WEATHER53 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Don't know if anyone cares... just my opinion, among many others. Here's my DJF 2014-15 temperature forecast (strictly analog-based): Notes: 1) Cross-posting to the NE and NYC forums... apologies for cluttering if you follow all of them 2) I have a model which detrends old data, which is why I can use old analogs, but... 3) ...for that reason, for map generation, I use the anomaly to the 1895-2000 period 4) ...but you should consider the anomaly as being to the current climo period (1981-2010) 5) If you want to know my analog years, you can see them in small print at the top of the map 6) If you want to know why some years appear more than once, it's my way of up-weighting the better analogs 7) I don't expect you to agree 100% on my analogs (through my own analyses I've come up with some parameters I use that I'm pretty sure no one else does. I also don't use some parameters that most folks do. And even those parameters common amongst all forecasters - I may be giving them different weighting). So, don't flip out if you don't agree with my analogs - just accept it as a difference of opinion. 8) Precip is, surprisingly, a little below normal on the East Coast in these analog seasons. But it's marginal. I didn't look at snow, but I imagine in areas where precip type is typically an issue, the solid cold anomaly will override the weak dry anomaly for an above normal snowfall winter. Colder/interior locales, where precip type is usually snow, may run a bit below normal (but probably not much, as the cold anomalies may help them on the edge of the season - when they DO have ptype issues; and, if it's colder than normal during the events, ratios could be aided). 9) Like most folks appear to agree on... my analogs reflect something similar... a back-weighted winter. Dec is cold, but nothing special. Jan/Feb drive the DJF anomalies. I agree and have been on the cold-very cold for several months. Got Larry C's newletter today and he is extremely cold for both Jan and Feb, -3 to -5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I always love the idea that "the teleconnections lined up for cold but the issue was the cold air just didn't materialize." What a load of BS doublespeak. Yes you are right and these hedges after the fact has ALWAYS been a problem here. We have many classics like "upper air just did not cooperate....right for wrong reason...." and the newly emerging"yes I said it would be bitter cold but my confidence factor was only a 4". Pretty much you either get it right or you do not. State it, stand by it and do a forthright post event assesment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Don't know if anyone cares... just my opinion, among many others. Here's my DJF 2014-15 temperature forecast (strictly analog-based): Notes: 1) Cross-posting to the NE and NYC forums... apologies for cluttering if you follow all of them 2) I have a model which detrends old data, which is why I can use old analogs, but... 3) ...for that reason, for map generation, I use the anomaly to the 1895-2000 period 4) ...but you should consider the anomaly as being to the current climo period (1981-2010) 5) If you want to know my analog years, you can see them in small print at the top of the map 6) If you want to know why some years appear more than once, it's my way of up-weighting the better analogs 7) I don't expect you to agree 100% on my analogs (through my own analyses I've come up with some parameters I use that I'm pretty sure no one else does. I also don't use some parameters that most folks do. And even those parameters common amongst all forecasters - I may be giving them different weighting). So, don't flip out if you don't agree with my analogs - just accept it as a difference of opinion. 8) Precip is, surprisingly, a little below normal on the East Coast in these analog seasons. But it's marginal. I didn't look at snow, but I imagine in areas where precip type is typically an issue, the solid cold anomaly will override the weak dry anomaly for an above normal snowfall winter. Colder/interior locales, where precip type is usually snow, may run a bit below normal (but probably not much, as the cold anomalies may help them on the edge of the season - when they DO have ptype issues; and, if it's colder than normal during the events, ratios could be aided). 9) Like most folks appear to agree on... my analogs reflect something similar... a back-weighted winter. Dec is cold, but nothing special. Jan/Feb drive the DJF anomalies. I like the forecast as well. Only thing I disagree with are where the anomalies are centered on the map. I'm going with a more central based cold anomaly and more of an immediate west coast warm anomaly versus the bulk of the entire west being warm. I think the east coast comes in at near normal this year. Just my thoughts. Great forecast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I like the forecast as well. Only thing I disagree with are where the anomalies are centered on the map. I'm going with a more central based cold anomaly and more of an immediate west coast warm anomaly versus the bulk of the entire west being warm. I think the east coast comes in at near normal this year. Just my thoughts. Great forecast though. post/location... