Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[WxUSAF]

Right.  I think the difference from 06, for example, is that the WPAC was cooler, where this year the whole equatorial band is slightly above normal.  This year, it certainly looks like the EPAC would be the source of a Nino, but for those little cold pockets which are bringing down the average. 

 

At this point, I think hoping for some magical tenth-of-a-degree threshold to be crossed is just for record keeping purposes.  The atmosphere is behaving Nino-ish to a degree already and it doesn't look like where were going to get a major bump in SSTAs to +1 or anything.

[Deck Pic]

Right.  I think the difference from 06, for example, is that the WPAC was cooler, where this year the whole equatorial band is slightly above normal.  This year, it certainly looks like the EPAC would be the source of a Nino, but for those little cold pockets which are bringing down the average. 

 

At this point, I think hoping for some magical tenth-of-a-degree threshold to be crossed is just for record keeping purposes.  The atmosphere is behaving Nino-ish to a degree already and it doesn't like where were going to get a major bump in SSTAs to +1 or anything.

 

This is a bit outside my comfort zone, but I talked to Will recently about warning signs for 2006, and NH stratospheric temps , particularly over eastern Siberia, plummeted in November...right now, I believe we are running close to normal, and above normal over eastern siberia...and the pattern never responded to Nino that year...even Feb 2007 wasn't particularly nino-esque....and the AO was outrageously positive in Dec-Jan.....It isn't going to be an analog for me..

[wildweatherman179]

Sorry to change the subject a little but I have a question. What makes the years 1979-80 and 2003-04 decent analogs for this winter? I guess I don't see it very well. I keep seeing these in people's lists but not a year like 1977-78, which to me is probably the best fit in a lot of regards in my opinion. Just curious as to why. Thanks.

[Bob Chill]

Another nice euro ens run. 3 in a row with the return to the aleutian trough and ridge in the goa/pna region.

 

Interesting signs at the pole as well. Strong h5 vortex splits with one lobe heading towards hudson and ridge signal across the pole.

[Deck Pic]

Another nice euro ens run. 3 in a row with the return to the aleutian trough and ridge in the goa/pna region.

 

Interesting signs at the pole as well. Strong h5 vortex splits with one lobe heading towards hudson and ridge signal across the pole.

 

even the op is changing its mind and showing a block over the bering strait...we're fine

[Minnesota Meso]

Sorry to change the subject a little but I have a question. What makes the years 1979-80 and 2003-04 decent analogs for this winter? I guess I don't see it very well. I keep seeing these in people's lists but not a year like 1977-78, which to me is probably the best fit in a lot of regards in my opinion. Just curious as to why. Thanks

 

First of all I don't like 03/04 that well. If you look at it the ESNO the year before, 02/03 was a moderate to strong EL Nino, last year we had a cool neutral phase. i like 77-78 based on the values alone being in the .7 to .8 range, but 76-77 was a weak Nino.  79/80 looks like a warm neutral to weak Nino, that was preceded by a year of cool neutral readings in 78-79, much like we saw last year.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[Bob Chill]

even the op is changing its mind and showing a block over the bering strait...we're fine

 

I'm starting to feel much less nervous. Which is probably a bad thing...

 

This is the d10-15 mean. Looks awful good (especially compared to what was showing a week ago) and comparable to other Novembers that went cold in Dec. 

 

[wildweatherman179]

First of all I don't like 03/04 that well. If you look at it the ESNO the year before, 02/03 was a moderate to strong EL Nino, last year we had a cool neutral phase. i like 77-78 based on the values alone being in the .7 to .8 range, but 76-77 was a weak Nino. 79/80 looks like a warm neutral to weak Nino, that was preceded by a year of cool neutral readings in 78-79, much like we saw last year.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

I see. Thanks! For some reason just by looking at sst maps, I thought we were positive neutral last year. Surprised me to see as low as -.6 at one point.

[WxUSAF]

I'm starting to feel much less nervous. Which is probably a bad thing...

