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January 13-21st Clippers/Hybrids


Chicago Storm

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Just finished clearing the driveway, took a little longer than expected, would say I got a solid 10" + from the clipper and LES that followed afterwards. Took some pictures but since it is dark not the best, but will give you a general idea of whats on the ground. I think I need a smaller driveway or a bigger snowblower. 

1545180_10201204461773170_1110824110_n.j1011751_10201204459053102_2054858887_n.j1505570_10201204460813146_1116020014_n.j

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Just finished clearing the driveway, took a little longer than expected, would say I got a solid 10" + from the clipper and LES that followed afterwards. Took some pictures but since it is dark not the best, but will give you a general idea of whats on the ground. I think I need a smaller driveway or a bigger snowblower. 

1545180_10201204461773170_1110824110_n.j1011751_10201204459053102_2054858887_n.j1505570_10201204460813146_1116020014_n.j

Like the clean cut lines from the snowblower. You dont even have big snowbanks in your driveway lol...very clean with the snowblower.

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Like the clean cut lines from the snowblower. You dont even have big snowbanks in your driveway lol...very clean with the snowblower.

Lol, yea the snowblower does a cleaner job with snow removal, I do have some large snowbanks that are hard to see and some not in the pictures though because I did have have my neighbor help plow me out a couple weeks ago when my snow blower went down. I also needed a couple big banks to help load the sleds in the truck beds. If I had him plow from the start, my banks would be massive right now. I'll get some pics some day from the road to show how big the banks are in our roads, insanely tall already. Going to be looking at snow until May.

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Would be some impressive snowfall rates for a time on Saturday if the NAM were to verify. You have a 40-50kt SW backing to even a slightly SE direction at 925mb Saturday morning aiding in snowfall production as well as really good lift through the deep DGZ as you can see here at H5/H7, would also see a good UVV signal at 850mb as well.

 

 

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Would be some impressive snowfall rates for a time on Saturday if the NAM were to verify. You have a 40-50kt SW backing to even a slightly SE direction at 925mb Saturday morning aiding in snowfall production as well as really good lift through the deep DGZ as you can see here at H5/H7, would also see a good UVV signal at 850mb as well.

attachicon.gifnamFLT_500_vvel_066.gif

attachicon.gifnamFLT_700_vvel_066.gif

Just based on experience odd that after a number of these clippers cutting north and east of ORD one would cut so sharply south-southeast as is currently modeled. But you never know.
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How much old snow survived there?

Any drift which was 3' or more survived the heat of late and reduced to 10" ice burgs. As for the rest grass is everywhere but the ditches are still 60% full even after all the melting and run off. There was a few afternoons of decent flooding but it too has receded to a few puddles. Looking forward to the clean white beauty of winter to return over the next few days and some chemical plowing !!

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Any drift which was 3' or more survived the heat of late and reduced to 10" ice burgs. As for the rest grass is everywhere but the ditches are still 60% full even after all the melting and run off. There was a few afternoons of decent flooding but it too has receded to a few puddles. Looking forward to the clean white beauty of winter to return over the next few days and some chemical plowing !!

Ah sounds like you live out in the country. I noticed the same types of things in open areas around here. There is a hill behind my work that has drifts on it that appear to be ridiculously deep but probably 65% of the hill is now grass.....also its definitely a unique sight driving on the busy streets....cars have to inch out because they cant see past the snowbanks yet there is nothing but dead grass all over the middle of the median :lmao:. In more enclosed residential areas away from the hills, ditches, winds, of course, is still nice and (dirty) white (a few bare spots, a few deep drifts).

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0z GFS, NAM, and RGEM look a little more interesting for tomorrow for LAF and surrounding areas. Might be a little surprise if they pan out. As for Saturday, I expect it to graze LAF to the north/northeast, as the first clipper moves quickly off to the northeast and the ridge to the west that's moving east works its influence. ORD to FWA line looks good IMO.

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0z GFS, NAM, and RGEM look a little more interesting for tomorrow for LAF and surrounding areas. Might be a little surprise if they pan out. As for Saturday, I expect it to graze LAF to the north/northeast, as the first clipper moves quickly off to the northeast and the ridge to the west that's moving east works its influence. ORD to FWA line looks good IMO.

 

 

Yeah, I noticed some of the recent runs and short term models suggesting more like 1-2" here tomorrow.   

 

I still think Saturday is likely to be the bigger system for us but we can't afford any more northward shifts.

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Yeah, I noticed some of the recent runs and short term models suggesting more like 1-2" here tomorrow.   

 

I still think Saturday is likely to be the bigger system for us but we can't afford any more northward shifts.

 

Hopefully tomorrow pans out, because I'm not digging Saturday for LAF. Just don't like the look, as I can easily see it grazing/missing to the north/northeast. Maybe I'll be wrong though.

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Deep in the country and surrounded by open fields and bush. Often see wild turkeys, deer and hear pack of coyotes hunting at night. The area is very similar to driving from Toledo to Sandusky in topography and feel.

That would explain it lol. Its hard enough doing snow depth (as said, I settled on 4") in suburbia with the drifting...cant imagine some of the drifts you had. Sorry to go OT, but as to the bolded, that is actually a DARK, eerie drive in the middle of the night.

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Hopefully tomorrow pans out, because I'm not digging Saturday for LAF. Just don't like the look, as I can easily see it grazing/missing to the north/northeast. Maybe I'll be wrong though.

 

 

That could happen but I'm not going to lose confidence with northward bumps on the 00z cycle.  GEFS have been looking good with most tracks putting us in a good spot.

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LOT on the Friday-Saturday storm:

 

FAST ON THE HEELS OF CLIPPER CINCO (MORE ACCURATELY IT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A MANITOBA MAULER GIVEN IT`S ORIGINS IN MANITOBA....BUT
FOR THE SAKE OF OUR CLIPPER COUNT WE`LL LUMP SEIS IN WITH THE
CLIPPERS!) IS NONE OTHER THAN CLIPPER SEIS WHICH SHOULD BE DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT. SMALL WINDOW COULD EXIST FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SEIS AND
CLOUD COVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND MORE VIGOROUS WITH SEIS
OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND ITS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL LAY DOWN A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE LEFT OF
ITS TRACK. GIVEN THE LOOK OF THIS FELLA IN THE LATEST
MODELS...INCLUDING A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIZABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE IT`S NOT HARD TO ENVISION A SCENARIO WHERE SEIS LAYS DOWN A
NARROW SWATH OF LOW END WARNING SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION BAND. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AT
THIS POINT IS WHERE IT WILL TRACK. WE ARE STILL 3 DAYS OUT AND A IT
WOULD BE MORE SURPRISING IF MODELS DON`T BOUNCE AROUND THAN IF THEY
DO...SO IT WOULD BE STUPID TO START TALKING ABOUT SPECIFICS WITH
REGARDS TO WHO STANDS TO SEE THE MOST SNOW. TO USE THE ANALOGY OF
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER`S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
HURRICANES...OUR CWA WOULD BE WELL WITHIN THE CONE...IF NOT SMACK
DAB IN THE MIDDLE. DO PLAN TO START RAMPING THINGS UP IN THE HWO AND
WX STORY IN THE HOPES THAT SUCH RHETORIC WILL CONVINCE THE MODELS TO
SHIFT THE TRACK AWAY FROM OUR AREA!

 

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