Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I don't think it's ridiculous.  I think it's ridiculous that DCA would measure a top-10 coldest (and BWI would be pretty tough), but I think that outside of the heat islands it wouldn't be a huge stretch to get a really cold winter based on departures.  Records are made to be broken.

 

LMAO good luck with that!

[mattie g]

LMAO good luck with that!

 

I'm not saying it's going to happen - just that it's not out of the realm of possibility.  The heat islands make it incredibly hard to break official records on the negative side, but that doesn't mean the non-heat islands can't get to that level of cold.

[GaWx]

Even -4 is a serious #. It requires all 3 months to be a good bit below average to come close to that. If we get even a -1 in Dec it will require a frigid Jan/Feb. At least we'll know if the forecast stands a chance of verifying by mid Dec.

Personally, I see low chances of a seasonal of even -4. It requires everything to break right nowadays. I don't have the exact #'s in front of me but it looks like 02-03, 93-94, and 95-96 were around -4 for bwi. All 3 of those years had bn Decembers.

Bob,

It does take balls to predict that cold of a winter, a top ten type cold for many areas. However, if there really ends up being a solid -AO ( as may end up being suggested by Eurasian snowcover by the time we get to 10/31) a solid +PDO as already suggested by the over +1 September PDO, AND a weak El Niño, this would be an understandable winter to predict something like that based on the history of the coldest winters. I honestly don't feel he's out of line in this case like he has been at times.

[CAPE]

Bob,

It does take balls to predict that cold of a winter, a top ten type cold for many areas. However, if there really ends up being a solid -AO ( as may end up being suggested by Eurasian snowcover by the time we get to 10/31) a solid +PDO as already suggested by the over +1 September PDO, AND a weak El Niño, this would be an understandable winter to predict something like that based on the history of the coldest winters. I honestly don't feel he's out of line in this case like he has been at times.

"wolf" he cried, and repeat...

[GaWx]

"wolf" he cried, and repeat...

Yep, his past times of crying wolf could haunt him here even if we really are destined to have a quite cold winter.

[CAPE]

Bastardi has not had credibility for years. Why pollute the thread with posts about his continued propensity to predict the most extreme of outcomes. 

[GaWx]

Bastardi has not had credibility for years. Why pollute the thread with posts about his continued propensity to predict the most extreme of outcomes.

I don't see it being a problem that whovever in this thread decided to bring up JB's forecast. It adds to interesting discussion and most here know that he overhypes extremes of all kinds, especially cold/snow during winter. Geez, the SE thread has stuff from the Farmer's Almanac(s) and discussion of the wooly worms and I don't recall too much complaining.

It just so happens that he actually has a decent chance IMO of getting this very cold right due to the reasons I already gave (should all of those factors actually occur).

[CAPE]

Yep, his past times of crying wolf could haunt him here even if we really are destined to have a quite cold winter.

Odds, history, climo...pick one or something else in the pattern evolution- Just hard to see this winter being as persistently cold as last. I think its likely to feature some cold periods, maybe even MBN, but  the warmer periods will likely be more persistent than last winter. With a weak Nino there should be a few chances at timing a widespread Miller A snow event.

[GaWx]

Odds, history, climo...pick one or something else in the pattern evolution- Just hard to see this winter being as persistently cold as last. I think its likely to feature some cold periods, maybe even MBN, but  the warmer periods will likely be more persistent then last winter. With a weak Nino there should be a few chances at timing a widespread Miller A snow event.

I do think that his apparent forecast of above normal snowfall in a very large % of the country sounds like overhype and has very little chance to verify. However, I give the cold a decent chance if we get the weak Niño.

[CAPE]

I do think that his apparent forecast of above normal snowfall in a very large % of the country sounds like overhype and has very little chance to verify. However, I give the cold a decent chance if we get the weak Niño.

