Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[AlaskaETC]

Bastardi is hyping 02-03, 09-10 type winter and if you trust the Jamstec there is support.  IMHO...too early to make call...all the players have not been identified...yet.

 

That would be a nice payoff.

[mitchnick]

Bastardi is hyping 02-03, 09-10 type winter and if you trust the Jamstec there is support.  IMHO...too early to make call...all the players have not been identified...yet.

.....................

[Charles123]

So how does next winter look? Cold and Snowy or Dry and Warm? How strong will El Nino get?

[Bob Chill]

Bastardi is just doing what he does best. Considering we are likely due for a solid mod to possible strong nino, 02-03 & 09-10 are the only 2 recent analogs. What else can you hype?

Cold/snowy is far from a lock imo. We can have problems with some of the teleconnections. If we don't get a -nao/ao on the means and have a persistent GOA vortex then we all bask in pac air. Further N can do ok with that but we can't. There is just no way of knowing how things shake out. The only thing you can say at this lead is that the winter will probably be AN with precip.

[WinterWxLuvr]

So how does next winter look? Cold and Snowy or Dry and Warm? How strong will El Nino get?

Dry is rarely a bad call. Lately anyway.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Bastardi is just doing what he does best. Considering we are likely due for a solid mod to possible strong nino, 02-03 & 09-10 are the only 2 recent analogs. What else can you hype?

Cold/snowy is far from a lock imo. We can have problems with some of the teleconnections. If we don't get a -nao/ao on the means and have a persistent GOA vortex then we all bask in pac air. Further N can do ok with that but we can't. There is just no way of knowing how things shake out. The only thing you can say at this lead is that the winter will probably be AN with precip.

Bob, enough with analogs, teleconnections, enso, etc.

Just post the CFSv2 map for Dec 5.

[wildweatherman179]

Wow, I finally found a group asking and thinking about all the exact same things as me at this point. I'm from eastern Oklahoma, so nowhere near you all, but I like the looks of things so far for both my backyard and yours. :-) Did some digging and 09-10 definitely comes to mind and 1911-12. Both, happened to be quite cold and snowy. I believe 1933-34 is on the list also. I just like the looks of things this year all the way around. Although it is very very early. I'm actually more interested in the NPAC ssts at this point than I am in El Niño. Odd as it may sound but I think the warm pool may have a fighting chance of hanging around. We shall see, but I hope it does.

[wildweatherman179]

Does the CPC even study the weather anymore?!? Calling for much warmer than normal across 4/5 of the country this December. WTF?!?

[MN Transplant]

Does the CPC even study the weather anymore?!? Calling for much warmer than normal across 4/5 of the country this December. WTF?!?

 

[AlaskaETC]

usT850SeaInd6.gif

The dreaded pacific air winter?

[mattie g]

The dreaded pacific air winter?

Aren't Decembers normally warm in Niños?

[mitchnick]

Aren't Decembers normally warm in Niños?

the great ones are usually cold, but we can still score in JAN-FEB in a NINO that has an above normal DEC if memory serves

[Bob Chill]

Nino's typically don't have harsh cold in our parts. Matt probably has good stats but iirc, our colder winters temp wise are non nino years. Southern storm track is where it's at for snow and nino's produce that more often than not. AN temps in a nino on the means are fine as long as they aren't caused by a pac onslaught.

09-10 had big snows but the Dec storm melted pretty quick as did the Feb storms considering they were like 10' deep. 02-03 was a nice combination of snow and cold during JFM.

After last season I'm kinda rooting for the big storm up and down the coast and not worrying much about door to door stuff. I had a ton of fun tracking last year and the area totals shocked just about everyone in the MA. We're due for a big NC-ME coastal. Let's get a 1'+ storm from Raleigh to Augusta. Amwx needs it.

[wildweatherman179]

Nino's typically don't have harsh cold in our parts. Matt probably has good stats but iirc, our colder winters temp wise are non nino years. Southern storm track is where it's at for snow and nino's produce that more often than not. AN temps in a nino on the means are fine as long as they aren't caused by a pac onslaught.

09-10 had big snows but the Dec storm melted pretty quick as did the Feb storms considering they were like 10' deep. 02-03 was a nice combination of snow and cold during JFM.