 

This is the d10-15 mean. Looks awful good (especially compared to what was showing a week ago) and comparable to other Novembers that went cold in Dec. 

 

d10-15mean.GIF

Really nice look right there. 

[Minnesota Meso]

I see. Thanks! For some reason just by looking at sst maps, I thought we were positive neutral last year. Surprised me to see as low as -.6 at one point.

 

WildWx your welcome

[RDM]

Well...if you want to get a warm fuzzy feeling about winter just read Raleighwx post in the we begin thread on the main page. Good stuff and it's coming from a trusted experienced source

Would you mind posting the link.  Looked around and can't seem to find a "We Begin" thread.  Thanks much. 

[T. August]

Would you mind posting the link.  Looked around and can't seem to find a "We Begin" thread.  Thanks much. 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44473-and-we-begin/page-14

[packbacker]

I'm starting to feel much less nervous. Which is probably a bad thing...

 

This is the d10-15 mean. Looks awful good (especially compared to what was showing a week ago) and comparable to other Novembers that went cold in Dec. 

 

d10-15mean.GIF

 

Bob - you seeing anything that would say November as a whole will be well below normal?  Evidently a met, who used to frequent these boards, is going with the meat locker forecast from Nov-March.

[Bob Chill]

Bob - you seeing anything that would say November as a whole will be well below normal? Evidently a met, who used to frequent these boards, is going with the meat locker forecast from Nov-March.

Not really. We'll probably be near normal come mid month. Even with the pattern change showing up down the line, Canada looks fairly benign.

If we start to see hl blocking set up with ridging in the goa/west coast it could deliver some cold. Still a ways to go before we get out of the goa trough pattern.

Personally, I see extreme cold on the means for Nov quite unlikely but the second half of the month could end up cold if things line up right.

[WxUSAF]

Not really. We'll probably be near normal come mid month. Even with the pattern change showing up down the line, Canada looks fairly benign.

If we start to see hl blocking set up with ridging in the goa/west coast it could deliver some cold. Still a ways to go before we get out of the goa trough pattern.

Personally, I see extreme cold on the means for Nov quite unlikely but the second half of the month could end up cold if things line up right.

GEFS showing a nice progression to an Aleutian low and ridging over the Pole by Day 10.  I agree that it doesn't mean we'll get cold, but it looks like north central Canada (our cold air source region) could go into the meat locker with some -10 - -20C 850 temps.  First half of Nov looks really progressive with probably at least 2 solid cold shots in the first 8 days and also a couple days that hit 70-80F. 

[millwx]

Don't know if anyone cares... just my opinion, among many others.  Here's my DJF 2014-15 temperature forecast (strictly analog-based):

 

 

Notes:

 

1) Cross-posting to the NE and NYC forums... apologies for cluttering if you follow all of them

2) I have a model which detrends old data, which is why I can use old analogs, but...

3) ...for that reason, for map generation, I use the anomaly to the 1895-2000 period

4) ...but you should consider the anomaly as being to the current climo period (1981-2010)

5) If you want to know my analog years, you can see them in small print at the top of the map

6) If you want to know why some years appear more than once, it's my way of up-weighting the better analogs

7) I don't expect you to agree 100% on my analogs (through my own analyses I've come up with some parameters I use that I'm pretty sure no one else does.  I also don't use some parameters that most folks do.  And even those parameters common amongst all forecasters - I may be giving them different weighting).  So, don't flip out if you don't agree with my analogs - just accept it as a difference of opinion.

8) Precip is, surprisingly, a little below normal on the East Coast in these analog seasons.  But it's marginal.  I didn't look at snow, but I imagine in areas where precip type is typically an issue, the solid cold anomaly will override the weak dry anomaly for an above normal snowfall winter.  Colder/interior locales, where precip type is usually snow, may run a bit below normal (but probably not much, as the cold anomalies may help them on the edge of the season - when they DO have ptype issues; and, if it's colder than normal during the events, ratios could be aided).

