WxUSAF Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Keep the global warming spat in the CC subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Flat-out slanderous lies. I intended for the P/T stuff to stay in the climate forum and is not relevant to this year or winter. My prediction for this winter is slightly above normal with a poor snow department along and east of I-95. I put some stock into the CFS, last year this time it showed arctic ice box conditions and was correct. We are on our way up and out tho. Just sayin, give it a couple more decades especially when you see a complete flip back into +PDO like the 80s and 90s. Doesn't matter. I'm not the first to bring this up. Every post you've made in this thread has global warming as its main theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Keep the global warming spat in the CC subforum. How about keeping the global warming in the CC forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Doesn't matter. I'm not the first to bring this up. Every post you've made in this thread has global warming as its main theme. wow lol, you brought it up. My post was commenting on the CFS. Go back and look and you will see that what I said is true, especially for DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The CFS was torching much of the USA last Fall until it was forced to cave in mid-Novie. Not sure what you're talking about. The only warm analog I can find is 1979-80, and even that year went into the ice-box in late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 1958-59 mei new and old... 1957 -.948 -.35 .156 .351 .901 .768 .924 1.122 1.179 1.097 1.133 1.2311958 1.474 1.451 1.317 1.025 .724 .893 .711 .428 .178 .208 .49 .711959 .577 .804 .502 .218 .001 .01 -.187 .069 .055 -.081 -.184 -.265 1957 -.736 -.387 .049 .41 .792 1.371 1.628 1.551 1.436 1.152 1.157 1.3121958 1.478 1.549 1.505 1.38 1.5 1.602 1.419 1.02 .604 .424 .373 .5341959 .639 .747 .86 .748 .797 .864 .549 .308 .232 .142 .048 -.125 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Harry, I'm going to guess at this. Maybe it has something to do with the SST's of the surrounding water. If we assume that the surrounding SST's are warmer these days, perhaps it takes even warmer 3.4 SST's to have the same effect today? Is this possible? I'll do a hypothetical example to illustrate. Let's say that the surrounding waters between 5 and 10 N/S had a normal temp of 25 C in 1958 but 26 C today. Now, let's say that in 1958 it took 25.5 C in Niño 3.4 to get a weak El Niño (i.e., 0.5 C warmer than the surrounding water). Well, today's 25.5 C in 3.4 would actually be COOLER than the surrounding water instead of warmer like in 1958. So, in order to make it 0.5 warmer than the surrounding water today, Niño 3.4 would need to be at 26.5 C instead of 25.5 C. So, might it be that Niño 3.4 would need to be at 26.5 C today to have the same El Niño type of effect today that 25.5 C had in 1958? If so, then would it, indeed, make sense to require 3.4 be 1 C warmer today than it was in 1958 to result in the same El Niño effects throughout the world today that it had in 1958? Keep in mind that a typical El Niño SST signature has a strip of the warmest SST anomalies within 5 degrees of the equator. Anyone? Might my way of thinking about this be true? My point has to do with SSTs and moisture. A water temp of 86 degrees in 1958 shouldn't be any different then 86 today because you are putting the same amount of moisture into the atmosphere. You follow me? The moisture relates to the S. Jet which we all know is more active during years with warmer SSTs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 My point has to do with SSTs and moisture. A water temp of 86 degrees in 1958 shouldn't be any different then 86 today because you are putting the same amount of moisture into the atmosphere. You follow me? The moisture relates to the S. Jet which we all know is more active during years with warmer SSTs.. Harry, I follow your thinking. However, I'm wondering if it just isn't specifically the warming in Nino but rather the contrast of warmer near the equator than surrounding areas that helps channel the energy and help the air rise more over/near the equator (via the contrast) and thus create the strong southern jet. I don't know, but I'm wondering. The Nino signature is a long warmer area near the equator. What if it were warm but the surrounding area even warmer? That would be more like a La Nina sig., not El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 This is a Mid-Atlantic forum, is it not? I for one appreciate outside analysis every now and then, but other such discussions shouldn't belong here. Maybe an extra sub-forum can be created for intra-regional stuff, thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 This is a Mid-Atlantic forum, is it not? I for one appreciate outside analysis every now and then, but other such discussions shouldn't belong here. Maybe an extra sub-forum can be created for intra-regional stuff, thoughts? first, the discussion is good second, ENSO discussion is relevant to all areas of the conus so it's fine imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 first, the discussion is good second, ENSO discussion is relevant to all areas of the conus so it's fine imho fair enough, carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 first, the discussion is good second, ENSO discussion is relevant to all areas of the conus so it's fine imho Since it's election day, I'm voting. I agree with you. Keep the discussion going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Since it's election day, I'm voting. I agree with you. Keep the discussion going. Can I change my vote? Euro looks close to giving us the good stuff ~Nov 12, but that's when wunderground stops its output... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 This is a Mid-Atlantic forum, is it not? I for one appreciate outside analysis every now and then, but other such discussions shouldn't belong here. Maybe an extra sub-forum can be created for intra-regional stuff, thoughts? My apologies for any offense by posting here. I'm clearly not from the Mid-Atlantic but I do enjoy discussing weather with pretty much anyone as well as learning from anyone who knows what they're talking about. However, if you'd rather me not post here please feel free to say so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Not offended at all! It just seemed to me like things were starting to veer away from the topic, but I digress. I'm just on here more often than I should be probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Not offended at all! It just seemed to me like things were starting to veer away from the topic, but I digress. I'm just on here more often than I should be probably. Awesome. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Have not heard from HM lately just curious on what his thoughts are for the upcoming winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Have not heard from HM lately just curious on what his thoughts are for the upcoming winter He'll be here when it matters. When you see his screen name show up as the last post in the thread....put on your dancing shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 He'll be here when it matters. When you see his screen name show up as the last post in the thread....put on your dancing shoes. Or get the bottle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 He'll be here when it matters. When you see his screen name show up as the last post in the thread....put on your dancing shoes. I'm praying for some torque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I'm praying for some torque Hadley and Kelvin are predicting several thousand ft lbs. Our mountains may be lying sideways shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Hadley and Kelvin are predicting several thousand ft lbs. Our mountains may be lying sideways shortly That would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Harry, I follow your thinking. However, I'm wondering if it just isn't specifically the warming in Nino but rather the contrast of warmer near the equator than surrounding areas that helps channel the energy and help the air rise more over/near the equator (via the contrast) and thus create the strong southern jet. I don't know, but I'm wondering. The Nino signature is a long warmer area near the equator. What if it were warm but the surrounding area even warmer? That would be more like a La Nina sig., not El Nino. Sorry for the delayed response.. Interesting thoughts... It could explain the La'Nino etc type patterns ( as some referred to them as ) in recent years? The method to determining Nino/Nina i will always have doubts about and or atleast till we have a few more ( nino's/nina's ) under the belt with the newer system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 this map is looking tastier, but it will have to continue to have a huge impact in light of the very late start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Another enso baby step Starting to see some bn anomalies building n of enso and s of HI. Pretty normal in a Nino. Even though the event is still weak, the entire npac basin is looking pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 latest MEI was down to +0.360 from 0.500...Oni went up from 0.0 to 0.2...I expect the mei to rise for next months reading...same with the oni index... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 this map is looking tastier, but it will have to continue to have a huge impact in light of the very late start If a late nino does eventually develop, would winter conditions extend later into spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Another enso baby step Starting to see some bn anomalies building n of enso and s of HI. Pretty normal in a Nino. Even though the event is still weak, the entire npac basin is looking pretty good to me. Amazing how each major ocean basin all have positive anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 There's also a good bit of negative on that map as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Amazing how each major ocean basin all have positive anomalies. It's anomalous but not unprecedented. 03 had a lot of warmth all over. I would say this year beats it easily at the same point in time. The NPAC has changed quite a bit from just the beginning of Oct. It's been constantly cooling and will prob continue in most areas for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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