Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[Deck Pic]

Seems like a typical Bastardi forecast. Like most long-range forecasters he'll find some way to give himself no less than a B+ no matter what happens.

 

He has always been demonstrably and lazily ignorant of DC climo...if you take the mid-point of his -3 to -5, and apply it to today's norm, we have achieved it 3 times in the last 50 winters...so he is calling for a historically cold winter....

[hosj III]

He has always been demonstrably and lazily ignorant of DC climo...if you take the mid-point of his -3 to -5, and apply it to today's norm, we have achieved it 3 times in the last 50 winters...so he is calling for a historically cold winter....

Do you really think a national forecaster cares about the climo in any particular city? Especially one who is cold-biased and ignorant? Especially one who gets clicks by being alarmist and feeding the weenies?

[T. August]

Does anyone know where his old forecasts are? I wonder what he called for in October 2011.

I found his forecast for 2011-2012 issued on December 1, 2011.

 

[Bob Chill]

He has always been demonstrably and lazily ignorant of DC climo...if you take the mid-point of his -3 to -5, and apply it to today's norm, we have achieved it 3 times in the last 50 winters...so he is calling for a historically cold winter....

 

It's hard enough to pull a single month off at -3 to -5. Obviously it's easier for IAD/BWI etc but no small feat there either. Stringing 3 of those in a row seems like a very low probability chance at verifying. 

[T. August]

His 2011-2012 forecast wasn't really that bad. He got the below normal in the West right, but was a bit too cool over the Plains.

[packbacker]

It's hard enough to pull a single month off at -3 to -5. Obviously it's easier for IAD/BWI etc but no small feat there either. Stringing 3 of those in a row seems like a very low probability chance at verifying. 

 

His temp map isn't a whole lot different than 09/10, we are in -3 to -5 and that's what we were back in 09/10.  Maybe a little colder.

 

[HighStakes]

Actually he should care about climo of specific region's despite being a national forecaster because his main area he concentrates on is the east coast regardless of his denial that he doesn't neglect the rest of the country. Like zwyts said he is ignorant of dc climate but calling him ignorant in general is a stretch. The problem of some of these guys is that they think they are celebrities and their egos are out of control and that diminishes their talents and abilities. JB takes a lot of abuse which he brings on himself quite often but don't think for one minute he isn't talented. You can't hit a grand slam with only two on but he seems to think you can and he's far from the only one.

Do you really think a national forecaster cares about the climo in any particular city? Especially one who is cold-biased and ignorant? Especially one who gets clicks by being alarmist and feeding the weenies?

[mitchnick]

Does anyone know where his old forecasts are? I wonder what he called for in October 2011.

as of last year, they still had them on the Accuwx pay site

they may be gone by know, idk

[GaWx]

It's hard enough to pull a single month off at -3 to -5. Obviously it's easier for IAD/BWI etc but no small feat there either. Stringing 3 of those in a row seems like a very low probability chance at verifying.

I'm normally not a defender of JB when it comes to his rather common cold E US forecasts. However, I think those who are already dismissing this are acting too hastily in this case for a combo of these 3 reasons: 1) A top 4 highest SAI as well as perhaps a top 2 Eurasian SCE and a high OPI all suggest a very good chance of a strong -AO this winter, especially if we actually get El Niño.

2) We had a Sept PDO of over +1 in Sep. A whopping 17 of 17 winters that had a Sep PDO greater than +0.70 had a +PDO the following winter. 3) A weak El Niño looks likely to JB and to myself. Weak to low end moderate Nino's have as a group easily been the coldest ENSO in the E US overall based on many decades of data. When these are combined with solid +PDO and -AO, then it is very clearcut how cold they are as a group.

Assuming we'll get all three of these things, would anyone here honestly bet against a solidly cold winter? Please be honest. If so, why? Packbacker has the right idea in citing 2009-10 and that was a strong Niño. Weak to low end moderate have been colder than strong overall. A weak Niño with solid -AO and +PDO is almost as if the slot machine is showing 7-7-7 as far as cold winter chances are concerned.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

How come none of these guys can ever make a map where the colors match the map key?

 

Also during winter 2011-2012, I thought he later backpedaled when the models kept showing a pattern change in the long term (that never happened). He said Feb. 2012 was going to be like Feb. 1899 or some nonsense.... or maybe that was some other long range guy. I swear it was him though.

[hosj III]

I'm normally not a defender of JB when it comes to his rather common cold E US forecasts. However, I think those who are already dismissing this are acting too hastily in this case for a combo of these 3 reasons: 1) A top 4 highest SAI as well as perhaps a top 2 Eurasian SCE and a high OPI all suggest a very good chance of a strong -AO this winter, especially if we actually get El Niño.

