Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[Sparky]

Pretty remarkable cold month. 22.9 sticks out the a sore thumb compared to the other monthly numbers shown above. Hard to believe there wasn't one notable snowfall with that much sustained cold for that long a period. Feb. 1979 was another incredibly cold month but as you know there was plenty of snow that month.

We did have a 5 incher early in the month (in Balto city) along with a few 1-2 inchers scattered throughout.  It was a snow covered month for the most part which lasted into early Feb.  I guess not notable snowfall amounts but the 5 inch was more than welcome along with the cold which kept it on the ground.

[Sparky]

I still recall the lack of snow in 1/77 being very disheartening

at least there was no internet so I never did realize how decent a snow winter it was in NE until talk of that winter surfaced in the last few weeks thanks to the -AO

I did take a ride out to the eastern fringes of Garrett County at the end of January.....talk about depressing   

Your memory is bad.  Y'all are going to make me break out my record book.  I had about 11 inches of snow in Jan. alone living in northeast Baltimore.

[uncle W]

from a previous post...The last two years are Baltimore city...Before that BWI...I assume last years 2/13-14 storm was 11.5" before it turned to rain?..1949-50 (the first winter of my life) was the worst...2009-10 the best...the obs are for any time of day...some estimated...

.................days..........consecutive...
season.....1"...6"...10"....1"...6"...10"...max depth

1947-48....21...01...00....10...01...00.....6"
1948-49....08...01...00....03...01...00.....6"
1949-50....00...00...00....00...00...00.....trace
1950-51....06...00...00....02...00...00.....2"
1951-52....06...01...00....03...01...00.....6"
1952-53....07...00...00....02...00...00.....3"
1953-54....18...02...00....09...02...00.....6"
1954-55....12...00...00....04...00...00.....2"
1955-56....21...01...00....14...01...00.....6"
1956-57....15...01...00....08...01...00.....6"
1957-58....35...11...05....10...07...05...16"
1958-59....05...00...00....02...00...00.....1"
1959-60....23...08...01....12...04...01...10"

1960-61....52...20...03....30...05...01...13"
1961-62....20...02...01....09...02...01...10"
1962-63....32...00...00....20...00...00.....5"
1963-64....35...08...00....11...02...00.....9"
1964-65....22...00...00....13...00...00.....5"
1965-66....23...11...06....18...10...06...17"
1966-67....28...10...03....08...05...02...10"
1967-68....22...02...00....05...02...00.....8"
1968-69....09...00...00....03...00...00.....3"
1969-70....24...01...00....10...01...00.....6"

1970-71....10...01...00....06...01...00.....6"
1971-72....11...00...00....08...00...00.....4"
1972-73....02...00...00....02...00...00.....1"
1973-74....13...02...00....06...01...00.....6"
1974-75....11...00...00....04...00...00.....4"
1975-76....07...02...00....03...02...00.....8"
1976-77....21...00...00....16...00...00.....3"
1977-78....31...03...00....12...03...00.....9"
1978-79....25...11...05....19...06...05...22"
1979-80....14...00...00....06...00...00.....5"

1980-81....03...00...00....02...00...00.....2"
1981-82....29...10...00....19...07...00.....8"
1982-83....19...07...06....11...06...06...23"
1983-84....20...00...00....10...00...00.....5"
1984-85....13...00...00....06...00...00.....3"
1985-86....14...00...00....07...00...00.....5"
1986-87....21...12...10....14...11...05...17"
1987-88....18...02...00....10...02...00.....7"
1988-89....09...00...00....03...00...00.....3"
1989-90....28...00...00....22...00...00.....5"

1990-91....07...00...00....03...00...00.....4"
1991-92....04...00...00....02...00...00.....2"
1992-93....15...04...01....07...04...01...11"
1993-94....24...00...00....07...00...00.....4"
1994-95....08...01...00....08...01...00.....7"
1995-96....28...15...11....12...12...11...25"
1996-97....12...01...00....07...01...00.....6"
1997-98....03...00...00....01...00...00.....1"
1998-99....17...00...00....06...00...00.....5"
1999-00....23...05...04....22...05...04...15"