Not sure about extreme cold. I can see cold periods but also some prolonged milder ones. I think the thing we have a better shot at this winter with a weak Nino is a "big" snow event. If I had to go out on a limb I would predict normal to slightly below for DJFM for the SE and MA. If you recall 2009-2010 was just cold enough with the persistent -NAO and we had the perfect storm track here in the MA. Not saying we get that this winter, but maybe a mini version of it for a time.

[packbacker]

Yea, forecasting JB is pretty easy. lol

When I look back at some of the years that share similar characteristics most had an anomalous period of pretty cold stuff. Jan 04, Mar 05, Feb 69, Feb 80, Dec 76 to name a couple. Hitting solid neg 3 months in a row just doesn't happen enough to take JB seriously. He could be right of course but a betting man would need some serious odds to wager it.

Well he loves 77 as the analog for this winter and forecasting -4-6F is not as extreme as 77 was. So he is a actually conservative when compared to that insane winter.

[Bob Chill]

Bob,

It does take balls to predict that cold of a winter, a top ten type cold for many areas. However, if there really ends up being a solid -AO ( as may end up being suggested by Eurasian snowcover by the time we get to 10/31) a solid +PDO as already suggested by the over +1 September PDO, AND a weak El Niño, this would be an understandable winter to predict something like that based on the history of the coldest winters. I honestly don't feel he's out of line in this case like he has been at times.

Getting extreme cold goes beyond enso/teleconnections etc. 09-10 was record territory in the blocking dept but it really wasn't even that cold compared to other years.

Last year could have been one for the ages temp wise in the se/ma if it wasn't so progressive. The pv was pinned on our side all winter long but there was nothing to stop the retreat each time it visited. Then again, maybe the progressive pattern is what helped it be snowy so it's hard to complain about anything.

I'm not sure about your area but the 2 most recent quite cold + snowy years are 95-96 and 02-03. They're pretty rare. I'll start to bite if Dec delivers but remain skeptical until then

[GaWx]

Bob, 2009-10 at Atlanta (and many other parts of the SE) was a top 10 cold winter. Also, it was a big wintry precip. producer in the Atlanta area as well as some other areas in the SE.

[ORH_wxman]

Getting extreme cold goes beyond enso/teleconnections etc. 09-10 was record territory in the blocking dept but it really wasn't even that cold compared to other years.

Last year could have been one for the ages temp wise in the se/ma if it wasn't so progressive. The pv was pinned on our side all winter long but there was nothing to stop the retreat each time it visited. Then again, maybe the progressive pattern is what helped it be snowy so it's hard to complain about anything.

I'm not sure about your area but the 2 most recent quite cold + snowy years are 95-96 and 02-03. They're pretty rare. I'll start to bite if Dec delivers but remain skeptical until then

 

 

Last year had a bit of a SE ridge at times...we were getting a pseudo Nina pattern. Kind of a typical look with the PAC side we had in combination with the +NAO.

 

 

The cold was historic in the Great Lakes and parts of the upper plains...it was somewhat similar to '93-'94, though even more extreme there for the duration of cold. But that pattern of course isn't favorable for locking the heart of the cold near the east coast (esp further south)...so it wasn't as anomalous in the east. We'd really need a -NAO unless we got something like '60-'61.

[usedtobe]

If we have a -4 to -6 winter I'll jump off a bridge onto the ice covered potomac 

I'm too lazy to scroll and read who made such a cold forecast.....who's forecast?  I'm with Bob Chill,  I'd be real surprised. 

[Bob Chill]

Today's euro weeklies look similar to the general pattern we're in now for the foreseeable future. Nov is looking mild here.

Couple good things is that CA looks wet based on h5. Storm track looks to progress southward through the month. SoCal would like the run. Man they sure need some decent rain.

At the very end of the run it looks like split flow may develop with ridging north in nw Canada and eastern ak and trough below into Cal.

It would be nice to see storms rolling through the sw in late Nov. That kind of pattern has legs more often than no. I wish we could fast forward a month and see what's going on....

[usedtobe]

I do think that his apparent forecast of above normal snowfall in a very large % of the country sounds like overhype and has very little chance to verify. However, I give the cold a decent chance if we get the weak Niño.

