Baum Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 You boys salt that? Sent from my SCH-R530U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Just finished clearing the driveway, took a little longer than expected, would say I got a solid 10" + from the clipper and LES that followed afterwards. Took some pictures but since it is dark not the best, but will give you a general idea of whats on the ground. I think I need a smaller driveway or a bigger snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Got clipped by a quick 1/2" here at home this evening. Hopefully its the beginning of some more winter fun after the recent master reset of snow meltage. How much old snow survived there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Just finished clearing the driveway, took a little longer than expected, would say I got a solid 10" + from the clipper and LES that followed afterwards. Took some pictures but since it is dark not the best, but will give you a general idea of whats on the ground. I think I need a smaller driveway or a bigger snowblower. Like the clean cut lines from the snowblower. You dont even have big snowbanks in your driveway lol...very clean with the snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Tonights NAM looks nice for here tomorrow. Would certainly be good for at least 2-3" if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Not much change with the Saturday clipper on the 00z NAM, looks to be slightly slower and stronger however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 NAM still looking good, a tad stronger and north this run but still 3-5" here. Ratios look to be at least 15:1 if not closer to 20:1 and still seeing a 300mb deep DGZ on both the NAM and GFS for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Like the clean cut lines from the snowblower. You dont even have big snowbanks in your driveway lol...very clean with the snowblower. Lol, yea the snowblower does a cleaner job with snow removal, I do have some large snowbanks that are hard to see and some not in the pictures though because I did have have my neighbor help plow me out a couple weeks ago when my snow blower went down. I also needed a couple big banks to help load the sleds in the truck beds. If I had him plow from the start, my banks would be massive right now. I'll get some pics some day from the road to show how big the banks are in our roads, insanely tall already. Going to be looking at snow until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 0z NAM snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Would be some impressive snowfall rates for a time on Saturday if the NAM were to verify. You have a 40-50kt SW backing to even a slightly SE direction at 925mb Saturday morning aiding in snowfall production as well as really good lift through the deep DGZ as you can see here at H5/H7, would also see a good UVV signal at 850mb as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 NAM has omega at 15 microbars within the DGZ mid-afternoon, given most of the precip falls in a 6hr period we would probably see a few hours of 1"/hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Both the NAM and RGEM look good for SE MI tomorrow, both have over 0.20" qpf starting around noon and lasting through early morning Friday (heaviest tomorrow mid-late afternoon). Goodbye dirty old snow, hello instant winter wonderland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Would be some impressive snowfall rates for a time on Saturday if the NAM were to verify. You have a 40-50kt SW backing to even a slightly SE direction at 925mb Saturday morning aiding in snowfall production as well as really good lift through the deep DGZ as you can see here at H5/H7, would also see a good UVV signal at 850mb as well. namFLT_500_vvel_066.gif namFLT_700_vvel_066.gif Just based on experience odd that after a number of these clippers cutting north and east of ORD one would cut so sharply south-southeast as is currently modeled. But you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 How much old snow survived there? Any drift which was 3' or more survived the heat of late and reduced to 10" ice burgs. As for the rest grass is everywhere but the ditches are still 60% full even after all the melting and run off. There was a few afternoons of decent flooding but it too has receded to a few puddles. Looking forward to the clean white beauty of winter to return over the next few days and some chemical plowing !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Any drift which was 3' or more survived the heat of late and reduced to 10" ice burgs. As for the rest grass is everywhere but the ditches are still 60% full even after all the melting and run off. There was a few afternoons of decent flooding but it too has receded to a few puddles. Looking forward to the clean white beauty of winter to return over the next few days and some chemical plowing !! Ah sounds like you live out in the country. I noticed the same types of things in open areas around here. There is a hill behind my work that has drifts on it that appear to be ridiculously deep but probably 65% of the hill is now grass.....also its definitely a unique sight driving on the busy streets....cars have to inch out because they cant see past the snowbanks yet there is nothing but dead grass all over the middle of the median . In more enclosed residential areas away from the hills, ditches, winds, of course, is still nice and (dirty) white (a few bare spots, a few deep drifts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 GFS not QUITE as good for here as NAM/RGEM, but still look good. There now does appear to be a model consensus of 0.1-0.25" qpf tomorrow/tomorrow