After last season I'm kinda rooting for the big storm up and down the coast and not worrying much about door to door stuff. I had a ton of fun tracking last year and the area totals shocked just about everyone in the MA. We're due for a big NC-ME coastal. Let's get a 1'+ storm from Raleigh to Augusta. Amwx needs it.

I'll root for you guys on that, as long as it cuts a huge swath of 10+ snow through Oklahoma first. :-)

[uncle W]

all five cities average decade snowfall went up after last year...Philadelphia is running way above average since 2009-10...

Snowfall averages for the ten year period starting with 1889-90...
decade.......................Washington.Baltimore. Philadelphia. New York. Boston
1889-90 to 1898-99..........25.7"..........24.5"..........23.8"..........35.8"..........53.5"*
1899-00 to 1908-09..........23.4"..........21.9"..........25.5"..........28.8"..........39.8"
1909-10 to 1918-19..........20.9"..........22.8"..........28.9"..........30.6"..........39.1"
1919-20 to 1928-29..........15.3"..........19.7"..........19.7"..........29.5"..........43.2"
1929-30 to 1938-39..........18.3"..........22.5"..........18.2"..........24.5"..........37.5"
1939-40 to 1948-49..........17.6"..........23.4"..........21.4"..........32.8"..........42.9"
1949-50 to 1958-59..........12.8"..........14.7"..........15.2"..........20.1"..........37.2"
1959-60 to 1968-69..........24.8"..........32.4"..........29.1"..........32.0"..........49.4"
1969-70 to 1978-79..........14.6"..........17.8"..........21.7"..........22.5"..........44.6"
1979-80 to 1988-89..........18.1"..........18.5"..........20.4"..........19.7"..........32.7"
1989-90 to 1998-99..........12.9"..........17.7"..........18.5"..........24.4"..........49.7"
1999-00 to 2008-09..........12.7"..........18.0"..........20.7"..........28.0"..........44.9"
2009-10 to 2013-14..........20.6"..........28.0"..........40.6"..........40.8"..........49.7"

[mitchnick]

all five cities average decade snowfall went up after last year...Philadelphia is running way above average since 2009-10...

Snowfall averages for the ten year period starting with 1889-90...

decade.......................Washington.Baltimore. Philadelphia. New York. Boston

1889-90 to 1898-99..........25.7"..........24.5"..........23.8"..........35.8"..........53.5"*

1899-00 to 1908-09..........23.4"..........21.9"..........25.5"..........28.8"..........39.8"

1909-10 to 1918-19..........20.9"..........22.8"..........28.9"..........30.6"..........39.1"

1919-20 to 1928-29..........15.3"..........19.7"..........19.7"..........29.5"..........43.2"

1929-30 to 1938-39..........18.3"..........22.5"..........18.2"..........24.5"..........37.5"

1939-40 to 1948-49..........17.6"..........23.4"..........21.4"..........32.8"..........42.9"

1949-50 to 1958-59..........12.8"..........14.7"..........15.2"..........20.1"..........37.2"

1959-60 to 1968-69..........24.8"..........32.4"..........29.1"..........32.0"..........49.4"

1969-70 to 1978-79..........14.6"..........17.8"..........21.7"..........22.5"..........44.6"

1979-80 to 1988-89..........18.1"..........18.5"..........20.4"..........19.7"..........32.7"

1989-90 to 1998-99..........12.9"..........17.7"..........18.5"..........24.4"..........49.7"

1999-00 to 2008-09..........12.7"..........18.0"..........20.7"..........28.0"..........44.9"

2009-10 to 2013-14..........20.6"..........28.0"..........40.6"..........40.8"..........49.7"

that BWI highlighted number just goes to show you how BWI snow averages are misleading:

 

09/10-77"

10/11-14.4"

11/12-1.8"

12/13-8"

13/14-39"

[WinterWxLuvr]

Nino's typically don't have harsh cold in our parts. Matt probably has good stats but iirc, our colder winters temp wise are non nino years. Southern storm track is where it's at for snow and nino's produce that more often than not. AN temps in a nino on the means are fine as long as they aren't caused by a pac onslaught.

09-10 had big snows but the Dec storm melted pretty quick as did the Feb storms considering they were like 10' deep. 02-03 was a nice combination of snow and cold during JFM.

After last season I'm kinda rooting for the big storm up and down the coast and not worrying much about door to door stuff. I had a ton of fun tracking last year and the area totals shocked just about everyone in the MA. We're due for a big NC-ME coastal. Let's get a 1'+ storm from Raleigh to Augusta. Amwx needs it.