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 From my files, JB said this on 1/22/02: "Few people out there realize that the depth of the trof over the eastern United States in the means Dec 20 through Jan 15. All four major teleconnection indices lined up perfectly for extreme cold, but the fact there was no cold air available thwarted it, and when the cross polar flow did come, because it was so warm in Canada it enhanced the baroclinicity and deepened the vortex." and "The Arctic Oscillation and the PNA both responded AFTER the NAO went negative last time and the models are showing the same trend this time. A crucial question is this: Will a similar (it cant be the same) response show up aloft, which in the day 10-20 period stick a big trof near 90 west as that is the February result of such things?" Something doesn't jibe about that map that was posted that wasn't cold in the NE US. Could Warrior have made an innocent error? As the above two quotes suggest and as I distinclty remember, JB was pretty nonstop calling for cold, sometimes very strong, to dominate the E US in 2001-2. You need a web site to act as an archive of all the data/notes you have stored. I imagine it would make for some awesome reading material. Hard to imagine many people have notes of JB all the way back to the early 2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 From my files, JB said this on 1/22/02: "Few people out there realize that the depth of the trof over the eastern United States in the means Dec 20 through Jan 15. All four major teleconnection indices lined up perfectly for extreme cold, but the fact there was no cold air available thwarted it, and when the cross polar flow did come, because it was so warm in Canada it enhanced the baroclinicity and deepened the vortex." and "The Arctic Oscillation and the PNA both responded AFTER the NAO went negative last time and the models are showing the same trend this time. A crucial question is this: Will a similar (it cant be the same) response show up aloft, which in the day 10-20 period stick a big trof near 90 west as that is the February result of such things?" Something doesn't jibe about that map that was posted that wasn't cold in the NE US. Could Warrior have made an innocent error? As the above two quotes suggest and as I distinclty remember, JB was pretty nonstop calling for cold, sometimes very strong, to dominate the E US in 2001-2. I remember the Vodka cold that never came...If you was a pilot in 2001-02 it worked out fine...JB did have a good year in 2000-01 but busted on the March storm...He was using 1962 as an analog which I said at the time wasn't a good comparison...I bailed in late November 2001 when I was wearing shorts and a tee shirt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I remember the Vodka cold that never came...If you was a pilot in 2001-02 it worked out fine...JB did have a good year in 2000-01 but busted on the March storm...He was using 1962 as an analog which I said at the time wasn't a good comparison...I bailed in late November 2001 when I was wearing shorts and a tee shirt... Unc, JB may have done well earlier in the winter since it was quite cold, but his Feb. of 2001 was a train wreck because he kept referring to the "Ghost of Feb. 1899" that never came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Unc, JB may have done well earlier in the winter since it was quite cold, but his Feb. of 2001 was a train wreck because he kept referring to the "Ghost of Feb. 1899" that never came. that was 2001-02 winter...He got the upper air correctly but not sea level... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 that was 2001-02 winter...He got the upper air correctly but not sea level... Unc, I agree that 2001-2 was when he got the upper air correct but not the surface. However, in addition he also predicted the "Ghost of 1899" in advance of Feb. of 2001. I have stuff from then and I also remember it. From my files regarding grading his 00-01 forecast: "winter 00-01: excellent (A) per JB himself as I hadn't started reading him until well into that winter; however, I did start reading him around late JAN and he incorrectly kept emphasizing a major cold blast in FEB 01 with references to the ghost of 1899 over and over; FEB 01 verified to be very warm; however, I'm assuming he did well for that DEC-FEB period since he talks about it often and people don't refute it; so I'm going to assume he called for a cool winter overall since it verified to be cool overall" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Unc, I agree that 2001-2 was when he got the upper air correct but not the surface. However, in addition he also predicted the "Ghost of 1899" in advance of Feb. of 2001. I have stuff from then and I also remember it. From my files regarding grading his 00-01 forecast: "winter 00-01: excellent (A) per JB himself as I hadn't started reading him until well into that winter; however, I did start reading him around late JAN and he incorrectly kept emphasizing