MN Transplant Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Still some decent chances for a weak El Nino, which wouldn't be so bad for us. At worst, I have a feeling we won't do worse than last year in terms of snowfall. So, at worst we are looking at a top-tier snowfall season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 So, at worst we are looking at a top-tier snowfall season? Much doubt, you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 So, at worst we are looking at a top-tier snowfall season? Has 200% of climo back to back happened in the last 100 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Has 200% of climo back to back happened in the last 100 years? Something I have been wondering too. I would think it has to be sometime in the 1960's, if even then and probably localized and not region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Has 200% of climo back to back happened in the last 100 years? Depends on what climo. DCA went back-to-back-to-back 30"+ seasons in the 1930s, but given the timeframe and the measurement location, that wouldn't have been 200% of normal. IAD certainly hasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 I suppose if any 2 year shot has a chance then this would be a good one. Last year was a fluke. If we can pull off even a weak mod nino then odds go up quite a bit. Snowy flukes are rare. Snowy nino's are not. Even hitting 100% of climo region wide would be a solid 2 year stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Cold fronts+Super typhoon in July=MASSIVE amounts of hope for this winter. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Bob, as I'm sure you and most know, the CFS2 looks horrid in its temp, precip, and u/l setup for the winter, but the ENSO maps don't look bad to me as it has the max warmth migrating westward to not far east of the dateline by the D-F period....late winter? Last year at this time had nothing going for it in a general sense analog-wise and the CFS2 was plastered with average temps, so I'm with you wrt to just waiting. There are too many other factors, in addition to ENSO, that could go either way for us. OTOH, even with a winter that averages AN temp-wise, NINOs do increase our precip chances so an AN temp winter may not be a snow killer. I remain optimistic because of the NINO and leave it at that I suppose. I'd love to hear HM's thoughts though. <hint, hint> CFS v2 doesn't seem to be a good tool IMO. (Being nice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Much doubt, you have. Huh? To follow MN Transplant's question, you do realize that "At worst, I have a feeling we won't do worse than last year in terms of snowfall" would be a radical statement for any city in any climo, right? Last season at DCA beat 86/87, after all, and IAD managed to beat 02/03. What extraordinary expectations would dictate that we, at worst, would match a top-tier season again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Huh? To follow MN Transplant's question, you do realize that "At worst, I have a feeling we won't do worse than last year in terms of snowfall" would be a radical statement for any city in any climo, right? Last season at DCA beat 86/87, after all, and IAD managed to beat 02/03. What extraordinary expectations would dictate that we, at worst, would match a top-tier season again? Who says we can't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Who says we can't? In the DC area, a place where the only certainty in weather is heat, maybe you should scale back your enthusiasm a tad. Somewhere between average snowfall and last winter's fluky bonus snow might be a reasonable expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Who says we can't? Nobody says we can't. "At worst" would be virtually snowless though. Expecting a historic event is a bit over the top. Hoping for one yes. Expecting one highly favors a bust. I personally would be thrilled with simple climo snow totals. Back to back has been elusive as heck. Let's knock that down in December and then start padding....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Nobody says we can't. "At worst" would be virtually snowless though. Expecting a historic event is a bit over the top. Hoping for one yes. Expecting one highly favors a bust. I personally would be thrilled with simple climo snow totals. Back to back has been elusive as heck. Let's knock that down in December and then start padding....lol I'm bullish because of the lingering possibility of a weak El Nino, and the long range forecasts aren't that bad, although I know we are a long ways out. I'll reserve my pessimism for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 The MJO looks to move into a favorable pattern to spur another subsurface kelvin wave that could reinforce the warm pool moving into the fall. The CFS, JMA, and Euro both show a similar rebound come later in the year. I would not give up hopes on a moderate Nino just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 The MJO looks to move into a favorable pattern to spur another subsurface kelvin wave that could reinforce the warm pool moving into the fall. The CFS, JMA, and Euro both show a similar rebound come later in the year. I would not give up hopes on a moderate Nino just yet.Yea, it would be a mistake to make any definitive calls still. Maybe calling off a super nino can be done without huge risk but definitely not a mod one. ENSO is awful tricky. It was pretty stark last year when we were all getting gung ho about a warm event but then...poof. The pieces are in place still. How high she goes is a watch and wait. Anything between 1-1.3 trimonthly is fine in my book. Even with nino's other things can screw with snow lovers. Getting too focused on one piece of the puzzle at long leads can throw curve balls. ATTM there is no reason to be pessimistic about winter. That's all we can really ask for. Well, unless you follow the CFSv2 monthlies...but I'm not Mitch so I could care less what they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Yea, it would be a mistake to make any definitive calls still. Maybe calling off a super nino can be done without huge risk but definitely not a mod one. ENSO is awful tricky. It was pretty stark last year when we were all getting gung ho about a warm event but then...poof. The pieces are in place still. How high she goes is a watch and wait. Anything between 1-1.3 trimonthly is fine in my book. Even with nino's other things can screw with snow lovers. Getting too focused on one piece of the puzzle at long leads can throw curve balls. ATTM there is no reason to be pessimistic about winter. That's all we can really ask