9) Like most folks appear to agree on... my analogs reflect something similar... a back-weighted winter.  Dec is cold, but nothing special.  Jan/Feb drive the DJF anomalies.

[EastCoast NPZ]

It would be sweet if that verifies, millwx.

[Bob Chill]

Nice post Millwx. My biggest fears of wasting December are declining rapidly. Looks like a transition to a non-scary pattern through mid Novie is becoming more clear. Certainly trending away from any look of Novs that preceded warm Decembers.

There seems to be mutual agreement with just about everyone that Jan/Feb will be cold. If they end up warm it will be one of the bigger busts I've ever seen on the boards and in the met community.

I tend to shy away from old analogs for the simple reason that things have changed and the last 15 to 20 winters really haven't delivered in the cold department compared to many. Last winter was remarkable for the upper mw/gl region. One for the ages. But in my arm chair mind I can only think if that same height pattern happened 50 years ago it would have been even more brain freezing. It wouldn't surprise me if my lack of faith in old analogs is totally flawed though.

For us to get +climo snow it's fairly important for December to deliver at least a modest event or 2. Wasting Dec in recent history shows it's tough to get good totals on the season. Last year wasn't really "big" until March. Which was pretty awesome. But depending on late Feb/Mar to up the totals will end in failure way more often than not around here. Not to mention snow during Dec has a much easier time sticking around than late season. Gives more appeal when the snow isn't gone shortly after lunch. lol.

I'm not too worried about precip totals here. We average around 12" and only need 2-3" of that to be snow for a big year. We obviously get a good bit of winter rain and it's expected. However, a favorable storm track and temps can easily offset a neg precip anomaly.

Lastly, big years share one thing in common...big storms... Without a big storm or 2 we really struggle. Big in my opinion is 8-10"+ in the cities and more in the burbs. We have a habit of wasting good patterns for good storms. Can't really talk about big storms until they are on our doorstep. The longer we have a pattern that supports a decent event the better chance we have at not failing.

[nflwxman]

Nice post Millwx. My biggest fears of wasting December are declining rapidly. Looks like a transition to a non-scary pattern through mid Novie is becoming more clear. Certainly trending away from any look of Novs that preceded warm Decembers.

There seems to be mutual agreement with just about everyone that Jan/Feb will be cold. If they end up warm it will be one of the bigger busts I've ever seen on the boards and in the met community.

I tend to shy away from old analogs for the simple reason that things have changed and the last 15 to 20 winters really haven't delivered in the cold department compared to many. Last winter was remarkable for the upper mw/gl region. One for the ages. But in my arm chair mind I can only think if that same height pattern happened 50 years ago it would have been even more brain freezing. It wouldn't surprise me if my lack of faith in old analogs is totally flawed though.

For us to get +climo snow it's fairly important for December to deliver at least a modest event or 2. Wasting Dec in recent history shows it's tough to get good totals on the season. Last year wasn't really "big" until March. Which was pretty awesome. But depending on late Feb/Mar to up the totals will end in failure way more often than not around here. Not to mention snow during Dec has a much easier time sticking around than late season. Gives more appeal when the snow isn't gone shortly after lunch. lol.

I'm not too worried about precip totals here. We average around 12" and only need 2-3" of that to be snow for a big year. We obviously get a good bit of winter rain and it's expected. However, a favorable storm track and temps can easily offset a neg precip anomaly.

Lastly, big years share one thing in common...big storms... Without a big storm or 2 we really struggle. Big in my opinion is 8-10"+ in the cities and more in the burbs. We have a habit of wasting good patterns for good storms. Can't really talk about big storms until they are on our doorstep. The longer we have a pattern that supports a decent event the better chance we have at not failing.

 

Exactly.  Our standard deviation for snowfall is higher than approximately 80% of the rest of the country for that reason. Our climo is so tied to cold season moisture laden bombs.  This variability also applies to most weather events in our neighborhood..wind, rainfall, etc.

