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Jan 15-17th 2014 "Threat"


jamesnichols1989

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The 12z GEFs are all over the place days 3-7... spread between and even a little beyond the operational GFS and Euro solutions.  Some weak frontal passes and some bombs, for both threats.  There's enough uncertainly to keep things interesting.  For now I'd go with light rain to snow for Wed and a miss/mostly dry for Fri/Sat.  I really hope things trend more exciting.

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that doesn't surprise me, your original assumption of the 18th looks solid

 

Well it was to peek out after the 15th too..lol. It's possible it might be more than peeking. I'd like to see some guidance come around, but when the EC ensembles show this at 102 hrs out..you should take note.

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+PNA is more instrumental in us getting a snowstorm than the NAO domain, while the NAO domain while negative can help us a ton, its not as important as a +PNA in our region, maybe for the Mid Atlantic states, but not for New England.

 

Actually I would argue a -NAO is more important, especially for you on Cape Cod.

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Hate to drub up this tired argument again ... but I disagree to an an extent , but not in total.

 

-NAO means less than a changing NAO.  A static -NAO gets rather suppressing at our latitude, causing the geopotential field to compress S along the EC, such that it becomes a wave interence/speed shear meat grinder.  

 

Having said that, a -NAO is important for at least one way to lock in cold. If the NAO is negative for a week, then starts to rise, while the PNA is also spiking, that is a powder keg of potential.

 

The other thing that really makes this complex is the rate of delta(DM) for these respective domains.  For example, if the PNA rise fast, and the NAO rise slowly, that allows for potential cut-off/blocking couplet (Rex-like) from eastern Ontario to the MA, and tucked in there is a slow moving monster.   If the NAO rises rapidly and the PNA rises rapidly, Lake Cutter... 

 

You have to kind think of these indices as having a spectrum of correlations.  -NAO is too absolute; so is +PNA.  

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FWIW, I'm confused lol. Is there three different events?

 

More than less, yes...  though I wouldn't call anything an "event" just yet.

 

It occurs to me upon reviewing the 18z oper. GFS that there are actually three distinct wave in the flow being dumped out of western Canada just through this next Sat (D6).  Each one races into the heals of the predecessor, and as discussed earlier causes wave-interference of the destructive variety.   However, each successive one is a bit more intense than the one preceding it, and the one later into Fri-Sat appears, for the time being, to be the most potent.  

 

Any one of these, however, could streak some cloud and snow in the air -- though the early in the week we are, we'd be talking liquid, too. 

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FWIW, I'm confused lol. Is there three different events?

 

The thread title is thru the 17th.Some folks say there's a snow threat on thursday..Some say there's not..some say there's one Friday..some say no..others say over the weekend..and others are calling for a 3-4 day snowstorm...I don't think anyone has any idea what the hell is going on.. starting with me

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I did and thought it was Thursday into Thursday night..But Steve said there's nothing thru the 17th? And then Tip was talking about the 18-19th..so what in the sam hell is going on here?

probably all of the above, seems disorganized and diffuse today, no signal for an organized storm. Literally nothing right now on ops but potential. Ens were stronger but they have weak diffuse members too.
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probably all of the above, seems disorganized and diffuse today, no signal for an organized storm. Literally nothing right now on ops but potential. Ens were stronger but they have weak diffuse members too.

 

Actually the operational EURO and GFS both have events on the 15-15th and 18-19th, they are differing degrees of intensity but the GFS seems to have gone towards the EURO idea of Saturday event the 18th-19th.  PNA rise is quite dramatic for the second and third northern stream disturbances, this leads to downstream troughing south of 40N latitude line indicating that cyclogenesis occurs either over SC/NC or VA capes.  This system will do quite well in producing snow after THursday timeframe.

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