The AO probably will probably average in the negative range and we probably will get a weak nino but that still doesn't mean we have to be that cold....colder than average but 4 or 5 degree anomaly for us has beenpreety hard to do lately.  Weak ninos historically have not beeen big snow producers at DCA. 

[GaWx]

The AO probably will probably average in the negative range and we probably will get a weak nino but that still doesn't mean we have to be that cold....colder than average but 4 or 5 degree anomaly for us has beenpreety hard to do lately.  Weak ninos historically have not beeen big snow producers at DCA. 

 

Wes,

 Weak Nino's with solid -NAO/-AO and +PDO (colder than any other ENSO with the same) have been the coldest group of winters when averaged for much of the E US (certainly in the SE US).. Snowfall is a different story that I'm not addressing..

[ORH_wxman]

Top 5 coldest at BWI airport (records to 1939)

1962-1963	28.3	28.7	27.7	28.2
1977-1978	35.6	29.2	27.3	30.7
1976-1977	32.6	22.9	36.5	30.7
2002-2003	34.3	28.3	30.2	30.9
1960-1961	28.4	27.6	37.0	31.0

 (last column is winter avg temp...the first 3 is Dec, Jan, Feb temps respectively)

[Bob Chill]

The AO probably will probably average in the negative range and we probably will get a weak nino but that still doesn't mean we have to be that cold....colder than average but 4 or 5 degree anomaly for us has beenpreety hard to do lately. Weak ninos historically have not beeen big snow producers at DCA.

Nice to see you post, Wes. It means we're getting close to getting a real idea of how things start.

I agree about weak nino's. History doesn't really paint a rosy picture in the snow dept. I'm struggling trying to find compelling evidence for cold + snow. If anything I would think cold has a better chance on the means but a let down in the snow dept.

I guess it depends on expectations too. If we get one nice storm, the typical splatter of minor events, and hit climo in most locations I'll be satisfied. If I can slap on the skates and hit the illegal pond in the woods without worrying about dying I'll be even happier. Lol

[Bob Chill]

Top 5 coldest at BWI airport (records to 1939)

1962-1963	28.3	28.7	27.7	28.2
1977-1978	35.6	29.2	27.3	30.7
1976-1977	32.6	22.9	36.5	30.7
2002-2003	34.3	28.3	30.2	30.9
1960-1961	28.4	27.6	37.0	31.0

(last column is winter avg temp...the first 3 is Dec, Jan, Feb temps respectively)

Where did you pull that data, ORH? Can you pull the top 5 since 1990? It will likely be awful tough to match the 60's and 70's. IMHO- the 90's and later are probably better for setting expectations for what a cold winter looks like.

[ORH_wxman]

Where did you pull that data, ORH? Can you pull the top 5 since 1990? It will likely be awful tough to match the 60's and 70's. IMHO- the 90's and later are probably better for setting expectations for what a cold winter looks like.

 

The climod site at cornell.

 

Top 5 coldest since 1990:

 

 

DCA:

2002-2003	37.2	31.1	33.6	34.0
1993-1994	38.1	28.8	36.3	34.4
1995-1996	35.6	32.8	37.2	35.2
2009-2010	37.9	35.3	34.2	35.8
2003-2004	39.2	30.5	38.1	35.9

BWI:

2002-2003	34.3	28.3	30.2	30.9
1993-1994	36.2	27.0	34.0	32.4
2009-2010	34.8	32.7	30.9	32.8
2003-2004	36.4	27.6	34.8	32.9
2013-2014	39.6	27.4	32.9	33.3

[mitchnick]

Top 5 coldest at BWI airport (records to 1939)

1962-1963	28.3	28.7	27.7	28.2
1977-1978	35.6	29.2	27.3	30.7
1976-1977	32.6	22.9	36.5	30.7
2002-2003	34.3	28.3	30.2	30.9
1960-1961	28.4	27.6	37.0	31.0

 (last column is winter avg temp...the first 3 is Dec, Jan, Feb temps respectively)

