Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[AlaskaETC]

Highest PDO since 97. I wasn't on the east coast in 97-98. Was that a good year?

 

We had 0.1 inches of snow....

[WxUSAF]

Highest PDO since 97. I wasn't on the east coast in 97-98. Was that a good year?

For some it was really good I think.  

[WVclimo]

We had 0.1 inches of snow....

22.5" at Martinsburg, just slightly below average. That's how close that winter was to being decent in the metro areas. Just a few degrees difference in all those rain storms with good coastal tracks...

[Bob Chill]

hee hee. I'm an awful troll. Like JV benchwarmer style. 

[mitchnick]

I was looking at the PDO records last night and saw that high number

my only concern is that you have to go back to 86/87 before you find a winter with a comparably high PDO for October that was decent

in fact, there were a lot of high October PDOs (>1.25) since then and the winters that followed were carp while the great winters of 95/96, 02/03 and 09/10 were not that high at all in October

so I'm not sure how to feel about the Oct PDO number really even though I would have been very happy if I hadn't looked back at the old Oct. numbers

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Highest PDO since 97. I wasn't on the east coast in 97-98. Was that a good year?

 

Warm, very rainy, snowless. I don't think the sun was out for the entire month of February- I have no stats to back this up but I've always remembered that as like the longest stretch of cloudy days ever.

[Deck Pic]

I was looking at the PDO records last night and saw that high number

my only concern is that you have to go back to 86/87 before you find a winter with a comparably high PDO for October that was decent

in fact, there were a lot of high October PDOs (>1.25) since then and the winters that followed were carp while the great winters of 95/96, 02/03 and 09/10 were not that high at all in October

so I'm not sure how to feel about the Oct PDO number really even though I would have been very happy if I hadn't looked back at the old Oct. numbers

 

If by a lot, you mean 3, then good point......the number means very little...It is a fall month...it is good in the sense that +PDO octobers very rarely lead to negative PDO winters....In terms of those 3 winters 87-88 was a cold and not a bad winter....93-94 was a not a great snow winter but we know epic cold...and 97-98 only sucked because it was a super nino....There is zero discernible pattern...not one of your better posts..

[Bob Chill]

Going beyond the numerical index, 02-03 looked like a more robust +PDO config than where we are right now. As you and others taught me years ago, numerical indices only tell part of the picture. The actual conditions of what the indices represent is much more important. The nao index is probably the most important to look at MSLP and h5 anomalies vs the # itself. Seeing a -nao reading and assuming it will help with a storm threat isn't a good method.

 

Personally, I think the npac as a whole looks great. Not too hung up on the # either way.  

[mitchnick]

If by a lot, you mean 3, then good point......the number means very little...It is a fall month...it is good in the sense that +PDO octobers very rarely lead to negative PDO winters....In terms of those 3 winters 87-88 was a cold and not a bad winter....93-94 was a not a great snow winter but we know epic cold...and 97-98 only sucked because it was a super nino....There is zero discernible pattern...not one of your better posts..

there is a pattern, generally lousy snow winters that followed high Oct. PDO's

and snowfall is the only pattern that counts for me and probably many on the board

in fact, looking back beyond 86/87, the great winters of the 60's did not have high Oct. PDO numbers

look, it may be purely coincidence and this winter will be completely different, but it is what it is

here's the link for anyone who cares to see what I'm talking about

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[mitchnick]

Going beyond the numerical index, 02-03 looked like a more robust +PDO config than where we are right now. As you and others taught me years ago, numerical indices only tell part of the picture. The actual conditions of what the indices represent is much more important. The nao index is probably the most important to look at MSLP and h5 anomalies vs the # itself. Seeing a -nao reading and assuming it will help with a storm threat isn't a good method.

 

Personally, I think the npac as a whole looks great. Not too hung up on the # either way.  

and I agree 100% and have said as much, but I was surprised to see this Oct. number so much higher than previous decent winters

maybe it's just one of those inexplicable anomalies, who knows

[Bob Chill]

and I agree 100% and have said as much, but I was surprised to see this Oct. number so much higher than previous decent winters

maybe it's just one of those inexplicable anomalies, who knows

 

I don't know how it's calculated but my guess is the high number is more a result of very warm waters in the eastern part of the pac and not the cool anoms in the western/central regions. Total guess though. I have no idea.

