SNO Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 If you buy into the theory that snow begets snow and places it has snowed will be repeated over the next few months, you have to be pleased in the SE and NE. I believe this winter could be a blockbuster for the SE and for our friends East of 95...the NW burbs, typically snow winners, could be on the high and dry side of things, or you could say cold and dry, compared to the coastal areas. If so, let me be on board to extend my congratulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 If you buy into the theory that snow begets snow and places it has snowed will be repeated over the next few months, you have to be pleased in the SE and NE. I believe this winter could be a blockbuster for the SE and for our friends East of 95...the NW burbs, typically snow winners, could be on the high and dry side of things, or you could say cold and dry, compared to the coastal areas. If so, let me be on board to extend my congratulations NOAA's early winter outlook agrees with you in terms of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 If you buy into the theory that snow begets snow and places it has snowed will be repeated over the next few months, you have to be pleased in the SE and NE. I believe this winter could be a blockbuster for the SE and for our friends East of 95...the NW burbs, typically snow winners, could be on the high and dry side of things, or you could say cold and dry, compared to the coastal areas. If so, let me be on board to extend my congratulations Any scientific reasoning behind this? I don't see how you can predict specifics like that months in advance. Looks like a troll job to me, no offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 this map is looking tastier, but it will have to continue to have a huge impact in light of the very late start Another enso baby step Starting to see some bn anomalies building n of enso and s of HI. Pretty normal in a Nino. Even though the event is still weak, the entire npac basin is looking pretty good to me. Nino in my dailies is as good as it has looked... 3 - 0.75, 3.4 - 0.9, 4 - 1.15 I don't know if this is some linear push or just a temporary spike.....there is still no indication we will get to moderate territory..also guessing with a lag response the super late start won't assist us with a good southern stream too early in the winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Any scientific reasoning behind this? I don't see how you can predict specifics like that months in advance. Looks like a troll job to me, no offense. The theory of "snow begets snow" is not a new concept. Some historical records support snowfalls for the season to align with areas that have already seen snow, hence the "snow begets snow" theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 The theory of "snow begets snow" is not a new concept. Some historical records support snowfalls for the season to align with areas that have already seen snow, hence the "snow begets snow" theory. Hmmm. Sounds like another way of saying "atmospheric memory" to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Nino in my dailies is as good as it has looked... 3 - 0.75, 3.4 - 0.9, 4 - 1.15 I don't know if this is some linear push or just a temporary spike.....there is still no indication we will get to moderate territory..also guessing with a lag response the super late start won't assist us with a good southern stream too early in the winter.... It's a tough question. One thing that can work in Dec is just having the gulf open for business with an amplified pattern. Personally, I would consider Dec with 3" @ DCA a solid victory. DC can get that a lot of different ways without some big juicy system. If we have a decent blocking pattern in Dec then we'll likely have some chances even if they are convoluted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Hmmm. Sounds like another way of saying "atmospheric memory" to me... Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 If you buy into the theory that snow begets snow and places it has snowed will be repeated over the next few months, you have to be pleased in the SE and NE. I believe this winter could be a blockbuster for the SE and for our friends East of 95...the NW burbs, typically snow winners, could be on the high and dry side of things, or you could say cold and dry, compared to the coastal areas. If so, let me be on board to extend my congratulations "If"... "I believe"... "could be" Your posts are useless. Like a lamer version of the Farmer's Almanac or a newspaper horoscope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Agreed. Just stop posting this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 "If"... "I believe"... "could be" Your posts are useless. Like a lamer version of the Farmer's Almanac or a newspaper horoscope. lol It sounds like he's from the NW 'burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 lol It sounds like he's from the NW 'burbs. He claims he's from Winchester, but I don't believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Atmospheric memory as in you'll see a storm in November then the same storm in Jan and Feb is dumb. But there are clearly season to season trends that try to "lock in"... you see it in tropics and other areas as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I found this source from a Facebook discussion and I like what they have to say. http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blog/Post/Long-Range-Weather-Forecasting-The-2014-2015-Winter-Outlook-1935 