BWI will never beat that 1/77 average of 22.9

I nearly froze my ars off that month,,,,not a big snow month, but the ground was covered for most of it

but as the numbers show, FEB warmed after the first 7-10 days and ended up pretty snow less and ho-hum tempwise

[uncle W]

Top 5 coldest at BWI airport (records to 1939)

1962-1963	28.3	28.7	27.7	28.2
1977-1978	35.6	29.2	27.3	30.7
1976-1977	32.6	22.9	36.5	30.7
2002-2003	34.3	28.3	30.2	30.9
1960-1961	28.4	27.6	37.0	31.0

 (last column is winter avg temp...the first 3 is Dec, Jan, Feb temps respectively)

1962-63 was a cold winter across the country...average temps were in the 20's all three months in BWI...I'm old enough to remember that winter...I remember walking to school on Feb. 9th in below zero temperatures...The snot hanging from my nose was frozen when I got there...Yea I was a snot nose kid lol...December 1962 was snowy in the DCA area...not so much in the NYC area...December 1962 started out mild with a high of 68 in NYC...The cold came during the second week and except for a thaw in January it was cold until March 3rd...

[HighStakes]

BWI will never beat that 1/77 average of 22.9

I nearly froze my ars off that month,,,,not a big snow month, but the ground was covered for most of it

but as the numbers show, FEB warmed after the first 7-10 days and ended up pretty snow less and ho-hum tempwise

Pretty remarkable cold month. 22.9 sticks out the a sore thumb compared to the other monthly numbers shown above. Hard to believe there wasn't one notable snowfall with that much sustained cold for that long a period. Feb. 1979 was another incredibly cold month but as you know there was plenty of snow that month.

[Bob Chill]

Thanks ORH. 02-03 is the modern mark to beat.

Mitch, Jan 77 was crazy. My folks had a sailboat in the water in the west river that winter. We made a lot of trips that winter trying to keep the ice from jacking up the hull. 3 bubblers could barely keep the ice off.

I remember spending hours one day trying to make a hole in the ice. It was a foot thick and people were driving across the ice as a shortcut.With no snow there were iceboats screaming across in the nw winds on perfect smooth ice. Very fond memories. Feb 79 was the turning point in my affliction. Snow became very important in my life ever since. We are a strange group.

[mitchnick]

GFS wants to dump the EPO at the end of the forecast period fwiw

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

[mitchnick]

Thanks ORH. 02-03 is the modern mark to beat.

Mitch, Jan 77 was crazy. My folks had a sailboat in the water in the west river that winter. We made a lot of trips that winter trying to keep the ice from jacking up the hull. 3 bubblers could barely keep the ice off.

I remember spending hours one day trying to make a hole in the ice. It was a foot thick and people were driving across the ice as a shortcut.With no snow there were iceboats screaming across in the nw winds on perfect smooth ice. Very fond memories. Feb 79 was the turning point in my affliction. Snow became very important in my life ever since. We are a strange group.

I still recall the lack of snow in 1/77 being very disheartening

at least there was no internet so I never did realize how decent a snow winter it was in NE until talk of that winter surfaced in the last few weeks thanks to the -AO

I did take a ride out to the eastern fringes of Garrett County at the end of January.....talk about depressing   

[CAPE]

I still recall the lack of snow in 1/77 being very disheartening

at least there was no internet so I never did realize how decent a snow winter it was in NE until talk of that winter surfaced in the last few weeks thanks to the -AO

I did take a ride out to the eastern fringes of Garrett County at the end of January.....talk about depressing   

I lived in Westminster in those days.  I was a just youngin but my memory of that winter other than the brutal cold was a perpetual 3 inches of snow that never seemed to melt.

[uncle W]

does anyone know where I can get daily high/lows for DCA...I tried the utah climate center but can't get washington national...I want to put together the coldest 30 day period for DCA or even BWI if I get the stats...that 22.9 in January 1977 is probably a little colder if you use the coldest period which probably ended in early February...