Hoosier Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I don't understand the evening update from IND. They mentioned the latest NAM cutting snow totals but a comparison of the 00z NAM and 18z NAM doesn't really show that. 00z increased amounts a tad in some locations (like here) and decreased a tad in others so I think it's a wash more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 the snow that is falling this evening doesn't even look real it's so dry. Looks like paper flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 4km NAM I think Cyclone is golden with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 0z GFS snowfall is basically similar to NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 the snow that is falling this evening doesn't even look real it's so dry. Looks like paper flakes. lol...yeah my dog cleaned off half the driveway just running out to the mailbox to do his thing....wooooosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 1z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 00z GFS has a couple spots of .25" qpf in IL/IN..that is the first time at least on the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Don't think this is done moving north. First and final call for Chicagoland...ORD: 1.8" MDW: 2.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Don't think this is done moving north. First and final call for Chicagoland...ORD: 1.8" MDW: 2.7" If it moves north then those calls will be too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 If it moves north then those calls will be too low. Was just about to say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Don't think this is done moving north. First and final call for Chicagoland...ORD: 1.8" MDW: 2.7" Those are high. Misread your post. If it heads north those totals would be low. Jackpot will be 4-5. But I think chi town is on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Think I'll bump my call from early this morning of 2-3" to 3-4" for here. Narrow corridor, so it's a bit tricky, but feel pretty decent about this one. Love how the low tries to close off up to almost H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 3z RAP looks north as well. Taft showed microcast that had less than a half inch everywhere north of 80....does that guy even look at other models/trend? Geesh. I'll say 2.6" for here. If there's going to be any 6"+ lolli's I'll say northeast IA down to Cycloneville/LaSalle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 3z RAP looks north as well. Taft showed microcast that had less than a half inch everywhere north of 80....does that guy even look at other models/trend? Geesh. I'll say 2.6" for here. If there's going to be any 6"+ lolli's I'll say northeast IA down to Cycloneville/LaSalle While I dislike Taft. His trend for lower is correct. Of course, that's based on his conservative approach not reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Think I'll bump my call from early this morning of 2-3" to 3-4" for here. Narrow corridor, so it's a bit tricky, but feel pretty decent about this one. Love how the low tries to close off up to almost H5. Good luck. I'm pulling for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 how is his trend for lower amounts correct when the latest runs are coming north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Good luck. I'm pulling for you. Thanks, you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 1.3" of snow here this afternoon/evening...Off 0.01" liquid. 130:1 ratio. Combine that with the 0.6" from yesterday for a two day muti-wave "clipper" total of 1.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 1.3" of snow here this afternoon/evening...Off 0.01" liquid. 130:1 ratio. Combine that with the 0.6" from yesterday for a two day muti-wave "clipper" total of 1.9" Good lord. I had 1.2" which makes 31" on the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 1.3" of snow here this afternoon/evening...Off 0.01" liquid. 130:1 ratio. Combine that with the 0.6" from yesterday for a two day muti-wave "clipper" total of 1.9" Wow thats insane. The most I have ever seen was 0.8" snow on 0.01" water. We had 0.28" water in our 3.4" of snow yesterday/last night, though just a T in this evenings 0.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 So for the overall progression here tomorrow, I would expect snow to develop perhaps very late morning but more likely early afternoon. The VV gradient is quite sharp and the snow should come in like a wall with conditions likely going downhill very quickly within the first hour of onset. I think we rip with rates near or perhaps over 1" per hour for about 3 hours in the afternoon, surrounded by lighter snow before and after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 So for the overall progression here tomorrow, I would expect snow to develop perhaps very late morning but more likely early afternoon. The VV gradient is quite sharp and the snow should come in like a wall with conditions likely going downhill very quickly within the first hour of onset. I think we rip with rates near or perhaps over 1" per hour for about 3 hours in the afternoon, surrounded by lighter snow before and after. And your final call is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 And your final call is.... Well I had 3-4" earlier. I'm on the fence between that and 4-5" so somewhere around 4" seems safe. If we get caught under really heavy banding or the heavy banding is a bit more persistent then we may make a run at 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Well I had 3-4" earlier. I'm on the fence between that and 4-5" so somewhere around 4" seems safe. If we get caught under really heavy banding or the heavy banding is a bit more persistent then we may make a run at 5" Sounds good. FWIW, 0z NMM ticked a bit north with the heavy band...which we know get into to (was south of us on the 12z run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 pretty impressive pressure rise/fall couplet currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Sfc low is down to 995mb via the BAC metar ob west of Fargo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Animated gif off the 6z NAM looping 1hr snowfall totals from 13z-22z giving you a since of the hourly rates possible with this thing as each hour the max is between 1.1"-1.5". Pretty cool to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 In the process of undergoing top down saturation early this morning. Snowing about 1500-2000ft agl. RAP shows almost 0.3" of qpf for the QCA. Probably a bit overdone, but if some decent banding can develop as the H7 low passes overhead it's not out of the question. Gonna ride last night's call for 3-4" for here for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 LOT extended the WWA north a row of counties and put 'heavy snow' wording in the point. This still looks a little too SW for mby but I"m on the fringe. I'll go 2.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Snow began about 15 min ago, and is picking up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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