Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Only 1-3" forecasted here now. NAM showing a complete miss here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 the little area moving up thru cincy looks really interesting. ILN mentioned thunder and put up wwa for counties just to our south and southwest. Ironically one of the most played down windows during this clipper parade might end up being the most fruitful for us here in central OH....probably will get more snow from this incoming burst than the Saturday clipper. To be fair to ILN, it was very poorly modeled. Lets hope tomorrow's doesn't fall apart like the models are suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 To be fair to ILN, it was very poorly modeled. Lets hope tomorrow's doesn't fall apart like the models are suggesting. yea, I wasn't beating on ILN it did kind of pop up out of nowhere. As far as Saturday, meh, I was never really too excited for that one outside of a 1 to locally 3 type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Latest NAM actually spits out a narrow swath of 0.5" liquid right through Cleveland by late afternoon. Surprise 4-7" tonight? It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. The snow looks to be poised to head right up the I-71 corridor this afternoon and models showed it intensifying some possibly due to modest instability developing under the trough aloft this afternoon. The vort itself in the mid-levels is still moving south of east so I can't help but think the snow may get a shove to the east this afternoon...we'll see. Could briefly get really interesting up there. The SPC has parts of SE OH, WV and SW PA in a general thunder area for today. You can see Lake Erie through the clouds right now and there's plenty of open water, especially closer to the southern shoreline. If the winds go WNW behind this little system there could be a few hours of lake enhancement. I'd say 1-3" is the safe forecast for the Cleveland metro...but it's interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Will be watching that piece of energy very closely as well. Over here, would be a late night/early morning event, if it can push north far enough like the rap and nam wrf are suggesting. Could be pretty potent looking on radar. image.jpg The 12z NAM spits out >0.10" for the GTA tonight. 1" fell overnight downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 yea, I wasn't beating on ILN it did kind of pop up out of nowhere. As far as Saturday, meh, I was never really too excited for that one outside of a 1 to locally 3 type event. CLE just updated their AFD, no changes to forecast or mention of this impending snow. I thought for sure they'd mention a quick hitting and narrow 2-4" band. There'll likely be advisories needed if this plays out as some hi res guidance suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 4km NAM for the entire sub forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 4km NAM for the entire sub forum Wow. That's even juicier. Looks like a .5" maxima just northeast of Columbus and then a good 0.5-0.7" swath through the heart of Cleveland. Would be incredible if that verifies this afternoon / tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I think that includes what is falling today. I am epicenter to the blob coming up through Southwest Ohio. Incredible snow. Very heavy for the last half hour. I would guess about 2 inches. Snow globe snow....no wind....piling up fast. Hardest...heaviest snow of the year...in fact in many a year. Hope the guys Northeast from here get experience this. Bitter cold coming in on its heals so it will be around for the cold blast next week and beyond! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emmett Brown Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Nice fat flakes and 1/2 to 3/4 mile visibility here now. A decent band has set up in SE WI, and we are starting to get some accumulation. Bummer model trends for SE WI for tomorrow's clipper. Seems to be drying out and heading south. I'm new to these parts... moved here from FL over the summer. The bitter cold of last week certainly was a test for this former Floridian. On the up side, these clippers are kind of like tracking formative Tropical cyclones (purely from a fun perspective that is). The models have a tough time with them, and you are never sure where the action is going to set up. Also, so far, most of the actual results have been different than what the models portrayed, even within 24 hours of the event... so you just don't always know what will happen. Very cool stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 We've seen this so many times. This will be further north than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Got 2.0" here last night from the clipper. Not bad. Atleast now the snowpack looks better than it did before, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 We've seen this so many times. This will be further north than modeled. doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Would never know snow was falling nearby. Bright and sunny in Racine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I think we are good for 3-4" from the Saturday clipper and would not rule out going over 4". Here's what IND had to say: ..... POTENT UPPER LOW ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE WAVE WILL DIVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY...ROTATING INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO ALIGNMENT ON THE CLIPPER...WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AND TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW RAPIDLY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVES. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO OVERPERFORM CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED SNOW RATIOS...THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING ALOFT...PRESENCE OF A DEFORMATION AXIS SETTING UP AND LIKELIHOOD OF A MODEST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION IN TANDEM WITH THE DEEPEST LIFT. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE BEST FORCING ALIGNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO TAKE PLACE ALONG AND NORTH OF A CRAWFORDSVILLE-INDY- RUSHVILLE LINE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. SNOW RATIOS MAY BE NEAR 20 TO 1 AT THE ONSET...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SETTLE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 18/15 TO 1 FOR MUCH OF THE DURATION. HAVE PLACED TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN THE STRONGER BAND AS THE SURFACE WAVE PIVOTS RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HWO BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Hi-res models seem to be farther south for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 12z NAM/GFS/Euro all agree on .15"-.20" liquid at ARR. 2-3" looks like a good call unless we get a more southerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Last night's clipper dropped about 2" of snow in my north Toronto neighbourhood. Looks a lot better out there now. I have a 4" snowpack now, with 2" of that being a glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Ended up with a very surprising 4 inches this morning (Friday 1/17) into early afternoon in the Dayton area (Bellbrook). Most came down in about a 45 minute period. Huge flakes....no wind....and as heavy as I have ever seen. Then in an instant wind picked up...dendrites shrunk...and you couldn't see 50 feet for about ten minutes. Still some showers and flurries. A big time over performer here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Ended up with a very surprising 4 inches this morning (Friday 1/17) into early afternoon in the Dayton area (Bellbrook). Most came down in about a 45 minute period. Huge flakes....no wind....and as heavy as I have ever seen. Then in an instant wind picked up...dendrites shrunk...and you couldn't see 50 feet for about ten minutes. Still some showers and flurries. A big time over performer here! we got bent over, split, and dry-humped here in cmh. betcha not even half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 IND calling for 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Around 2" of snow the last 2 days. System Sat aftn/eve originally looked really good here...not so much anymore. Still..can't complain as it has actually been a real winter so far in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Ended up with a very surprising 4 inches this morning (Friday 1/17) into early afternoon in the Dayton area (Bellbrook). Most came down in about a 45 minute period. Huge flakes....no wind....and as heavy as I have ever seen. Then in an instant wind picked up...dendrites shrunk...and you couldn't see 50 feet for about ten minutes. Still some showers and flurries. A big time over performer here! 'grats man. Nothing better than a sweet surprise like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 we got bent over, split, and dry-humped here in cmh. betcha not even half an inch. Awful. Friend of mine in Marysville got 4 inches. For such a great winter this winter sucks! I know, I know, take it to the complaint thread. That 22.3 in CMH is so deceiving too. Bunch of nickel and dimers. Ugh!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Awful. Friend of mine in Marysville got 4 inches. For such a great winter this winter sucks! I know, I know, take it to the complaint thread. That 22.3 in CMH is so deceiving too. Bunch of nickel and dimers. Ugh!!!!!!! are you kidding???? Marysville got 4"?....lol....unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 are you kidding???? Marysville got 4"?....lol....unreal. Yep. That's unofficial, but still. It probably includes last night's little bit too. Well, maybe get the over performer tomorrow. yeah, right! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Yep. That's unofficial, but still. It probably includes last night's little bit too. Well, maybe get the over performer tomorrow. yeah, right! LOL For what it's worth, 18z NAM much wetter for tomorrow, but does that really mean anything????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 hmmm, 18z nam is pulling the clipper back northeast again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 hmmm, 18z nam is pulling the clipper back northeast again Take that w/ a grain of salt considering how the 12z looked, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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