hosj III Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 DT's forecast coming momentarily. Claiming 5pm to people asking on his FB page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Confirmed. DT likes cold (not 2013-2014 cold) and snowy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 DT's forecast looks similar to most out there. Of course I like it but weak warm enso doesn't correlate well in our area to big snow and/or cold. The SCE/SAI is very promising so far this month but there are notable outliers in both having a -ao being negated or not having the expected ao response. My biggest concern (I've become a broken record) is that we don't get the +pna pattern on the means. Especially early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 DT's forecast looks similar to most out there. Of course I like it but weak warm enso doesn't correlate well in our area to big snow and/or cold. The SCE/SAI is very promising so far this month but there are notable outliers in both having a -ao being negated or not having the expected ao response. My biggest concern (I've become a broken record) is that we don't get the +pna pattern on the means. Especially early. Bob, Imo based on my own analyses of available data done over the last couple of days: If we get to near the 14 msk area for total (not just sub 60N) Eurasian net SCE increase for the entire month and especially if we actually get El Nino, we'll be looking golden for the chance at a solidly sub -1 AO for DJF (averaged). There are no notable outliers that were major fails in this grouping. These last 12 days of the month are still crucial despite the fantastic first 19 days. In addition, I think a +PDO (per Univ. of Washington) averaged over DJF is now looking extremely likely since 17 of 17 times when the Sept. PDO was +0.70+ DJF averaged a +PDO. So, regarding cold, weak Nino + solid -AO + +PDO would make it very difficult to not have a solidly cold winter in much of the E/SE US. Now, granted, I'm not talking specifically about snowfall here though I'd think that having a strong -AO and solid +PDO would, by themselves, be favorable, especially if a cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Confirmed. DT likes cold (not 2013-2014 cold) and snowy... Did he seriously make it a Powerpoint presentation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Signs still pointing to a big midwinter SSW/-AO event..question is how the Pacific/tropical forcings will behave during this interval. The BDC is cranking and we're already seeing early Wave-1 activity in the stratosphere under a favorable EPF. December looks "meh" until late month with the big SSW occurring around New Years +/- 10 days. I'd argue mid-late January may be our window this year if history has anything to say about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Signs still pointing to a big midwinter SSW/-AO event..question is how the Pacific/tropical forcings will behave during this interval. The BDC is cranking and we're already seeing early Wave-1 activity in the stratosphere under a favorable EPF. December looks "meh" until late month with the big SSW occurring around New Years +/- 10 days. I'd argue mid-late January may be our window this year if history has anything to say about it. Just curious, what makes you think the SSW will happen around that time frame, rendering a "meh" December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Just curious, what makes you think the SSW will happen around that time frame, rendering a "meh" December? History and the progression of the tropical forcing(s). I agree with most here that the only real concern is the Pacific..Strat looks great thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Did he seriously make it a Powerpoint presentation? So? Seems as though he put a lot of effort into something he's providing for free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 So? Seems as though he put a lot of effort into something he's providing for free That means a lot of people aren't going to be able to view it as it requires a powerpoint viewer to view the file and a lot of people don't know how to acquire one. You can see all the complaints on his FB page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 That means a lot of people aren't going to be able to view it as it requires a powerpoint viewer to view the file and a lot of people don't know how to acquire one. You can see all the complaints on his FB page. Lol. That's kinda funny. Office app for android has a PowerPoint viewer if anyone needs one. Idk about iPhone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 That means a lot of people aren't going to be able to view it as it requires a powerpoint viewer to view the file and a lot of people don't know how to acquire one. You can see all the complaints on his FB page. Anyone so inept that they cant figure out how to view a Powerpoint probably does not have the capacity to comprehend the content either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Anyone so inept that they cant figure out how to view a Powerpoint probably does not have the capacity to comprehend the content either. Lol-that's some funny S. I guess I'm old. I've been viewing and making PP slides for decades. Never even considered the possibility of it being a barrier to knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 That means a lot of people aren't going to be able to view it as it requires a powerpoint viewer to view the file and a lot of people don't know how to acquire one. You can see all the complaints on his FB page. Those people should not be allowed to use a computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I'll echo the others....if you can't figure out how to view a power point, then a winter outlook is not your number one issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 snow cover website is down all the hype over this year's snow cover is probably to blame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Well, I don't think there was any other way for him to do what he wanted to do. As with any PowerPoint presentation, it's a bit annoying scrolling through the different slides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I have ppt but with dial up on AOL it takes forever...almost got page 4 downloaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I have ppt but with dial up on AOL it takes forever...almost got page 4 downloaded Does this still exist???