2) We had a Sept PDO of over +1 in Sep. A whopping 17 of 17 winters that had a Sep PDO greater than +0.70 had a +PDO the following winter. 3) A weak El Niño looks likely to JB and to myself. Weak to low end moderate Nino's have as a group easily been the coldest ENSO in the E US overall based on many decades of data. When these are combined with solid +PDO and -AO, then it is very clearcut how cold they are as a group.

Assuming we'll get all three of these things, would anyone here honestly bet against a solidly cold winter? Please be honest. If so, why? Packbacker has the right idea in citing 2009-10 and that was a strong Niño. Weak to low end moderate have been colder than strong overall. A weak Niño with solid -AO and +PDO is almost as if the slot machine is showing 7-7-7 as far as cold winter chances are concerned.

 

For winters with a QBO of less than -15 in September and a +PDO:

 

Temp:

 

Precip:

 

[WxUSAF]

How come none of these guys can ever make a map where the colors match the map key?

 

Also during winter 2011-2012, I thought he later backpedaled when the models kept showing a pattern change in the long term (that never happened). He said Feb. 2012 was going to be like Feb. 1899 or some nonsense.... or maybe that was some other long range guy. I swear it was him though.

I remember him constantly chasing the upcoming pattern change and vodka cold in 01-02. 

[GaWx]

How come none of these guys can ever make a map where the colors match the map key?

 

Also during winter 2011-2012, I thought he later backpedaled when the models kept showing a pattern change in the long term (that never happened). He said Feb. 2012 was going to be like Feb. 1899 or some nonsense.... or maybe that was some other long range guy. I swear it was him though.

During the winter of 2000-01, he talked nonsense about the "ghost of Feb. 1899" nonstop as regards Feb. of 2001. What a disaster of a forecast! Feb. of 2001 was pretty mild overall!

[AlaskaETC]

During the winter of 2000-01, he talked nonsense about the "ghost of Feb. 1899" nonstop as regards Feb. of 2001. What a disaster of a forecast! Feb. of 2001 was pretty mild overall!

Hilarious...

[GaWx]

For winters with a QBO of less than -15 in September and a +PDO:

Temp:

hosj,

IMO, the QBO is not nearly as reliable an indicator as a strong -AO and weak to low end moderate Nino's. Also, note that the map you produced is still not warm dominated. It is near normal to slightly colder than normal everywhere.

I recommend you look at weak to low end moderate Niño winters with solid -AO and + PDO and see what you get for temperatures.

Edit: I'm addressing the concern people are having for JB's intense cold, only. Snowfall is irrelevant to the point I'm trying to make.

[StudentOfClimatology]

For winters with a QBO of less than -15 in September and a +PDO:

Uh, you need to adjust for the maturity of the QBO (MQI/SAOet al), as well as ENSO and Solar forcing as well. Otherwise you'll end up with a clusterfook.

People say the QBO isn't statistically relevant because they don't know how to use it.

[GaWx]

I remember him constantly chasing the upcoming pattern change and vodka cold in 01-02.

I remember that clearly. That was the first winter after the May of 2001 major MRF/AVN modification that was done to, among other things, reduce the # of false tropical cyclones. This accomplished that goal but also introduced a strong cold bias that resulted in numerous false alarms that winter for intense to even record-breaking cold. JB kept believing these MRF/AVN runs and would ignore their cold bias. Their cold bias along with his cold bias resulted in another horrible winter for him.

[hosj III]

Shoddy analysis. You need to adjust for ENSO, Solar, and the maturity of the QBO/SAO (MQI et al). Otherwise you'll end up with a clusterfook.

It wasn't meant to be in depth. Just showing that +PDO doesn't always mean favorable PNA.

[StudentOfClimatology]

It wasn't meant to be in depth. Just showing that +PDO doesn't always mean favorable PNA.

Then why add in the QBO if you're not going to adjust for ENSO, SAO/MQI, and solar forcing? Looks like trunk wiggling to me..

The QBO is 10x more important to our climo than the PDO, so when you use it wrong it'll render the PDO irrelavent to the statistical derivition anyway.

[hosj III]

Then why add in the QBO if you're not going to adjust for ENSO, SAO/MQI, and solar forcing? Looks like trunk wiggling to me..

Jesus.... I was just showing that +PDO falls can dissapoint in situations at least somewhat similar to what we have now. 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Jesus.... I was just showing that +PDO falls can dissapoint in situations at least somewhat similar to what we have now.

