Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[AlaskaETC]

I can't believe I'm posting in a winter thread, but...

 

 

We didn't have a particularly cold winter that year though.  If I'm not mistaken, wouldn't warmer waters in the Gulf of Alaska promote a ridge in that area, which would result in better chances for shots of colder air into the uper Midwest and Northeast?

 

Yeah, good point. You are probably right. Also would like to see the impact of cooler waters off Newfoundland would have if it sticks around.

[AlaskaETC]

Also, the guy at this blog thinks a SE ridge may spoil the East Coast winter this year.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/07/current-water-temperatures-support.html

[Bob Chill]

Yeah, good point. You are probably right. Also would like to see the impact of cooler waters off Newfoundland would have if it sticks around.

It's probably insignificant. There's a very loose correlation that it can possibly favor a -nao but there is no real connection. I believe Will (ORH) from the sne forum has posted about this. The area of cool water is just too small to make a big impact on lw circulation.

As for the se ridge guy, if we have a +nao during a Nino it can be a problem. Tag team a goa vortex and its a huge problem. I'm not even remotely concerned at this lead. The only thing worth watching is the state of the developing Nino and to a lesser extent, ssta's in the ne Pac.

In a couple months we can start tracking the snow cover stuff. But even that last year mostly busted (luckily in our favor).

Nino's arent usually cold on the means here. They bring an active stj and that's what we need for miller A's. Even after big dumps in 09-10, melting took place fairly quickly considering the snow was 100' deep.

[mitchnick]

Also, the guy at this blog thinks a SE ridge may spoil the East Coast winter this year.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/07/current-water-temperatures-support.html

meh, temps as warm off the SE coast 7/27/09 too

[mattie g]

It's probably insignificant. There's a very loose correlation that it can possibly favor a -nao but there is no real connection. I believe Will (ORH) from the sne forum has posted about this. The area of cool water is just too small to make a big impact on lw circulation.

As for the se ridge guy, if we have a +nao during a Nino it can be a problem. Tag team a goa vortex and its a huge problem. I'm not even remotely concerned at this lead. The only thing worth watching is the state of the developing Nino and to a lesser extent, ssta's in the ne Pac.

In a couple months we can start tracking the snow cover stuff. But even that last year mostly busted (luckily in our favor).

Nino's arent usually cold on the means here. They bring an active stj and that's what we need for miller A's. Even after big dumps in 09-10, melting took place fairly quickly considering the snow was 100' deep.

 

That was one of the best things about that winter.  That, and a mid-late massive couple weeks, with a quick turn to mild afterwards, made it so sweet.

[Bob Chill]

That was one of the best things about that winter. That, and a mid-late massive couple weeks, with a quick turn to mild afterwards, made it so sweet.

After last year, I'll gladly trade # events for size of events. 3 decent and 3 mild events spread over 12 weeks would be fine as long as 1 is an EC special. Miller A radar extrapolation is fun as heck. It's been a while. The feb storm last year was pretty bad ass but it was a bit convoluted compared to a right up the coast 850 and close on the heels ull.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Something I've been thinking about- since 1950, we've never had more than four consecutive years where DJF was not officially in an El Nino. If we don't have one this winter that would be five years... small sample size, I know, but odds seem to favor at least a weak (but official) El Nino event.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[AlaskaETC]

After last year, I'll gladly trade # events for size of events. 3 decent and 3 mild events spread over 12 weeks would be fine as long as 1 is an EC special. Miller A radar extrapolation is fun as heck. It's been a while. The feb storm last year was pretty bad ass but it was a bit convoluted compared to a right up the coast 850 and close on the heels ull.

 

I'm torn between quantity and quality to be honest. I want snow to come around more often than not, but I love Nor'easters...

[T. August]

I'll take a 3-4 foot NC-ME sub-zero blizzard, and that can be the only event.

