Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[AlaskaETC]

If you want to get stoked and read an exciting forecast, CWG is not the place to check. It will be fact-based and biased conservative given the DCA microclimate of screwing...

 

DCA climo is what everyone loves to cling too I guess.

[Ian]

DCA climo is what everyone loves to cling too I guess.

I want to live next to the sensor. Tropical. 

[AlaskaETC]

I want to live next to the sensor. Tropical. 

 

LOL...thanks for the good image. Popping up a beach chair on the runway in the midst of December, with a pina colada and all.

[PhineasC]

I want to live next to the sensor. Tropical. 

I'm guessing DCA won't hit freezing during the day until January.

[WxUSAF]

Thank...Coming soon....keep in mind my mission is a bit different than most other outlooks.....I'm only concerned local departures (DCA) and snowfall.....there is no broad brushing or wrong for the right reasons.......I'll do snow for all 3 airports, with my main focus on DCA....I am still not committed to any one scenario, but we are primarily snow weenies and keep in mind that our biggest snow winters are mainly aggregated on either side of a negative-neutral midpoint, and either side of a mod-nino midpoint....weak nino's are suitable snow producers, but they are generally capped...nothing is set in stone yet, all scenarios are still on the table but don't be surprised if I go for less snow than all these broad brush outlooks that plop big +anomalies over us...I wouldn't be surprised if I go for >median, <norm....but who knows...Also, while the outlook is mine,  if Wes and Matt Rogers have any huge objections, I may decide to tweak or revisit.  They have usually given their blessing, and I have done no tweaking, or very minor tweaking...

Yeah, certainly your job is to forecast for DCA and the city.  But, your pattern analysis has been solid and I mentally adjust a DCA-focused temp/snow forecast to the 'burbs. 

[Deck Pic]

Yeah, certainly your job is to forecast for DCA and the city.  But, your pattern analysis has been solid and I mentally adjust a DCA-focused temp/snow forecast to the 'burbs. 

 

Thanks...I'll do broad brush snow for Montgomery/Anne Arundel/BWI and you can extrapolate

[Deck Pic]

I'll pay you to go warm and snowless. 

 

ha...pretty unlikely...but there is always the risk that we have mean blocking, but it is timed poorly, so we have a wretched pattern during the peak of our snow climo (58-59)....but that winter is an outlier...maybe I'll use it as a cautionary tale, but I doubt it will be an analog....it doesn't matter...weenies will be pissed if I don't go for big snow...and I can't imagine going as high as I went in 09-10 (when I still only went 150-175% of 30 yr norm)

[T. August]

 

Allan is going real big this winter. His 3 best analogs are 02-03,09-10 and 58-59. I hope he is right. Very nice read and presentation as well.

 

Have at it.

Attached Files

•   Winter201415Forecast.pdf   1.83MB   4 downloads

 

I'm not sure why people rip on JB for going cold and snowy, but when another forecaster releases a similar forecast, no one freaks out. Maybe because people are scared of numbers. JB actually gives the value of the departures in his forecasts.

 

I am not criticizing Allan's forecast. I enjoyed reading it and I hope it verifies.

[Bob Chill]

I'm not sure why people rip on JB for going cold and snowy, but when another forecaster releases a similar forecast, no one freaks out. Maybe because people are scared of numbers. JB actually gives the value of the departures in his forecasts.

I am not criticizing Allan's forecast. I enjoyed reading it and I hope it verifies.

The thing about JB is he's a spotlight met. And he likes to be dramatic at every turn. It's hard to get behind that from a weenie perspective. There's a flock of underlings on facebook doing the same thing now. It's a disservice to the field in some ways.

I personally see much more value to the output of the mets around here. They try really hard to be correct through fantastic analysis without trying to bowl anyone over with the word "extreme" all the time. He's smart and a decent lr forecaster but I can't get behind him.

[GaWx]

I'm not sure why people rip on JB for going cold and snowy, but when another forecaster releases a similar forecast, no one freaks out. Maybe because people are scared of numbers. JB actually gives the value of the departures in his forecasts.