[ravensrule]

Allan is going real big this winter. His 3 best analogs are 02-03,09-10 and 58-59. I hope he is right. Very nice read and presentation as well.

 

Have at it.

Attached Files

•   Winter201415Forecast.pdf   1.83MB   4 downloads
  

[millwx]

Nice post Millwx. My biggest fears of wasting December are declining rapidly. Looks like a transition to a non-scary pattern through mid Novie is becoming more clear. Certainly trending away from any look of Novs that preceded warm Decembers.

There seems to be mutual agreement with just about everyone that Jan/Feb will be cold. If they end up warm it will be one of the bigger busts I've ever seen on the boards and in the met community.

I tend to shy away from old analogs for the simple reason that things have changed and the last 15 to 20 winters really haven't delivered in the cold department compared to many. Last winter was remarkable for the upper mw/gl region. One for the ages. But in my arm chair mind I can only think if that same height pattern happened 50 years ago it would have been even more brain freezing. It wouldn't surprise me if my lack of faith in old analogs is totally flawed though.

For us to get +climo snow it's fairly important for December to deliver at least a modest event or 2. Wasting Dec in recent history shows it's tough to get good totals on the season. Last year wasn't really "big" until March. Which was pretty awesome. But depending on late Feb/Mar to up the totals will end in failure way more often than not around here. Not to mention snow during Dec has a much easier time sticking around than late season. Gives more appeal when the snow isn't gone shortly after lunch. lol.

I'm not too worried about precip totals here. We average around 12" and only need 2-3" of that to be snow for a big year. We obviously get a good bit of winter rain and it's expected. However, a favorable storm track and temps can easily offset a neg precip anomaly.

Lastly, big years share one thing in common...big storms... Without a big storm or 2 we really struggle. Big in my opinion is 8-10"+ in the cities and more in the burbs. We have a habit of wasting good patterns for good storms. Can't really talk about big storms until they are on our doorstep. The longer we have a pattern that supports a decent event the better chance we have at not failing.

 

I concur on the "old analogs", Bob.  That's why I... A) De-trend the data when doing the analogs (you can't even match SSTs properly without de-trending, never mind whether or not the air temperature anomalies reflect reality); and B... drew the map using the long term (1895-2000) climatology... it is a colder climo, which should, by definition, correct for the fact that we're in a warmer regime these days.  If I used the same set of analogs plotted from the 1981-2010 climo my map would've been an absolutely brutal icebox.  So, while I agree with you in principle, I think/hope I've overcome that problem both on the analog end AND on the air temperature end.

 

As for the "big storm" issue that you and nflwxman mentioned... absolutely, 100% agree.  I lived in the Mid-Atl for 13 years.  While areas further north MIGHT be able to get by fine on smaller storms (racking up dozens of 2-4" events), in the MA the season is shorter and ptype is an issue (at least for SOME storms) even in colder than normal winters.  You really need to bang out one or two high end storms.  I'm SURE there are exceptions if we go back and look at the history books (because the average is low enough, I'm sure the MA can occasionally pull off the "several small events pushing it over the normal snow amounts" trick).  Problem is, those low end events are harder to get in the MA (hard to get good clippers that far south).  So... yeah... you almost need a couple high end storms to get above normal seasonal snowfall in the MA.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Cold without precip is the worst.  I'd like to see some precip analogs and storm tracks.

[WxUSAF]

 

Allan is going real big this winter. His 3 best analogs are 02-03,09-10 and 58-59. I hope he is right. Very nice read and presentation as well.

 

Have at it.

Attached Files

•   Winter201415Forecast.pdf   1.83MB   4 downloads

 

Nice read from Allan.  I'm excited and frightened by the uniformity of all the expert's forecasts for cold/snowy.  Very interested to see Matt's outlook. 

