toronto blizzard Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I have a strange inkling that the "worst of winter" is over for us Toronto folks...Wayyyy to early to say that especially since we aren't at the halfway point of winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 As far as average temperatures, this week holds the coldest ones. From that perspective, this region is pretty much at the mid point of winter. Snowfall wise I would say the 20-25th of this month would be the mid point. 18z NAM It's actually showing a mix this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Given that the upper wave that will produce the Tuesday clipper is currently south of Kodiak AK (PADQ) in the GOA, it's pretty likely that there will be changes in track and timing once it's finally sampled by some of the British Columbia RAOBS tomorrow morning. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Do you mean 0.08" QPF? I don't think the Euro is showing 0.8" QPF for anyone. At the time of that post, Euro had 0.8 for UGN..now down to 0.2" here..think jackpot moved to central WI and dropped to 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Definitely a WI and MI clipper. Not going to expect anymore than an inch here. GRB is going to go with a WWA for the southern part of its cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 As far as average temperatures, this week holds the coldest ones. From that perspective, this region is pretty much at the mid point of winter. Snowfall wise I would say the 20-25th of this month would be the mid point. From a daily average high/low perspective, January 7th-31st is the coldest for Detroit. From a snowfall perspective, the mid-point of the season is January 26th The midpoint of met winter is January 15th, the mid-point of astronomical winter is February 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 After examining various convective parameters, it seems like the NAM is producing some high total totals. Based on how total totals are calculated, this is largely due to the temperature difference between 850 and 500 mb, but 850 mb dewpoints are also part of the equation. Edit: 18z NAM actually has TT peaking in the upper 50s here on Tuesday. I've hardly ever seen that on a cold/winter sounding. Haha haven't seen the TT index mentioned on a forum since I've been on them. Nice to see it on something that's not in a meteorology book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Haha haven't seen the TT index mentioned on a forum since I've been on them. Nice to see it on something that's not in a meteorology book I've actually seen Hoosier mention total totals before. I've also seen a couple of mets mention them in discos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 LOT's take on this system. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE HEELS OF A WEAK MID-LVLRIDGE THAT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AFT MIDNIGHT MON NGT OVERTHE CHICAGO AREA. THIS MAY AID IN SOME DEGREE OF ENHANCEMENT TO THEAPPROACHING SHORTWAVE EARLY TUE. THE CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCHISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS NEXT WAVE...BUT AT THIS TIMEMOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO NOT BE OVERWHELMING. TEMPS SHUD BE COLDENOUGH THAT ALL PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIGHT SNOW...WITH AROUND ADUSTING SOUTH OF I-80. NORTH OF THIS LINE AROUND AN INCH APPEARSLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TIMING HAS SLOWED...AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKRIDGE LATE MON NGT. SO HAVE PUSHED PRECIP OFF JUST A FEW HOURS UNTILTHE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUE.LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THRU TUE MORNING...WITH A DRY SLOT BRINGINGA BREAK TO ACCUMULATIONS EARLY AFTN. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILLQUICKLY BRING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUEAFTN...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCHTHRU EARLY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The two clippers should be pretty windy systems, for many areas in the Midwest. More nasty wind chills for WI/MN/IA. The wind chills shouldn't hit -40 this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 From a daily average high/low perspective, January 7th-31st is the coldest for Detroit. From a snowfall perspective, the mid-point of the season is January 26th The midpoint of met winter is January 15th, the mid-point of astronomical winter is February 4th. Feb. 4th Buffalos average high temperature goes from 31 to 32 and begins to increase 1-2 degrees each week throughout February. We have 3 more weeks of the coldest weather here. Snowfall wise our peak is Late November to late January which correlates to Lake Erie freezing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 From a daily average high/low perspective, January 7th-31st is the coldest for Detroit. From a snowfall perspective, the mid-point of the season is January 26th The midpoint of met winter is January 15th, the mid-point of astronomical winter is February 4th. Feb. 4th Buffalos average high temperature goes from 31 to 32 and begins to increase 1-2 degrees throughout February. We have 3 more weeks of the coldest weather here. Snowfall wise our peak is Late November to late January which correlates to Lake Erie freezing over. Interesting. It looks like the further west you go the quicker winter is to break through the mid point temperature wise. 17-18th the averages are at the bottom: 26°/13°, then by the 2/1 they are: 30°/15°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Interesting. It looks like the further west you go the quicker winter is to break through the mid point temperature wise. 17-18th the averages are at the bottom: 26°/13°, then by the 2/1 they are: 30°/15°. Yeah stats are right here. http://www.weather.com/weather/wxclimatology/daily/USNY0181 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 0z NAM came in stronger/wetter and maybe a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 0z NAM came in stronger/wetter and maybe a bit south. Sig hit for the GRB area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 0z, 12km NAM really hammers Sheboygan, Manitowoc area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Hopefully the other 00z models follow suite...NAM looked much better at 500/850 compared to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Wave still won't be sampled till the 12z runs so we will see how interesting this gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Interesting. It looks like the further west you go the quicker winter is to break through the mid point temperature wise. 17-18th the averages are at the bottom: 26°/13°, then by the 2/1 they are: 30°/15°. No way you have an average max temp of 26º on Jan 17-18. That means your on par with La Crosse at that point...a far colder place than yours. You're most likely closer to MKE, ORD, and RFD in that timeframe. MKE: 29º ORD: 31º RFD: 29º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 No way you have an average max temp of 26º on Jan 17-18. That means your on par with La Crosse at that point...a far colder place than yours. You're most likely closer to MKE, ORD, and RFD in that timeframe. MKE: 29º ORD: 31º RFD: 29º Avg at UGN is 31 (For today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 No way you have an average max temp of 26º on Jan 17-18. That means your on par with La Crosse at that point...a far colder place than yours. You're most likely closer to MKE, ORD, and RFD in that timeframe. MKE: 29º ORD: 31º RFD: 29º That's UGN's average. There records don't go back as far. ...That's strange, I'm not sure where I got those averages from. I just looked at UGN's average as they are indeed higher. Well I'll have to fix that. --- 4km NAM coming in the same as the 12km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 No way you have an average max temp of 26º on Jan 17-18. That means your on par with La Crosse at that point...a far colder place than yours. You're most likely closer to MKE, ORD, and RFD in that timeframe. MKE: 29º ORD: 31º RFD: 29º Never underestimate the Mt Geos effect lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I only had January messed up, every other month is fine. ok... 4km NAM through 54 hours. All 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Never underestimate the Mt Geos effect lol. 1-3 here...and just when i got my driveway totally clear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 1-3 here...and just when i got my driveway totally clear... Is the snow grungy looking up there? I see LSE is at just 14.9" on the season but still 6" OTG with very little new snow recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 0z GFS also stronger/wetter but still tracking the low across southern WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 995mb low on the GFS, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 > 72 hour GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 GGEM probably a bit too far north. Bo would like this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 GGEM probably a bit too far north. Bo would like this though. No, it would just be another 'boring' 3-6" of snow for him. Ho hum (or bah humbug). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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