for. Well, unless you follow the CFSv2 monthlies...but I'm not Mitch so I could care less what they say. That last paragraph is the most correctly stated thing I've read on here in awhile. There are far too many variables left to change. The latter half of this month through the 1st week of August will be important worldwide in shaping our fall patterns and early winter patterns. As things stand at this time I am hugely optimistic about winter across the US east of the Rockies and the eastern parts of the desert southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 CFS.v2 ens mean says an El Nino develops over the next couple months and lasts through winter, as does the majority of dyn/stat models. Latest NCEP update puts chances at 80% by winter. Details like the specific region and strength, who knows. Still a promising outlook. Yeah it evaporated last year and we still cashed in despite la nada and lack of a block. As others have said, lots of variables. Does seem a weak nino is at least in the cards and maybe we get the NAO more in our favor this winter. I don't expect the persistent cold of last winter, but it would be nice to see a couple of classic Miller A storms nail the east coast. Haven't seen that in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 CFS.v2 ens mean says an El Nino develops over the next couple months and lasts through winter, as does the majority of dyn/stat models. Latest NCEP update puts chances at 80% by winter. Details like the specific region and strength, who knows. Still a promising outlook. Yeah it evaporated last year and we still cashed in despite la nada and lack of a block. As others have said, lots of variables. Does seem a weak nino is at least in the cards and maybe we get the NAO more in our favor this winter. I don't expect the persistent cold of last winter, but it would be nice to see a couple of classic Miller A storms nail the east coast. Haven't seen that in awhile. An active southern jet is what a potential Weak/Mod Nino brings. That is what we've been missing the past few winters...particularly in prime sun angle season . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 An active southern jet is what a potential Weak/Mod Nino brings. That is what we've been missing the past few winters...particularly in prime sun angle season . Last winter had a pretty good stj and split flow at times. It wasn't really a conventional setup. Seemed like the crazy amplification and depth of the troughs kept repeating a vort at the base in tx combining with stj/gulf moisture and ns vorts trying to team up. The gradient was sick at times but the bullseye kept moving up and down the east coast. It was wild to watch. We we're too far south early on more often than not so Philly N got sprayed. Then it was too far south and al/ga/sc/nc got in on the action. And then the stars aligned... Best tracking winter since I joined the boards. From a tracking perspective it was better than 09-10 imo. The lulls were short and the crap patterns were always quick to break down. True door to door winter. The bad side was virtually no blocking other than timed bootleg ones and even then there were too many flaws for a classic ku. Progressive pattern kept big real estate storms mostly off the table but the quick hitting small stuff did plenty of damage. I was actually kinda burnt out by mid march. Takes a lot for me to burn out...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Yeah like you guys said it was a great winter with almost constant tracking. The only nit was the lack of blocking and so many events that were just 2-5 degrees off from being even bigger. I actually like a winter where we get some warm breaks but get several blocking episodes with KU possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 JB posted the new CFSv2, and it's showing below average temps for almost the entire country for Dec/Jan/Feb. He's been saying he expected the CFSv2 to "catch up" with the overall below normal pattern. I personally like his long-range forecasts, but they generally call for snow and cold, so I'm a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Great information - http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/07/upcoming-winter-shaping-up-similar-to.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/national/FXUS05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/national/FXUS05 That is an excellent read. I wish there was a central library of links and papers that any user on the forum could access and have a ADMIN or something like a board librarian to manage it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 That is an excellent read. I wish there was a central library of links and papers that any user on the forum could access and have a ADMIN or something like a board librarian to manage it all. That would be neat. I sometimes have trouble finding this sort of stuff, but I actually stumbled upon this on the AccuWeather forum (I'm still an Americanwx weenie), and found it very informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 That would be neat. I sometimes have trouble finding this sort of stuff, but I actually stumbled upon this on the AccuWeather forum (I'm still an Americanwx weenie), and found it very informative. I think somewhere in the NOAA or CPC website you can sign up to have them e-mailed to you. Can't really remember how now. Been years since I signed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 JAMSTEC updated yesterday http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en check out surface temps on the "Parameter" menu on that link for the DEC-FEB period......sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 JAMSTEC updated yesterday http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en check out surface temps on the "Parameter" menu on that link for the DEC-FEB period......sweet! Modoki niño FTW.MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Those temperatures look great for the winter. Although if you compare it with 2009, the waters near Alaska are a little cooler that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 I can't believe I'm posting in a winter thread, but... Those temperatures look great for the winter. Although if you compare it with 2009, the waters near Alaska are a little cooler that year. We didn't have a particularly cold winter that year though. If I'm not mistaken, wouldn't warmer waters in the Gulf of Alaska promote a ridge in that area, which would result in better chances for shots of colder air into the upper Midwest and Northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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