2000-01....10...00...00....04...00...00.....4"
2001-02....03...00...00....03...00...00.....2"
2002-03....42...10...05....19...06...05...18"
2003-04....22...03...00....13...03...00.....6"
2004-05....17...00...00....08...00...00.....5"
2005-06....10...01...01....05...01...01...13"
2006-07....13...00...00....07...00...00.....4"
2007-08....08...00...00....04...00...00.....4"
2008-09....10...00...00....05...00...00.....5"
2009-10....38...26...18....25...17...13...34"
2010-11....17...01...00....11...01...00.....7"
2011-12....01...00...00....01...00...00.....1"

2012-13....06...00...00....03...00...00.....3"

2013-14....37...02...01....10...01...01...11"

...............................................................................

Most/least days 1"
52 1960-61 ... 00 1949-50
42 2002-03 ... 01 2011-12
38 2009-10 ... 02 1972-73

37 2013-14 ... 03 1980-81
35 1957-58 ... 03 1997-98
35 1963-64 ... 03 2001-02
32 1962-63 ... 04 1991-92
31 1977-78 ... 05 1958-59
29 1981-82 ... 06 1950-51
28 1966-67 ... 06 1951-52
28 1989-90 ... 06 2012-13
28 1995-96 ...
..........................................
days 6"
26 2009-10
20 1960-61
15 1995-96
12 1986-87
11 1957-58
11 1965-66
11 1978-79
10 1966-67
10 1981-82
10 2002-03
days 10"
17 2009-10
11 1995-96
10 1986-87
06 1965-66
06 1982-83
05 1957-58
05 1978-79
05 2002-03
04 1999-00
Consecutive days 1"
30 1960-61
25 2009-10
22 1989-90
22 1999-00
21 1960-61* two separate streaks..
20 1962-63
19 1978-79
19 1981-82
19 2002-03
18 1965-66
Consecutive days 6"
17 2009-10
12 1995-96
11 1986-87
10 1965-66
07 1957-58
07 1981-82
06 1978-79
06 1982-83
06 2002-03
Consecutive days 10"
13 2009-10
11 1995-96
06 1965-66
06 1982-83
05 1957-58
05 1978-79
05 1986-87
05 2002-03
04 1999-00
Maximum depth...
34" 2009-10
25" 1995-96
23" 1982-83
22" 1978-79
18" 2002-03
17" 1965-66
17" 1986-87
16" 1957-58
15" 1999-00
13" 1960-61
13" 2005-06
11" 1992-93

11" 2013-14
10" 1959-60
10" 1961-62
10" 1966-67

[mitchnick]

Your memory is bad.  Y'all are going to make me break out my record book.  I had about 11 inches of snow in Jan. alone living in northeast Baltimore.

BWI had 8.5" officially and I lived SE of there back then

7-8" for what is one of, if not the, coldest month on record is meh imho

especially since the biggest snowfall was 4-5" out of 1 storm

[mitchnick]

So much for Nino.

[WVclimo]

from a previous post...The last two years are Baltimore city...Before that BWI...I assume last years 2/13-14 storm was 11.5" before it turned to rain?..1949-50 (the first winter of my life) was the worst...2009-10 the best...the obs are for any time of day...some estimated

That is great stuff. Thanks, Uncle, for putting that together.

[uncle W]

That is great stuff. Thanks, Uncle, for putting that together.

thanks...I got the idea from a 1973 weatherwise magazine...it looks like the greatest period was from 1957-58 to 1966-67...seven of the ten years had at least 9" on the ground at one time...

[aldie 22]

So depending on what type math you use there is either a ton of snow up north or no snow at all...it's like politics lol

[CAPE]

So depending on what type math you use there is either a ton of snow up north or no snow at all...it's like politics lol

Math? Eyeball test works for me

 

[T. August]

Math? Eyeball test works for me

 

SnowIceCover_Daily.jpg

I really love that view. Where is that from? Is there a way to go back to archived days/months/years with that particular view?

