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Jan 15-17th 2014 "Threat"


jamesnichols1989

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The EURO and GGEM are offshore with the surface low as it redevelops east of Cape May, NJ and heads Northeastward then northward over the BM and east of CHH.  GFS is much further west with the surface low track bringing rain over the coastal plain from PVD to BOS and points south and east.  Models are waffling and we are within 84 hours of the clipper entering the United States.  COld air bleeds eastward after the 15th cutter and a second shortwave amplifies the trough over the eastern US allowing storm on the coast.

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The 12z GFS is pretty impressive aloft.  Comparing it to other guidance, I think it might be underdone at the surface.  Really strong PVA and even develops a nice 700mb low over SNE.  I think it's wrong because it mysteriously lost the 1st s/w (which other guidance has), but if it's onto the right idea, I think we have a pretty strong coastal nor'easter in store.

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The 12z GFS is pretty impressive aloft.  Comparing it to other guidance, I think it might be underdone at the surface.  Really strong PVA and even develops a nice 700mb low over SNE.  I think it's wrong because it mysteriously lost the 1st s/w (which other guidance has), but if it's onto the right idea, I think we have a pretty strong coastal nor'easter in store.

 

I hardly think that the 12z GFS is right, I think the BZ moves further east as the GOM shortwave moves offshore first bringing the baroclinic zone offshore, leading to the second shortwave pushing further southeast than the GFS and more in line with the EURO and GGEM.

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I hardly think that the 12z GFS is right, I think the BZ moves further east as the GOM shortwave moves offshore first bringing the baroclinic zone offshore, leading to the second shortwave pushing further southeast than the GFS and more in line with the EURO and GGEM.

My thinking as well.  But all guidance shows an increase in trof amplitude and decrease in wavelength, so I'm hoping that there is enough vorticity with the follow up wave to tilt the trof negative and wrap some meaningful moisture back NW.

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The 18z GFS looks remarkably similar to the 12z aloft.  A little less wrapped up at H5 and everything nudged east.  Decent looking threat for PHL to BOS IMO.  I still think the slp could undergo a period of rapid deepening with this setup aloft... even if guidance does not currently show it.

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Looks like the 18z GFS took a small step towards other guidance through 90hrs with respect to the height field.  Looks like the "cooler" air bleeds in a little sooner and the baroclinic zone might edge east from 12z.  Good energy diving into the trof...

 

Yeah this looks more east than the last 12z run.  Right now it looks good for a decent sized snowstorm, 3-6" for central and eastern SNE and 6-12" for NNE.

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If this comes I'm sure it will be all washed away in another soaker 5 days later....seems to be the pattern this winter....

 

I don't love the cutters, either, but you gotta take what you can get.  After all, one way or another, winter's snows are inevitably washed away.

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I don't love the cutters, either, but you gotta take what you can get. After all, one way or another, winter's snows are inevitably washed away.

Something about the cutters that is just really irritating....three times this season a decent snow was followed by a cutter or brief torch.....I'm a pack kind of guy so to start off good and not even get a chance to add to it sucks donkey nuts.....january 2010-11 was tremendous.....

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Something about the cutters that is just really irritating....three times this season a decent snow was followed by a cutter or brief torch.....I'm a pack kind of guy so to start off good and not even get a chance to add to it sucks donkey nuts.....january 2010-11 was tremendous.....

Good thing the pattern is changing
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Good thing the pattern is changing

 

Well you vets on here know better than I and I'm pulling for it.....so far this season is sucking wind.....if we don't get something going in the next 3 weeks we'll be into February and counting the days to the bloom of Forsythia and Crocus'.....seems it happens earlier every year.....and I'll be singing "Sweet FML" for the next 8 months.....

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Well you vets on here know better than I and I'm pulling for it.....so far this season is sucking wind.....if we don't get something going in the next 3 weeks we'll be into February and counting the days to the bloom of Forsythia and Crocus'.....seems it happens earlier every year.....and I'll be singing "Sweet FML" for the next 8 months.....

where you like one month old last Jan?
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where you like one month old last Jan?

 

LOL well at the risk of totally forgetting last Jan was not memorable for me either way.....certainly last years highlight came in Feb....the blizzard was pretty epic here.....I have video of some moron driving up my road in the middle of it and getting stuck and then I sat there and took video footage instead of going out and helping him....couple other neighbors helped out but he barely got out of there....plows were non existent through the early morning hours when it was raging.....only other storm that compares to that one in my 9 years here was Feb 2006......but last years was a legit blizzard here....

 

Anyway....I'm not as good at remembering the individual storms like some on here....I wish I was....

 

Waiting for Winter.....

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lol...

 

too many peeps loose perspective. if you've moved around like I have the past couple years, you'd realize it aint all that bad around here. if you want to know what it feels like to struggle to squeeze out melting snowflakes, move to Charlotte for a winter.

 

I haven't lost perspective.....I lived 32 years in the SF Bay Area.....I know what winters without snow and cold are like.....I would miss it if I ever moved back home......

 

Waiting for Winter

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lol...

 

too many peeps loose perspective. if you've moved around like I have the past couple years, you'd realize it aint all that bad around here. if you want to know what it feels like to struggle to squeeze out melting snowflakes, move to Charlotte for a winter.

 

 

Sorry if that was a bit dicky....I didn't mean it to be....Come on Winter!!!!

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I haven't lost perspective.....I lived 32 years in the SF Bay Area.....I know what winters without snow and cold are like.....I would miss it if I ever moved back home......

 

Waiting for Winter

You are above normal for snow, way below for cold, you live south of the Pike, snow melts, did you forget where you were all of last Dec, most of Jan?
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You are above normal for snow, way below for cold, you live south of the Pike, snow melts, did you forget where you were all of last Dec, most of Jan?

 

Eh....probably.....gotta admit I would prefer to get my snow in high impact events.....the nickel and dime type approach isn't going to do it for me especially when it doesn't stick around.....and I get bummed when the snow melts in January.....oh well....

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