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January 13-21st Clippers/Hybrids


Chicago Storm

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the little area moving up thru cincy looks really interesting.  ILN mentioned thunder and put up wwa for counties just to our south and southwest.    

Ironically one of the most played down windows during this clipper parade might end up being the most fruitful for us here in central OH....probably will get more snow from this incoming burst than the Saturday clipper.

To be fair to ILN, it was very poorly modeled. Lets hope tomorrow's doesn't fall apart like the models are suggesting.

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Latest NAM actually spits out a narrow swath of 0.5" liquid right through Cleveland by late afternoon.

Surprise 4-7" tonight?

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. The snow looks to be poised to head right up the I-71 corridor this afternoon and models showed it intensifying some possibly due to modest instability developing under the trough aloft this afternoon. The vort itself in the mid-levels is still moving south of east so I can't help but think the snow may get a shove to the east this afternoon...we'll see. Could briefly get really interesting up there. The SPC has parts of SE OH, WV and SW PA in a general thunder area for today.

 

You can see Lake Erie through the clouds right now and there's plenty of open water, especially closer to the southern shoreline. If the winds go WNW behind this little system there could be a few hours of lake enhancement. I'd say 1-3" is the safe forecast for the Cleveland metro...but it's interesting to say the least.

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yea, I wasn't beating on ILN it did kind of pop up out of nowhere. As far as Saturday, meh, I was never really too excited for that one outside of a 1 to locally 3 type event.

CLE just updated their AFD, no changes to forecast or mention of this impending snow. I thought for sure they'd mention a quick hitting and narrow 2-4" band. There'll likely be advisories needed if this plays out as some hi res guidance suggests.

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4km NAM for the entire sub forum

hires_t_precip_ne_16.png

Wow. That's even juicier. Looks like a .5" maxima just northeast of Columbus and then a good 0.5-0.7" swath through the heart of Cleveland.

Would be incredible if that verifies this afternoon / tonight.

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I think that includes what is falling today. I am epicenter to the blob coming up through Southwest Ohio. Incredible snow. Very heavy for the last half hour. I would guess about 2 inches. Snow globe snow....no wind....piling up fast. Hardest...heaviest snow of the year...in fact in many a year. Hope the guys Northeast from here get experience this. Bitter cold coming in on its heals so it will be around for the cold blast next week and beyond!

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Nice fat flakes and 1/2 to 3/4 mile visibility here now. A decent band has set up in SE WI, and we are starting to get some accumulation. Bummer model trends for SE WI for tomorrow's clipper. Seems to be drying out and heading south. I'm new to these parts... moved here from FL over the summer. The bitter cold of last week certainly was a test for this former Floridian. On the up side, these clippers are kind of like tracking formative Tropical cyclones (purely from a fun perspective that is). The models have a tough time with them, and you are never sure where the action is going to set up. Also, so far, most of the actual results have been different than what the models portrayed, even within 24 hours of the event... so you just don't always know what will happen. Very cool stuff. 

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I think we are good for 3-4" from the Saturday clipper and would not rule out going over 4".   Here's what IND had to say:

 

.....

POTENT UPPER LOW ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE WAVE WILL DIVE QUICKLY OUT   OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY...ROTATING INTO THE   REGION BY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO ALIGNMENT ON THE   CLIPPER...WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AND TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE   HEAVIER SNOWFALL. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW RAPIDLY ACROSS MOST   OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CONTINUING INTO   SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVES.     THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO OVERPERFORM CONSIDERING THE   EXPECTED SNOW RATIOS...THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING ALOFT...PRESENCE   OF A DEFORMATION AXIS SETTING UP AND LIKELIHOOD OF A MODEST   DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION IN TANDEM WITH THE   DEEPEST LIFT. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE BEST FORCING ALIGNS ACROSS THE   NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT HIGHEST SNOWFALL   AMOUNTS TO TAKE PLACE ALONG AND NORTH OF A CRAWFORDSVILLE-INDY-   RUSHVILLE LINE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. SNOW RATIOS MAY   BE NEAR 20 TO 1 AT THE ONSET...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SETTLE SOMEWHERE   BETWEEN 18/15 TO 1 FOR MUCH OF THE DURATION. HAVE PLACED TOTAL   SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY   SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN THE STRONGER BAND    AS THE SURFACE WAVE PIVOTS RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY   EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HWO   BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY AT SOME POINT LATER   TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.  
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Ended up with a very surprising 4 inches this morning (Friday 1/17) into early afternoon in the Dayton area (Bellbrook). Most came down in about a 45 minute period. Huge flakes....no wind....and as heavy as I have ever seen. Then in an instant wind picked up...dendrites shrunk...and you couldn't see 50 feet for about ten minutes. Still some showers and flurries. A big time over performer here!

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Ended up with a very surprising 4 inches this morning (Friday 1/17) into early afternoon in the Dayton area (Bellbrook). Most came down in about a 45 minute period. Huge flakes....no wind....and as heavy as I have ever seen. Then in an instant wind picked up...dendrites shrunk...and you couldn't see 50 feet for about ten minutes. Still some showers and flurries. A big time over performer here!

 

we got bent over, split, and dry-humped here in cmh.   betcha not even half an inch.

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Ended up with a very surprising 4 inches this morning (Friday 1/17) into early afternoon in the Dayton area (Bellbrook). Most came down in about a 45 minute period. Huge flakes....no wind....and as heavy as I have ever seen. Then in an instant wind picked up...dendrites shrunk...and you couldn't see 50 feet for about ten minutes. Still some showers and flurries. A big time over performer here!

 

'grats man. Nothing better than a sweet surprise like that!

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we got bent over, split, and dry-humped here in cmh.   betcha not even half an inch.

Awful. Friend of mine in Marysville got 4 inches. For such a great winter this winter sucks! I know, I know, take it to the complaint thread. That 22.3 in CMH is so deceiving too. Bunch of nickel and dimers. Ugh!!!!!!!

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