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Jan 15-17th 2014 "Threat"


jamesnichols1989

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missing snow? you could always book Squaw Valley in Lake Tahoe...they avg 450 inches a year and are all excited over 2-4 inches this weekend...

It keeps making me feel good about the situation here, haha. It is mind blowing how excited Lake Tahoe is over a few inches of snow. Squaw just posted this picture on social media, all amped up over 3" of new snow. They are being worse than I am when it snows a little lol...the Tahoe ski areas all posting pictures of 1-4" of new snow with captions reading like its a massive dump. Normally they do this stuff when they get 1-4 feet.
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Definitely a healthy signal on the GEFS for a coastal event Tue night/Wed.  Timing differences between individual ens members will skew the means, but it looks like there are several ways to get a light/moderate snowfall into SNE.  Surface temps look marginal but that will, as always, depend on surface development and track.  I like inland, elevated spots best right now.  Any word on the Euro ensembles?


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It keeps making me feel good about the situation here, haha. It is mind blowing how excited Lake Tahoe is over a few inches of snow. Squaw just posted this picture on social media, all amped up over 3" of new snow. They are being worse than I am when it snows a little lol...the Tahoe ski areas all posting pictures of 1-4" of new snow with captions reading like its a massive dump. Normally they do this stuff when they get 1-4 feet.

 

lol....you'd expect that pic from the deep south folks.

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Depends what level...that could be the base. Squaw's base is lower than places like Apline Meadows. 275" sounds a tad low though because Blue Canyon at 5,000 feet averages 240" per year.

Ya i dont know there climo thaaaaat well but

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?camtsh+nca

That has 100" for 3500' city

But summit is "only" 6800' i can say w decent confidence 275-280 is summit of ski resort snowfall

Perhaps they get shadowed by mt Shasta or higher peaks near 14 k around them? (Over 2x their height)

Shasta ski resorts gets alot of rain for a Cali mtn thou being less than 7k. Alot of those big systems send levels to 7500-8000. Those resorts like mammoth w a 8000'+ base (its just not fair lol)

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What would be cool Will is riding a lift at Heavenly ski resort during a big storm. That mountain is actually traversing the rain snow elevation line alot. 6200' base 10k summit . Man what a diff in snowfall @ those elevations

 

6200' won't get a lot of rain. Even at Yosemite, the roads in have those pole markers for fire hydrants around 4,000ft.

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Ya i dont know there climo thaaaaat well but

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?camtsh+nca

That has 100" for 3500' city

But summit is "only" 6800' i can say w decent confidence 275-280 is summit of ski resort snowfall

Perhaps they get shadowed by mt Shasta or higher peaks near 14 k around them? (Over 2x their height)

Shasta ski resorts gets alot of rain for a Cali mtn thou being less than 7k. Alot of those big systems send levels to 7500-8000. Those resorts like mammoth w a 8000'+ base (its just not fair lol)

 

 

Oh that is for Shasta...you quoted allsnow's post which mentioned Squaw....I can see Shasta getting 275 because they are lower down.

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from hpc at 12:38 am:

THE MEAN TROUGH AND DIABATICALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE FAVORS

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LAKE ENHANCED AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION/SNOW

AROUND THE GREAT LAKES...AND IN THE MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHEAST WITH

THE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WED

15 JAN.

PETERSEN

When I read this on WPC website earlier today, the first thing I thought of was that you were going to post this when you saw it
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Oh that is for Shasta...you quoted allsnow's post which mentioned Squaw....I can see Shasta getting 275 because they are lower down.

Ya he was right. 450 or so. For some reason i was thinkin Shasta (prob after seeing Steve post pics if their bare terrain) anyhow should be cool event to watch play out.

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Yeah he has a major WPC fetish.

I do!  But I am alarmed at being so predictable....

 

Obviously I favor what is said by the Mets in here....but HPC does a reasonably good job in discussing and depicting the medium range don't you agree?  That being said, they aren't terribly excited for mid week as far as I can tell.  They show a wave reforming off the coast and moving out near the benchmark.  So Scott you could be right that it might be a boring week, but maybe not.

 

Didn't lose that much snow.  Still over 10 inches here.  Really need a refresher, 2-4 would work well.  I am home 17th to 26th so I'm looking for a real stretch of deepdeep.

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I do!  But I am alarmed at being so predictable....

 

Obviously I favor what is said by the Mets in here....but HPC does a reasonably good job in discussing and depicting the medium range don't you agree?  That being said, they aren't terribly excited for mid week as far as I can tell.  They show a wave reforming off the coast and moving out near the benchmark.  So Scott you could be right that it might be a boring week, but maybe not.

 

Didn't lose that much snow.  Still over 10 inches here.  Really need a refresher, 2-4 would work well.  I am home 17th to 26th so I'm looking for a real stretch of deepdeep.

 

Yeah they do a fine job. For the record, I still leave the door open for your area getting at least a small refresher up your way, but I have my doubts down here. I only mention that it could be a boring week because it's possible nothing works out down this way. I'll wait until today.

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This may end up just being a band of frontogenic precip that gives an inch or two to the higher elevations. We'll see what the 12z guidance does.

Yeah that's how it looks right now.  Guidance has trended less impressive.  Hoping for late-in-the-game trends.  Beyond Wed looks cold and dry for a few days.

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6200' won't get a lot of rain. Even at Yosemite, the roads in have those pole markers for fire hydrants around 4,000ft.

I watch snow levels there alot , they are often 6500-7000' prior to cold front pushing thru. The sierra snow lab even gets its fair share of rain at 6850' or so . No kidding both get buried with 20 and 25 feet of snow (respectively)but 8500' gets 35/40 feet and often doesnt get the occAsional rain that areas below 6500 get in between several feet of snow dumplings.

This event looks boring for most

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Yeah that's how it looks right now.  Guidance has trended less impressive.  Hoping for late-in-the-game trends.  Beyond Wed looks cold and dry for a few days.

 

The s/w was sharp and deserved to be watched, but I never had that giddy feeling towards this. Same with the 18th. Still some time for that one I suppose...but just my feeling.

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I watch snow levels there alot , they are often 6500-7000' prior to cold front pushing thru. The sierra snow lab even gets its fair share of rain at 6850' or so . No kidding both get buried with 20 or so feet of snow but 8500' gets 35/40 feet and often doesnt get the liquid that areas below 6500 get i between snow dumplings.

 

Yeah I'm always amazed how they get dumped there. It really is a cool place. Coming into the Sierra from the central valley is pretty dam epic.

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