[CAPE]

I really love that view. Where is that from? Is there a way to go back to archived days/months/years with that particular view?

EL Dorado Weather...world wide daily snow and ice map. And no not that I can see. A lot of the other snow cover links on that site dont work. With the network outage its difficult to find updated snow and ice data over the past week (at least for free). DT posted a cool animation of the snow advance over the past 10 days on his FB page.

[T. August]

EL Dorado Weather...world wide daily snow and ice map. And no not that I can see. A lot of the other snow cover links on that site dont work. With the network outage its difficult to find updated snow and ice data over the past week (at least for free). DT posted a cool animation of the snow advance over the past 10 days on his FB page.

Thanks. I just looked at DT's page, and that's a really interesting animation. Also cool to see the ice expanding towards the coast.

[mitchnick]

SSTA animnation

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

[CAPE]

SSTA animnation

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

Interesting animation. Not so much for Nino(which looks kinda meh), but whats going on in the NE Pacific. While there is definite cooling of SSTs in the gulf of Alaska, there its still a large area of anomalously warm SSTs just south of there(north of Hawaii). Be interesting to see how things evolve going forward. The warmth in the NE PAC seems to have been a major player in the cold pattern for the central and eastern US last winter, so continued cooling there might be a tad concerning. 

[hosj III]

Interesting animation. Not so much for Nino(which looks kinda meh), but whats going on in the NE Pacific. While there is definite cooling of SSTs in the gulf of Alaska, there its still a large area of anomalously warm SSTs just south of there(north of Hawaii). Be interesting to see how things evolve going forward. The warmth in the NE PAC seems to have been a major player in the cold pattern for the central and eastern US last winter, so continued cooling there might be a tad concerning. 

Isn't the consensus here that the SSTA's in the NPAC are more a product of the pattern than a driver? Anyways, the PDO is still positive and has ticked up as the WPAC has cooled. It really would be strange to see a -PNA pattern with such a positive PDO this winter.

[Bob Chill]

Isn't the consensus here that the SSTA's in the NPAC are more a product of the pattern than a driver? Anyways, the PDO is still positive and has ticked up as the WPAC has cooled. It really would be strange to see a -PNA pattern with such a positive PDO this winter.

It's an open debate irt sstas in northern latitudes. Imho- sstas respond to the pattern more than vice versa. If you remember my posts from last spring I thought differently until I really started dissecting last year and other years with a similar config.

Those warm anoms in the ne pac weren't going to last forever and it's perfectly logical that they are being eroded now. And will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The goa trough isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

From what i'm seeing it looks like we are continuing to move towards a classic +pdo config and that's a good sign. However, worrying about a -pna during winter on the means is valid. Time will tell there. Won't know for a while. If the ridging east of Japan and south of the aluetians continues for a while we could see unfavorable trends in the npac ssta's.

[mitchnick]

It's an open debate irt sstas in northern latitudes. Imho- sstas respond to the pattern more than vice versa. If you remember my posts from last spring I thought differently until I really started dissecting last year and other years with a similar config.

Those warm anoms in the ne pac weren't going to last forever and it's perfectly logical that they are being eroded now. And will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The goa trough isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

From what i'm seeing it looks like we are continuing to move towards a classic +pdo config and that's a good sign. However, worrying about a -pna during winter on the means is valid. Time will tell there. Won't know for a while. If the ridging east of Japan and south of the aluetians continues for a while we could see unfavorable trends in the npac ssta's.

must you always be so d@mned sobering?  

[hosj III]

It's an open debate irt sstas in northern latitudes. Imho- sstas respond to the pattern more than vice versa. If you remember my posts from last spring I thought differently until I really started dissecting last year and other years with a similar config.

