A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 the euro has been prone to embarrassing multi hundred mile shifts from r2r, the NAM has its usual amped/wet bias, and the GFS is often slow to catch on to trends (but gets there in a naso embarrassing baby step fashion). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Thanks for the forecasting advice. And the Euro has been how bad? Actually look at the Euro's solution for the last clipper about 72 hours out. Mangled C Wisconsin with snow, pretty solid. Sure, the Euro hasn't been good on the whole, but somehow I've seen it's still better than the NAM. I just don't understand why you are looking at the NAM out to 72-84 hours verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Best clipper threat for YYZ is beyond 120. Looks like some interesting LES potential depending on the track. lake effect will likely be minimal by the time we get to the end of the month, particularly off Georgian Bay given it will be freezing over. Looks windy in Edmonton by the way. Windy and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Congrats Weatherbo! took this before sunrise. think the lighting is cool with re: to snow depth.115141.JPG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 tonight and tomorrow looking a little better around here. Looks like a nice blizzard off to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Actually look at the Euro's solution for the last clipper about 72 hours out. Mangled C Wisconsin with snow, pretty solid. Sure, the Euro hasn't been good on the whole, but somehow I've seen it's still better than the NAM. I just don't understand why you are looking at the NAM out to 72-84 hours verbatim. No harm in looking.. But the Euro has been squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 flurries fluttering around...and Gino's write-up today was pretty humerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 12z NAM looking good. What is this a Manitoba Mauler?! 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 To me the trend (if you can call it that) on the 00z Euro for Saturday is more important than the actual output on that run. Maybe it will trend more impressive as we get closer, maybe it won't, but it was a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 To me the trend (if you can call it that) on the 00z Euro for Saturday is more important than the actual output on that run. Maybe it will trend more impressive as we get closer, maybe it won't, but it was a step in the right direction. I'll buy that. Seems most of the guidance is seeing this being an actual snow for someone. Where and who TBD. But if I had my druthers, I'd rather the models "ramp up" the QPF as we get closer, rather than the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Euro looks close to last nights run. Maybe a hair south. Low goes from northeast IA to IKK. Not as wet as the NAM/GFS. Most of the 12z GFS ensembles are solid for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 Ended up with 0.5" here and 0.1" at ORD with the clipper yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Hires models have that "convective look" to them for tomorrow, especially for the second round in the evening. 12z Euro has the "splotchy" QPF look as well. Might be some isolated spots that rip snow for a pretty brief period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Ended up with 0.5" here and 0.1" at ORD with the clipper yesterday. Nice, 20" even for the month at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Hires models have that "convective look" to them for tomorrow, especially for the second round in the evening. 12z Euro has the "splotchy" QPF look as well. Might be some isolated spots that rip snow for a pretty brief period of time. I agree. Forecast soundings have similarities to yesterday so it would not be surprising to see some brief heavier bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Bulls eye baby!! bulleye.PNG Nice score up there Wxbo! Those little surprise storms that happen (with the help of the lake) are one of the things I always loved about winters up there. And they're not all that rare either. Enjoy it! I'll be sure to send you a pic of flowers blooming in my garden in April, while you're still waiting for the rest of that to go away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Some crazy totals from this storm Local totals seem to range from high 4s to 6.5 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Nice score up there Wxbo! Those little surprise storms that happen (with the help of the lake) are one of the things I always loved about winters up there. And they're not all that rare either. Enjoy it! I'll be sure to send you a pic of flowers blooming in my garden in April, while you're still waiting for the rest of that to go away.. touché Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 Nice, 20" even for the month at ORD. Makes it the 15th snowiest January on record. Should continue to move up the list and into the top 10 over the next several days... Snowiest Januarys: 1. 42.5" - 1918 2. 40.4" - 1979 3. 32.2" - 1978 4. 29.6" - 1999 5. 28.9" - 1967 6. 27.8" - 2005 7. 26.7" - 1886 8. 24.7" - 1939 9. 21.5" - 2009 10. 21.1" - 1982 11. 21.1" - 1963 12. 20.8" - 1943 13. 20.2" - 1885 14. 20.1" - 1962 15. 20.0" - 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Man Bo at this rate your shed is going to be buried under the snow before the end of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 As far as tomorrow, I really can't see more than a half inch to inch around here although there may be a heavy burst or two. Saturday is shaping up to be more interesting and my early thoughts on that are something in the 2-4" range. Still some discrepancies with track but I think we're in a decent spot overall, and even with potential minor shifting in the track, ratios look better than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Some crazy totals from this storm Local totals seem to range from high 4s to 6.5 inches... looks like the NAM did best with amounts...cough cough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 NAM continues to be impressive for Saturday and gives this area 6" overall between tomrrow morning and Saturday, agree with Hoosier that a 2-4" stripe is a good call right now for Saturday. weird little pattern on the snow maps with 5 distinct areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Full run of the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 , agree with Hoosier that a 2-4" stripe is a good call right now for Saturday. Yeah I agree with that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 First storm approaching looks like 6-10 inches for n WI, n/c MI and 3-6 for parts of e WI, 1-3 max for Chicago and probably closer to 1". Second wave Friday night and Saturday looks to be 3-5 inches s WI and n IL. Brief mixing on Sunday then another inch or two by Monday for Chicago, possibly 3-6 inches or more for parts of WI and MI. These storms are putting on a clinic how not to give snow to Toronto, but one may fail eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Full run of the 18z NAM. I'll take this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Come to think of it should of called in sick, past the Gaylord groomer at the C38 and Old 27 intersection on my way to work, trails looked awesome. Was still snowing pretty hard when I left my house for work, probably sneak another inch or so out of it. This weekend should be a decent weekend for riding up here until the masses downstate get up here lol.Congrats. That makes my mouth water! I've only got like 3 miles on the sled so far. Hoping we have a turn for the better soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Tomorrow has my interest. If nothing else freshen up the icy old snow...but it looks like quite a widespread (albeit light) area of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Got clipped by a quick 1/2" here at home this evening. Hopefully its the beginning of some more winter fun after the recent master reset of snow meltage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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