janetjanet998 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 picked up about an inch of snow the past 1 hr and rather windy REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 839 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014 UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014 THE SNOW SQUALL IS EXITING OUT SOUTHEAST CORNER AS OF 830 PM...AND THE SHORT LIVED HIGH WINDS WILL LINGER SLIGHTLY PAST IT IN THAT CORNER AS WELL. THUS...I PLAN TO EXPIRE THE REMAINDER OF THE WSW AT 9 PM. ALL OTHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 8 PM. ERVIN UPDATE ISSUED AT 451 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014 THE CONVECTIVE SNOW CLUSTER CREATING SHORT LIVED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL IOWA IS AIMED AT OUR SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH 8 PM. I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM TO COVER THIS THREAT. IT IS VERY INTENSE AND SHORT LIVED...AND NOW IT THE TIME TO GET THE WORD OUT ON THIS...BY FORECAST...WEB...TV...RADIO...AND SOCIAL MEDIA. ERVIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Gfs 00z places the heaviest back towards Chicago this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 IF anything i think the model may be off with where the QPF goes. Not often is the heaviest found right under the surface low with these clippers dropping in like this. Usually it is just to the north/ne of the surface low. We'll see anyways. Interesting look on the hourly maps here...it develops some heavier streaks of snow near and south of the low track http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Probably will end up around 3" here. Still snowing here in Ann Arbor at 27F. Looks a lot nicer outside than at this time yesterday. You seen the giant snow pile on central outside of the Chem building? Was still a good 8 feet tall this morning even before the snow started. Things gonna be there till June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 GFS came back a little stronger and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 0z GFS SEMI donut hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Probably will end up around 3" here. You seen the giant snow pile on central outside of the Chem building? Was still a good 8 feet tall this morning even before the snow started. Things gonna be there till June. I'm looking at it now, it's nuts! Oh and traffic was terrible today/tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 DMX put up a great radar loop of the "snow squall" as it formed and proceeded to plow southeast. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dmx/Events/140116_BlizzardLoop.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 SEMI donut hole Wyandotte will not be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Wyandotte will not be denied. lol. As of 12:20am I am at 3.1" with todays event and still snowing. That means that as of 12:20am January 17th I am at 42.4" on the season, about average for an ENTIRE season and we arent even to the halfway point. What an amazing first half of winter. I am conservatively calling depth 6", but it ranges from about 3-12". Truly though, all of southern MI has sort of been the jackpot zone this winter so far, so missing a few is certainly expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 lol. As of 12:20am I am at 3.1" with todays event and still snowing. That means that as of 12:20am January 17th I am at 42.4" on the season, about average for an ENTIRE season and we arent even to the halfway point. What an amazing first half of winter. I am conservatively calling depth 6", but it ranges from about 3-12". Truly though, all of southern MI has sort of been the jackpot zone this winter so far, so missing a few is certainly expected. Weren't some of the outlooks calling for a backloaded winter there? I'd love to see what a backloaded winter would look like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Weren't some of the outlooks calling for a backloaded winter there? I'd love to see what a backloaded winter would look like... A record breaker for the season probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Weren't some of the outlooks calling for a backloaded winter there? I'd love to see what a backloaded winter would look like... Move over 1880-81! Deedler called for a backloaded winter...and as recently as early December we believed it. From December 14th thru January 16th, DTW recorded 39.9" of snow. In that same time I recorded 40.2". That is just mind-numbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Punt time, ugh, in less than 24 hours this system went from looking real good to looking like a lost cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Punt time, ugh, in less than 24 hours this system went from looking real good to looking like a lost cause. Need to get this current system out of here quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Weren't some of the outlooks calling for a backloaded winter there? I'd love to see what a backloaded winter would look like... Gonna be hard to top the first half of this winter. NOT Impossible but hard. Gonna be some snowfall records smashed if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Could be interesting here this afternoon. Most of the short term guidance warms surface temps to near 40F under 500mb temps of around -34C over SE Ohio. Can't help but wonder if there will be some thunder in eastern OH as the vort moves overhead during the afternoon with some bursts of briefly but very heavy snow. Some of the hi-res models are showing the convective snow developing over my head or just to my east so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Finally a NAM run where the snow is displaced more away from the sfc low. Still best south and west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 YYZ had 0.6" yesterday. Looks like they'll end up in the 1"+ for the current clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Move over 1880-81! Deedler called for a backloaded winter...and as recently as early December we believed it. From December 14th thru January 16th, DTW recorded 39.9" of snow. In that same time I recorded 40.2". That is just mind-numbing. Sounds like what January 1999 was for us. Except add 6" and compress the time period to 2 weeks. Back when we used to catch breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 About 4". impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 No 6am call from Alekimg. Must not be enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 haha, i haven't even looked at a model run other than seeing some images posted here. It's a boring clipper that will trend drier like the rest of the them and pass to my south. Not much to see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 First call for here is 2-3". Looks like 3-4" with isolated 5" amounts from Freeport, to Rochelle, down to Kankakee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 YYZ had 0.6" yesterday. Looks like they'll end up in the 1"+ for the current clipper. Just over 2" as of this morning IMBY. Nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Could be interesting here this afternoon. Most of the short term guidance warms surface temps to near 40F under 500mb temps of around -34C over SE Ohio. Can't help but wonder if there will be some thunder in eastern OH as the vort moves overhead during the afternoon with some bursts of briefly but very heavy snow. Some of the hi-res models are showing the convective snow developing over my head or just to my east so we'll see.Will be watching that piece of energy very closely as well. Over here, would be a late night/early morning event, if it can push north far enough like the rap and nam wrf are suggesting. Could be pretty potent looking on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Got a bit more powder overnight, so this snow event ended up dropping 3.4" imby on 0.28" liquid. What ended up being forecast as a 1-2" event for SE MI ended up being 2.5-4.5". Once again, that is more qpf than ANY model had for this event. This season there have been a few underperforming nuisance events (where the models had less than 0.10" qpf) but every snow event where the models progged 0.15" qpf or better has overperformed to AT WORST met expectations. Its one thing to have unsure ratios going into any event, but when your liquid equivalent (which is what the models print out) is above model guidance every single time...well...I have NEVER seen this happen in all the years I have been following the weather. NEVER. If you look back to our other recent epic winters (2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11) while the snowfall was very heavy, if models had verified those 65-80" winters would have been like 100" winters in SE MI. I am now at 42.7" on the season....DTW picked up 3.5" which also puts them at 42.7" for the season which is exactly normal for an ENTIRE season (and 24-25" above normal to date). I will call depth 7" only to account for the spots that had been bare prior to this snowfall...most areas are deeper than 7" (but obviously said bare spots only have 3" now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Could be interesting here this afternoon. Most of the short term guidance warms surface temps to near 40F under 500mb temps of around -34C over SE Ohio. Can't help but wonder if there will be some thunder in eastern OH as the vort moves overhead during the afternoon with some bursts of briefly but very heavy snow. Some of the hi-res models are showing the convective snow developing over my head or just to my east so we'll see. Latest NAM actually spits out a narrow swath of 0.5" liquid right through Cleveland by late afternoon. Surprise 4-7" tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Latest NAM actually spits out a narrow swath of 0.5" liquid right through Cleveland by late afternoon. Surprise 4-7" tonight? the little area moving up thru cincy looks really interesting. ILN mentioned thunder and put up wwa for counties just to our south and southwest. Ironically one of the most played down windows during this clipper parade might end up being the most fruitful for us here in central OH....probably will get more snow from this incoming burst than the Saturday clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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