StudentOfClimatology Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Just FWIW, the top ENSO/QBO analogs I can find are 1958-59, 1968-69, 1979-80, and 2003-04. Interesting that these all seem to occur around solar max, so no need to adjust for that factor.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Just FWIW, the top ENSO/QBO analogs I can find are 1958-59, 1968-69, 1979-80, and 2003-04. Interesting that these all seem to occur around solar max, so no need to adjust for that factor.. Call me a weenie, but I have a hard time accepting those analogs on face value given the anomalous -AO signal from the SAI, OPI, and stratosphere. I know a meh pacific can overrule those 2012-2013 style and that's really my main fear. A big ol' -PNA. I ran the plot for those winters. The -NAO is kinda nice but the -PNA is not a great look. It will be interesting to see if the +PDO matters at all in that respect. I don't really know the technicalities behind this as well as others on this forum, so I'll leave that to you all. I'm just glad the signals are definitly not pointing to a torch. ETA: Also, don't we want to see the main negative height anomaly closer to 50/50? Isn't this setup better for the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 another day, another explosion of snow cover! and its cousin, sea ice, is keeping right up with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Snowcover looks amazing and the forecast continues to impress. 18z GFS shows a large area of snowcover down to 45N in eastern Siberia by Halloween! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 sun has really calmed down too, but there looks to be a nasty sunspot cluster set to rotate toward us in a few days, or less http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Call me a weenie, but I have a hard time accepting those analogs on face value given the anomalous -AO signal from the SAI, OPI, and stratosphere. I know a meh pacific can overrule those 2012-2013 style and that's really my main fear. A big ol' -PNA. I ran the plot for those winters. The -NAO is kinda nice but the -PNA is not a great look. It will be interesting to see if the +PDO matters at all in that respect. I don't really know the technicalities behind this as well as others on this forum, so I'll leave that to you all. I'm just glad the signals are definitly not pointing to a torch. ETA: Also, don't we want to see the main negative height anomaly closer to 50/50? Isn't this setup better for the south? I weight the stratosphere very heavily..has worked very well for me. The analogs I use as more of a general guide..they're not gospel and all of the years I listed have problems. Solar was raging in 1958-59 as well as 1979-80, the -QBO/MQI was much farther along in 1968-69 vs now, ENSO/forcing was neutral-ish in 2003-04.. I still think we'll observe a major SSW in early January, w/ a deep -AO likely..am leaning towards January and March being the coldest months relative to average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Just FWIW, the top ENSO/QBO analogs I can find are 1958-59, 1968-69, 1979-80, and 2003-04. Interesting that these all seem to occur around solar max, so no need to adjust for that factor.. As of Oct 16th, Joe D'Aleo's current analogs are 1969, 1977, 1980, 1987, 2004, 2010. That's based on east QBO, weak Modoki El-Nino, N PAC warm pool, and low solar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Call me a weenie, but I have a hard time accepting those analogs on face value given the anomalous -AO signal from the SAI, OPI, and stratosphere. I know a meh pacific can overrule those 2012-2013 style and that's really my main fear. A big ol' -PNA. I ran the plot for those winters. The -NAO is kinda nice but the -PNA is not a great look. It will be interesting to see if the +PDO matters at all in that respect. I don't really know the technicalities behind this as well as others on this forum, so I'll leave that to you all. I'm just glad the signals are definitly not pointing to a torch. ETA: Also, don't we want to see the main negative height anomaly closer to 50/50? Isn't this setup better for the south? I have to agree with you on the analogs being a fairly poor match simply based on historic observation. Snow totals, temps, etc are all over the place for a fair portion of the US in the years listed. Based simply on El Niño would 1976-77 and 1977-78 be the only real matches you could use? That would be assuming we do actually get a full Niño that lasts through March at least. Just based on my own thought, I believe pretty firmly that we see a Western/Central US cold winter this year with January and February being pretty harsh as far south as central and east Texas. Just my thoughts. I think a lot of people will be really surprised again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I have to agree with you on the analogs being a fairly poor match simply based on historic observation. Snow totals, temps, etc are all over the place for a fair portion of the US in the years listed. Based simply on El Niño would 1976-77 and 1977-78 be the only real matches you could use? That would be assuming we do actually get a full Niño that lasts through March at least. Just based on my own thought, I believe pretty firmly that we see a Western/Central US cold winter this year with January and February being pretty harsh as far south as central and east Texas. Just my thoughts. I think a lot of people will be really surprised again this year. You firmly believe this based on your own thought...any rationale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 NE Pac hot tub has been reduced to cool and luke warm depending on where you go swimming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I like this outlook a lot! Curious of what people think of it! LONG but thought out! http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2014/10/19/winter-forecast-for-20142015/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 NE Pac hot tub has been reduced to cool and luke warm depending on where you go swimming. weekly numbers as of today: Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01OCT2014 21.7 1.1 25.4 0.5 27.1 0.3 29.2 0.5 08OCT2014 21.3 0.6 25.5 0.6 27.1 0.4 29.1 0.5 15OCT2014 21.5 0.7 25.5 0.5 27.2 0.5 29.4 0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I like this outlook a lot! Curious of what people think of it! LONG but thought