Those warm anoms in the ne pac weren't going to last forever and it's perfectly logical that they are being eroded now. And will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The goa trough isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

From what i'm seeing it looks like we are continuing to move towards a classic +pdo config and that's a good sign. However, worrying about a -pna during winter on the means is valid. Time will tell there. Won't know for a while. If the ridging east of Japan and south of the aluetians continues for a while we could see unfavorable trends in the npac ssta's.

Isn't the PNA during a nino affected in a large way by where it is based? As much as people love to scream MODOKI, we are really more in an east based nino right now. Maybe the trough will shift west by the time the nino establishes a more central/west based look in a couple months and the tropical convection shifts west. I hope we don't miss out on December due to a strong  -PNA.

 

That reminds me, if we are supposed to see a DJF ao of -2.2 according to the OPI, when is that going to manifest itself? I know many here have discussed the SSW event occuring in Late December/Early January.

[hosj III]

must you always be so d@mned sobering?  

Honestly, people are getting way too caught up in the cold+snow hype that happens every October.

[mitchnick]

Honestly, people are getting way too caught up in the cold+snow hype that happens every October.

I know, I was just bustin' his chops, hence the

if we can get climo here, we'll be lucky....and that goes for every year

[Bob Chill]

Isn't the PNA during a nino affected in a large way by where it is based? As much as people love to scream MODOKI, we are really more in an east based nino right now. Maybe the trough will shift west by the time the nino establishes a more central/west based look in a couple months and the tropical convection shifts west. I hope we don't miss out on December due to a strong -PNA.

That reminds me, if we are supposed to see a DJF ao of -2.2 according to the OPI, when is that going to manifest itself? I know many here have discussed the SSW event occuring in Late December/Early January.

We aren't in a Nino and if we get there it will be a squeaker at best. The circulation seems to behaving Nino like but that's not really saying much. Without a mod+ Nino we can't bank on anything in the lr. East or West in a warm neutral or weak Nino doesn't really mean much compared to stronger events. There is no reason to simply assume a +pna.

-AOs are important for cold and snow here. No questioning that and I think we will get that for a good stretch this winter. But even then things can fight it. Dec 2012 had a killer -ao that was useless. No saying I think we repeat but the pac killed it.

I'm not negative on this winter. Mitch thinks I've lost my weenievision...lol...but honestly I'm just trying to be grounded in what I've witnessed and researched. I don't see a lock of cold and snow like the forecasts that are being tossed around. There are things that can go wrong but nobody likes to talk about them.

I'm basically optimistic about this winter overall but definitely fear what can go wrong

[mitchnick]

We aren't in a Nino and if we get there it will be a squeaker at best. The circulation seems to behaving Nino like but that's not really saying much. Without a mod+ Nino we can't bank on anything in the lr. East or West in a warm neutral or weak Nino doesn't really mean much compared to stronger events. There is no reason to simply assume a +pna.

-AOs are important for cold and snow here. No questioning that and I think we will get that for a good stretch this winter. But even then things can fight it. Dec 2012 had a killer -ao that was useless. No saying I think we repeat but the pac killed it.

I'm not negative on this winter. Mitch thinks I've lost my weenievision...lol...but honestly I'm just trying to be grounded in what I've witnessed and researched. I don't see a lock of cold and snow like the forecasts that are being tossed around. There are things that can go wrong but nobody likes to talk about them.

I'm basically optimistic about this winter overall but definitely fear what can go wrong

at my age, that means soooo much more than was intended      lol

[packbacker]

We aren't in a Nino and if we get there it will be a squeaker at best. The circulation seems to behaving Nino like but that's not really saying much. Without a mod+ Nino we can't bank on anything in the lr. East or West in a warm neutral or weak Nino doesn't really mean much compared to stronger events. There is no reason to simply assume a +pna.

-AOs are important for cold and snow here. No questioning that and I think we will get that for a good stretch this winter. But even then things can fight it. Dec 2012 had a killer -ao that was useless. No saying I think we repeat but the pac killed it.

