mitchnick Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Cross-posting from New England... but for MA it's a BIT more promising (leans cooler/wetter): "October JAMSTEC run in: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Sfc temps a little dissapointing (a touch cooler, nationally, than the Sept run, but not in the Northeast... not awful, but a BIT warmer than normal DJF). Of course, several caveats to that. Precip on the edge of aboves, so at SLIGHTLY above normal temps, could still get above normal snowfall with above normal precip. Also, model sfc temps tend to be pretty sketchy (unfortunately, no upper level plots for the JAMSTEC). Plus, most models are on the warm side for Dec; we don't see that temporal resolution on the JAMSTEC, but if it's got the same idea, Jan-Feb are probably near normal. So, not terrible, but not great. Most models - even those that still aren't particularly great - improved from their Sept to Oct runs. The JAMSTEC just held serve." MAR-JUN period is wetter and cooler than DEC-FEB, which suggests MAR could be another AN snow month equally interesting is that it definitely carries the NINO into next year and is shifting the warmest area to west based I know we haven't even dealt with 14/15, but I'd say next year is looking tasty too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 MAR-JUN period is wetter and cooler than DEC-FEB, which suggests MAR could be another AN snow month equally interesting is that it definitely carries the NINO into next year and is shifting the warmest area to west based I know we haven't even dealt with 14/15, but I'd say next year is looking tasty too! If we can keep the nino going maybe. A lot of ninos tend to reverse into ninas, especially if they are moderate-strong. Some models have been alluding to this, while others show a constant trend or strengthening. \ That reminds me, why is everyone calling this nino a modoki? It seems more central or even east-based to me. Isn't east of 120 west considered east-based? Seems this model suggests an east based nino most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 If we can keep the nino going maybe. A lot of ninos tend to reverse into ninas, especially if they are moderate-strong. Some models have been alluding to this, while others show a constant trend or strengthening. \ That reminds me, why is everyone calling this nino a modoki? It seems more central or even east-based to me. Isn't east of 120 west considered east-based? Seems this model suggests an east based nino most of the winter. Shouldn't matter since it will be weak at best unless something magical happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 snow cover website is down all the hype over this year's snow cover is probably to blame Apparently there is an outage at the National Ice Center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Per packbacker in the SE subforum's winter disco thread, JB released his preliminary winter outlook and has 90% of the CONUS in above-average snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Per packbacker in the SE subforum's winter disco thread, JB released his preliminary winter outlook and has 90% of the CONUS in above-average snowfall Makes sense as long as the 10% below-average is the Balt/DC beltways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Per packbacker in the SE subforum's winter disco thread, JB released his preliminary winter outlook and has 90% of the CONUS in above-average snowfall I don't think I'm allowed to post the maps but the FL panhandle has 100% climo snow. 133% here and up and down the coast. 167% running the TN valley through the apps into VT. We're in the -4 to -6 on temps. He did note concerns about the possibility of more of a west coast trough / GOA idea that could screw things up. That's my personal biggest worry in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Per packbacker in the SE subforum's winter disco thread, JB released his preliminary winter outlook and has 90% of the CONUS in above-average snowfall JB's forecast really isn't that unreasonable. DC would be around 20", with BWI around 27". Temps around 4F below average. Solid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I don't think I'm allowed to post the maps but the FL panhandle has 100% climo snow. 133% here and up and down the coast. 167% running the TN valley through the apps into VT. We're in the -4 to -6 on temps. He did note concerns about the possibility of more of a west coast trough / GOA idea that could screw things up. That's my personal biggest worry in Dec. JB's forecast really isn't that unreasonable. DC would be around 20", with BWI around 27". Temps around 4F below average. Solid winter. Ok, yeah, that snowfall level for us isn't too crazy (although I think having 90% of the country above normal is looney), but -5F on temps for the winter is borderline historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I don't think I'm allowed to post the maps but the FL panhandle has 100% climo snow. 133% here and up and down the coast. 167% running the TN valley through the apps into VT. We're in the -4 to -6 on temps. He did note concerns about the possibility of more of a west coast trough / GOA idea that could screw things up. That's my personal biggest worry in Dec. That doesn't make any sense. I would think that would be more likely in La Nina conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Ok, yeah, that snowfall level for us isn't too crazy (although I think having 90% of the country above normal is looney), but -5F on temps for the winter is borderline historic. That would be a top 5 coldest winter for BWI, so this is kind of an outrageous forecast. -6 temps would be THE coldest winter ever for BWI lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 That would be a top 5 coldest winter for BWI, so this is kind of an outrageous forecast. -6 temps would be THE coldest winter ever for BWI lol Then maybe he thinks BWI would be -4, and it just happened to fall within the -4 to -6 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Then maybe he thinks BWI would be -4, and it just happened to fall within the -4 to -6 area. Yeah, BWI is right on the edge of 4-6 below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Arguing about -4 vs. -5 or -6 is all a bit foolish since any of those would suggest a pretty extreme winter temp-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Even -4 is a serious #. It requires all 3 months to be a good bit below average to come close to that. If we get even a -1 in Dec it will require a frigid Jan/Feb. At least we'll know if the forecast stands a chance of verifying by mid Dec. Personally, I see low chances of a seasonal of even -4. It requires everything to break right nowadays. I don't have the exact #'s in front of me but it looks like 02-03, 93-94, and 95-96 were around -4 for bwi. All 3 of those years had bn Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 -4 to -6F for the season? Ummmm.... I'll take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I have to say...a -6 winter with little snow, while disappointing, would be pretty awesome in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I have to say...a -6 winter with little snow, while disappointing, would be pretty awesome in my opinion. No. I have lived through years like that when I was growing up in central ohio in the 80s. Freezer level cold and little snow is just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I have to say...a -6 winter with little snow, while disappointing, would be pretty awesome in my opinion. It would be nice for a few days, then its just too much. 10 degrees and sunny for a week with no snow is a no-no in my books Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 If we have a -4 to -6 winter I'll jump off a bridge onto the ice covered potomac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Then maybe he thinks BWI would be -4, and it just happened to fall within the -4 to -6 area. Fine, lets assume he meant -4. But a -4 departure would have us tied for 10th. So he's basically saying that he thinks we're going to have at least a top 10 coldest winter. You don't think that's a little ridiculous? -4 for DJF is very hard to do- you would need constant, near historic cold for three months straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 If we have a -4 to -6 winter I'll jump off a bridge onto the ice covered potomac -4 to -6 regionwide winter is about average at DCA anyway, so no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I could easily see 1 month (or 30 day period) @ -4 or lower. I don't think this winter will be nearly as variable as last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I could easily see 1 month (or 30 day period) @ -4 or lower. I don't think this winter will be nearly as variable as last. Oh definitely. Last January and March were both more than -5F below normal at BWI. Of course if that happens again, JB will probably just say he "nailed the pattern" but "missed the duration" or some such thing. Also, AMO and global cooling is coming and vote Santorum 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Oh definitely. Last January and March were both more than -5F below normal at BWI. Of course if that happens again, JB will probably just say he "nailed the pattern" but "missed the duration" or some such thing. Also, AMO and global cooling is coming and vote Santorum 2016.Yea, forecasting JB is pretty easy. lolWhen I look back at some of the years that share similar characteristics most had an anomalous period of pretty cold stuff. Jan 04, Mar 05, Feb 69, Feb 80, Dec 76 to name a couple. Hitting solid neg 3 months in a row just doesn't happen enough to take JB seriously. He could be right of course but a betting man would need some serious odds to wager it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Fine, lets assume he meant -4. But a -4 departure would have us tied for 10th. So he's basically saying that he thinks we're going to have at least a top 10 coldest winter. You don't think that's a little ridiculous? -4 for DJF is very hard to do- you would need constant, near historic cold for three months straight. I don't think it's ridiculous. I think it's ridiculous that DCA would measure a top-10 coldest (and BWI would be pretty tough), but I think that outside of the heat islands it wouldn't be a huge stretch to get a really cold winter based on departures. Records are made to be broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Oh definitely. Last January and March were both more than -5F below normal at BWI. Of course if that happens again, JB will probably just say he "nailed the pattern" but "missed the duration" or some such thing. Also, AMO and global cooling is coming and vote Santorum 2016. This is such a good snapshot of what he always does. He also tends to say many things so that he is right about one of them.. then when the 1 in 10 things (which usually contain variations of even complete opposites of what he really said) he can say he was right. Anyways, getting tired from all the banter on this one... so tired I added my own! LOL! Sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Bastardi is predictable, and pimps Weatherbell every chance he gets. His global cooing shtick is tiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 this site was updated today, but it was stuck on 10/20 yesterday, so maybe the snow cover and sat site will be up within a day anyway, decent warming in 3.4 and 4 that "looks" to be spreading east vs. last map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 this site was updated today, but it was stuck on 10/20 yesterday, so maybe the snow cover and sat site will be up within a day anyway, decent warming in 3.4 and 4 that "looks" to be spreading east vs. last map Best map yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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