Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[Bob Chill]

And I am still having trouble reverse engineering it to generate the logic and reasoning...

 

At least some clues are emerging. It's not unrealistic to draw some conclusions that the odds of having a +pdo at least to start winter and a period or 2 of good blocking during DJF seems to be increasing. Looks like a pretty high chance of having a  period winter during winter. lol

 

A wildcard (that has me concerned a little) is the placement of the goa trough. If the pac is going to behave like a nino, we can expect that feature at times. Will it average far enough west for ridging along the west coast? NOAA seems to think it will. haha. Or will it end up too far east and screw things up? It's one thing that can pull the rug temp wise during a -ao period. It would be a shame to waste some or all of Dec if we end up with an anomalous -ao. 

 

My wag is we have a decent winter period along with opportunity in Jan-Feb. Simply playing odds based on all early clues so that's hardly a groundbreaking guess. December seems to be much trickier imo. 

[BTRWx]

Check out this seasonal forecast; not even positive on which model this is. Lead 1 starts at the NDJ time frame. But it sure shows one heck of a -NAO block. I've checked out the past forecasts and it seems to have been somewhat inaccurate so take it with a grain of salt. It seemed to have gotten the AO state correct for 2011-2012 but totally busted on the east coast temps.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201409/carealtime.html

 

To change the date to check out previous months/years, just change the "201409" in the URL.

Nice find! It's funny how the display output seems suspiciously similar to the JMA.

[mitchnick]

if you look to the right, near the top of this page and choose 2014/October, it gives you about all the ENSO models you can want and their predictions through JJA of next year

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/

 

it is interesting to note how many of the models keep the NINO going well into next year with a strong suggestion, by at least some, that next year would be a NINO too

I think that will matter because of the lag involved with ENSO and the strength of the current "NINO"

iow, more than usual, I think we have a decent mid-JAN through mid-MAR, and will be neither bummed nor surprised if DEC does not work out well for us; that can change, of course, if we get some help from something other than ENSO, but we ain't getting a 12/02 or 12/09 with the current "NINO"

[BTRWx]

Looks like NOAA googled el nino climo and added some finishing touches. 

Not to be taking sides, but has NOAA ever given such a close fit to an ENSO winter in a previous winter outlook?

[BTRWx]

Not to be taking sides, but has NOAA ever given such a close fit to an ENSO winter in a previous winter outlook?

They have us wetter than 2009 fwiw.  http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20091015_winteroutlook.html

I went through each of the last graphical winter outlooks since they started issuing them in 2001 and the one issued today appears to be wettest for the Mid-Atlantic.

[mitchnick]

if you look to the right, near the top of this page and choose 2014/October, it gives you about all the ENSO models you can want and their predictions through JJA of next year

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/

 

it is interesting to note how many of the models keep the NINO going well into next year with a strong suggestion, by at least some, that next year would be a NINO too

I think that will matter because of the lag involved with ENSO and the strength of the current "NINO"

iow, more than usual, I think we have a decent mid-JAN through mid-MAR, and will be neither bummed nor surprised if DEC does not work out well for us; that can change, of course, if we get some help from something other than ENSO, but we ain't getting a 12/02 or 12/09 with the current "NINO"

I just changed the link, first one didn't work

try it now

[Deck Pic]

At least some clues are emerging. It's not unrealistic to draw some conclusions that the odds of having a +pdo at least to start winter and a period or 2 of good blocking during DJF seems to be increasing. Looks like a pretty high chance of having a  period winter during winter. lol

 

A wildcard (that has me concerned a little) is the placement of the goa trough. If the pac is going to behave like a nino, we can expect that feature at times. Will it average far enough west for ridging along the west coast? NOAA seems to think it will. haha. Or will it end up too far east and screw things up? It's one thing that can pull the rug temp wise during a -ao period. It would be a shame to waste some or all of Dec if we end up with an anomalous -ao. 

 

My wag is we have a decent winter period along with opportunity in Jan-Feb. Simply playing odds based on all early clues so that's hardly a groundbreaking guess. December seems to be much trickier imo. 

 

November tells us a lot about December, so it is kind of too bad everyone rushes out with these outlooks...one marked difference between cold/warm decembers in the current enso state is the cold ones had a big cold anomaly in November in dixie while the torch ones had a big cold anomaly in November in the rockies....that is something I will be looking for...where the cold sets up...