I'd rather have 50 2" snows.

On another note, is the niño dying?

[CAPE]

I'd rather have 50 2" snows.

On another note, is the niño dying?

We don't have a Nino yet. Still neutral, and at "watch" status. I just read the latest ENSO update from CPC a few days ago. Most models still show an El Nino of at least +0.5 C developing by fall and persisting through the winter.

[AlaskaETC]

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/06/long-range-guidance-supporting-snowy.html

 

I like the sound of this.

[CAPE]

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/06/long-range-guidance-supporting-snowy.html

 

I like the sound of this.

Not sure what his background is, but I was pretty impressed with some of his write ups last winter, especially one he did on SSW events. His presentation of the data and his rationale in his discussions are well organized. Its a tad early but he also has a (detailed) preliminary 2014-15 winter forecast out.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I'd rather have 50 2" snows.

50 2" snows would be boring as fook.

[WinterWxLuvr]

50 2" snows would be boring as fook.

Yeah. Snow every other day. Snow pack all winter. I see your point.

How about no snows of at least 2". You like that idea better?

[StudentOfClimatology]

Yeah. Snow every other day. Snow pack all winter. I see your point.

How about no snows of at least 2". You like that idea better?

I'd prefer two 50" storms. Flurries/light snow every other day would get boring very fast, imo

[wildweatherman179]

50 2" snows would be boring as fook.

I love snow as much as the next guy but that would be about like eating your favorite food every single day. Lol. It would get old pretty fast.

[WinterWxLuvr]

You guys don't love snow. You love extreme weather events. Real snow lovers would love snow every day, all winter long.

[PhineasC]

Yeah. Snow every other day. Snow pack all winter. I see your point.

How about no snows of at least 2". You like that idea better?

The idea of wanting long-term "snowpack" in downtown DC is laughable at best. Of course he'd rather have a few big storms than a couple of inches every day or two that turns black and melts during the day even with temps below freezing...

[AlaskaETC]

I wouldn't mind at all if it snowed 2-4" every other day this winter.

[Bob Chill]

This is not an exciting map:

 

 

 

Every week that goes by seems to be lower the chances of even a strong mod nino. Strong nino could be off the table. 09 was hitting the gas right now. We seem to be stalled at best. 

 

There's still time of course but conditions need to turn very favorable in the next 6 weeks and I'm not seeing much pointing to that. Then again, I kinda suck at predicting ENSO so my thoughts aren't worth all that much. 

 

We're definitely doing better than 06-07 in the pac overall. Looking at that years July makes me wonder how it even became a Nino. It was a late bloomer for sure. 

 

I'm personally not too worried about ENSO. It is what it is. There's no reason to think this winter will be a dud...yet...

[mitchnick]

This is not an exciting map:

 

julyssta.JPG

 

 

Every week that goes by seems to be lower the chances of even a strong mod nino. Strong nino could be off the table. 09 was hitting the gas right now. We seem to be stalled at best. 

 

There's still time of course but conditions need to turn very favorable in the next 6 weeks and I'm not seeing much pointing to that. Then again, I kinda suck at predicting ENSO so my thoughts aren't worth all that much. 

 

We're definitely doing better than 06-07 in the pac overall. Looking at that years July makes me wonder how it even became a Nino. It was a late bloomer for sure. 

 

I'm personally not too worried about ENSO. It is what it is. There's no reason to think this winter will be a dud...yet...

Bob, as I'm sure you and most know, the CFS2 looks horrid in its temp, precip, and u/l setup for the winter, but the ENSO maps don't look bad to me as it has the max warmth migrating westward to not far east of the dateline by the D-F period....late winter?

 

Last year at this time had nothing going for it in a general sense analog-wise and the CFS2 was plastered with average temps, so I'm with you wrt to just waiting. There are too many other factors, in addition to ENSO, that could go either way for us. OTOH, even with a winter that averages AN temp-wise, NINOs do increase our precip chances so an AN temp winter may not be a snow killer.

 

I remain optimistic because of the NINO and leave it at that I suppose.

 

I'd love to hear HM's thoughts though. <hint, hint>

[AlaskaETC]

Still some decent chances for a weak El Nino, which wouldn't be so bad for us. At worst, I have a feeling we won't do worse than last year in terms of snowfall.