night...let it snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 GFS came in much stronger and a little bit north. Wave now closing off aloft and wetter like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Deep in the country and surrounded by open fields and bush. Often see wild turkeys, deer and hear pack of coyotes hunting at night. The area is very similar to driving from Toledo to Sandusky in topography and feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 0z GFS, NAM, and RGEM look a little more interesting for tomorrow for LAF and surrounding areas. Might be a little surprise if they pan out. As for Saturday, I expect it to graze LAF to the north/northeast, as the first clipper moves quickly off to the northeast and the ridge to the west that's moving east works its influence. ORD to FWA line looks good IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 0z GFS > 78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 0z GFS, NAM, and RGEM look a little more interesting for tomorrow for LAF and surrounding areas. Might be a little surprise if they pan out. As for Saturday, I expect it to graze LAF to the north/northeast, as the first clipper moves quickly off to the northeast and the ridge to the west that's moving east works its influence. ORD to FWA line looks good IMO. Yeah, I noticed some of the recent runs and short term models suggesting more like 1-2" here tomorrow. I still think Saturday is likely to be the bigger system for us but we can't afford any more northward shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Yeah, I noticed some of the recent runs and short term models suggesting more like 1-2" here tomorrow. I still think Saturday is likely to be the bigger system for us but we can't afford any more northward shifts. Hopefully tomorrow pans out, because I'm not digging Saturday for LAF. Just don't like the look, as I can easily see it grazing/missing to the north/northeast. Maybe I'll be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Deep in the country and surrounded by open fields and bush. Often see wild turkeys, deer and hear pack of coyotes hunting at night. The area is very similar to driving from Toledo to Sandusky in topography and feel. That would explain it lol. Its hard enough doing snow depth (as said, I settled on 4") in suburbia with the drifting...cant imagine some of the drifts you had. Sorry to go OT, but as to the bolded, that is actually a DARK, eerie drive in the middle of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Hopefully tomorrow pans out, because I'm not digging Saturday for LAF. Just don't like the look, as I can easily see it grazing/missing to the north/northeast. Maybe I'll be wrong though. That could happen but I'm not going to lose confidence with northward bumps on the 00z cycle. GEFS have been looking good with most tracks putting us in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 00z GGEM came north a bit for Saturday. I guess it almost had to considering 12z pretty much whiffed LAF to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 GGEM looks really good for central Illinois & Indiana! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Lol the GEM cracks me up. Weakens 4mb in 6hr as it moves through IL but increases QPF in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Looks like a dusting possible here/QC with tomorrow afternoon's snow showers. Saturday's event looks like another non-event from Cedar Rapids to the QC. 1/3" to 1" possible. Looks solid though for southeast WI, northeast IL, and the northeast half of IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 LOT on the Friday-Saturday storm: FAST ON THE HEELS OF CLIPPER CINCO (MORE ACCURATELY IT WOULD BECONSIDERED A MANITOBA MAULER GIVEN IT`S ORIGINS IN MANITOBA....BUTFOR THE SAKE OF OUR CLIPPER COUNT WE`LL LUMP SEIS IN WITH THECLIPPERS!) IS NONE OTHER THAN CLIPPER SEIS WHICH SHOULD BE DIVINGSOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAYNIGHT. SMALL WINDOW COULD EXIST FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF FRIDAYNIGHT...BUT WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SEIS ANDCLOUD COVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FRIDAYNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND MORE VIGOROUS WITH SEISOVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND ITS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THATTHIS SYSTEM WILL LAY DOWN A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE LEFT OFITS TRACK. GIVEN THE LOOK OF THIS FELLA IN THE LATESTMODELS...INCLUDING A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...STEEP MID LEVELLAPSE RATES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIZABLE DENDRITIC GROWTHZONE IT`S NOT HARD TO ENVISION A SCENARIO WHERE SEIS LAYS DOWN ANARROW SWATH OF LOW END WARNING SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH A PERIOD OFHEAVY SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION BAND. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION ATTHIS POINT IS WHERE IT WILL TRACK. WE ARE STILL 3 DAYS OUT AND A ITWOULD BE MORE SURPRISING IF MODELS DON`T BOUNCE AROUND THAN IF THEYDO...SO IT WOULD BE STUPID TO START TALKING ABOUT SPECIFICS WITHREGARDS TO WHO STANDS TO SEE THE MOST SNOW. TO USE THE ANALOGY OFTHE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER`S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY WITHHURRICANES...OUR CWA WOULD BE WELL WITHIN THE CONE...IF NOT SMACKDAB IN THE MIDDLE. DO PLAN TO START RAMPING THINGS UP IN THE HWO ANDWX STORY IN THE HOPES THAT SUCH RHETORIC WILL CONVINCE THE MODELS TOSHIFT THE TRACK AWAY FROM OUR AREA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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