mimillman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 6:40 PM, A-L-E-K said: it has inched east 3 runs in a row. Far SE side still does well but ORD is more or less shutout (not surprising, just saying). Which is another reason why I'm staying more conservative. This may end up trending further east until showtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 LOT upgrades Cook and Lake IN to a warning for 6-12" with isolated totals over 12". Advisory for Will and Porter still under a watch. ..... COOK- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHICAGO 1247 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR EASTERN COOK COUNTY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR EASTERN COOK COUNTY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO EASTERN COOK COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO INDIANA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE AND IN SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OVER A FOOT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 6:50 PM, mimillman said: Which is another reason why I'm staying more conservative. This may end up trending further east until showtime. I think you are safely far enough south/east to get more than 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 old but still looks decent...jackpot should be shifted west into Lake and maybe extreme SE Cook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 FWIW the 18z RAP came in with a stronger inverted trof and pushed the synoptics snow north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 7:20 PM, A-L-E-K said: old but still looks decent...jackpot should be shifted west into Lake and maybe extreme SE Cook If I had to bet on it I'd say that the jackpot is within a few miles either side of the IL/IN border. Band may spend the longest amount of time there even if somewhat transient. The farther east you go into Porter/LaPorte counties gets progressively more uncertain with questions on translation speed and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 ILX has me at 2" for tonight looks like a decent event for a lot of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 hi-res NAM east as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 IWX WRF is a messy dual maxima Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 8:47 PM, Hoosier said: IWX WRF is a messy dual maxima iwxwrf.png i'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 8:41 PM, A-L-E-K said: hi-res NAM east as well I think it might have been a little too hasty to hoist the warning for Cook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 2.7 inches since last night, pure fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 8:48 PM, mimillman said: I think it might have been a little too hasty to hoist the warning for Cook. I thought advisory earlier and still do. Far SE Cook might still looks decent warning amounts. this was always a situation where 90% of the warned county wouldn't see much if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 8:48 PM, A-L-E-K said: i'll take it Fun to look at the omega plots...the values are almost off the scale especially when the band swings into IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 FWIW, temps just dropped 5 degrees last hour. Was 33, now is at 28, so the front has pushed through, and winds now are from ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 early stages of lake plume already showing up on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 PC has me under an inch for event total...I give myself better odds at hitting 4.1 inches vs. under an inch ... IMO saturation assistance already underway over a good chunk of LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 hot off the presses 6" for MBY...bullish PC is 5-9"...even more bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 9:14 PM, A-L-E-K said: hot off the presses 6" for MBY...bullish PC is 5-9"...even more bullish good call on the bullseye movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 9:14 PM, A-L-E-K said: hot off the presses 6" for MBY...bullish PC is 5-9"...even more bullish Probably not gonna happen, but fun to look at. PC has me at 5-9 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 event could have a double digit gradient not only across Cook Co but across Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I figure 2" tops. Family is freaking out about the possiblity of 12" . I just showed the kids the snowfall map. They were hoping for a snow day..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 -DU has commenced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 20z RAP continues north trend with synoptic snows and looks a bit west with LES band at 7z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 9:14 PM, A-L-E-K said: hot off the presses 6" for MBY...bullish PC is 5-9"...even more bullish That <1" area across most of the CWA will end up being too low for a good portion of the outlined area. Should have kept it at 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 9:26 PM, Chicago Storm said: That <1" area across most of the CWA will end up being too low for a good portion of the outlined area. Should have kept it at 1-2" needless to say, I agree 100% though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 9:24 PM, Thundersnow12 said: 20z RAP continues north trend with synoptic snows and looks a bit west with LES band at 7z you can also see the QPF blossom in the saturated regions south and west of LM from 3Z to 4Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 9:26 PM, Chicago Storm said: That <1" area across most of the CWA will end up being too low for a good portion of the outlined area. Should have kept it at 1-2" 18z GFS argues even a tad more. Spits out 3" all of northeast IL east of rt 47/Randall Rd about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 9:40 PM, Thundersnow12 said: 18z GFS argues even a tad more. Spits out 3" all of northeast IL east of rt 47/Randall Rd about http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014012018&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 On 1/20/2014 at 9:43 PM, ILSNOW said: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014012018&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048 That includes the Wednesday clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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