mitchnick Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I was a late bloomer too, so who knows. At least my mother always assured me of that. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Euro weeklies aren't a disaster but they aren't what we want to see for the first half of Dec for snow chances. Warmish but not torch for the first half of the month. Decent at higher latitudes but not good for the eastern half of the country. The weeklies totally missed the current period we're in now but that could be because of nuri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Yeah, the only years close in terms of the timing of this Nino is 58-59 and to a lesser extent, 94-95. The GFS is modeling a few easterly wind bursts which may temporarily stall the warming, but still no one would have predicted a weekly 3.4 index over 1.0 a few weeks ago going into November. I like the looks of that forecast because it will warm the area EAST of the dateline, which is where we in the MA want the warming to be centered if memory serves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Euro weeklies aren't a disaster but they aren't what we want to see for the first half of Dec for snow chances. Warmish but not torch for the first half of the month. Decent at higher latitudes but not good for the eastern half of the country. The weeklies totally missed the current period we're in now but that could be because of nuri. stormy period after 12/20....before then, not counting on anything..end of December could be dirty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 stormy period after 12/20....before then, not counting on anything..end of December could be dirty Things sure seem to be progressing almost textbook good. Pac may look near perfect as we close Nov. I'm not worried about the weeklies. I was just relaying how they looked. No sign of a big +ao or hideous ak vortex. Basically an easy pattern to step into a good one and not a hostile one that will fight. Looks like CA may get into a storm cycle. Hopefully socal gets into the goods. They need it bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Definitely starting to look like a Pac torch after day 9 on the Euro and GFS, we still have a -AO, but a +NAO + EPO pattern is starting to form. End of November and early December maybe quite warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I'm having a hard time believing the long range forecast because 1) they totally missed the cold in NOV until the last 5 days of OCT, more or less, 2) SSTA are kicking butt from the N PAC, ENSO PAC and N. Atlantic tripole, and 3) blocking over the N Pole. Add to that the changing wavelengths due to seasonal factors, and they can't be trusted. Sure, they could be right, but I think they are all much lower confidence than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I'm having a hard time believing the long range forecast because 1) they totally missed the cold in NOV until the last 5 days of OCT, more or less, 2) SSTA are kicking butt from the N PAC, ENSO PAC and N. Atlantic tripole, and 3) blocking over the N Pole. Add to that the changing wavelengths due to seasonal factors, and they can't be trusted. Sure, they could be right, but I think they are all much lower confidence than usual. All good points. The -EPO/-AO/Scandanavian ridge combination is a very stable longwave pattern. I think it will relax a bit, but I expect that relaxation will get pushed back into T-giving week a little more. And aside from maybe a warm day or two ahead of a cutter, I wouldn't call the pattern we may go into a "torch". With cold air still available in Canada, I'd say we're seasonable or slightly above normal on the averages for a time, IF the pattern advertised around Day 10-15 ends up happening. People will probably freak out because we'll have "lost" this good pattern in November and then have a more seasonable pattern to end November/start December, but I think this pattern of -EPO/-AO/Scand. ridge will be back with a vengeance at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 All good points. The -EPO/-AO/Scandanavian ridge combination is a very stable longwave pattern. I think it will relax a bit, but I expect that relaxation will get pushed back into T-giving week a little more. And aside from maybe a warm day or two ahead of a cutter, I wouldn't call the pattern we may go into a "torch". With cold air still available in Canada, I'd say we're seasonable or slightly above normal on the averages for a time, IF the pattern advertised around Day 10-15 ends up happening. People will probably freak out because we'll have "lost" this good pattern in November and then have a more seasonable pattern to end November/start December, but I think this pattern of -EPO/-AO/Scand. ridge will be back with a vengeance at some point. my guess is we have a chance to time something fluky near our 12/5 wheelhouse, but I think we have a warm shot somewhere in the 1st half of the month...maybe around the 10th...none of this 70 degree B.S. ....a 3-4 day period of +10 departures.....then a step down with cold and warm