[mitchnick]

I don't know how it's calculated but my guess is the high number is more a result of very warm waters in the eastern part of the pac and not the cool anoms in the western/central regions. Total guess though. I have no idea.

my weenie mind says the outrageously high number is because this winter will be so much greater than prior winters, but that's not possible is it Santa Claus?

[WVclimo]

It may be putting too fine a point on it, using an isolated value for one month. Nov 2002 had a comparable value, and that didn't lead to too many problems. Maybe NPAC sst's just lined up a few weeks earlier this year ?

Looking for trend lines in that chart reveals some of the seasons that have been discussed all fall here and elsewhere. PDO+ for the SOND period, and rising toward game time in '02-03, '86-87, '76-77, '57-58, '40-41, '36-37, '34-35. Lots to like from that small list.

[ORH_wxman]

there is a pattern, generally lousy snow winters that followed high Oct. PDO's

and snowfall is the only pattern that counts for me and probably many on the board

in fact, looking back beyond 86/87, the great winters of the 60's did not have high Oct. PDO numbers

look, it may be purely coincidence and this winter will be completely different, but it is what it is

here's the link for anyone who cares to see what I'm talking about

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

 

I think that unless you can find a physical explanation for poor snow and October PDO values above 1.25 (esp with a limited sample), then you might be looking at a case of correlation ≠ causation.

 

I would think something like the STJ has a much more important role there than the Oct PDO number.

[mitchnick]

I think that unless you can find a physical explanation for poor snow and October PDO values above 1.25 (esp with a limited sample), then you might be looking at a case of correlation ≠ causation.

 

I would think something like the STJ has a much more important role there than the Oct PDO number.

I agree, which is why I said it may be purely coincidence, but my original post basically said that I didn't know what to make of what I would have considered good news but for prior Octobers

[Deck Pic]

there is a pattern, generally lousy snow winters that followed high Oct. PDO's

and snowfall is the only pattern that counts for me and probably many on the board

in fact, looking back beyond 86/87, the great winters of the 60's did not have high Oct. PDO numbers

look, it may be purely coincidence and this winter will be completely different, but it is what it is

here's the link for anyone who cares to see what I'm talking about

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

there is no pattern...sorry....and the sample size is small...There is no reason to pay it any attention other than to say that positive October PDO pretty much means positive winter PDO.  

[Deck Pic]

October PDO over 1 for DCA - I can't believe I am wasting my time with this...it is arbitrary and couldn't be more meaningless, especially as an isolated factor, and yet it still produces an average slightly higher than our long term average...

 

23-24: 21.4"

26-27: 2.3"

34-35: 31.4"

36-37: 20.2"

40-41: 17.9"

41-42: 13.6"

57-58: 40.4"

69-70: 14.0"

76-77: 11.1"

79-80: 20.1"

80-81: 4.5"

86-87: 31.1"

87-88: 25.0"

93-94: 13.2"

97-98: 0.1"

 

Average: 17.8"

[mitchnick]

October PDO over 1 for DCA - I can't believe I am wasting my time with this...it is arbitrary and couldn't be more meaningless, especially as an isolated factor, and yet it still produces an average slightly higher than our long term average...

 

23-24: 21.4"

26-27: 2.3"

34-35: 31.4"

36-37: 20.2"

40-41: 17.9"

41-42: 13.6"

57-58: 40.4"

69-70: 14.0"

76-77: 11.1"

79-80: 20.1"

80-81: 4.5"

86-87: 31.1"

87-88: 25.0"

93-94: 13.2"

97-98: 0.1"

 

Average: 17.8"

lol I can't you're wasting your time on it either!

in any event, I was looking at those closer to 1.5 and higher

no matter, the list you posted only has 2 what I believe can be called "great" winters, which just confirms what I was thinking

namely, Octobers with a PDO number of 1.5 or higher would be followed by more great winters than not, but that's not the case for whatever reason; hopefully, this year is one where it comes through for us

 

welp, we've beat that dead horse, when do those 12z EC ensembles come out again?   

[WinterWxLuvr]

October PDO over 1 for DCA - I can't believe I am wasting my time with this...it is arbitrary and couldn't be more meaningless, especially as an isolated factor, and yet it still produces an average slightly higher than our long term average...