 

I am not criticizing Allan's forecast. I enjoyed reading it and I hope it verifies.

 

 The problem with JB is his overall bias toward cold as well as snow in especially the NE US/Midwest (as well as extremes regarding storms in general). Also, he has energy clients, making people suspicious that when he goes cold that he's partially trying to help his heating energy clients. That would help them because just the threat of cold often causes heating energy prices (especially NG) to rise since futures markets look ahead. Of course, those prices would ultimately fall back as a correction if the cold doesn't materialize.

 Be that as it may, I happen to think JB's very cold forecast is actually reasonable this time when considering the combo of factors suggesting solid cold. Unfortunately, his past is hurting here....crying wolf syndrome. The problem is that there appears to be an actual wolf this time!

[T. August]

The thing about JB is he's a spotlight met. And he likes to be dramatic at every turn. It's hard to get behind that from a weenie perspective. There's a flock of underlings on facebook doing the same thing now. It's a disservice to the field in some ways.

I personally see much more value to the output of the mets around here. They try really hard to be correct through fantastic analysis without trying to bowl anyone over with the word "extreme" all the time. He's smart and a decent lr forecaster but I can't get behind him.

I definitely agree with this.

 

 The problem with JB is his overall bias toward cold as well as snow in especially the NE US/Midwest (as well as extremes regarding storms in general). Also, he has energy clients, making people suspicious that when he goes cold that he's partially trying to help his heating energy clients. That would help them because just the threat of cold often causes heating energy prices (especially NG) to rise since futures markets look ahead. Of course, those prices would ultimately fall back as a correction if the cold doesn't materialize.

 Be that as it may, I happen to think JB's very cold forecast is actually reasonable this time when considering the combo of factors suggesting solid cold. Unfortunately, his past is hurting here....crying wolf syndrome. The problem is that there appears to be an actual wolf this time!

I see what you mean, and good points. JB issuing cold/snowy forecasts every year takes away the value of them.

[GaWx]

 

I see what you mean, and good points. JB issuing cold/snowy forecasts every year takes away the value of them.

 

 Just to clarify, I'm not at all saying that he forecasts cold/snowy every year and not even nearly every year and assume you didn't take it that way. However, he has overall gone too cold when looking at all of his seasonal forecast lumped together. Plus, he's had some terrible misses to the cold side like in Feb. of 2001 ("ghost of Feb. 1899"..that month ended up pretty mild!) and 2001-2 (vodka cold that never came). Also, base on what another poster said, he may have referenced the "ghost of Feb. 1899" in still another winter though I can't confirm that.

[millwx]

 The problem with JB is his overall bias toward cold as well as snow in especially the NE US/Midwest (as well as extremes regarding storms in general). Also, he has energy clients, making people suspicious that when he goes cold that he's partially trying to help his heating energy clients. That would help them because just the threat of cold often causes heating energy prices (especially NG) to rise since futures markets look ahead. Of course, those prices would ultimately fall back as a correction if the cold doesn't materialize.

 Be that as it may, I happen to think JB's very cold forecast is actually reasonable this time when considering the combo of factors suggesting solid cold. Unfortunately, his past is hurting here....crying wolf syndrome. The problem is that there appears to be an actual wolf this time!

 

GaWx is correct.  I'm not gonna say JB is always cold and snowy for the winter.  I've seen some exceptions from him.  But they are just that, exceptions.  He has a pretty extreme cold/snowy bias.  He is the epitome of the old saying, "even a broken clock is right twice a day".  In other words, if you forecast the same thing year in and year out (yes, again, I realize that's a bit of an oversimplification; I have seen him make other forecasts... but not often), when it actually happens some years, it is NOT a measure of success.  It's the broken clock syndrome.