Apologies if I sounded like an ass. Nothing against you, just that sort of analysis is a pet peeve of mine.

[hosj III]

Sorry, wasn't trying to be an ass. Just a pet peeve of mine.

Makes sense... You are clearly much better-read in this stuff than I.

 

What are your thoughts on the pacific/PNA/EPO given the factors you stated?

[GaWx]

Jesus.... I was just showing that +PDO falls can dissapoint in situations at least somewhat similar to what we have now.

Hosj

I think you should consider looking at winter temperatures for winters with all of these: +PDO (say DJF averaging +0.50+ on Mantua), -AO ( say DJF averaging -0.75-), and weak to low end moderate El Niño's (say, with trimonthly fall/winter peak of no higher than +1.3).

The QBO signal IMO is too weak and it will also make the sample size too small.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Makes sense... You are clearly much better-read in this stuff than I.

What are your thoughts on the pacific/PNA/EPO given the factors you stated?

I kind of agree with Bob Chill et al, at least through December 20th. Energy ratio between Walker/Hadley cells has been super small, with low frequency poleward AAM transport continuing over the last several months. Similar in some respects to 1979-80 and 2003-04, so December may end up looking like one of those classic El Niño composites, probably warm over 69-75% of the U.S., centered over the Northern Plains.

I still think the hammer comes down hard in January, though.

[StudentOfClimatology]

The QBO signal IMO is too weak and it will also make the sample size too small.

It's only weak if you use it wrong.

[Bob Chill]

I kind of agree with Bob Chill et al, at least through December 20th. Energy ratio between Walker/Hadley cells has been super small, with low frequency, poleward AAM transport continuing over the last several months. Similar in some respects to 1979-80 and 2003-04, so December may end up looking like one of those classic El Niño composites, probably warm over 69-75% of the U.S., centered over the Northern Plains.

I still think the hammer comes down hard in January, though.

 

The second half of Nov is pretty important. I could see the pattern transitioning to pronounced ridging in the goa/nw canada with low heights underneath off the coast of CA. Toss in a -ao response and Dec could start or transition to cold fairly quickly. Of course that could be a short period sandwiched between 2 crappy patterns. 

 

Split flow is only good for us when the northern stream can buckle down this way. If my hypothetical scenario took place with no help from hl blocking then it's pretty warm just about everywhere as you said. 

 

I think Dec has more questions than answers tbh. Some signs of a slow start are there and past history says it happens more often than not. But those darn unexpecteds enjoy f'n with our mind. 

[StudentOfClimatology]

The second half of Nov is pretty important. I could see the pattern transitioning to pronounced ridging in the goa/nw canada with low heights underneath off the coast of CA. Toss in a -ao response and Dec could start or transition to cold fairly quickly. Of course that could be a short period sandwiched between 2 crappy patterns.

Split flow is only good for us when the northern stream can buckle down this way. If my hypothetical scenario took place with no help from hl blocking then it's pretty warm just about everywhere as you said.

I think Dec has more questions than answers tbh. Some signs of a slow start are there and past history says it happens more often than not. But those darn unexpecteds enjoy f'n with our mind.

I agree on the return to an Aleutian Low by mid November, based on tropical forcing progression. Unfortunately I don't think we'll have much help from the AO/NAO. However, the Aleutian Low will probably start bombarding the strat with cyclonic breaker action, which can only be a good thing.

I hope you're right about December, lol. I'm not saying I think we're going to torch, but I don't see a deep -AO getting going until January.

[aldie 22]

I agree on the return to an Aleutian Low by mid November, based on tropical forcing progression. Unfortunately I don't think we'll have much help from the AO/NAO. However, the Aleutian Low will probably start bombarding the strat with cyclonic breaker action, which can only be a good thing.

I hope you're right about December, lol. I'm not saying I think we're going to torch, but I don't see a deep -AO getting going until January.

I will give you one thing...you don't lack in confidence

[HighStakes]

I remember him constantly chasing the upcoming pattern change and vodka cold in 01-02. 

I remember it very clearly. In fact he never gave up even leading into March. You might remember he would do those point counterpoint videos. I forget who he was on with but it was somewhere around the last week of February and he was really pumped up about the upcoming pattern in March and the main topic of the video was the amount of snowfall that would fall in DC over the next 30 days. The over/under was set at 15 inches and of course he took the over.

[GaWx]

It's only weak if you use it wrong.

SoC,

I know that you've said that there is a good signal when the QBO is used in combination with ENSO and solar and I don't doubt your knowledge about this. However, wouldn't it make the sample size ridiculously small when you consider the numerous permutations of these three things? And that 's not even considering the AO, PDO, etc.