[AlaskaETC]

Nice read from Allan.  I'm excited and frightened by the uniformity of all the expert's forecasts for cold/snowy.  Very interested to see Matt's outlook. 

I am eagerly awaiting CWG's forecast.

[millwx]

Cold without precip is the worst.  I'd like to see some precip analogs and storm tracks.

 

I didn't post the precip map... not because I didn't want to be the bearer of bad news, LOL (yes, it is somewhat dry).  The problem is, the analog seasons are all over the place.  And if I make just a subtle subjective adjustment (toss a couple seasons that don't fit the overwhelming pattern shown by the other analogs, and then replace them with the next analogs on the list), the precip ends up near normal for the analog mean.  Precip is just too hit or miss.  Obviously, if you're in the heart of a strong anomaly on the map, THAT would be a real signal.  Otherwise, it's a crap shoot.

 

The one thing I *would* say about precip... everyone seems to agree (and it does show on my analogs as well) that the Midwest and OH/TN Valleys will be dry, while somewhere in the Southeast (how deep into the SE you need to go varies on the forecasts) it will be wet.  So, for Mid-Atlantic folks, I think it's safe to say that - "safe" assuming the forecasts are approximately in the ballpark - you want to be in the I95 corridor and coastal plain, not in the foothills or Apps (no, I don't think DC will see more snow than the Appalachians... but relative to normal, DC should at least see more precip).  That much we can say.  Beyond that, I wouldn't put any bets on precipitation.

[Deck Pic]

Nice read from Allan.  I'm excited and frightened by the uniformity of all the expert's forecasts for cold/snowy.  Very interested to see Matt's outlook. 

 

 

I am eagerly awaiting CWG's forecast.

 

Thank...Coming soon....keep in mind my mission is a bit different than most other outlooks.....I'm only concerned local departures (DCA) and snowfall.....there is no broad brushing or wrong for the right reasons.......I'll do snow for all 3 airports, with my main focus on DCA....I am still not committed to any one scenario, but we are primarily snow weenies and keep in mind that our biggest snow winters are mainly aggregated on either side of a negative-neutral midpoint, and either side of a mod-nino midpoint....weak nino's are suitable snow producers, but they are generally capped...nothing is set in stone yet, all scenarios are still on the table but don't be surprised if I go for less snow than all these broad brush outlooks that plop big +anomalies over us...I wouldn't be surprised if I go for >median, <norm....but who knows...Also, while the outlook is mine,  if Wes and Matt Rogers have any huge objections, I may decide to tweak or revisit.  They have usually given their blessing, and I have done no tweaking, or very minor tweaking...

[Ian]

I'll pay you to go warm and snowless. 

[Bob Chill]

Nice read from Allan. I'm excited and frightened by the uniformity of all the expert's forecasts for cold/snowy. Very interested to see Matt's outlook.

Yea, me too. It would be a colossal bust for the ages and would bring tears to the eyes of the collective board. It would be hard to endure as it unfolds. Someone should hedge and go warm so they can claim elite victory if everything implodes.

I'm not worried about precip at all tbh. We'll prob end up within 1sd of normal one way or the other. Just a wag but we haven't had much problem in the precip department all year.

If a socal/4corners storm track happens off and on, we'll get our liquid or frozen water unless some stupid se ridge pops up. Which is unlikely. Even if the sw doesn't get hit it still doesn't matter if we can get a western ridge at times. Even last year we had an active southern stream but things didn't pop until ns energy hit tx.

Only a month to go before the real fun begins!

[PhineasC]

If you want to get stoked and read an exciting forecast, CWG is not the place to check. It will be fact-based and biased conservative given the DCA microclimate of screwing...

[PhineasC]

 

Allan is going real big this winter. His 3 best analogs are 02-03,09-10 and 58-59. I hope he is right. Very nice read and presentation as well.

 

Have at it.

Attached Files

•   Winter201415Forecast.pdf   1.83MB   4 downloads

 

Damn, that is nice.