Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[BTRWx]

That's why I included the 'based solely on Niño' phrase. I'm pretty sure that is the year I have seen used the most as an analog to date. I don't know of a database like that but it would be awesome.

There is this for short-range guidance, but one for seasonal and monthly values would be nice. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php

[wildweatherman179]

I was just doing some reading on the Pacific in the fall and winter of 1976-77 and the description of the ocean temps with the deep Aleutian low sounds incredibly similar to what's going on right now. I don't know if this link will work but it's worth a shot.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&ei=F9dXVKPBN8j3yQTYrYLgDg&url=http://horizon.ucsd.edu/miller/download/climateshift/climate_shift.pdf&ved=0CC8QFjAD&usg=AFQjCNGZuPSFLNaY9k1d94dr37TcE0wW9w&sig2=X-lBTvttYkMTOto0RoiqYQ

[wildweatherman179]

Thanks for the link BTRWx.

[BTRWx]

I was just doing some reading on the Pacific in the fall and winter of 1976-77 and the description of the ocean temps with the deep Aleutian low sounds incredibly similar to what's going on right now. I don't know if this link will work but it's worth a shot.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&ei=F9dXVKPBN8j3yQTYrYLgDg&url=http://horizon.ucsd.edu/miller/download/climateshift/climate_shift.pdf&ved=0CC8QFjAD&usg=AFQjCNGZuPSFLNaY9k1d94dr37TcE0wW9w&sig2=X-lBTvttYkMTOto0RoiqYQ

Thanks, link works; Diving into it right away

[Bob Chill]

Have there been any late season Nino analog years? For anyone interested, NASA has a nice historical database for sst and surface temperature charts. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

 

 

There really isn't a good analog imo whether we go official or end warm/neutral. The latest declared since 1950 is 58-59 with an OND official start but the Pac was basically in a nino state for a year and a half prior. 

 

IMO- from where we stand right now it looks like any weak or low end mod nino with blocking on the means and +PDO can be used to piece things together. 

 

The long range pattern being advertised will likely further enhance the +pdo look at we move through Nov. 

 

I think it's fair to say that the odds of some areas in the east having a snowy winter are increasing. But expecting everyone to gets more risky. Some areas will likely end up being on the outside looking in. 

[Deck Pic]

I'm not from the mid atlantic but I read the posts here a lot. The best fit year as an analog I found based solely on Niño was 1976-77. It started in the ASO tri-monthly. 1977-78 was pretty close to it as well.

 

1976 had a big warming in October that we haven't seen.  I think nino is far from a lock,...our ASO trimonthly will probably be a 0.1 or 0.2...the baseline for ERSST dataset is different than OISST.

 

as an absolute number we are similarly warm to 2004 right now (around 27.3 C in 3.4)  though that nino had a head start

[yoda]

There really isn't a good analog imo whether we go official or end warm/neutral. The latest declared since 1950 is 58-59 with an OND official start but the Pac was basically in a nino state for a year and a half prior. 

 

IMO- from where we stand right now it looks like any weak or low end mod nino with blocking on the means and +PDO can be used to piece things together. 

 

The long range pattern being advertised will likely further enhance the +pdo look at we move through Nov. 

 

I think it's fair to say that the odds of some areas in the east having a snowy winter are increasing. But expecting everyone to gets more risky. Some areas will likely end up being on the outside looking in. 

 

I think a lot of it may have to do with how much confluence we have around.  If I remember correctly, didn't confluence crush that early Feb storm that while we here were dancing in the snow, places like NYC were on the outside looking in?

[wildweatherman179]

1976 had a big warming in October that we haven't seen. I think nino is far from a lock,...our ASO trimonthly will probably be a 0.1 or 0.2...the baseline for ERSST dataset is different than OISST.

as an absolute number we are similarly warm to 2004 right now (around 27.3 C in 3.4) though that nino had a head start

Yeah. I was using the year that came up as the most common overall analog I have seen. 58-59 is another I have seen pretty commonly lately as Bob mentioned but I honestly haven't researched it as well as many of the others.

Edit/add: The pdo was a poor fit for 2004 also.

[Bob Chill]

I think a lot of it may have to do with how much confluence we have around.  If I remember correctly, didn't confluence crush that early Feb storm that while we here were dancing in the snow, places like NYC were on the outside looking in?

 

 

Storm track in general will hold the keys. IMO- up north stands a pretty good chance this year from how things seem to be breaking. They can score with a lot of northern stream scenarios where we can't. 

 

To solidly beat climo around here we will likely depend on getting at least one or 2 big hits in the mix. I'll wait until the snow falls before saying that's likely. lol 

[yoda]

Storm track in general will hold the keys. IMO- up north stands a pretty good chance this year from how things seem to be breaking. They can score with a lot of northern stream scenarios where we can't. 

