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January 13-21st Clippers/Hybrids


Chicago Storm

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I don't understand the evening update from IND.  They mentioned the latest NAM cutting snow totals but a comparison of the 00z NAM and 18z NAM doesn't really show that.  00z increased amounts a tad in some locations (like here) and decreased a tad in others so I think it's a wash more or less.

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Don't think this is done moving north. First and final call for Chicagoland...ORD: 1.8"

                                                                                                                     MDW: 2.7"

 

 

If it moves north then those calls will be too low.

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3z RAP looks north as well.

Taft showed microcast that had less than a half inch everywhere north of 80....does that guy even look at other models/trend? Geesh.

I'll say 2.6" for here.

If there's going to be any 6"+ lolli's I'll say northeast IA down to Cycloneville/LaSalle

While I dislike Taft. His trend for lower is correct. Of course, that's based on his conservative approach not reality.

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1.3" of snow here this afternoon/evening...Off 0.01" liquid. 130:1 ratio. :lmao:

 

Combine that with the 0.6" from yesterday for a two day muti-wave "clipper" total of 1.9"

Wow thats insane. The most I have ever seen was 0.8" snow on 0.01" water. We had 0.28" water in our 3.4" of snow yesterday/last night, though just a T in this evenings 0.1".

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So for the overall progression here tomorrow, I would expect snow to develop perhaps very late morning but more likely early afternoon.  The VV gradient is quite sharp and the snow should come in like a wall with conditions likely going downhill very quickly within the first hour of onset.  I think we rip with rates near or perhaps over 1" per hour for about 3 hours in the afternoon, surrounded by lighter snow before and after. 

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So for the overall progression here tomorrow, I would expect snow to develop perhaps very late morning but more likely early afternoon.  The VV gradient is quite sharp and the snow should come in like a wall with conditions likely going downhill very quickly within the first hour of onset.  I think we rip with rates near or perhaps over 1" per hour for about 3 hours in the afternoon, surrounded by lighter snow before and after. 

 

And your final call is....

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Well I had 3-4" earlier.  I'm on the fence between that and 4-5" so somewhere around 4" seems safe.  If we get caught under really heavy banding or the heavy banding is a bit more persistent then we may make a run at 5"

 

Sounds good.

 

FWIW, 0z NMM ticked a bit north with the heavy band...which we know get into to (was south of us on the 12z run).

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In the process of undergoing top down saturation early this morning.  Snowing about 1500-2000ft agl.  RAP shows almost 0.3" of qpf for the QCA.  Probably a bit overdone, but if some decent banding can develop as the H7 low passes overhead it's not out of the question.  Gonna ride last night's call for 3-4" for here for now.

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