY LATE MONDAY EVENINGCONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EVOLUTION OF THE BAND INTERMS OF LOCATION WILL BE THE CHALLENGING PART. WITH THE ABOVELARGER SCALE SET UP...PORTER COUNTY INDIANA WOULD TRADITIONALLY BEFAVORED FOR HEAVY SNOW. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORTTHIS WITH THE BAND TRANSITIONING/DEVELOPING INTO PORTER MONDAY EVENINGAND PIVOTING WESTWARD TO EASTERN LAKE COUNTY INDIANA FOR A TIMEBEFORE WOBBLING BACK TO PORTER EARLY TUESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURESTILL TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING THE NORTH FETCH LOOKS TOCONTINUE BEFORE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AND WEST DURING THEAFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE BAND MAY BE FAIRLY STATIONARYOVER PORTER OR THE PORTER/LAPORTE BORDER AREA INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY.ITS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THE MOTION OF THE BAND THIS FAR OUT BUTGIVEN THE EXPECTED LARGER SCALE SET UP THIS EVOLUTION HAS MERIT.WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR PORTER COUNTYWITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY... POTENTIALLYEXCESSIVE...AMOUNTS OF SNOW THERE. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN LAKECOUNTY SEEING THE BAND IMPACT THEM FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME AS THEWESTWARD SHIFT WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE WINDADJUSTMENTS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS BECAUSE EVEN A FEW HOURS OFSNOW COULD YIELD WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS GIVEN EXPECTEDINTENSITY. WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR LAKE FOR NOW. ALSO HAVELOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE BAND AND COULDPOTENTIALLY SEE JASPER COUNTY NEEDING A HEADLINE...PROBABLY ANADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT AS WE DO STILL HAVE SOME TIME YET.TOO EARLY FOR AMOUNT SPECIFICS GIVEN THE LOCATION DETAILS NEEDINGTO BE IRONED OUT BUT A CORRIDOR IN EXCESS OF A FOOT IN THE WATCHAREA IS PLAUSIBLE. EARLIER SINGLE BAND SET UPS THIS SEASON WITHSHALLOWER MOISTURE HAVE YIELDED SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW DRIVENBY HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25:1...WHICH ARE AREASONABLE BUT POTENTIALLY LOW ESTIMATE FOR RATIOS WITH THISEVENT. IWX ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WITH 850MBDELTA TS RISING INTO MID TO UPPER 20S AND CRITICAL 700MB DELTA TSAPPROACHING 30C. LONG NORTHERLY FETCH EXPECTED WITH ARCTIC HIGH OVERNORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS.CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE SINGLE BAND FORMING AS JUST ABOUT ALLGUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT WITH FAVORABLE SYNOPTICCONDITIONS. THE CURRENT PROBLEM IS WITH LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THEBAND AS THE LATER PERIODS OF OUR HIRES GUIDANCE JUST BEGINNING TOCAPTURE EVENT. THESE MODELS SHOW BAND PLACEMENT MONDAY NIGHT INTOEARLY TUESDAY ANYWHERE FROM EXTREME WESTERN ST. JOSEPH AND LAPORTECOUNTIES TO AS FAR WEST AS LAKE COUNTY INDIANA. EXACT LOCATION WILLDEPEND LARGELY ON STRENGTH OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND CONVERGENCEGENERATED BY THERMAL DIFFERENCES. LOCAL 12KM WRF IS ONE OF THE MOREWESTERN SOLUTIONS AND IS KICKING OUT NEARLY SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCHOF QPF. THIS MODEL ALSO SHOWS A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION IN ITS925MB OMEGA FIELD WHICH IS ALWAYS FOUND IN THESE EXTREME SINGLE BANDEVENTS. DISCUSSION WITH KLOT REVEALED THEIR 8KM LOCAL MODELGENERATING SIMILAR QPF...THREE QUARTERS...BUT A LITTLE FARTHER EASTOVER EASTERN PORTER COUNTY INTO WESTERN LAPORTE. TIME HEIGHT CROSSSECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OF ALL MODELS REVEAL A DEEP MIXEDLAYER UP TO 8KFT WITH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE PRESENT THROUGH 500MB.LOCAL 12Z WRF MODEL OMEGA FIELDS ALSO IMPRESSIVE WITH 20MICROBAR/SEC THROUGH 700MB. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW TO LIQUIDRATIOS BETWEEN 20 TO 1 AND 30 TO 1 POSSIBLE WITH GREAT DENDRITICSNOW GROWTH ZONE. COMBINATION OF ALL THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY YIELDAMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOMEWHEREOVER NORTHWEST INDIANA...