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Jan 15-17th 2014 "Threat"


jamesnichols1989

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Actually the operational EURO and GFS both have events on the 15-15th and 18-19th, they are differing degrees of intensity but the GFS seems to have gone towards the EURO idea of Saturday event the 18th-19th.  PNA rise is quite dramatic for the second and third northern stream disturbances, this leads to downstream troughing south of 40N latitude line indicating that cyclogenesis occurs either over SC/NC or VA capes.  This system will do quite well in producing snow after THursday timeframe.

 

Exactly, someone should branch off a thread for the later threat window as everyone is clearly confused and mixing events.

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There are 2 potential snow events in the medium range

 

Event #1: Shown here @ 96 hours, this wave exits stage right, but is something to keep an eye on if it ends up phasing a bit faster. 

post-8091-0-90032100-1389570869_thumb.gi

 

Event #2: Shown here @ 144 hours, this is first time a model has shown this one, 18z GFS shows it a bit as well. 

post-8091-0-38204500-1389570887_thumb.gi

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The dates are still pretty confusing on this and prob should have been left more general.

Tue eve nothing to see some rain showers lingering

Thur eve needs help but maybe not dead yet.

 

 

Tues evening has been toast for a while now.

 

 

Thu could still happen. But it looks pretty unimpressive at the moment.

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I'd like to see a little more upside to this system to get much interest in it. The upside right now appears to be a couple inches of paste in the northern hilltowns. We'd need to see it change quickly to entertain the possibility of something more.

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