out! http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2014/10/19/winter-forecast-for-20142015/ Seems that all outlooks are similar so far. I personally don't see it so cut and dried. At least this one brings up some obvious risks that could dramatically change things. I think the risk of an extended period of warmth or lack of a real stj or crappy storm track (at least in our area) is higher than what one may think when reading all the outlooks so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I like this outlook a lot! Curious of what people think of it! LONG but thought out! http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2014/10/19/winter-forecast-for-20142015/ For those who don't want to read the entire 78 pages of the .pdf and just want the forecast, glance from pg 68-78. From my experience reading Steve's forecast, they seem to be more than not snowy outlooks/individual storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I like this outlook a lot! Curious of what people think of it! LONG but thought out! http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2014/10/19/winter-forecast-for-20142015/ Just read through the whole thing. Very detailed and well-written. The one thing I wish he did was go into a bit more detail regarding the actual forecast. He states that there will be below average temps and above average precip, but does not say by how much. Also, I wish his map continued into DC/MD/VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Seems that all outlooks are similar so far. I personally don't see it so cut and dried. At least this one brings up some obvious risks that could dramatically change things. I think the risk of an extended period of warmth or lack of a real stj or crappy storm track (at least in our area) is higher than what one may think when reading all the outlooks so far this year. Great points Bob. The Pacific is not a stable player. Gives great excitement for a day, and then not as excited the next. His read on the NAO is good that the signal is not as strong as I would like. In general I am most worried about wasted cold air this year. I think all the current snow pack will help us go below normal Jan and Feb, but not too dramatic (in comparison to last year).. but as you mention, a crappy storm track can be bad news. In general, I am thinking above normal snow. I was more on board with super snowy until I saw the shifting signals (you guys make me doubt myself all the time.. which is good!)! There are some stronger signals, but all the variability has to make you think we have typical cold snaps with warm patterns too. I think we get at least one great storm this year and 3 moderate(2 - 4 for cities, 3 - 6 west, 6 - 8 mts).. then some slurpees and quick melter changeovers that at least pad stats a little, but you can't play in because they wash away. If we get 2 great storms (10"+), we would have a great winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Doing a seasonal snowfall forecast is so hard. I think temps and precip seasonal forecasts are much more straightforward. Hard to say where and if the temps and precip line up. Seems to me the various factors are leaning toward a below normal temperature regime for the winter. I think precip is a little more "equal chances", but I'd probably hedge a touch wetter than normal given the warm neutral/Nino-ish behavior of the atmosphere. With that combination, I feel good right now that we're not getting a 2011-12 style shutout, but I think anything above 50% of normal snow is probably reasonable right now as a forecast. Just my 2c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Doing a seasonal snowfall forecast is so hard. I think temps and precip seasonal forecasts are much more straightforward. Hard to say where and if the temps and precip line up. Seems to me the various factors are leaning toward a below normal temperature regime for the winter. I think precip is a little more "equal chances", but I'd probably hedge a touch wetter than normal given the warm neutral/Nino-ish behavior of the atmosphere. With that combination, I feel good right now that we're not getting a 2011-12 style shutout, but I think anything above 50% of normal snow is probably reasonable right now as a forecast. Just my 2c. Seasonal snowfall is really tough. Especially because we do feast or famine way more often than "normal" snow. I'm thinking the same as you. It appears we're not headed for a complete bust. But even in extended "good" patterns we can still fail at snow. 93-94 is the closest recent analog to last year. It snowed in each of DJFM in 93-94 (even Ts in Nov/Apr) but the total was just 13" at DCA. IAD didn't hit climo either (19.4"). But then last year of course hit a home run. So, if we get another setup like 93-94 and 13-14 which way will it go? I know our subforum would be all "13-14 redux!" but that's pretty precarious. SAI is getting a ton of attention but there are mixed signals there as well. 06-07 was a complete bag of wtf and 68-69 got the blocking but it got ruined by a sick -PNA/goa vortex too far east so the storm track ended up nw of us. Looking back at 03-04 and 04-05 strictly from a snow total make those years look kinda crappy but there were missed opportunities and good patterns in both years. I'd be fine with this winter being quite similar to those and letting the chips fall. One thing I really don't want to see is a Dec bust. It's probably a fair wag to say Feb looks best for getting some chances. Jan is a finicky month regardless. Dec shutouts bug the crap out of me. Shutouts with the balance of the month being AN temp wise are even worse. I have an uncomfortable feeling that Dec isn't going to break our way. Seems like coin flip odds at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I have a funny feeling there will be plenty of "winter cancel" posts when the CWG forecast comes out. Something tells me they will break from the trend and call for a balmy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 DT was supposed to release his winter forecast this morning, but haven't seen it yet. Based on what I've seen of his comments, I'd wager he's going cold/snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 You firmly believe this based on your own thought...any rationale? Wow. Typed this once and it disappeared so this won't be as well thought out as the first one but just the comparisons of the