oscillating...then the hammer drops...I'll go on record right now that we are getting a snowstorm the last 10 days of december....What do I have to lose? If we get one, I'll bump this thread, and if we don't everyone will forget about it....but all kidding aside...snowstorm 12/20-12/31....and not some Westminster only crap....3-6"+ in DC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 my guess is we have a chance to time something fluky near our 12/5 wheelhouse, but I think we have a warm shot somewhere in the 1st half of the month...maybe around the 10th...none of this 70 degree B.S. ....a 3-4 day period of +10 departures.....then a step down with cold and warm oscillating...then the hammer drops...I'll go on record right now that we are getting a snowstorm the last 10 days of december....What do I have to lose? If we get one, I'll bump this thread, and if we don't everyone will forget about it....but all kidding aside...snowstorm 12/20-12/31....and not some Westminster only crap....3-6"+ in DC.... yeah, it didn't take long for me to get sick of hearing that already lol can't wait for the next 4 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 It would be unprecedented in recent history to bloom so late so it would be cool to see how it impacts the lw pattern in the winter months. A unique analog for sure in the enso department. The whole look of the pac is great. Clear cut +PDO config and now enso starting to ripen. The +PDO should strengthen even more over the next week to 10 days as it looks like several strong lows moving off the coast of japan and temps below to well below normal over the pdo region for a while. I'm not sure we could ask for a better looking pac config going into winter. WAG? Next week - cold Thanksgiving week - seasonably warm, with a couple days of 60+, maybe T-day? Week of 12/1 - normal with a cold shot and a chance of snow if we can time something week of 12/8 - Warm week of 12/15 - Seasonably cool week of 12/22 - Cold and snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 my guess is we have a chance to time something fluky near our 12/5 wheelhouse, but I think we have a warm shot somewhere in the 1st half of the month...maybe around the 10th...none of this 70 degree B.S. ....a 3-4 day period of +10 departures.....then a step down with cold and warm oscillating...then the hammer drops...I'll go on record right now that we are getting a snowstorm the last 10 days of december....What do I have to lose? If we get one, I'll bump this thread, and if we don't everyone will forget about it....but all kidding aside...snowstorm 12/20-12/31....and not some Westminster only crap....3-6"+ in DC.... yes, you ARE fixated on Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 my guess is we have a chance to time something fluky near our 12/5 wheelhouse, but I think we have a warm shot somewhere in the 1st half of the month...maybe around the 10th...none of this 70 degree B.S. ....a 3-4 day period of +10 departures.....then a step down with cold and warm oscillating...then the hammer drops...I'll go on record right now that we are getting a snowstorm the last 10 days of december....What do I have to lose? If we get one, I'll bump this thread, and if we don't everyone will forget about it....but all kidding aside...snowstorm 12/20-12/31....and not some Westminster only crap....3-6"+ in DC.... Back and forth is fine. We get our best storms as the pattern changes and flexes, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I'm thinking the Monday/Tuesday thing overperforms and ends in a more prolonged period of snow over the whole area (versus tonight's), with the usual spots doing best of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I'm thinking the Monday/Tuesday thing overperforms and ends in a more prolonged period of snow over the whole area (versus tonight's), with the usual spots doing best of course Well 850's appear to be crashing as the arctic air charges in on the storm's heels so I guess how fast or slow the storm pulls and how much precip is left will determine if anyone sees anything. Certainly is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 my guess is we have a chance to time something fluky near our 12/5 wheelhouse, but I think we have a warm shot somewhere in the 1st half of the month...maybe around the 10th...none of this 70 degree B.S. ....a 3-4 day period of +10 departures.....then a step down with cold and warm oscillating...then the hammer drops...I'll go on record right now that we are getting a snowstorm the last 10 days of december....What do I have to lose? If we get one, I'll bump this thread, and if we don't everyone will forget about it....but all kidding aside...snowstorm 12/20-12/31....and not some Westminster only crap....3-6"+ in DC.... WAG? Next week - cold Thanksgiving week - seasonably warm, with a couple days of 60+, maybe T-day? Week of 12/1 - normal with a cold shot and a chance of snow if we can time something week of 12/8 - Warm week of 12/15 - Seasonably cool week of 12/22 - Cold and snowy I like it. What do you know about the winter of 1880-81? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I like it. What do you know about the winter of 1880-81? It snowed a lot in Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 It was a long time ago. Only if you're human. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I like it. What do you know about the winter of 1880-81? That winter was way above normal precip and well below normal temps at BWI. Snow records don't go past 1883, but snow must have been way above considering those temps and precip. Sweet! I hope that's your analog winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 It does look like a fairly significant pattern change is going to take shape over the next two weeks. The GEFS and to a lesser extent the Euro ens show the pv retreating poleward and low heights over AK (12z GEFS extends them across GL too). Basically, a +AO/NAO look but not really a flat zonal below in the conus. Looks like slightly below normal in the our neck at the end of the month. Beyond that has a lot of questions. If the low height anomalies in the arctic do in fact verify and strengthen, it could become a persistent pattern for a bit until if/when blocking does develop during December. I'm not implying torch or disaster or anything. Just that a frustrating start to Dec is possible. I like Matt's outlook. Start off the month with normal temps, then warm, and then hopefully blocking returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Only if you're human. Do you mean this winter? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Long_Winter_%28novel%29 Read this book to my daughter years ago. Amazing story of endurance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I like it. What do you know about the winter of 1880-81? wire to wire uber cold even versus the norms of the day., and snow spread out...our coldest winter from 1871-1903....We don't have snow, but NYC got 36"...hard to extrapolate based on that...but probably not a huge blockbuster...maybe 20-30"?...Dec was our coldest with respect to normal and February warmest but all 3 months well below...March was cold too...Based on re-analysis it was clearly a Nino...perhaps weak to moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I like it. What do you know about the winter of 1880-81? "blizzard– 1859, origin obscure (perhaps somehow connected with blaze (1)); it came into general use in the U.S. in the hard winter 1880-81, though it was used with a sense of "violent blow" in Amer. Eng., 1829; and blizz "violent rainstorm" is attested from 1770.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I like it. What do you know about the winter of 1880-81? below zero cold waves the end of December and early February...November arctic cold on the east coast unseen since... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I like it. What do you know about the winter of 1880-81? I know that we won't have another one like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 wire to wire uber cold even versus the norms of the day., and snow spread out...our coldest winter from 1871-1903....We don't have snow, but NYC got 36"...hard to extrapolate based on that...but probably not a huge blockbuster...maybe 20-30"?...Dec was our coldest with respect to normal and February warmest but all 3 months well below...March was cold too...Based on re-analysis it was clearly a Nino...perhaps weak to moderate WxLBDk4sFl.png Matt, Based on looking at a combo of available 3.4 data, JMA, and the SOI, I'd call 1880-1 anywhere from high end neutral positive to low end weak El Nino fwiw. Down in Atlanta, DJF was chilly (2 below normal) though not very cold overall. However, Nov. was the 3rd coldest on record (5 colder than normal). They got the late Dec. extreme cold shot with a low of 1 F on 12/30, which is only one warmer than the 1983 all time coldest Dec. low. On 12/29, ATL got a 6" snowstorm, which is certainly major for Atlanta (300% of total seasonal normal). Most notably: The Nov-Mar rainfall was the heaviest on record (nearly 200% of normal!) and DJF was 2nd heaviest (~175% of normal). Atlanta has had several very wet high end neutral positive to low end weak El Nino winters fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 What struck me was the similar November transition for America, MEI and weak solar (but not similar placement). I like its general swings through February, but adjusted to modern climate (e.g. the mid-Feb warm break). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 the JMA index had a weak el nino for the 1880-81 winter...No major thaw that year until mid February... ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 weekly SSTA numbers Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 29OCT2014 21.8 0.6 25.8 0.9 27.3 0.6 29.4 0.8 05NOV2014 21.9 0.5 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.9 12NOV2014 22.4 0.9 25.8 0.9 27.5 0.8 29.5 0.9 TAO map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Is that a good number "2" on the Daily OISST, Mitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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