mitchnick Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Looks like a nino with a solid +pdo to me. 3.4 still improving. Slowly but surely. sure does idk which map is better, but the map below shows more detail of continued warming in spots that seem to be expanding over time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 When is the next update from CPC due? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 When is the next update from CPC due? That was issued today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised to see the PDO head toward neutral for DEC before rebounding...anyway...a degree on either side of normal for DEC wouldn't surprise me...these are +PDO warm neutral/weak nino Decembers..the nino configuration is there, but we're on the fringe of the negative anomaly area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Doug K going with 18-25" along 95 and 25-50" N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Doug K going with 18-25" along 95 and 25-50" N and W. Sounds about right and I believe is in line with what some others have called for on their own outlooks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 If anyone's interested in reading yet another winter outlook, I posted mine in the main board: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44944-my-winter-outlook-2014-15/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 If anyone's interested in reading yet another winter outlook, I posted mine in the main board: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44944-my-winter-outlook-2014-15/ nice job...I skipped immediately to the reveal, but I'll read the body later...looks in line with consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 nice job...I skipped immediately to the reveal, but I'll read the body later...looks in line with consensus Thanks man. Good work with your forecast as well BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 FWIW, Nino has weakened in all regions after the week long spike....probably a 0.9 or 1.0 tomorrow, but down to around 0.8 now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for 19NOV2014 22.6 0.8 26.0 1.0 27.5 0.9 29.5 0.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The new JAMSTEC is predicting ~+1.0 for DJF in Nino 3.4. Last month's prediction was near +0.9 and September's map had ~+0.8 fwiw. Also, it is predicting the eastern and southern US for DJF to be about as cold as any part of the globe. Only two parts of Asia are similarly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 It's a total gut feeling, but I think lots of us outside the cities see a little accumulating snow this month sometime. Wouldn't have been too shocking to say that 30-40 years ago, but accumulating November snow seems rarer than April snow since I can remember. I get my degree back, mattie g! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I get my degree back, mattie g! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 WAG? Next week - cold Thanksgiving week - seasonably warm, with a couple days of 60+, maybe T-day? Week of 12/1 - normal with a cold shot and a chance of snow if we can time something week of 12/8 - Warm week of 12/15 - Seasonably cool week of 12/22 - Cold and snowy Bump. No torch in the Mid Atlantic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Bump. No torch in the Mid Atlantic... And yes there were a couple of 60+ days in the final week of Nov. Nice call so far Matt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Bump. No torch in the Mid Atlantic... yes...pretty close to normal, though overnight lows should keep give DCA some plus departures...having a SE trough is nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 And yes there were a couple of 60+ days in the final week of Nov. Nice call so far Matt! thanks, though going for 60+ when your average high is still in the low to mid 50s is not bold prediction,...our snow climo is wretched right now, but I still like cold vs warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 thanks, though going for 60+ when your average high is still in the low to mid 50s is not bold prediction,...our snow climo is wretched right now, but I still like cold vs warm.. You're very level-headed and modest, which a great quality in long-range. I would say it was bolder than your thinking because we were at the midst of an extremely cold November when you said it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Dec 0- +1 Jan -1 - -2 Feb -1 - -2 Snow DCA 12-15 I'm liking my December call from way back!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Dec 0- +1 Jan -1 - -2 Feb -1 - -2 Snow DCA 12-15 I was too cool for December and I may be too high on snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I was too cool for December and I may be too high on snow If you meant 12-15 flakes, you'll be spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Dec 0- +1 Jan -1 - -2 Feb -1 - -2 Snow DCA 12-15 Nailing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Dec 0- +1 Jan -1 - -2 Feb -1 - -2 Snow DCA 12-15 Since we are grading from November Dec B Jan A Feb B+ Snow A- Overall...B++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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