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I have ppt but with dial up on AOL it takes forever...almost got page 4 downloaded Haha, wow. Might wanna think about upgrading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Haha, wow. Might wanna think about upgrading. It's all I can afford after giving grandma rent money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Don't have office here, working on my 4th free powerpoint viewer. Been dodging unwanted garbage programs and toolbars right and left and one virus. Yeah I finally got one, hope this was worth the hour Anybody with the same issue this one actually works http://www.softpedia.com/get/Office-tools/Other-Office-Tools/PowerPoint-Viewer.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I have a funny feeling there will be plenty of "winter cancel" posts when the CWG forecast comes out. Something tells me they will break from the trend and call for a balmy winter. I am still evaluating things, but warm and snowless is a pretty unlikely outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Don't have office here, working on my 4th free powerpoint viewer. Been dodging unwanted garbage programs and toolbars right and left and one virus. Yeah I finally got one, hope this was worth the hour Anybody with the same issue this one actually works http://www.softpedia.com/get/Office-tools/Other-Office-Tools/PowerPoint-Viewer.shtml https://www.openoffice.org/ The "Impress" portion of OpenOffice is for PowerPoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 https://www.openoffice.org/ The "Impress" portion of OpenOffice is for PowerPoint. Fantastic, OpenOffice is the program i have used in place of Microsoft Office and couldn't remember the name of it because i wanted to install that on my new computer. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millwx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Cross-posting from New England... but for MA it's a BIT more promising (leans cooler/wetter): "October JAMSTEC run in: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Sfc temps a little dissapointing (a touch cooler, nationally, than the Sept run, but not in the Northeast... not awful, but a BIT warmer than normal DJF). Of course, several caveats to that. Precip on the edge of aboves, so at SLIGHTLY above normal temps, could still get above normal snowfall with above normal precip. Also, model sfc temps tend to be pretty sketchy (unfortunately, no upper level plots for the JAMSTEC). Plus, most models are on the warm side for Dec; we don't see that temporal resolution on the JAMSTEC, but if it's got the same idea, Jan-Feb are probably near normal. So, not terrible, but not great. Most models - even those that still aren't particularly great - improved from their Sept to Oct runs. The JAMSTEC just held serve." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I have ppt but with dial up on AOL it takes forever...almost got page 4 downloaded I'm annoyed that he didn't create overheads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Cross-posting from New England... but for MA it's a BIT more promising (leans cooler/wetter): "October JAMSTEC run in: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Sfc temps a little dissapointing (a touch cooler, nationally, than the Sept run, but not in the Northeast... not awful, but a BIT warmer than normal DJF). Of course, several caveats to that. Precip on the edge of aboves, so at SLIGHTLY above normal temps, could still get above normal snowfall with above normal precip. Also, model sfc temps tend to be pretty sketchy (unfortunately, no upper level plots for the JAMSTEC). Plus, most models are on the warm side for Dec; we don't see that temporal resolution on the JAMSTEC, but if it's got the same idea, Jan-Feb are probably near normal. So, not terrible, but not great. Most models - even those that still aren't particularly great - improved from their Sept to Oct runs. The JAMSTEC just held serve." The Mid-Atlantic looks normal to cooler, with just slightly AN precipitation. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I am still evaluating things, but warm and snowless is a pretty unlikely outlook. Agree. Taking bits and pieces from various years definitely points towards DC not having a tough time getting 10-15". I don't doubt the possibility of getting climo+ region wide but it wouldn't be playing the odds to make that call. IMO- we either need to put something on the board in Dec or be quickly moving into a more favorable pattern through the month to get there. Relying on the short lat jan/mid feb window to make up for lost time is tough for snow totals even if we are in a decent pattern. Maybe we're a March snow town again...lol Yesterday's euro weeklies showed some notable changes. The aleutian ridge signal remains strong through the first 10 days of Nov but things out west start to shuffle a bit mid month with lower heights working their way down the west coast and a subtle signal for ridging above in the GOA and pac NW. This would imply a possible southern storm track starting to set up. Long ways out but we'll see how it goes. Last night's euro ens run showed a similar look but starting earlier. Ens mean precip panels are showing a good dose of qpf in the central sierras and d10-15 shows precip moving southward all the way to San Diego so it has a similar look to the weeklies just starting earlier. This could be an early clue that a southern storm track underneath ridging to the N may set up in Nov. It's pretty common in Nino's. Would be nice to see IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 It's all I can afford after giving grandma rent money so she pays for the heat then.....mamma's boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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