 

On the other hand, most mets on here and elsewhere TRY to be objective.  I will grant you some objectivity may go out the door this year because so many parameters are aligned well.  Of course, with so many favorable parameters going with a cold and/or snowy winter isn't non-objective.  But I've seen a few forecasters out there who may be going a little overboard... that's all I mean by losing objectivity.  But for the most part, most meteorologists I know and have witnessed on this board will TRY to be dispassionate and make a sound forecast.  I don't want to sound harsh, but I think JB fails the objectivity test.  He will search for reasons to be extreme.  And what then riles the rest of the met community is, on the occasion that the broken clock is right, he crows from the rooftops about how brilliantly he nailed the forecast.  The lack of humility from someone with such a questionable track record rubs a lot of people the wrong way.

[T. August]

 Just to clarify, I'm not at all saying that he forecasts cold/snowy every year and not even nearly every year and assume you didn't take it that way. However, he has overall gone too cold when looking at all of his seasonal forecast lumped together. Plus, he's had some terrible misses to the cold side like in Feb. of 2001 ("ghost of Feb. 1899"..that month ended up pretty mild!) and 2001-2 (vodka cold that never came). Also, base on what another poster said, he may have referenced the "ghost of Feb. 1899" in still another winter though I can't confirm that.

I knew what you meant. He did go warm for 2001-2002.

[GaWx]

I knew what you meant. He did go warm for 2001-2002.

 

No, I'm saying he went cold in 2001-2. By the way, the GFS (then the MRF/AVN) cold bias was crazy that winter soon after a modification that cooled it to reduce false tropical cyclones. So, combine the model's cold bias with JB's cold bias and he really went off of the deep end in 2001-2!

[T. August]

No, I'm saying he went cold in 2001-2. By the way, the GFS (then the MRF/AVN) cold bias was crazy that winter soon after a modification that cooled it to reduce false tropical cyclones. So, combine the model's cold bias with JB's cold bias and he really went off of the deep end in 2001-2!

This is his 2001-2002 winter forecast. I'm pretty sure we agree with each other, but there's a bit of confusion lol.

[GaWx]

This is his 2001-2002 winter forecast. I'm pretty sure we agree with each other, but there's a bit of confusion lol.

 

 This is definitely not nearly as cold as I had recalled he had for the E US. Hmmm. This map suggests he weant near seasonal on average in the NE/E Midwest. I had thought he went colder there. However, even based on this map you provided, JB was still WAY too cold for the NE and Midwest and quite a bit too cold for the MidAtlantic though he was close for the SE. So, overall, it was still a bust

 

 From where did you get this map? Do you have a link?

 

 From my notes from an old JB seasonal scoring file I have kept with my grades:

 

"winter 01-02: poor (F); he predicted a chilly winter overall and it was very warm"

 

Something definitely doesn't jibe here. Anyone else have any info about or memories about JB's 2001-2 forecast?

[AlaskaETC]

The thing that annoys me about JB is that he is all hype and headliners on Twitter and social media, but behind the paywall of Weatherbell, he is much more calm and fact-based apparently. That makes sense, but it is very misleading for him to do that.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Let's not forget this gem lol:

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/combination-of-factors-could-m/36990

[EastCoast NPZ]

Let's not forget this gem lol:

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/combination-of-factors-could-m/36990

 

at least he got one of the winters right.  he should play baseball.

[GaWx]

From my files, JB said this on 1/22/02:

 

"Few people out there realize that the depth of the trof over the eastern United
States in the means Dec 20 through Jan 15. All four major
teleconnection indices lined up perfectly for extreme cold, but the
fact there was no cold air available thwarted it, and when the cross polar flow did
come, because it was so warm in Canada it enhanced the baroclinicity and deepened
the vortex."

 

 and

 

"The Arctic Oscillation and the PNA both responded AFTER the NAO went negative last
time and the models are showing the same trend this time. A crucial question is
this: Will a similar (it cant be the same) response show up aloft, which in the day
10-20 period stick a big trof near 90 west as that is the February result of such
things?"

