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January 13-21st Clippers/Hybrids


Chicago Storm

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ORD is reporting MIFG (Shallow fog)...First time i've seen this.

 

KORD 190251Z 33003KT 8SM MIFG SCT010 M10/M13 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP110 60000 I1000 I3000 T11001133 55002

 

Actually have the same here...

 

Very shallow deck at the surface...Combination of FZFG and IC.

Cool. How shallow we talking, like head level?

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12z GFS says watch Monday night/Tuesday for a sneaky little snow. It's "bullish", but has 0z/12z Ukie support. 12z Ukie actually looks best...dropping 1.5-2.5" here and Indy. Other models have something, but not quite as developed. Something to watch, as models tend to struggle with these impulses.

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Damn, jackpot for you all over there. Awesome. 

 

I'm sure it'll go a long ways in helping afterimage soothe the pain from today's IU game.  :devilsmiley:

Oh let me tell you, if it wasn't for that soothing snow falling during the game i might have stuck myself...what an ugly college game, gotta give NW props for great defense though.....measured late last night, pretty darn close to 6" in several spots.

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Oh let me tell you, if it wasn't for that soothing snow falling during the game i might have stuck myself...what an ugly college game, gotta give NW props for great defense though.....measured late last night, pretty darn close to 6" in several spots.

 

Haha, it's been a rough CBB season for both of us. Not only have my Illini lost to NW, but to effin Purdue too. This outstanding start to winter has helped me forget about that nightmare. 

 

Anyways, nice event for you and a lot of us in central Indiana. Onto to the next one...

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ORD is reporting MIFG (Shallow fog)...First time i've seen this.

 

KORD 190251Z 33003KT 8SM MIFG SCT010 M10/M13 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP110 60000 I1000 I3000 T11001133 55002

. Had the same thing here. Was driving home from work last night. Kept using my wind shield wipers. Had no idea what it was then I realized it was fog. Was pretty annoying.
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12z GFS says watch Monday night/Tuesday for a sneaky little snow. It's "bullish", but has 0z/12z Ukie support. 12z Ukie actually looks best...dropping 1.5-2.5" here and Indy. Other models have something, but not quite as developed. Something to watch, as models tend to struggle with these impulses.

 

also, unlike this recent clipper this one may actually strengthen east....even giving the DC crowd something to watch.

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With regards to the upcoming lake effect event...

 

LOT

 

LAKE EFFECT LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A RATHER IMPRESSIVE LAKE
EFFECT SET UP IS TAKING SHAPE FROM LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS TURN FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD ADVECTION SPREADS DOWN THE LAKE. LAKE-H85 DELTA-TS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF THE
SPECTRUM DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
INCREASING AS WELL. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAIN SHOW WILL GET
GOING MONDAY EVENING. THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE MONDAY EVENING. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL TURN A BIT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN
WITH LAKE INFLUENCES WORKING TO ESTABLISH A SHARP CONVERGENT AXIS
OVER THE LAKE...WHICH IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE NORTHERLY
FLOW AND INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. DELTA-
TS INCREASE TO AROUND 22C OVER THE LAKE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
INCREASING TO 10-12KFT LATER MONDAY EVENING...WITH MOISTURE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE MIXED LAYER. ALL OF THIS POINTS TOWARDS AN
INTENSE SNOW BAND BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY LATE MONDAY EVENING
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EVOLUTION OF THE BAND IN
TERMS OF LOCATION WILL BE THE CHALLENGING PART. WITH THE ABOVE
LARGER SCALE SET UP...PORTER COUNTY INDIANA WOULD TRADITIONALLY BE
FAVORED FOR HEAVY SNOW. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THIS WITH THE BAND TRANSITIONING/DEVELOPING INTO PORTER MONDAY EVENING
AND PIVOTING WESTWARD TO EASTERN LAKE COUNTY INDIANA FOR A TIME
BEFORE WOBBLING BACK TO PORTER EARLY TUESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING THE NORTH FETCH LOOKS TO
CONTINUE BEFORE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE BAND MAY BE FAIRLY STATIONARY
OVER PORTER OR THE PORTER/LAPORTE BORDER AREA INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY.
ITS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THE MOTION OF THE BAND THIS FAR OUT BUT
GIVEN THE EXPECTED LARGER SCALE SET UP THIS EVOLUTION HAS MERIT.
WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR PORTER COUNTY
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY... POTENTIALLY
EXCESSIVE...AMOUNTS OF SNOW THERE. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN LAKE
COUNTY SEEING THE BAND IMPACT THEM FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME AS THE
WESTWARD SHIFT WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE WIND
ADJUSTMENTS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS BECAUSE EVEN A FEW HOURS OF
SNOW COULD YIELD WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS GIVEN EXPECTED
INTENSITY. WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR LAKE FOR NOW. ALSO HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE BAND AND COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE JASPER COUNTY NEEDING A HEADLINE...PROBABLY AN
ADVISORY. WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT AS WE DO STILL HAVE SOME TIME YET.
TOO EARLY FOR AMOUNT SPECIFICS GIVEN THE LOCATION DETAILS NEEDING
TO BE IRONED OUT BUT A CORRIDOR IN EXCESS OF A FOOT IN THE WATCH
AREA IS PLAUSIBLE. EARLIER SINGLE BAND SET UPS THIS SEASON WITH
SHALLOWER MOISTURE HAVE YIELDED SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW DRIVEN
BY HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25:1...WHICH ARE A
REASONABLE BUT POTENTIALLY LOW ESTIMATE FOR RATIOS WITH THIS
EVENT.

