WinterWxLuvr Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 For winters with a QBO of less than -15 in September and a +PDO: Temp: Precip: That precip map is interesting. There must be some dry years west of the Apps, and some east, but I don't know what pattern can be dry in both places at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Then why add in the QBO if you're not going to adjust for ENSO, SAO/MQI, and solar forcing? Looks like trunk wiggling to me.. The QBO is 10x more important to our climo than the PDO, so when you use it wrong it'll render the PDO irrelavent to the statistical derivition anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 SoC, I know that you've said that there is a good signal when the QBO is used in combination with ENSO and solar and I don't doubt your knowledge about this. However, wouldn't it make the sample size ridiculously small when you consider the numerous permutations of these three things? And that 's not even considering the AO, PDO, etc. These are warm neutral to weak nino with a +PDO. I did this really quick, I didn't limit to a -AO or -QBO either, just the +ENSO/+PDO.... I did this really quick, hopefully I didn't miss one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 December for first el nino years...I looked at 16 first year el nino's...11 warm and five cold...five years had above average snowfall in NYC...five years had a trace or less...three years had at least 10" of snowfall...two years had a storm 8" or more...snowfall average is slightly below for the 16 years in NYC...2009 has the only 10" or greater storm...the averages favor a milder than average December better than 2 to 1...the cold years 1963, 1968, 1976, 2002, 2009 had a cold winter over all and only 1976-77 didn't get a KU event...the warm years 1951, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1986, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2004, 2006.....1957, 1965, 1982, 1994, 2004 had KU storms later in the winter...1986 was a mid Atlantic winner...I left out second year el ninos...1952, 1953, 1958, 1969, 1977, 1987... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Eurasia snow cover 10/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 CAPE Check out the main snowcover thread. Apparently, a lot of that SC you see on your map over Scandanavia and SE of there has melted away! A supposed massive loss! Then again, why does your map still show it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Yep, when adjusted for stage progression, ENSO, and solar, I get a much higher correlation than I do for the PDO. I'll try to post some hard numbers on this soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 CAPE Check out the main snowcover thread. Apparently, a lot of that SC you see on your map over Scandanavia and SE of there has melted away! A supposed massive loss! Then again, why does your map still show it? IDK. That is supposedly updated daily. This link shows the snowfall over the last 7 days. Any snow that was already on the ground prior does not show up on this one...but even so it aligns pretty closely. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/eurasia?type=snow.last7days&&over=none&&symbols=snow&hr=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Yep, when adjusted for stage progression, ENSO, and solar, I get a much higher correlation than I do for the PDO. I'll try to post some hard numbers on this soon. what are your sample sizes?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Yep, when adjusted for stage progression, ENSO, and solar, I get a much higher correlation than I do for the PDO. I'll try to post some hard numbers on this soon. Take out ENSO adjustments and see how good it is. If it doesn't work without ENSO, then the PDO is more important since the PDO is essentially a reflection of ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Take out ENSO adjustments and see how good it is. If it doesn't work without ENSO, then the PDO is more important since the PDO is essentially a reflection of ENSO. I can't run that statistical analysis. The QBO relationship to DC climo (DJF) varies by ENSO phase. With La Niña/cold neutral ENSO, a +QBO tends to favor stronger/more amplified ridge over both the N-PAC & N-ATL, which often break into the EPO/NAO domains and deliver Arctic air (2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14), while La Niñas in a -QBO often feature less of a ridge (2007-08, 2011-12). Meanwhile, it's often the other way with Niños (-QBO tends to be colder than +QBO), but solar seems to be a much larger factor in this case..I'm not sure why, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I can't run that statistical analysis. The QBO relationship to DC climo (DJF) varies by ENSO phase. With La Niña/cold neutral ENSO, a +QBO tends to favor a stronger/more amplified N-PAC ridge, which often breaks into the EPO domain and delivers Arctic air (2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14), while La Niñas in a -QBO often feature less of a ridge (2007-08, 2011-12). Meanwhile, it's