 

 Something doesn't jibe about that map that was posted that wasn't cold in the NE US. Could Warrior have made an innocent error? As the above two quotes suggest and as I distinclty remember, JB was pretty nonstop calling for cold, sometimes very strong, to dominate the E US in 2001-2.

[wildweatherman179]

at least he got one of the winters right. he should play baseball.

Let's see if he goes 2 for 3 this year. Haha

[GaWx]

This is his 2001-2002 winter forecast. I'm pretty sure we agree with each other, but there's a bit of confusion lol.

 

Warrior,

 From where did you get this map?

[T. August]

Warrior,

 From where did you get this map?

Wow. I made a huge mistake. This is the 2011-2012 winter forecast. Your notes are correct.

 

Please forgive me lol.

[Quixotic1]

 This is definitely not nearly as cold as I had recalled he had for the E US. Hmmm. This map suggests he weant near seasonal on average in the NE/E Midwest. I had thought he went colder there. However, even based on this map you provided, JB was still WAY too cold for the NE and Midwest and quite a bit too cold for the MidAtlantic though he was close for the SE. So, overall, it was still a bust

 

 From where did you get this map? Do you have a link?

 

 From my notes from an old JB seasonal scoring file I have kept with my grades:

 

"winter 01-02: poor (F); he predicted a chilly winter overall and it was very warm"

 

Something definitely doesn't jibe here. Anyone else have any info about or memories about JB's 2001-2 forecast?

 

 

I remember the term siberian express being used a lot and it never materialized......

[PhineasC]

I always love the idea that "the teleconnections lined up for cold but the issue was the cold air just didn't materialize."

 

What a load of BS doublespeak.

[WxUSAF]

I always love the idea that "the teleconnections lined up for cold but the issue was the cold air just didn't materialize."

 

What a load of BS doublespeak.

Except it's straight BS for the 01-02 50mb pattern being good for cold. 

[Kay]

He will search for reasons to be extreme.  And what then riles the rest of the met community is, on the occasion that the broken clock is right, he crows from the rooftops about how brilliantly he nailed the forecast.  The lack of humility from someone with such a questionable track record rubs a lot of people the wrong way.

 

This, and similarly: "As we saw last winter, there is a lot of counter-sentiment to our ideas. I cannot speak for other ideas, but I can let you know what we are looking at. Many of the things you will see us look at, you will find mentioned in other circles after the fact, like last year, if our cold idea comes out correct."

 

His self-congratulatory thing rubs me wrong. 

[millwx]

This, and similarly: "As we saw last winter, there is a lot of counter-sentiment to our ideas. I cannot speak for other ideas, but I can let you know what we are looking at. Many of the things you will see us look at, you will find mentioned in other circles after the fact, like last year, if our cold idea comes out correct."

His self-congratulatory thing rubs me wrong.

And worse, he does this straw-man bs ALL the time. He mentions all the counter-sentiment out there. WTF????? What counter-sentiment?!?!?! Virtually everyone has the same stinkin forecast... for mostly the same reasons!!! He out-and-out lies to try to get his readers to think he's the only one with a cold forecast. Then, if he's right, he can follow it up by (lying) claiming he's the only one that got it right. It infuriates me to no end. His track record sucks. His arrogance is worse. And his lying is the cherry on the top.

Ok, that was harsh.

But honest.

[Kay]

And worse, he does this straw-man bs ALL the time. He mentions all the counter-sentiment out there. WTF????? What counter-sentiment?!?!?! Virtually everyone has the same stinkin forecast... for mostly the same reasons!!! He out-and-out lies to try to get his readers to think he's the only one with a cold forecast. Then, if he's right, he can follow it up by (lying) claiming he's the only one that got it right. It infuriates me to no end. His track record sucks. His arrogance is worse. And his lying is the cherry on the top.

Ok, that was harsh.

But honest.

 

Ha - let it all out! Arrogance was the word I was searching for. There are so many talented mets here who have so much more humility and class about it, whether right or wrong.