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January 13-21st Clippers/Hybrids


Chicago Storm

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I honestly think LAF is good for 4-5" with some lolli 6's in the area. We're talking at least 20:1. Expecting similar results for my side of the state.

 

I'm still liking the call I made on Thursday for LAF.

 

However, I was never really expecting to receive the amounts of those farther west due to opening of the system, but with the slight southward shift from the models the past several runs, I look to get fringed and will be more than happy to see 2".

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LOT update

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
800 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
758 AM CST

JUST A QUICK UPDATE...AS HEAVY SNOW IS EVOLVING EAST SOUTHEAST
AND IS PROBABLE TO TAKE EVEN BETTER SHAPE INTO A NORTH-TO-SOUTH
BAND OR BANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN NORTHWEST IL AND TOWARD
THE I-39 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF ROCKFORD.

UPSTREAM 12Z MPX SOUNDING INDICATED IMPRESSIVE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES AT 650MB AND ABOVE...WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATING THIS
INSTABILITY BEING TAPPED WITH CONVECTIVE-LIKE ECHOES ACROSS
CENTRAL IA RACING ESE IN THE CLIPPER "WARM SECTOR". THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE WITHIN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN
BAND NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI...AND THIS BAND IS SLOWING AND INCREASING
IN REFLECTIVITY...MEANING THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD THIS WILL STALL AND
REALLY PUT DOWN SOME IMPRESSIVE RATES OF AT LEAST 1.5 IN/HR PLUS AS
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. UPSTREAM RATES OF ONE IN/HR PLUS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS IN A SWATH ALL THE WAY BACK TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER LAST NIGHT...AND THIS IS A GOOD TYPE OF EVENT
TO EXTRAPOLATE THESE FORWARD PARALLEL TO THE CLIPPER PATH. THE
NARRE-TL AND ALMOST ALL OTHER HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH
RATES/REFLECTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST IL AND INTO THE I-39 CORRIDOR
SOUTH OF ROCKFORD BY 10 AM. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AND IS WELL
COVERED IN THE FORECAST WITH THE HEAVY SNOW AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS AFD. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COVERAGE LOOKS
FINE...BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR WINNEBAGO AND BOONE COUNTIES AS
MODEST RATES ARE LIKELY AT TIMES BEGINNING IN A COUPLE/FEW HOURS.

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Looking at the current radar, I think Chicago is going to do well. 

 

As for LAF, ugly looking dry slot to the west of the first band. I'm thinking we'll come in on the lower end of totals, more like 3" than 5"...and places just to the north/northeast of here "jackpot" in Indiana.

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