often the other way with Niños (-QBO tends to be colder than +QBO), but solar seems to be a much larger factor in this case..I'm not sure why, though. Around here the one notable thing with a -QBO/Nino ( mod/strong nino events ) is snowfall is not as bad as the years with a +QBO/Mod-strong Nino. It is one of the things that kept me from following the typical Nino climo in the northern Plains ( AN temps ) etc and BN snow around here. I went colder in the N.Plains and snowier around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Around here the one notable thing with a -QBO/Nino ( mod/strong nino events ) is snowfall is not as bad as the years with a +QBO/Mod-strong Nino. It is one of the things that kept me from following the typical Nino climo in the northern Plains ( AN temps ) etc and BN snow around here. I went colder in the N.Plains and snowier around here.. Harry, I am working to colder temps in the Northern Plains as well. As a matter of fact I think it is as close to a slam dunk as long term forecasting can get...say a 70% chance of verifying. What can go wrong?? Basically the only thing that can go wrong is if the cold air gets dumped to the other side of the pole. I have started my winter forecast over at The Minnesota Forecaster site. It will be put out in a series of shorter posts. http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/ And this is encouraging. Look at where the warm air in the Stratosphere is progged to be by the Euro out 240 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Looks like the snow and ice data is finally back online NH Snow cover....some melting on the western edge last few days... http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover.php?begmonth=10&begday=1&begyear=2014&endmonth=10&endday=28&endyear=2014®ion=nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Well...if you want to get a warm fuzzy feeling about winter just read Raleighwx post in the we begin thread on the main page. Good stuff and it's coming from a trusted experienced source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/10/cold-winters-tied-to-drop-in-arctic-sea-ice/ Interesting article I found this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/10/cold-winters-tied-to-drop-in-arctic-sea-ice/ Interesting article I found this morning. Why am I not surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I can't run that statistical analysis. The QBO relationship to DC climo (DJF) varies by ENSO phase. With La Niña/cold neutral ENSO, a +QBO tends to favor stronger/more amplified ridge over both the N-PAC & N-ATL, which often break into the EPO/NAO domains and deliver Arctic air (2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14), while La Niñas in a -QBO often feature less of a ridge (2007-08, 2011-12). Meanwhile, it's often the other way with Niños (-QBO tends to be colder than +QBO), but solar seems to be a much larger factor in this case..I'm not sure why, though. .perhaps you can show us more when you have a chance...i would never use the word often with a sample of 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Well...if you want to get a warm fuzzy feeling about winter just read Raleighwx post in the we begin thread on the main page. Good stuff and it's coming from a trusted experienced source It sounds good, but having the moderate El Nino his analysis is based on seems really unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It sounds good, but having the moderate El Nino his analysis is based on seems really unlikely. He says weak to moderate but I'm sure the closer to weak lessens the impact but still a fun read. Better than some of the cocksure stuff some of these young bucks are spewing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Well...if you want to get a warm fuzzy feeling about winter just read Raleighwx post in the we begin thread on the main page. Good stuff and it's coming from a trusted experienced source we're probably going to have a blocky winter...we just need it during our best climo periods,....having major blocking in Dec 2010 did us no good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 we're probably going to have a blocky winter...we just need it during our best climo periods,....having major blocking in Dec 2010 did us no good... December is a strange winter month...having the holidays in it makes it more nostalgic to get snow but reality is it's basically March.....I just like it to be seasonable as we get closer to the 20th or so...anything that happens prior is gravy IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Matt, when are you releasing your forecast? There are some early signs that Dec "could" start off cold. If the SCE/SAI verifies with the -ao response, it really comes down to timing of onset. I highly doubt we redux 2012's -ao/warm Dec. If the blocking onset comes earlier (which seems to happen slightly more often than later) then Dec could end up cooler than my earlier thoughts of starting the month with a -pna/no blocking. The return of the Aleutian low that was showing on the weeklies towards the 3 week of Nov is now showing on the euro ens in the d10-15 range. It's only been 2 runs now showing the transition away from the GOA trough/Aleutian ridge but it still resembles the weeklies idea for mid-late Nov. If a pattern like that verifies and has staying power, then it would contrast quite a bit from how late Nov looked in 03. 