I'm not negative on this winter. Mitch thinks I've lost my weenievision...lol...but honestly I'm just trying to be grounded in what I've witnessed and researched. I don't see a lock of cold and snow like the forecasts that are being tossed around. There are things that can go wrong but nobody likes to talk about them.

I'm basically optimistic about this winter overall but definitely fear what can go wrong

Has there been many bad +PDO,-AO, -QBO, weak Nino's for you guys? For the SE its good odds (knock on wood).

[Bob Chill]

Has there been many bad +PDO,-AO, -QBO, weak Nino's for you guys? For the SE its good odds (knock on wood).

There's not enough recent ones to draw any conclusions. 76-77 and 03-04 weren't great in the snow department. It's too muddy trying to use those 3 indices. Limited modern history and small dataset. In the MA, a warm neutral/weak Nino, -ao, -qbo combo isn't really a strong signal.

[Absolute Humidity]

There's not enough recent ones to draw any conclusions. 76-77 and 03-04 weren't great in the snow department. It's too muddy trying to use those 3 indices. Limited modern history and small dataset. In the MA, a warm neutral/weak Nino, -ao, -qbo combo isn't really a strong signal.

I agree and love reading your posts. There are also other factors to consider as well. Solar, if the sun becomes mostly quiet, strong -QBO will support strat warming. The all east coast important Atlantic SST configuration currently is ideal for and supports a strong winter time -NAO, which by 2009-10 standards trumps a crappy Pacific for the mid-Atlantic. Not saying the MA is lock for an AN snowfall, just saying the chances for it are equal to or a bit better than BN IMHO when factoring the Atlantic.

[Bob Chill]

I agree and love reading your posts. There are also other factors to consider as well. Solar, if the sun becomes mostly quiet, strong -QBO will support strat warming. The all east coast important Atlantic SST configuration currently is ideal for and supports a strong winter time -NAO, which by 2009-10 standards trumps a crappy Pacific for the mid-Atlantic. Not saying the MA is lock for an AN snowfall, just saying the chances for it are equal to or a bit better than BN IMHO when factoring the Atlantic.

Thanks,.appreciate the compliment. The nao has been mostly absent for a few winters in a row. Would love to see it active this year. Just having it wax and wane can be quite helpful in buckling the flow and slowing things down. We do well on phase changes here.

I agree about early signs showing an chances at getting some storms in these parts. We have a weird climo though. In the last 25 years we either hit a home run or have an acute talent at finishing below climo. Not sure why that's been so consistent. Seems like the modest +climo winters stopped in the 80's.

I don't really care about brutal cold. It's novel but can be boring. A risk we face this season with the big cold forecasts is good blocking but not having source regions loaded up. Which is fine. It will still be cold enough for frozen. Brutal cold isn't necessary.

It's interesting how the big blocking event this month didn't really have any cold air to work with. Other Octs with big blocking events are mixed with temps as well. Oct 03's was mild in the conus. Winter is obviously a different beast though.

[Absolute Humidity]

Agreed. It would certainly be nice to see the return of a robust -NAO and widespread MECS/HECS from RIC to Portland.

[Deck Pic]

Region 4 kind of blew up this weekend. Is this the beginning?

[GaWx]

Region 4 kind of blew up this weekend. Is this the beginning?

 

 I'll be quite surprised if we don't get an official ONI based Nino starting about now retroactively.

However, look for some +SOI days soon! The Euro suggests the +SOI period is going to start within a couple of days and will peak ~10/31-11/1 with +SOI days still lingering for at least a few days after that. Regardless, October as a whole will come in near -6 to -7, a pretty solid Nino type of month and the 5th -SOI month in a row.

[wildweatherman179]

I'll be quite surprised if we don't get an official ONI based Nino starting about now retroactively.

However, look for some +SOI days soon!

If it becomes official now, it would make this year to date an uncanny match for 1977-78 if I'm not mistaken. Pretty awesome.