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January 13-21st Clippers/Hybrids


Chicago Storm

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NW IN/SW MI looks like it could be interesting in terms of lake effect early week.  May even start as a period of lake enhancement on the IL shore though that is less certain. 

 

Edit:  early look at the IWX WRF.  Surprised to see this model be that far west.

 

 

post-14-0-20893100-1390071586_thumb.png

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

1231 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2014  

   

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION  

 

1225 PM CST  

 

THE IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND THE  

CLIPPER CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE DEKALB AREA SOUTHEAST ALL THE  

WAY TO DANVILLE AND WEST LAFAYETTE...WITH A PARENT MESOSCALE  

CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON THE RADAR MOSAIC IN LASALLE COUNTY. THIS  

SNOWFALL BAND HAS HAD RATES OF 2 IN/HR BASED ON NUMEROUS REPORTS  

AND RADAR AND VISIBILITY TRENDS INDICATE THIS CONTINUES. THIS  

REMAINS DRIVEN BY STRONG MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND  

CONVERGENCE...ROBUST VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE MID- LEVELS...AND  

WELL-DEFINED FRONTONGENSIS BENEATH AN UNSTABLE LAYER. THIS APPEARS  

TO BE CONDITIONALLY SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY AND EVEN POSSIBLY  

UPRIGHT INSTABILITY THAT IS REALLY SUPPORTING THE HEAVIEST  

SNOWFALL. ALL OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE REGULAR  

BANDED SNOW...WITH THE HEAVIEST AXIS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AND  

SOUTHERN CHICAGO METRO AREA AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH 3 PM OR  

SO...PROVIDING A QUICK COUPLE INCHES AT LEAST. EVEN AS FAR NORTH  

AS THE WI STATE LINE...THERE HAVE BEEN TRANSIENT RADAR  

ENHANCEMENTS REFLECTING BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN HEAVY  

AXIS. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A  

MILE IN THESE AT TIMES.  

 

AFTER 4-5 PM OR SO...THE HEAVIEST RATES SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST  

WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND SNOW WILL BE FORCED MORE BY THE  

700MB TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD.  

 

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR  

FORECAST SNOW FALL AMOUNTS GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL  

LIKELY BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS AROUND SIX INCHES...NAMELY WESTERN  

LEE AND LASALLE COUNTIES WHICH ALREADY HAD A HEAVY BOUT...AND WILL  

REMAIN IN A FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR SNOW AS THE CLIPPER PIVOTS TO THE  

SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA BEFORE SHIFTING EAST.  

 

WINDS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP A LITTLE MORE IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA AS  

THE LOW QUICKLY APPROACHES. THERE PROBABILITY IS SOME BLOWING  

SNOW IN RESPONSE WITHIN OPEN AREAS.  

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NW IN/SW MI looks like it could be interesting in terms of lake effect early week.  May even start as a period of lake enhancement on the IL shore though that is less certain. 

 

Could be a prolonged single band setup, although veering may not allow prolonged residence time in any one location. May be some impressive totals though, something to watch.

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NW IN/SW MI looks like it could be interesting in terms of lake effect early week.  May even start as a period of lake enhancement on the IL shore though that is less certain. 

 

Edit:  early look at the IWX WRF.  Surprised to see this model be that far west.

 

 

I've been watching this potential the past day or two, and it certainly looks like it could produce. 

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NW IN/SW MI looks like it could be interesting in terms of lake effect early week.  May even start as a period of lake enhancement on the IL shore though that is less certain

 

Edit:  early look at the IWX WRF.  Surprised to see this model be that far west.

 

 

attachicon.gifd01_runtotal84_syn.png

 

Winds become NE for a time Monday night into  early Tuesday morning between 900 and 800mb, not sure if that would be enough for something to brush the western shoreline but the 12z GFS was showing some qpf around here at that time frame and with the arctic air mass seeping in, things become quite unstable.

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