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I found this source from a Facebook discussion and I like what they have to say. http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blog/Post/Long-Range-Weather-Forecasting-The-2014-2015-Winter-Outlook-1935 lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 lolz yea, I just saw that old date at the top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Found this map. Not sure who made it, or their reasoning behind it. Looks nice, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Mike Masco's Winter Forecast http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/mike-mascos-2014-2015-winter-outlook-very-cold-snowy-times-ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 From Twitter today, HM and Adam ( formally am19psu on here ) were talking about the potential for early winter blocking. "@antmasiello: Snowy, cool November for Ohio valley, lakes, Ontario, interior Northeast, mid Atlantic? #pna #forcing #pdo #holycrapwinteriscoming" Adams response: "@AdamPHLWx: @antmasiello Sounds like a plan... pretty hard to see a way the winter doesn't at least start blocky" Hey, thanks for documentating this! As time went on, I got the impression that more RNA periods would occur but it seems like the "PDO-signal" is going to win out for November. Can't believe we are talking snow chances again! Have not heard from HM lately just curious on what his thoughts are for the upcoming winter I don't typically share thoughts when I've got nothing new or different to offer. Hard to bet against the signals right now and I can't seem to find anything (yet) to be alarmed about (for widespread failing winter outlooks). What I do see, however, is a lot of bad information out there within the winter outlooks to explain the various factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Hey, thanks for documentating this! As time went on, I got the impression that more RNA periods would occur but it seems like the "PDO-signal" is going to win out for November. Can't believe we are talking snow chances again! I don't typically share thoughts when I've got nothing new or different to offer. Hard to bet against the signals right now and I can't seem to find anything (yet) to be alarmed about (for widespread failing winter outlooks). What I do see, however, is a lot of bad information out there within the winter outlooks to explain the various factors. Hey man! Now I KNOW we're getting close seeing you in the MA thread. I don't want any specifics on your thoughts. Just need to know how much snow DC (more importantly Rockville) will get this winter. We can work out the details later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 This may have been posted before.. if so sorry! First normal outlook I saw for this area: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2853 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 According to the map, I live in the ocean. Another one bites the dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 nino spiking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Hey, thanks for documentating this! As time went on, I got the impression that more RNA periods would occur but it seems like the "PDO-signal" is going to win out for November. Can't believe we are talking snow chances again! I don't typically share thoughts when I've got nothing new or different to offer. Hard to bet against the signals right now and I can't seem to find anything (yet) to be alarmed about (for widespread failing winter outlooks). What I do see, however, is a lot of bad information out there within the winter outlooks to explain the various factors. HM! ours coming out Tuesday..the science is pretty dumbed down for the public...but all I really care about are numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 I like where the nino is heading, the 3.4 numbers are improving for us. May end up resulting in a solid late winter response because of the late development, but as Matt said above it's spiking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Looks like this year may become a unique analog for a late blooming Nino 02 and 76 have been all over CPC d8&11+ analogs for days now. Obviously 76-77 was not a good snow year but I'd take chances with a 76-77 type pattern any winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Looks like this year may become a unique analog for a late blooming Nino 02 and 76 have been all over CPC d8&11+ analogs for days now. Obviously 76-77 was not a good snow year but I'd take chances with a 76-77 type pattern any winter. 76-77 what fell stayed around...I remember there was a huge ice patch in a parking lot that never melted....day after day after school we were there taking running starts and sliding across it. That winter had benefits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 official weekly numbers keep rising too Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 22OCT2014 21.8 0.8 25.8 0.8 27.2 0.5 29.4 0.7 29OCT2014 21.8 0.6 25.8 0.9 27.3 0.6 29.4 0.8 05NOV2014 21.9 0.5 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 this SSTA kicks butt, though it may be overdone but maybe not considering those weekly numbers are an average and it's been rising steadily each day it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The people that wrote El Niño off will regret it, like the folks who predicted a repeat of 97-98 back in March. This is a classic +PDO, El Niño system in-place and has been for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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