 

 

IWX

 

ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WITH 850MB
DELTA TS RISING INTO MID TO UPPER 20S AND CRITICAL 700MB DELTA TS
APPROACHING 30C. LONG NORTHERLY FETCH EXPECTED WITH ARCTIC HIGH OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE SINGLE BAND FORMING AS JUST ABOUT ALL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT WITH FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC
CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT PROBLEM IS WITH LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE
BAND AS THE LATER PERIODS OF OUR HIRES GUIDANCE JUST BEGINNING TO
CAPTURE EVENT. THESE MODELS SHOW BAND PLACEMENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY ANYWHERE FROM EXTREME WESTERN ST. JOSEPH AND LAPORTE
COUNTIES TO AS FAR WEST AS LAKE COUNTY INDIANA. EXACT LOCATION WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON STRENGTH OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE
GENERATED BY THERMAL DIFFERENCES. LOCAL 12KM WRF IS ONE OF THE MORE
WESTERN SOLUTIONS AND IS KICKING OUT NEARLY SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF QPF. THIS MODEL ALSO SHOWS A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION IN ITS
925MB OMEGA FIELD WHICH IS ALWAYS FOUND IN THESE EXTREME SINGLE BAND
EVENTS. DISCUSSION WITH KLOT REVEALED THEIR 8KM LOCAL MODEL
GENERATING SIMILAR QPF...THREE QUARTERS...BUT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
OVER EASTERN PORTER COUNTY INTO WESTERN LAPORTE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OF ALL MODELS REVEAL A DEEP MIXED
LAYER UP TO 8KFT WITH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE PRESENT THROUGH 500MB.
LOCAL 12Z WRF MODEL OMEGA FIELDS ALSO IMPRESSIVE WITH 20
MICROBAR/SEC THROUGH 700MB. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS BETWEEN 20 TO 1 AND 30 TO 1 POSSIBLE WITH GREAT DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. COMBINATION OF ALL THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY YIELD
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BAND REMAINS STATIONARY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SETUP VERY SIMILAR TO PAST OPTIMAL SINGLE BAND
EVENTS WHICH HAVE YIELDED SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN THE VALPO AREA AND
EXTREME WESTERN LAPORTE COUNTY. THUS ENOUGH SUPPORT HERE TO WARRANT
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF
EVENT. WHILE ST JOSEPH COUNTY INDIANA AND BERRIEN COUNTY MICHIGAN
ARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH...CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

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LC has such a way with words....he truly is the 1-900 dirty voice for the wx weenie:

 

"There is a fair amount of danger involved with the accompanying surface low on Wednesday and Thursday. This feature may tap into the subtropical jet stream (see it now west of Baja California), and undergo deepening as it takes a rather unusual track from S MN into MD and DE. if so, the attendant moderate snow and gusty winds may turn into a whiteout blast along the Ohio Valley into the interstate 95 corridor above Wilmington DE. Even if the snow does not expand and intensify, the vicious blast of Arctic air behind the disturbance may drive the nocturnal 0 deg F line as far south as Washington DC by Friday morning."

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Somewhere in NW IN is going to get destroyed by LES this week. Hour after hour of northerly flow with a Superior connection and up to 30:1 ratios. Possible flow interruptions and slight veering should preclude historic totals, but it should be impressive none-the-less. IWX WRF is already showing over .6" of QPF through Wednesday with the single band burying Porter Co.

 

I remember Hoosier taking a road trip up there several years ago with a similar setup. I would love to see pics of 3" per hour rates again. hint hint :P

 

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Somewhere in NW IN is going to get destroyed by LES this week. Hour after hour of northerly flow with a Superior connection and up to 30:1 ratios. Possible flow interruptions and slight veering should preclude historic totals, but it should be impressive none-the-less. IWX WRF is already showing over .6" of QPF through Wednesday with the single band burying Porter Co.

 

I remember Hoosier taking a road trip up there several years ago with a similar setup. I would love to see pics of 3" per hour rates again. hint hint :P

 

attachicon.gifd01_runtotal84_cwa.png

 

 

I'm kinda tired of driving on snow...I don't think I could stomach being in those conditions right now.  :lol:

 

The band should really crank especially on Tuesday.  Would think that some 2-3" per hour rates will occur.

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I'm really liking 12-18" in Valparaiso, and 20"+ between Chesterton and Michigan City. 

 

 

I'd lean toward those areas as well, though I do have some concerns about the band going west for a while especially with some models suggesting mesolow development.  Given the expected strength, it wouldn't take long to pile up some pretty heavy amounts.  Areas like Gary, Hobart, Merrillville could be in play for several inches. 

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Somewhere in NW IN is going to get destroyed by LES this week. Hour after hour of northerly flow with a Superior connection and up to 30:1 ratios. Possible flow interruptions and slight veering should preclude historic totals, but it should be impressive none-the-less. IWX WRF is already showing over .6" of QPF through Wednesday with the single band burying Porter Co.

 

I remember Hoosier taking a road trip up there several years ago with a similar setup. I would love to see pics of 3" per hour rates again. hint hint :P

 

attachicon.gifd01_runtotal84_cwa.png

 

I'll see what I can do!

 

 

I'd lean toward those areas as well, though I do have some concerns about the band going west for a while especially with some models suggesting mesolow development.  Given the expected strength, it wouldn't take long to pile up some pretty heavy amounts.  Areas like Gary, Hobart, Merrillville could be in play for several inches. 

 

Yeah, I definitely think the northeastern half of Lake County is in play for at least 6".  With ratios > 20:1, it won't take much liquid to make that happen.

 

We conservatively told the school districts 6"+ but as confidence increases we'll probably go all out tomorrow afternoon.

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