[Bob Chill]

November tells us a lot about December, so it is kind of too bad everyone rushes out with these outlooks...one marked difference between cold/warm decembers in the current enso state is the cold ones had a big cold anomaly in November in dixie while the torch ones had a big cold anomaly in November in the rockies....that is something I will be looking for...where the cold sets up...

Very true. It's like holdem. Oct is the flop, Nov is the turn and thanksgiving is the river.

Nice ob on the nov cold anom placement. I'm interested. The start to the month isn't looking very exciting. Weeklies keep lowest heights out west so it implies a rather boring start to the month temp wise. Hopefully we start seeing an amplified look again in 2 weeks or so.

If I had to guess right now, cold anoms will be out west to start Nov. We'll see.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I've been concerned about December for awhile, as I noted in my winter outlook..though I think it has potential to look 2002-ish under some circumstances. Concerns stem from the fact that the lower frequency, antecedent tropical forcing has been E-PAC based lately with the weakened Walker Cell (very mid-1990s like). However, we're now seeing some legit dateline warming, and I expect to see OLR reflect that by mid or late November.

Using the stratosphere and tropics as guides, I believe the following:

- Pattern change in mid-November back to an Aleutian low/western ridge as W-PAC subsidence abates, though a +NAO looks likely

- December dominated by GOA trough...the NAO will probably determine our fate..warmer than average west of the Mississippi River?

- Like the idea of a big SSW in early January. Am thinking January will be the big -AO month and the coldest month nationally, relative to average (except maybe March?).

[WinterWxLuvr]

Never seen them this thick

[T. August]

Never seen them this thick

Nice job making a pile of acorns.

[snowfan]

The acorns are out of control this year and they're huge!! Clearly, squirrels will be stocking up for an epic winter. Last winter will seem like a flurry 

[Minnesota Meso]

I'm not going to rely too much on analogs this winter...the problem with your analogs is the such different results...what is the idea?  to average them?...even if you weight 79-80 higher, factoring in the others washes it out a bit...you kind of have to commit under your approach...and there is high risk-reward...as far as your actual analogs, I think they all have some merit and some drawbacks...

 

Thanks for your comments.  Last night all I pulled was a composite of all those years plus 79-80.  Tonight I pulled up 52-53 and it was rather warm.  Even though 52-53 had the same weak Nino signals that I expect this year, the difference lies in the previous year. 51-52 featured a moderate Nino transitioning into a warm neutral stance during the summer before it went to a weak Nino for winter 52-53.  The atmosphere quite frankly didn't react to the cooling enso during the summer so when winter 52-53 came around the results were more like a moderate Nino.  Therefore unless I can find another reason to leave it in, I'm very strongly leaning to throwing 52-53 out.  I do have tomorrow off plus 3 days next week, during that time I will try and tighten things up.  Once again thank you.  BTW I am using the climo period of 1981-2010, not the long term.

[Bob Chill]

Ensembles and the weeklies all show the npac pattern flipping and holding for an extended period. Aleutian ridge, GOA trough, -pna, and +AO/NAO leading into the close of the month and the weeklies hold the look through mid Nov. Weeklies did a great job picking up the Aleutian low well in advance. I see no reason to doubt what guidance is showing right now.

We won't know if this is an omen or not for a while so it's probably not worth worrying much about. The west 2/3rds of Canada are pretty warm on the means during the first half of Nov so our typical source region for cold nov temps may be closed for business. Nov could continue the overall AOA temp regime we've been in since early Sept.

I suppose the glass half full analysis would be that it's way too early to worry and if we are going to have a persistent hostile pattern it's best to have it happen in Nov and not Dec. If it continues into Dec then winter would be a slow start in these parts.

[mitchnick]

Ensembles and the weeklies all show the npac pattern flipping and holding for an extended period. Aleutian ridge, GOA trough, -pna, and +AO/NAO leading into the close of the month and the weeklies hold the look through mid Nov. Weeklies did a great job picking up the Aleutian low well in advance. I see no reason to doubt what guidance is showing right now.

We won't know if this is an omen or not for a while so it's probably not worth worrying much about. The west 2/3rds of Canada are pretty warm on the means during the first half of Nov so our typical source region for cold nov temps may be closed for business. Nov could continue the overall AOA temp regime we've been in since early Sept.