a major cold blast in FEB 01 with references to the ghost of 1899 over and over; FEB 01 verified to be very warm; however, I'm assuming he did well for that DEC-FEB period since he talks about it often and people don't refute it; so I'm going to assume he called for a cool winter overall since it verified to be cool overall" I started reading him about the same time but I don't remember the specifics of his forecast for that season. If his forecast was for cool overall he lucked out because the Dec-Feb period was heavily anchored by the extremely cold December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I remember the Vodka cold that never came...If you was a pilot in 2001-02 it worked out fine...JB did have a good year in 2000-01 but busted on the March storm...He was using 1962 as an analog which I said at the time wasn't a good comparison...I bailed in late November 2001 when I was wearing shorts and a tee shirt... I too remember the vodka cold never came....but that didn't stop the vodka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 that was 2001-02 winter...He got the upper air correctly but not sea level... To be a weather home run hitter(going for the Big event almost always) you kinda gotta go like 1 for 3 and not 1 for 5/6/7+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It's been a steady march towards a cooler Nov with the models the last 3-4 days. The first half of the month could end up BN. The warm up next week has trended brief and another cool shot is shaping up next weekend. Beyond that has no warm signal. Looks like some agreement starting to shape up with ridging up the west coast and through AK for the second week of the month. Lowest heights centered in the middle of the country but no obvious warmth here with cool anoms close by the whole time. Yesterday's weeklies look fine with possible split flow and southern storm track to close the month. No big signals on temps one way or the other late in the month. Coolest relative to normal temps are across the deep south and se week 3 then across socal-sw-tx during week 4. All in all, Nov is shaping up to not throw any caution leading into Dec. And it looks like it should feel like November. Let's hope for blocking to start to set up late in Nov and kick off Dec with something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It's been a steady march towards a cooler Nov with the models the last 3-4 days. The first half of the month could end up BN. The warm up next week has trended brief and another cool shot is shaping up next weekend. Beyond that has no warm signal. Looks like some agreement starting to shape up with ridging up the west coast and through AK for the second week of the month. Lowest heights centered in the middle of the country but no obvious warmth here with cool anoms close by the whole time. Yesterday's weeklies look fine with possible split flow and southern storm track to close the month. No big signals on temps one way or the other late in the month. Coolest relative to normal temps are across the deep south and se week 3 then across socal-sw-tx during week 4. All in all, Nov is shaping up to not throw any caution leading into Dec. And it looks like it should feel like November. Let's hope for blocking to start to set up late in Nov and kick off Dec with something to track. yep, I posted this Canadian link the other day and it was the first mr model to nicely depict what all of them seem to be saying, that the NOV warm up would be brief http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millwx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Looks like ESRL clears their cache occasionally (I noticed my images on here are gone). Plus, I re-did my analogs in a slightly different way. If doesn't alter my forecast much - and shouldn't, because the signals are essentially the same in the additional analog years. But my precipitation forecast comes closer to normal along the East Coast (not surprisingly - as I think a dry forecast, though plausible, is a little suspect). So, re-posting my forecast (you can see my other comments/caveats up-thread)... Here's DJFM 2014-15 forecast temps: ...and precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 yep, I posted this Canadian link the other day and it was the first mr model to nicely depict what all of them seem to be saying, that the NOV warm up would be brief http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html How's your CFSv2 looking Mitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Looks like ESRL clears their cache occasionally (I noticed my images on here are gone). Plus, I re-did my analogs in a slightly different way. If doesn't alter my forecast much - and shouldn't, because the signals are essentially the same in the additional analog years. But my precipitation forecast comes closer to normal along the East Coast (not surprisingly - as I think a dry forecast, though plausible, is a little suspect). So, re-posting my forecast (you can see my other comments/caveats up-thread)... Here's DJFM 2014-15 forecast temps: ...and precip: This is good stuff, millwx. Thanks. Just by looking at your temp anomaly