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January 13-21st Clippers/Hybrids


Chicago Storm

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If this thing wouldn't weaken/open up quite as quickly I'd be bullish on widespread high end advisory/low end warning amounts around here.

 

Maybe it won't? These impulses lately have had some bite to them, most of the time in localized areas I guess. But I wouldn't be shocked if this one has some surprises with it.

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Maybe it won't? These impulses lately have had some bite to them, most of the time in localized areas I guess. But I wouldn't be shocked if this one has some surprises with it.

 

Well, what NorthernIN said above is encouraging.  I could be having selective memory but it seems like models do tend to weaken these a little too fast sometimes. 

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Well, what NorthernIN said above is encouraging.  I could be having selective memory but it seems like models do tend to weaken these a little too fast sometimes. 

 

Absolutely. Always nice to have his input. 

 

Seems like it can go either way.

 

It may snow a little...it may snow a lot.

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Maybe it won't? These impulses lately have had some bite to them, most of the time in localized areas I guess. But I wouldn't be shocked if this one has some surprises with it.

 

surprises are always possible in these nw flow situations.  Who'd of thought Dayton would pick up 4" this morning along with isolated places not too far from here....and that wasn't even a 'clipper'.

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This morning's LOT discussion was a bit bullish, the afternoon one has come down a little.

 

 

 

SATURDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH MODEST
ACCUMULATION APPEARING LIKELY. A 130KT JET DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A POTENT H5 VORT MAX AT THE NOSE OF THE JET WILL RACE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKING A LOOK FOR THE HOOK ON THE PV1.5 SURFACE...A TROP FOLD
EXTENDS DOWN TO ALMOST 600 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST
PRESSURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK. ISENTROPIC SURFACES SIMILARLY INDICATE TIGHTEST
PACKING IN THE FAR WEST/SOUTH CWA WITH THE BEST FOCUSED ASCENT
AND RESULTING PRECIP AXIS EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY DIXON ILLINOIS TO
FOWLER INDIANA. IN ADDITION...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW AN AREA OF
STRONGER F-GEN TRANSLATING ALONG THAT SAME LINE WITH NEGATIVE
SATURATED EPV RIGHT ON TOP OF THE LAYER OF BEST F-GEN...INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP VERTICAL RESPONSE AND BANDED SNOWFALL WITH
UNEVEN DISTRIBUTION OF THE SNOW TOTALS. UTILIZED A NAM/GFS QPF
BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS
AROUND 15-16:1...CAME UP WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
DIXON TO FOWLER LINE...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES TO THE NORTH. THESE
AMOUNTS LINE UP WELL WITH GARCIA METHOD WHICH RESULTS IN ROUGHLY 3-4
INCHES...AND SREF PLUMES. AGAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE
BANDING...THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6
INCHES WITHIN THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTH PORTION OF
THE CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO
5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS.
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Last night's clipper dropped about 2" of snow in my north Toronto neighbourhood. Looks a lot better out there now. I have a 4" snowpack now, with 2" of that being a glacier.

 

That has to be one of the better numbers in the city right now.

 

Downtown has maybe 0.5" of glacier left in some places with about 1" of snow tops.

 

North Toronto has about 1" of glacier and 1.5" of snow cover.

 

I'm starving for more than 6" of snowfall in under a 48 hour period.

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Evidently there was some thunder in Belmont County, OH (along the Ohio River northeast of Parkersburg, WV) a little bit ago with that "squall line" of heavy snow. It's snowing half decently in Athens and we did have a brief but pretty heavy squall earlier. Ground is somewhat whitish. It got up to 40 earlier which didn't help.

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