buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 For what it's worth, 18z NAM much wetter for tomorrow, but does that really mean anything????? if it was alone it wouldn't mean anything....but since it matches up with the 12z euro maybe it does.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 if it was alone it wouldn't mean anything....but since it matches up with the 12z euro maybe it does.? Ahh, the 'ole Euro/NAM rule in full effect? Hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Just a minor point of contention with the 18z NAM. The precip shield is oriented a bit differently but not sure the track is really any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Just a minor point of contention with the 18z NAM. The precip shield is oriented a bit differently but not sure the track is really any different. yea, I should say the swath of precip is further northeast not the low track. Either way it matches better now with what the euro was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If this thing wouldn't weaken/open up quite as quickly I'd be bullish on widespread high end advisory/low end warning amounts around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If this thing wouldn't weaken/open up quite as quickly I'd be bullish on widespread high end advisory/low end warning amounts around here. I think models are little quick with this weakening/opening...just a feeling given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If this thing wouldn't weaken/open up quite as quickly I'd be bullish on widespread high end advisory/low end warning amounts around here. Maybe it won't? These impulses lately have had some bite to them, most of the time in localized areas I guess. But I wouldn't be shocked if this one has some surprises with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Maybe it won't? These impulses lately have had some bite to them, most of the time in localized areas I guess. But I wouldn't be shocked if this one has some surprises with it. Well, what NorthernIN said above is encouraging. I could be having selective memory but it seems like models do tend to weaken these a little too fast sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Well, what NorthernIN said above is encouraging. I could be having selective memory but it seems like models do tend to weaken these a little too fast sometimes. Seems like it can go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Well, what NorthernIN said above is encouraging. I could be having selective memory but it seems like models do tend to weaken these a little too fast sometimes. Absolutely. Always nice to have his input. Seems like it can go either way. It may snow a little...it may snow a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 still kind of a yawner....as Hoosier said, if it can hold together.....???who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 still kind of a yawner....as Hoosier said, if it can hold together.....???who knows With more realistic ratios than shown it will be a moderate event for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 cyclone's probably going to pull his hair out. Seems like he's been near the edge with tight gradients way too much this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Maybe it won't? These impulses lately have had some bite to them, most of the time in localized areas I guess. But I wouldn't be shocked if this one has some surprises with it. surprises are always possible in these nw flow situations. Who'd of thought Dayton would pick up 4" this morning along with isolated places not too far from here....and that wasn't even a 'clipper'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 cyclone's probably going to pull his hair out. Seems like he's been near the edge with tight gradients way too much this winter. I'm really rooting for him with this one. Clippers tend to be his bread and butter...or used to anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 These clippers always seem to be a bit more dynamic than the models lead us to believe. Its going to be a quick hitter, probably no more than 6 hours of snow or less at any location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Absolutely. Always nice to have his input. It may snow a little...it may snow a lot. haha but seriously, if anything we've seen drying trends with clippers inside 24 hours this year. This latest batch has been a little more feisty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Might pick up a half inch or so here as this slow moving area of snow works its way down across northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 This morning's LOT discussion was a bit bullish, the afternoon one has come down a little. SATURDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH MODESTACCUMULATION APPEARING LIKELY. A 130KT JET DIGGING INTO THE UPPERMIDWEST WITH A POTENT H5 VORT MAX AT THE NOSE OF THE JET WILL RACESOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.TAKING A LOOK FOR THE HOOK ON THE PV1.5 SURFACE...A TROP FOLDEXTENDS DOWN TO ALMOST 600 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BESTPRESSURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOISINCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THE SURFACE LOW ISEXPECTED TO TRACK. ISENTROPIC SURFACES SIMILARLY INDICATE TIGHTESTPACKING IN THE FAR WEST/SOUTH CWA WITH THE BEST FOCUSED ASCENTAND RESULTING PRECIP AXIS EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY DIXON ILLINOIS TOFOWLER INDIANA. IN ADDITION...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW AN AREA OFSTRONGER F-GEN TRANSLATING ALONG THAT SAME LINE WITH NEGATIVESATURATED EPV RIGHT ON TOP OF THE LAYER OF BEST F-GEN...INDICATINGTHE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP VERTICAL RESPONSE AND BANDED SNOWFALL WITHUNEVEN DISTRIBUTION OF THE SNOW TOTALS. UTILIZED A NAM/GFS QPFBLEND FOR THIS PERIOD...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE SNOW RATIOSAROUND 15-16:1...CAME UP WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THEDIXON TO FOWLER LINE...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES TO THE NORTH. THESEAMOUNTS LINE UP WELL WITH GARCIA METHOD WHICH RESULTS IN ROUGHLY 3-4INCHES...AND SREF PLUMES. AGAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALEBANDING...THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6INCHES WITHIN THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTH PORTION OFTHE CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Last night's clipper dropped about 2" of snow in my north Toronto neighbourhood. Looks a lot better out there now. I have a 4" snowpack now, with 2" of that being a glacier. That has to be one of the better numbers in the city right now. Downtown has maybe 0.5" of glacier left in some places with about 1" of snow tops. North Toronto has about 1" of glacier and 1.5" of snow cover. I'm starving for more than 6" of snowfall in under a 48 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Might pick up a half inch or so here as this slow moving area of snow works its way down across northern IL. Over. Returns are meh, but snow is decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Snow in ohio almost going to make it up here on the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Snow in ohio almost going to make it up here on the east side. So close, that is a nice little setup down there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 So close, that is a nice little setup down there too.Yup. Easily 1-2 inches an hour in that band. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 -SN here in Racine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 When is the last time a clipper dumped more than 4-5" of snow around here? Must've been pre-2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Evidently there was some thunder in Belmont County, OH (along the Ohio River northeast of Parkersburg, WV) a little bit ago with that "squall line" of heavy snow. It's snowing half decently in Athens and we did have a brief but pretty heavy squall earlier. Ground is somewhat whitish. It got up to 40 earlier which didn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 18z GFS. Cyclone, LAF still looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 When is the last time a clipper dumped more than 4-5" of snow around here? Must've been pre-2011 Probably the January 2005 super-clipper. Unless there's a patently more obvious one that I'm glossing right over. Clippers just don't produce here anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Probably the January 2005 super-clipper. Unless there's a patently more obvious one that I'm glossing right over. Clippers just don't produce here anymore.Where in Edmonton lol just kidding. How are you enjoying the warm wx out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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