 

23-24: 21.4"

26-27: 2.3"

34-35: 31.4"

36-37: 20.2"

40-41: 17.9"

41-42: 13.6"

57-58: 40.4"

69-70: 14.0"

76-77: 11.1"

79-80: 20.1"

80-81: 4.5"

86-87: 31.1"

87-88: 25.0"

93-94: 13.2"

97-98: 0.1"

 

Average: 17.8"

 

As an unbiased observer to this discussion............I'd say there's no pattern there.  Those numbers are literally all over the place.

 

I can't believe the 97-98 winter.   That must have been awful.

[mattie g]

As an unbiased observer to this discussion............I'd say there's no pattern there. Those numbers are literally all over the place.

I can't believe the 97-98 winter. That must have been awful.

That was my first year in DC: Luckily it was my first year out of college and I spent most of it living in a house of five guys who were perpetually in a stupor.

What was it like in your neck of the woods?

[WVclimo]

Here is Baltimore in those seasons: 9 above and 6 below the current average:

23-24: 33.6"

26-27: 8.5"

34-35: 29.2"

36-37: 25.6"

40-41: 23.9"

41-42: 26.3"

57-58: 43.0"

69-70: 21.0"

76-77: 11.1"

79-80: 14.6"

80-81: 4.6"

86-87: 35.2"

87-88: 20.4"

93-94: 17.3"

97-98: 3.2"

[WinterWxLuvr]

That was my first year in DC: Luckily it was my first year out of college and I spent most of it living in a house of five guys who were perpetually in a stupor.

What was it like in your neck of the woods?

It was an active year. In SWVA, where I was then, it was highly elevation dependent. I remember in the crazy storm at the end of January, at 1500 feet there was almost no snow, at 2500 feet there was over 2 feet.

[Sparky]

Highest PDO since 97. I wasn't on the east coast in 97-98. Was that a good year?

That winter had several powerful nor'easters in January and February.

[GaWx]

I get daily numbers and 3.4 was at 1.16 which is the highest it has been...

 

  This rather rapid late warming is reminding me of 1939-40, which is an analog I've been using for 2014-5 for much of the E US.

  Also, the TAO map, which shows the average of the preceding five days. is the warmest it has been to date by a good margin. Taken literally, it is showing 3.4 near or a little warmer than +1.1 for 11/14-18 averaged. It wouldn't surprise me if the weekly released this Monday is at +1.0 and maybe even as warm as +1.1. Keep in mind, however, that the ONI (trimonthlies) is based on what has recently been a cooler dataset with regard to anomalies (~0.2 cooler recently though the discrepancy was narrowing) and also it tends to largely ignore shortlived spikes since it is a three month average. Regardless, any fears that we wouldn't actually get a Nino should be just about over now I'd think.

 

[Deck Pic]

  This rather rapid late warming is reminding me of 1939-40, which is an analog I've been using for 2014-5 for much of the E US.

  Also, the TAO map, which shows the average of the preceding five days. is the warmest it has been to date by a good margin. Taken literally, it is showing 3.4 near or a little warmer than +1.1 for 11/14-18 averaged. It wouldn't surprise me if the weekly released this Monday is at +1.0 and maybe even as warm as +1.1. Keep in mind, however, that the ONI (trimonthlies) is based on what has recently been a cooler dataset with regard to anomalies (~0.2 cooler recently though the discrepancy was narrowing) and also it tends to largely ignore shortlived spikes since it is a three month average. Regardless, any fears that we wouldn't actually get a Nino should be just about over now I'd think.

 

TAO5DaysEnding111814.gif

 

Thanks..39-40 is one of my 4 primary analogs...I'm not too worried about ONI which as you know uses a reconstructed dataset....if the satellite data shows nino conditions...we have nino conditions...

[uncle W]

Thanks..39-40 is one of my 4 primary analogs...I'm not too worried about ONI which as you know uses a reconstructed dataset....if the satellite data shows nino conditions...we have nino conditions...

mei was similar to this year...It was a weak enso but the next two years were el ninos...JMA was similar also...

[Deck Pic]

They're catching on

 

[AlaskaETC]

Looks much better....

 

I would say that I feel pretty good about our chances for above average snowfall, still slightly worried about hostile patterns, but my fear isn't as strong as it was a few weeks ago.

[mitchnick]

They're catching on

 

based on the comments I've seen from Coastalwx in the NE forum, that looks a lot like the Euro winter forecast, especially with that strip of AN precip along the coast

[Bob Chill]

Looks like a nino with a solid +pdo to me. 3.4 still improving. Slowly but surely.