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Jan 15-17th 2014 "Threat"


jamesnichols1989

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Looking forward to more rain this winter.

Have not had enough yet, and am always wanting more.

Yes, sne winters are usually filled with some awesome dec jan and feb rain, esp along cp, it is what it is, and it is crap, which is why people fantasize about Leon lett 20 years after his fat dumb azz screw'd up. If we are lucky we get a month of cutter free snow pack, which keeps us coming back every year fantasizing about "gate to gate" and Leon Lett and the year middleboro got 110". It is a exercise in denial dissapointment and triumph to be a snow weenie here hoping every year that this "will be" great.

I gotta get outta here, but i dont wanna live w the mtn goats and 3 tooth'd women of elevated nne.

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Not for nothing, but the euro ensembles had decent precip probs for ern MA. Might be rain for a lot, but some areas away from the coast could be snow, especially with a track like that supporting more nrly winds.  

 

 

That was kind of weird on the Euro ensembles to see that much precip...and the track.

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Not for nothing, but the euro ensembles had decent precip probs for ern MA. Might be rain for a lot, but some areas away from the coast could be snow, especially with a track like that supporting more nrly winds.  

Was just gonna say...ENS looked ok for eastern CT/northern RI/ interior SE MA with a track like that. The significantly negatively tilted 500mb troughis the only way this has a chance.

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The 12z GFS has low pressure centered over or near the Great Lakes for most of the first 8 days of its run.  That is in response to the upper level pattern and persistent vorticity advection over the Lakes.  That's typically what you get with linear flow from VA to Greenland.  The trof axis is pretty favorable, the PNA is spiking, and there are plenty of s/ws in the flow to tilt the trof axis and iniative 2nd cyclogenesis.  But the GFS is consistent in showing unfavorable interactions between energy near the Lakes and energy that rounds the base of the trof.  Kind of a shame.  The Euro pulls it off, but it's tenuous and mostly confined to the east.  This is looking like a frustrating period.

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The 12z GFS has low pressure centered over or near the Great Lakes for most of the first 8 days of its run.  That is in response to the upper level pattern and persistent vorticity advection over the Lakes.  That's typically what you get with linear flow from VA to Greenland.  The trof axis is pretty favorable, the PNA is spiking, and there are plenty of s/ws in the flow to tilt the trof axis and iniative 2nd cyclogenesis.  But the GFS is consistent in showing unfavorable interactions between energy near the Lakes and energy that rounds the base of the trof.  Kind of a shame.  The Euro pulls it off, but it's tenuous and mostly confined to the east.  This is looking like a frustrating period.

 

If we do manage to make it another 8 or 10 days without much winter/snow to show for it...ouch.

 

That puts us into the last week of January and then we're a short hop from higher sun angles and lime season.  (haha).  I do hate wasting what should be some of the more fun times like we have, but hopefully February produces.

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You guys are out of your mind lol. Have fun worrying.

They need to come to grips w the face sne is not a very snowy place espn along cp. accepting that as a snow lover is tuff.

At least jan 19-20'th onward enter a good pattern of likely light to mod events and most will be above normal snowfall wise by feb 10

I think the coming pattern looks good for a coast and cape cod esp in a week or so. Would be funny if most storms were suppressed to mid atl lol

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Well starting this weekend and then near the 21 we have two chances. I don't see a big issue. You don't get snow immediately on a pattern change, just doesn't work that way.

 

Leon abandoned us and left us with 50 degree rainstorms in the heart of winter. 

 

Hopefully when he gets back from his fifth lunch we'll have a great second half.

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