[RIC_WX]

Also, the guy at this blog thinks a SE ridge may spoil the East Coast winter this year.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/07/current-water-temperatures-support.html

You need the SE ridge, if there is any semblance of a block the SE ridge is what causes the miller A systems to turn into it and slow down, delivering copious snowfall to the mid atlantic in the process.  No block and suppression, out to sea.

 

Look at some of the synoptic setups for big miller A style KU events in the region, the difference between -10C at 850 and +10C is frequently 200 miles or less, with the center of circulation in between.

 

Obviously, if the ridge is too strong or block is too weak, get out the umbrellas.

[nflwxman]

You need the SE ridge, if there is any semblance of a block the SE ridge is what causes the miller A systems to turn into it and slow down, delivering copious snowfall to the mid atlantic in the process.  No block and suppression, out to sea.

 

Look at some of the synoptic setups for big miller A style KU events in the region, the difference between -10C at 850 and +10C is frequently 200 miles or less, with the center of circulation in between.

 

Obviously, if the ridge is too strong or block is too weak, get out the umbrellas.

Exactly.  A favorable -NAO can be aided by the existence of a SE ridge and create the OBX to Nantucket bowling alley of storms we saw in 09-10.  Otherwise, it's suppression city.

[mitchnick]

the CFS2 is already seeing a similar temp setup as 09/10....recall how Maine was above normal that year? check this out

[mitchnick]

and here's the CFS2 temp map for just JAN.......looking better and better and similar to 09/10

[uncle W]

Something I've been thinking about- since 1950, we've never had more than four consecutive years where DJF was not officially in an El Nino. If we don't have one this winter that would be five years... small sample size, I know, but odds seem to favor at least a weak (but official) El Nino event.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

using the mei index going back to the 1870's there have been longer periods between el ninos...it is still not certain it will make it to an official el nino this year...

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html

[mattie g]

After last year, I'll gladly trade # events for size of events. 3 decent and 3 mild events spread over 12 weeks would be fine as long as 1 is an EC special. Miller A radar extrapolation is fun as heck. It's been a while. The feb storm last year was pretty bad ass but it was a bit convoluted compared to a right up the coast 850 and close on the heels ull.

 

Miller As really are a blast to watch forming...unless you're on the rain/snow line.  Then it's just nervewracking and frustrating as hell because the rain always wins out.  

[mitchnick]

Euro long rage forecast from July, now available on Euro site.....although it's at its max range, it's really starting to look good

the free site only has a S American map that goes up through near VA/NC border, but you can still get a good idea for DCA/BWI area

temps

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_2tm!2m%20temperature!4%20months!South%20America!201407!tercile%20summary!/

precip (very, very nice)

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_rain!2m%20temperature!4%20months!South%20America!201407!tercile%20summary/

ENSO (warmth in areas 3 - 3.4)

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_sst!mean%20sea%20level%20pressure!4%20months!South%20America!201407!tercile%20summary/

[GaWx]

Something I've been thinking about- since 1950, we've never had more than four consecutive years where DJF was not officially in an El Nino. If we don't have one this winter that would be five years... small sample size, I know, but odds seem to favor at least a weak (but official) El Nino event.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Yes, but the winters 1942-3 through 1950-51 very likely would have had no El Niño had official table gone back that far. Also, I believe the same could probably be said about 1931-2 through 1938-9 though 1935-6 was at least a close call to weak. This is based on 3.4 data supported by JMA data as well as SOI.

[GaWx]

It's probably insignificant. There's a very loose correlation that it can possibly favor a -nao but there is no real connection. I believe Will (ORH) from the sne forum has posted about this. The area of cool water is just too small to make a big impact on lw circulation.

As for the se ridge guy, if we have a +nao during a Nino it can be a problem. Tag team a goa vortex and its a huge problem. I'm not even remotely concerned at this lead. The only thing worth watching is the state of the developing Nino and to a lesser extent, ssta's in the ne Pac.

In a couple months we can start tracking the snow cover stuff. But even that last year mostly busted (luckily in our favor).