03 had a stout positive height anomaly south of the aleutians: 06 also had crappy height patterns in the pac with ak ridge/goa and western Canada trough during the second half of Nov. 1977, 2002 and 2009 all transitioned away from the low height anomalies in the GOA/western Canada during the second half of Nov and had an aleutian low / ridging building somewhere east of that (all 3 years had different + height anomaly locations but in the right places). 09 flipped right at the end of the month. Before anyone jumps on me for mentioning these 3 years and thinking big snow, I'm only using them as tools to see how Dec may progress temperature wise. I'm just tossing out some ideas of what Nov can tell us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Matt, when are you releasing your forecast? There are some early signs that Dec "could" start off cold. If the SCE/SAI verifies with the -ao response, it really comes down to timing of onset. I highly doubt we redux 2012's -ao/warm Dec. If the blocking onset comes earlier (which seems to happen slightly more often than later) then Dec could end up cooler than my earlier thoughts of starting the month with a -pna/no blocking. The return of the Aleutian low that was showing on the weeklies towards the 3 week of Nov is now showing on the euro ens in the d10-15 range. It's only been 2 runs now showing the transition away from the GOA trough/Aleutian ridge but it still resembles the weeklies idea for mid-late Nov. If a pattern like that verifies and has staying power, then it would contrast quite a bit from how late Nov looked in 03. 03 had a stout positive height anomaly south of the aleutians: nov03.GIF 06 also had crappy height patterns in the pac with ak ridge/goa and western Canada trough during the second half of Nov. 1977, 2002 and 2009 all transitioned away from the low height anomalies in the GOA/western Canada during the second half of Nov and had an aleutian low / ridging building somewhere east of that (all 3 years had different + height anomaly locations but in the right places). 09 flipped right at the end of the month. Before anyone jumps on me for mentioning these 3 years and thinking big snow, I'm only using them as tools to see how Dec may progress temperature wise. I'm just tossing out some ideas of what Nov can tell us. probably next week.....Those are all good points....I don't know yet if Dec will be cold, but I don't fear some 2006/1994 scenario where a vortex gets locked up north of AK.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 December is a strange winter month...having the holidays in it makes it more nostalgic to get snow but reality is it's basically March.....I just like it to be seasonable as we get closer to the 20th or so...anything that happens prior is gravy IMO Yes but 2"-3" of snow might linger for days with the December sun angle, in March it's probably gone by lunchtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Yes but 2"-3" of snow might linger for days with the December sun angle, in March it's probably gone by lunchtime. Agree. March is spring to me. December is winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 In case anybody hasn't looked since the site was down for a while, here's the latest. PDO better and nino floundering around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Really classic looking +PDO. Nino looks more east based and is probably only being held back from being a legit east-based Nino by those little pockets of really cold water around the Galapagos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Really classic looking +PDO. Nino looks more east based and is probably only being held back from being a legit east-based Nino by those little pockets of really cold water around the Galapagos. Yeah...those pockets are cold water are really holding. What causes isolated cold waters like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Really classic looking +PDO. Nino looks more east based and is probably only being held back from being a legit east-based Nino by those little pockets of really cold water around the Galapagos. Yea, definitely like the look of the npac basin as a whole. I'm not seeing any signs of a hostile pattern setting up. Should continue the look through November (hopefully....famous last words..lol). I'll defer on the east/central/west nino config. The difference in anoms through the regions isn't very significant over much real estate. I really don't know what kind of impact any config would have irt sensible wx considering the weakness overall. When I think of an east based weak/mod I think more of an 06 type of look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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