map, you could surmise how the precip anomalies would be oriented, and adding the precip map confirms it. I don't mind being in that middle area between cold and dry and cool and wet. Please...anything but cold and dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 At this point, I don't even care about cold / snow. Just give me a freakin' storm system that impacts the region. Come T-day, I will care about cold / snow. A lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Nice post MillWx. There is unanimous agreement with all mets for a cold and potentially snowy winter. If snow doesn't materialize in some areas it's not really a bust but if it's warm...oh boy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millwx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Nice post MillWx. There is unanimous agreement with all mets for a cold and potentially snowy winter. If snow doesn't materialize in some areas it's not really a bust but if it's warm...oh boy... Agreed, even if it's only moderately cold and we're in the ballpark, I'm ok with that. But if it ends up warm, this will be a colossal fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 How's your CFSv2 looking Mitch? cooling down but still a liitle AN on Temps and at or slightly AN on precip but you knew that since you had looked even before you posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 cooling down but still a liitle AN on Temps and at or slightly AN on precip but you knew that since you had looked even before you posted HAHA, no I didn't. I only go there when I want a good laugh. The bolded is the only thing that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Agreed, even if it's only moderately cold and we're in the ballpark, I'm ok with that. But if it ends up warm, this will be a colossal fail. I think it all comes down to a decent -ao/nao on the means with no extended + period for the forecasts to be fine. Temps can be finicky with strong blocking. 09-10 wasn't really that cold considering the magnitude. But it was persistently BN with few breaks. There weren't huge outbreaks of anomalous cold like last year. If this is a persistently cold DJF with no big warm spells then all forecasts will look fine. Snowfall forecast grades will be more location dependent. From the MA and southward, we can still fail fairly easily in the snowfall dept even when the indices and temps look good. If blocking fails to materialize and/or sustain then this year will be a massive head scratcher and never forgotten irt long lead forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I think it all comes down to a decent -ao/nao on the means with no extended + period for the forecasts to be fine. Temps can be finicky with strong blocking. 09-10 wasn't really that cold considering the magnitude. But it was persistently BN with few breaks. There weren't huge outbreaks of anomalous cold like last year. If this is a persistently cold DJF with no big warm spells then all forecasts will look fine. Snowfall forecast grades will be more location dependent. From the MA and southward, we can still fail fairly easily in the snowfall dept even when the indices and temps look good. If blocking fails to materialize and/or sustain then this year will be a massive head scratcher and never forgotten irt long lead forecasting. I think that if we aren't dominated by ns systems, we can do ok wrt snow.........provided we aren't way above normal on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 This feels like a congrats Raleigh kind of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I think that if we aren't dominated by ns systems, we can do ok wrt snow.........provided we aren't way above normal on temps. I just hope we can get some activity on the southern stream this year. We do ok with northern stream stuff out here. But the guys to the east get screwed constantly by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I just hope we can get some activity on the southern stream this year. We do ok with northern stream stuff out here. But the guys to the east get screwed constantly by them. I never count on anything good from a NS system. Almost always garbage here. I think there will be periods this winter with an active southern stream and a track favorable for the I-95 east crew. Whether we cash in or not remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 This feels like a congrats Raleigh kind of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 We hear that every year, yet we are a 60% of climo over the past 5 seasons. The MA has the hot hand, I suspect that trend will continue. They are probably 120+% over the past 5 seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I never count on anything good from a NS system. Almost always garbage here. I think there will be periods this winter with an active southern stream and a track favorable for the I-95 east crew. Whether we cash in or not remains to be seen. There's no reason to think it will be a northern stream-dominated year, so it better not happen that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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