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BAND REMAINS STATIONARYTHROUGH THE NIGHT. SETUP VERY SIMILAR TO PAST OPTIMAL SINGLE BANDEVENTS WHICH HAVE YIELDED SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN THE VALPO AREA ANDEXTREME WESTERN LAPORTE COUNTY. THUS ENOUGH SUPPORT HERE TO WARRANTA LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OFEVENT. WHILE ST JOSEPH COUNTY INDIANA AND BERRIEN COUNTY MICHIGANARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH...CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL BEMAINLY THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES WITH THE BESTCHANCE FOR THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 LC has such a way with words....he truly is the 1-900 dirty voice for the wx weenie: "There is a fair amount of danger involved with the accompanying surface low on Wednesday and Thursday. This feature may tap into the subtropical jet stream (see it now west of Baja California), and undergo deepening as it takes a rather unusual track from S MN into MD and DE. if so, the attendant moderate snow and gusty winds may turn into a whiteout blast along the Ohio Valley into the interstate 95 corridor above Wilmington DE. Even if the snow does not expand and intensify, the vicious blast of Arctic air behind the disturbance may drive the nocturnal 0 deg F line as far south as Washington DC by Friday morning." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Somewhere in NW IN is going to get destroyed by LES this week. Hour after hour of northerly flow with a Superior connection and up to 30:1 ratios. Possible flow interruptions and slight veering should preclude historic totals, but it should be impressive none-the-less. IWX WRF is already showing over .6" of QPF through Wednesday with the single band burying Porter Co. I remember Hoosier taking a road trip up there several years ago with a similar setup. I would love to see pics of 3" per hour rates again. hint hint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Heart of the band should only be 15-20 miles north of here, so I may take a trek into the madness. First call around here would be somewhere in the 2-5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Somewhere in NW IN is going to get destroyed by LES this week. Hour after hour of northerly flow with a Superior connection and up to 30:1 ratios. Possible flow interruptions and slight veering should preclude historic totals, but it should be impressive none-the-less. IWX WRF is already showing over .6" of QPF through Wednesday with the single band burying Porter Co. I remember Hoosier taking a road trip up there several years ago with a similar setup. I would love to see pics of 3" per hour rates again. hint hint d01_runtotal84_cwa.png I'm kinda tired of driving on snow...I don't think I could stomach being in those conditions right now. The band should really crank especially on Tuesday. Would think that some 2-3" per hour rates will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This les setup looks classic for porter/laporte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm really liking 12-18" in Valparaiso, and 20"+ between Chesterton and Michigan City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm really liking 12-18" in Valparaiso, and 20"+ between Chesterton and Michigan City. I'd lean toward those areas as well, though I do have some concerns about the band going west for a while especially with some models suggesting mesolow development. Given the expected strength, it wouldn't take long to pile up some pretty heavy amounts. Areas like Gary, Hobart, Merrillville could be in play for several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Somewhere in NW IN is going to get destroyed by LES this week. Hour after hour of northerly flow with a Superior connection and up to 30:1 ratios. Possible flow interruptions and slight veering should preclude historic totals, but it should be impressive none-the-less. IWX WRF is already showing over .6" of QPF through Wednesday with the single band burying Porter Co. I remember Hoosier taking a road trip up there several years ago with a similar setup. I would love to see pics of 3" per hour rates again. hint hint d01_runtotal84_cwa.png I'll see what I can do! I'd lean toward those areas as well, though I do have some concerns about the band going west for a while especially with some models suggesting mesolow development. Given the expected strength, it wouldn't take long to pile up some pretty heavy amounts. Areas like Gary, Hobart, Merrillville could be in play for several inches. Yeah, I definitely think the northeastern half of Lake County is in play for at least 6". With ratios > 20:1, it won't take much liquid to make that happen. We conservatively told the school districts 6"+ but as confidence increases we'll probably go all out tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 00z NAM looks a hair farther west with the LES band. Actually targets the IL/IN state line area for a while as supported by the 925/850 VV plots below. I'd rather rely on other models for placement though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 0z NAM joining the party with the next snow (tomorrow night/Tuesday). Again, it's not a lot of snow...but an inch or two not out of the question for some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 0z NAM joining the party with the next snow (tomorrow night/Tuesday). Again, it's not a lot of snow...but an inch or two not out of the question for some spots. Hopefully we can get a slight nudge north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 IWX WRF nudged west and targets much of northern Lake/Porter through 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.