late 70s seasons are heavily weighted in my mind. Assuming we get a Niño, which is really pretty sketchy at this point, it will be a late bloomer of sorts. Similar to 1976-77 and 1977-78. I don't guess I have anything that would be extremely logical to an expert but I didn't last year either and it worked out pretty well for me. I know I listed some really really hard winters to beat for a lot of the north central US but I think we can go back to back frigid for the first time in 30+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Seasonal snowfall is really tough. Especially because we do feast or famine way more often than "normal" snow. I'm thinking the same as you. It appears we're not headed for a complete bust. But even in extended "good" patterns we can still fail at snow. 93-94 is the closest recent analog to last year. It snowed in each of DJFM in 93-94 (even Ts in Nov/Apr) but the total was just 13" at DCA. IAD didn't hit climo either (19.4"). But then last year of course hit a home run. So, if we get another setup like 93-94 and 13-14 which way will it go? I know our subforum would be all "13-14 redux!" but that's pretty precarious. SAI is getting a ton of attention but there are mixed signals there as well. 06-07 was a complete bag of wtf and 68-69 got the blocking but it got ruined by a sick -PNA/goa vortex too far east so the storm track ended up nw of us. Looking back at 03-04 and 04-05 strictly from a snow total make those years look kinda crappy but there were missed opportunities and good patterns in both years. I'd be fine with this winter being quite similar to those and letting the chips fall. One thing I really don't want to see is a Dec bust. It's probably a fair wag to say Feb looks best for getting some chances. Jan is a finicky month regardless. Dec shutouts bug the crap out of me. Shutouts with the balance of the month being AN temp wise are even worse. I have an uncomfortable feeling that Dec isn't going to break our way. Seems like coin flip odds at best. just a gut, but based on what I've seen in the last year or 2, I think the temp regime has changed a bit in our favor between the snow cover last year and this, sea ice this year, last winter's "luck", many BN months temp-wise around here since the start of the year, things feel different to me whether all this makes a diff with snowfall, I think it will but that doesn't guarantee another winter like last as I said in an earlier post in this thread, precip is all I care about thru the end of NOV; if we can come in at or above normal (preferably above), I think the temps will cooperate for us this year for "wintry" events, though details will obviously be determined for each event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 DT was supposed to release his winter forecast this morning, but haven't seen it yet. Based on what I've seen of his comments, I'd wager he's going cold/snowy. He's usually a good 24-48 hours after the initial time he says...case in point, it was supposed to be out yesterday but was pushed due to the big nor'easter. Doesn't matter one way or another; it's just an observation. But yeah, it sounds like he's going to come down on the cold side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I have a funny feeling there will be plenty of "winter cancel" posts when the CWG forecast comes out. Something tells me they will break from the trend and call for a balmy winter. CWG will probably call average temps, average precip and slightly below average snowfall. Which is actually the best call right now given climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 CWG will probably call average temps, average precip and slightly below average snowfall. Which is actually the best call right now given climo. Wow, you are actually betting on climo? I'm shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Wow, you are actually betting on climo? I'm shocked. Not scientific at all, but last winter threw a curveball that very few can honestly say they anticipated. This winter likely will too. As great as the wicked OPI/SAI are, a bad pacific is a definite possibility this winter. The nino probably won't be much help in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Not scientific at all, but last winter threw a curveball that very few can honestly say they anticipated. This winter likely will too. As great as the wicked OPI/SAI are, a bad pacific is a definite possibility this winter. The nino probably won't be much help in that department. I see no reason why we can't score two above average winters in a row. I know it is rare and all, but it isn't the most unlikeliest thing to occur. The pacific can definitely screw things up, and I am too nervous about it. If that part of the calculation is right, then all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I see no reason why we can't score two above average winters in a row. I know it is rare and all, but it isn't the most unlikeliest thing to occur. The pacific can definitely screw things up, and I am too nervous about it. If that part of the calculation is right, then all bets are off. A pattern something like this is what I'm worried about. The +PDO would definitly argue against it, but that's more a product of the pattern than a driver. On the + side, I'm thinking we get several good periods of -AO/-NAO. Given what we've been seeing in Siberia, I'd almost call that in the bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 A pattern something like this is what I'm worried about. The +PDO would definitly argue against it, but that's more a product of the pattern than a driver. On the + side, I'm thinking we get several good periods of -AO/-NAO. Given what we've been seeing in Siberia, I'd almost call that in the bag. Yeah, no bueno to that, CFS is still showing something similar as well. The SAI is definitely looking promising...so does the October Index. I don't want to jinx anything though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Yeah, no bueno to that, CFS is still showing something similar as well. The SAI is definitely looking promising...so does the October Index. I don't want to jinx anything though.. The SAI and OPI are more than promising.... Naw, the CFS isn't even showing this. Just something ridiculous. It now has a super nino developing in Spring. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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