 

To solidly beat climo around here we will likely depend on getting at least one or 2 big hits in the mix. I'll wait until the snow falls before saying that's likely. lol 

 

Def agree.  Perhaps we can sneak one of those rare Miller B's where the h5 energy passes south of us through like RIC and give us a glancing blow of some snow.  I am hopeful we don't have to rely on Miller A's for our big storms... overrunning systems would be nice to see once again for our area

[WinterWxLuvr]

Def agree.  Perhaps we can sneak one of those rare Miller B's where the h5 energy passes south of us through like RIC and give us a glancing blow of some snow.  I am hopeful we don't have to rely on Miller A's for our big storms... overrunning systems would be nice to see once again for our area

Yes, and I'm a pretty big fan of the Tennessee Valley lows that send us a big mixed bag of precip.  Of course, it's a safe bet that all in this forum don't like those quite as much.

[mitchnick]

Storm track in general will hold the keys. IMO- up north stands a pretty good chance this year from how things seem to be breaking. They can score with a lot of northern stream scenarios where we can't. 

 

To solidly beat climo around here we will likely depend on getting at least one or 2 big hits in the mix. I'll wait until the snow falls before saying that's likely. lol 

been some crazy northern stream vorts the last couple of weeks, so maybe this year will be different

[Bob Chill]

Def agree.  Perhaps we can sneak one of those rare Miller B's where the h5 energy passes south of us through like RIC and give us a glancing blow of some snow.  I am hopeful we don't have to rely on Miller A's for our big storms... overrunning systems would be nice to see once again for our area

 

I think we'll have to rely on miller A's if we want a big year. I can't imagine getting as many events as last year. 

 

Agree about overrunning. Could be a good year for that if we get some -nao going. They aren't particularly complicated and can easily drop a uniform 2-4/3-6.

[BTRWx]

Yeah. I was using the year that came up as the most common overall analog I have seen. 58-59 is another I have seen pretty commonly lately as Bob mentioned but I honestly haven't researched it as well as many of the others.

Edit/add: The pdo was a poor fit for 2004 also.

 

Yeah. I was using the year that came up as the most common overall analog I have seen. 58-59 is another I have seen pretty commonly lately as Bob mentioned but I honestly haven't researched it as well as many of the others.

Edit/add: The pdo was a poor fit for 2004 also.

On that thought, I tried seeing how far I could go back to find an analog and the one that stood out to me was similar to 1958 in that D.C. had very little snow that season. (just trying to be objective) http://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/NMAPS/tmp_ERSST_1200km_Anom10_1930_1930_1900_1980/nmaps.gif

[Bob Chill]

been some crazy northern stream vorts the last couple of weeks, so maybe this year will be different

 

Sure is a nice split flow look on the ensembles. Would like to see that in DJF for sure. #phasejobs

[wildweatherman179]

On that thought, I tried seeing how far I could go back to find an analog and the one that stood out to me was similar to 1958 in that D.C. had very little snow that season. (just trying to be objective) http://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/NMAPS/tmp_ERSST_1200km_Anom10_1930_1930_1900_1980/nmaps.gif

In the map you linked, it appears that the PDO was negative that year as well. Doesn't quite fit. (1930?)

[mitchnick]

Sure is a nice split flow look on the ensembles. Would like to see that in DJF for sure. #phasejobs

on the one hand, I hate to see the pattern flip so early, but on the other, the great winters do flip by mid-Novie and hang tough through mid-Feb or March

he!!, let it flip now....I'm willing to roll the dice considering how good everything looks attm

 

otoh, the silence from HM is troubling; I'll chalk it up to having to hold his cards close to his vest due to proprietary reasons of his current employer

[BTRWx]

In the map you linked, it appears that the PDO was negative that year as well. Doesn't quite fit. (1930?)

yea, my goal was basically to find as close a fit to global sst anomalies as possible with this one, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif.

 

EDIT: I forgot to mention that I initially used September values to come up with 1930 (apparently without the pdo signal). http://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/NMAPS/tmp_ERSST_1200km_Anom09_1930_1930_1900_1930/nmaps.gif

 

and Sep 2014: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/NMAPS/tmp_ERSST_1200km_Anom09_2014_2014_1980_2014/nmaps.gif

 

Try the links again after changing the base periods.

[Deck Pic]

On that thought, I tried seeing how far I could go back to find an analog and the one that stood out to me was similar to 1958 in that D.C. had very little snow that season. (just trying to be objective) http://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/NMAPS/tmp_ERSST_1200km_Anom10_1930_1930_1900_1980/nmaps.gif

 

I wouldn't worry too much about that scenario though it should act as some caution.  That pattern absolutely went to **** in February, and we had a -PNA in January despite all the blocking...we wasted our best pattern during our worst period of climo....I don't really like that it was a waning nino (out of 57-58) either....though that is mostly subjective..It is an outlier though...we shouldn't be too worried about a 5" winter...I think the 10-12" range is a good baseline for the minimum we can expect in immediate DC metro..we could get less but it would be an outlier

[uncle W]

on the one hand, I hate to see the pattern flip so early, but on the other, the great winters do flip by mid-Novie and hang tough through mid-Feb or March

he!!, let it flip now....I'm willing to roll the dice considering how good everything looks attm

 

otoh, the silence from HM is troubling; I'll chalk it up to having to hold his cards close to his vest due to proprietary reasons of his current employer

cold starts to winter are great if it snows for Christmas...now that the el nino is finally picking up steam we could see a snowy December like 2002 and 2009...They weren't extremely cold but cold enough when it counted...