Nino's arent usually cold on the means here. They bring an active stj and that's what we need for miller A's. Even after big dumps in 09-10, melting took place fairly quickly considering the snow was 100' deep.

All ninos averaged together haven't been cold because strong ones are usually pretty mild overall. However, if you isolate weak ones, you'll find those to be cold on average. A fair # of the coldest winters in the eastern us have been weak Ninos

[WinterWxLuvr]

The heck with most of you...I say bring on the frequent events. Mattie I hope we don't break freezing from Nov to March

[mattie g]

The heck with most of you...I say bring on the frequent events. Mattie I hope we don't break freezing from Nov to March

I hope we get 200" of snow from 10 events, and it all melts within five days of each storm.

[Eskimo Joe]

Tony Pann from WBAL just posted this on his Facebook page:  https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204490213443462&set=a.1547282850109.2073252.1476194159&type=1&theater 

[AlaskaETC]

Hopefully the winter of 2014/2015 will be the winter that I will tell my kids and grandkids about...

[snowfan]

For some, that was last winter, 09/10 or 02/03. 

 

Love the optimism, but I think people are setting themselves up for failure if they're looking for a repeat of last year. Am big on history and history says it isn't happening. 

Hopefully the winter of 2014/2015 will be the winter that I will tell my kids and grandkids about...

[AlaskaETC]

For some, that was last winter, 09/10 or 02/03. 

 

Love the optimism, but I think people are setting themselves up for failure if they're looking for a repeat of last year. Am big on history and history says it isn't happening. 

 

Never rule out an outlier or Black Swan.

 

I am 24, and wasn't around the area to see 96, 02/03, or 09/10, and last winter wasn't that memorable compared to some of the winters I saw in Reno during college....basically, I am looking for a winter that brings my first major blizzard.

[clskinsfan]

Never rule out an outlier or Black Swan.

 

I am 24, and wasn't around the area to see 96, 02/03, or 09/10, and last winter wasn't that memorable compared to some of the winters I saw in Reno during college....basically, I am looking for a winter that brings my first major blizzard.

 

I dont know what your definition of memorable is. But last winter was the third snowiest in history in my town. It snowed for 4 months. And it included a 20 inch snowstorm. It really doesnt get a lot better than last winter here.

[WVclimo]

For some, that was last winter, 09/10 or 02/03. 

 

Love the optimism, but I think people are setting themselves up for failure if they're looking for a repeat of last year. Am big on history and history says it isn't happening.

Having back to back AN seasons in DC isn't all that rare. Happened in the 80's, the late 70's, the mid '60s, the late 50's, the mid 1930s and most of the 1900-10 decade.

[mattie g]

I dont know what your definition of memorable is. But last winter was the third snowiest in history in my town. It snowed for 4 months. And it included a 20 inch snowstorm. It really doesnt get a lot better than last winter here.

You guys did way better than Arlington did. It's not even worth comparing. I probably got 10+" more than they did, and I'd say it was memorable for length of winter. No truly *great* storms though.

[WinterWxLuvr]

You guys did way better than Arlington did. It's not even worth comparing. I probably got 10+" more than they did, and I'd say it was memorable for length of winter. No truly *great* storms though.

I think my total was around 60". What was memorable though, for me, was it seemed to snow constantly from New Years through St Paddy's.

[mattie g]

I think my total was around 60". What was memorable though, for me, was it seemed to snow constantly from New Years through St Paddy's.

True. It just wanted to snow. That was pretty cool, but those of us farther east and more south had to deal with some changing over here and there in the smaller events. Losing a couple inches across a few events makes a pretty big difference in the overall account.

[MN Transplant]

True. It just wanted to snow. That was pretty cool, but those of us farther east and more south had to deal with some changing over here and there in the smaller events. Losing a couple inches across a few events makes a pretty big difference in the overall account.

 

If we didn't have 09/10, last winter would have been considered awesome.  As it was, it was mostly awesome.