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January 13-21st Clippers/Hybrids


Chicago Storm

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picked up about an inch of snow the past 1 hr and rather windy

 

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
839 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 835 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014  
 
THE SNOW SQUALL IS EXITING OUT SOUTHEAST CORNER AS OF 830 PM...AND  
THE SHORT LIVED HIGH WINDS WILL LINGER SLIGHTLY PAST IT IN THAT  
CORNER AS WELL. THUS...I PLAN TO EXPIRE THE REMAINDER OF THE WSW  
AT 9 PM. ALL OTHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 8 PM.  
ERVIN  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 451 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014  
 
THE CONVECTIVE SNOW CLUSTER CREATING SHORT LIVED BLIZZARD  
CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL IOWA IS AIMED AT OUR SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH 8  
PM. I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM TO COVER  
THIS THREAT. IT IS VERY INTENSE AND SHORT LIVED...AND NOW IT THE  
TIME TO GET THE WORD OUT ON THIS...BY  
FORECAST...WEB...TV...RADIO...AND SOCIAL MEDIA.  
 
ERVIN  

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IF anything i think the model may be off with where the QPF goes. Not often is the heaviest found right under the surface low with these clippers dropping in like this. Usually it is just to the north/ne of the surface low. We'll see anyways.

 

 

Interesting look on the hourly maps here...it develops some heavier streaks of snow near and south of the low track

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

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Probably will end up around 3" here.

 

 

Still snowing here in Ann Arbor at 27F. Looks a lot nicer outside than at this time yesterday.

 

You seen the giant snow pile on central outside of the Chem building? Was still a good 8 feet tall this morning even before the snow started. Things gonna be there till June.

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Probably will end up around 3" here.

You seen the giant snow pile on central outside of the Chem building? Was still a good 8 feet tall this morning even before the snow started. Things gonna be there till June.

I'm looking at it now, it's nuts!

Oh and traffic was terrible today/tonight.

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Wyandotte will not be denied.

lol. As of 12:20am I am at 3.1" with todays event and still snowing. That means that as of 12:20am January 17th I am at 42.4" on the season, about average for an ENTIRE season and we arent even to the halfway point. What an amazing first half of winter. I am conservatively calling depth 6", but it ranges from about 3-12". Truly though, all of southern MI has sort of been the jackpot zone this winter so far, so missing a few is certainly expected.

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lol. As of 12:20am I am at 3.1" with todays event and still snowing. That means that as of 12:20am January 17th I am at 42.4" on the season, about average for an ENTIRE season and we arent even to the halfway point. What an amazing first half of winter. I am conservatively calling depth 6", but it ranges from about 3-12". Truly though, all of southern MI has sort of been the jackpot zone this winter so far, so missing a few is certainly expected.

 

Weren't some of the outlooks calling for a backloaded winter there?  I'd love to see what a backloaded winter would look like...

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Weren't some of the outlooks calling for a backloaded winter there?  I'd love to see what a backloaded winter would look like...

:lmao:  Move over 1880-81!

 

Deedler called for a backloaded winter...and as recently as early December we believed it.

 

From December 14th thru January 16th, DTW recorded 39.9" of snow. :o In that same time I recorded 40.2". That is just mind-numbing.

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Could be interesting here this afternoon. Most of the short term guidance warms surface temps to near 40F under 500mb temps of around -34C over SE Ohio. Can't help but wonder if there will be some thunder in eastern OH as the vort moves overhead during the afternoon with some bursts of briefly but very heavy snow. Some of the hi-res models are showing the convective snow developing over my head or just to my east so we'll see.

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:lmao:  Move over 1880-81!

 

Deedler called for a backloaded winter...and as recently as early December we believed it.

 

From December 14th thru January 16th, DTW recorded 39.9" of snow. :o In that same time I recorded 40.2". That is just mind-numbing.

 

Sounds like what January 1999 was for us. Except add 6" and compress the time period to 2 weeks.

 

Back when we used to catch breaks. 

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Could be interesting here this afternoon. Most of the short term guidance warms surface temps to near 40F under 500mb temps of around -34C over SE Ohio. Can't help but wonder if there will be some thunder in eastern OH as the vort moves overhead during the afternoon with some bursts of briefly but very heavy snow. Some of the hi-res models are showing the convective snow developing over my head or just to my east so we'll see.

Will be watching that piece of energy very closely as well. Over here, would be a late night/early morning event, if it can push north far enough like the rap and nam wrf are suggesting. Could be pretty potent looking on radar.
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Got a bit more powder overnight, so this snow event ended up dropping 3.4" imby on 0.28" liquid. What ended up being forecast as a 1-2" event for SE MI ended up being 2.5-4.5". Once again, that is more qpf than ANY model had for this event. This season there have been a few underperforming nuisance events (where the models had less than 0.10" qpf) but every snow event where the models progged 0.15" qpf or better has overperformed to AT WORST met expectations. Its one thing to have unsure ratios going into any event, but when your liquid equivalent (which is what the models print out) is above model guidance every single time...well...I have NEVER seen this happen in all the years I have been following the weather. NEVER. If you look back to our other recent epic winters (2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11) while the snowfall was very heavy, if models had verified those 65-80" winters would have been like 100" winters in SE MI.

 

I am now at 42.7" on the season....DTW picked up 3.5" which also puts them at 42.7" for the season which is exactly normal for an ENTIRE season (and 24-25" above normal to date). I will call depth 7" only to account for the spots that had been bare prior to this snowfall...most areas are deeper than 7" (but obviously said bare spots only have 3" now).

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Could be interesting here this afternoon. Most of the short term guidance warms surface temps to near 40F under 500mb temps of around -34C over SE Ohio. Can't help but wonder if there will be some thunder in eastern OH as the vort moves overhead during the afternoon with some bursts of briefly but very heavy snow. Some of the hi-res models are showing the convective snow developing over my head or just to my east so we'll see.

Latest NAM actually spits out a narrow swath of 0.5" liquid right through Cleveland by late afternoon.

Surprise 4-7" tonight?

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Latest NAM actually spits out a narrow swath of 0.5" liquid right through Cleveland by late afternoon.

Surprise 4-7" tonight?

 

the little area moving up thru cincy looks really interesting.  ILN mentioned thunder and put up wwa for counties just to our south and southwest.    

Ironically one of the most played down windows during this clipper parade might end up being the most fruitful for us here in central OH....probably will get more snow from this incoming burst than the Saturday clipper.

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