[wildweatherman179]

I wouldn't worry too much about that scenario though it should act as some caution. That pattern absolutely went to **** in February, and we had a -PNA in January despite all the blocking...we wasted our best pattern during our worst period of climo....I don't really like that it was a waning nino (out of 57-58) either....though that is mostly subjective..It is an outlier though...we shouldn't be too worried about a 5" winter...I think the 10-12" range is a good baseline for the minimum we can expect in immediate DC metro..we could get less but it would be an outlier

Yeah. If I'm not mistaken, I think much of the southeast and mid atlantic got screwed that winter.

[Bob Chill]

yea, my goal was basically to find as close a fit to global sst anomalies as possible with this one, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif.

 

I forgot to mention that I initially used September values to come up with 1930 (apparently without the pdo signal). http://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/NMAPS/tmp_ERSST_1200km_Anom09_1930_1930_1900_1980/nmaps.gif

 

The closest modern match is 03. 

[uncle W]

On that thought, I tried seeing how far I could go back to find an analog and the one that stood out to me was similar to 1958 in that D.C. had very little snow that season. (just trying to be objective) http://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/NMAPS/tmp_ERSST_1200km_Anom10_1930_1930_1900_1980/nmaps.gif

1958-59 had a very cold December and it lingered until late March...it's one of the coldest winters in 70 years with the least amount of snowfall...The problem with that winter was the storm track being to our west...I remember two storms that started as snow but turned to heavy rain and moderating temperatures...There was probably some near misses like every year and it was drier than average also...being a second year nino gives it less weight in my opinion...

[BTRWx]

Yeah. If I'm not mistaken, I think much of the southeast and mid atlantic got screwed that winter.

I had to update the original links having base periods both with ~30 years of climatology. Got to love it when you want to reproduce identical output.

[Deck Pic]

1958-59 had a very cold December and it lingered until late March...it's one of the coldest winters in 70 years with the least amount of snowfall...The problem with that winter was the storm track being to our west...I remember two storms that started as snow but turned to heavy rain and moderating temperatures...There was probably some near misses like every year and it was drier than average also...being a second year nino gives it less weight in my opinion...

 

Other than Dec, it wasn't cold here at all...

[Deck Pic]

Obviously 58-59 had a number of things going for it and it didnt work out....I think with all the signs in our favor, it would be unlikely, though not impossible, to get this kind of pattern in February given all the ingredients on the table...I don't know why the pattern went to crap, but in a +PDO/Nino/-QBO/Excellent SAI/SCE/OPI/October pattern, it wouldn't make any sense to forecast a February like this..we were just slightly above normal, but as you can see the pattern is egregiously hostile to snow in the mid atlantic..you punt a peak climo period at our latitude and you usually suck at snow...

 

 

[mitchnick]

Obviously 58-59 had a number of things going for it and it didnt work out....I think with all the signs in our favor, it would be unlikely, though not impossible, to get this kind of pattern in February given all the ingredients on the table...I don't know why the pattern went to crap, but in a +PDO/Nino/-QBO/Excellent SAI/SCE/OPI/October pattern, it wouldn't make any sense to forecast a February like this..we were just slightly above normal, but as you can see the pattern is egregiously hostile to snow in the mid atlantic..you punt a peak climo period at our latitude and you usually suck at snow...

 

 

1959feb.png

sunspot activity peaked that winter it seems from this graph

http://www.sidc.be/silso/yearlyssnplot

[Deck Pic]

sunspot activity peaked that winter it seems from this graph

http://www.sidc.be/silso/yearlyssnplot

 

Thanks for reminding me...it was a monster solar max...

[aldie 22]

hmmmm

I've paid attention to you over these last 10 years. It's one thing to predict cold but to predict record breaking cold is not wise...there's a reason it's a record...and snow...well...12-15 just sounded like a solid number for DC and if predicted 10 times would probably end up too high more often than not so those numbers are basically a solid winter.

All in fun from me anyway

[Deck Pic]

I've paid attention to you over these last 10 years. It's one thing to predict cold but to predict record breaking cold is not wise...there's a reason it's a record...and snow...well...12-15 just sounded like a solid number for DC and if predicted 10 times would probably end up too high more often than not so those numbers are basically a solid winter.

All in fun from me anyway

 

interesting...