I suppose the glass half full analysis would be that it's way too early to worry and if we are going to have a persistent hostile pattern it's best to have it happen in Nov and not Dec. If it continues into Dec then winter would be a slow start in these parts.

11/77, 11/78 and 11/09 were all AN in the temp dept. (78/79 winter did not have a NINO, but I through it in to tip the scale)

11/86 and 11/02 were both below

go figure...

[Deck Pic]

11/77, 11/78 and 11/09 were all AN in the temp dept. (78/79 winter did not have a NINO, but I through it in to tip the scale)

11/86 and 11/02 were both below

go figure...

 

The ground truth matters a ton obviously, but where we live sometimes it is a matter of inches so to speak...2009 was a CONUS torch in November, but it still had cold departures down in Dixie - signs of the nino - which portended a decent December...

[hosj III]

Ensembles and the weeklies all show the npac pattern flipping and holding for an extended period. Aleutian ridge, GOA trough, -pna, and +AO/NAO leading into the close of the month and the weeklies hold the look through mid Nov. Weeklies did a great job picking up the Aleutian low well in advance. I see no reason to doubt what guidance is showing right now.

We won't know if this is an omen or not for a while so it's probably not worth worrying much about. The west 2/3rds of Canada are pretty warm on the means during the first half of Nov so our typical source region for cold nov temps may be closed for business. Nov could continue the overall AOA temp regime we've been in since early Sept.

I suppose the glass half full analysis would be that it's way too early to worry and if we are going to have a persistent hostile pattern it's best to have it happen in Nov and not Dec. If it continues into Dec then winter would be a slow start in these parts.

Doesn't a high SAI not typically impact the atmosphere much until December?

[Bob Chill]

11/77, 11/78 and 11/09 were all AN in the temp dept. (78/79 winter did not have a NINO, but I through it in to tip the scale)

11/86 and 11/02 were both below

go figure...

 

I'm not really worried about temps. Just don't like the h5 look. Even with a -ao, there are things that can cancel it. A -pna with neutral or + NAO is one of the ways. I'm probably just being paranoid but if we see a similar height pattern to start Dec then nobody here will be happy until it breaks. North of us would be fine but not down here. 

 

The anomaly placement on the weeklies in Nov do have some commonalities to 2009 so there's that. But using 09 as an analog is a bad idea obviously. I'm only focused on Dec for the next 6 weeks. I wasn't trying to imply in my post that I though winter is in jeopardy. Just considering possibilities as to how we start off met winter. And at this lead it's nothing more than tossing out ideas and possibilities. Everything is still on the table. 

 

 

 

Doesn't a high SAI not typically impact the atmosphere much until December?

 

There are high SAI years that sucked here. We need more than just a -ao response. 06 was a high SAI year and it behaved the exact opposite. 2012 was a high SAI year that behaved as expected at high latitudes but Dec was completely overwhelmed by a terrible pac pattern. This is how you ruin a perfectly good -ao and the ridge trough placement in the east pac is basically what the weeklies are showing during mid Nov. I'm not saying that I think this is what we'll see in Dec because that is totally up in the air for a while. 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

The ground truth matters a ton obviously, but where we live sometimes it is a matter of inches so to speak...2009 was a CONUS torch in November, but it still had cold departures down in Dixie - signs of the nino - which portended a decent December...

 

The end of the weeklies do show and area of lower heights in the deep south and below normal 850's while everything north of there is pretty warm. Lots of weekly runs to go before things become more clear. We'll see how it goes over the next few weeks. 

[WxUSAF]

Good points as usual, Bob.  Wavelengths are getting longer now of course, so patterns should be more durable, but we're still at a point in  the year where we shouldn't expect a pattern to lock in for the next ~2 months.  That Aleutian ridge look is setting up over the next few days and looks like it will stick around for awhile, but I'd be surprised if it's still around in a month.  Just hard to get a persistent pattern in mid-Fall.    

[GaWx]

Down in Atlanta, it was warm in both Oct. and Nov. during a niño only once: 2004-5. That winter turned out to be mild due largely to a +NAO IMO. None of the other 39 had both warm. Oct. 14 has a good chance to end up warm. The other ones that had a warm Nov.: 1896, 1899, 1902, 1913, 1958, 1977, 1986, 1987, 1994. The Oct .'s preceding these nine warm Nov.'s were cool 3 times and near normal 6 times. These DJF's turned out to be cold 2 times (1899-00, 1977-8), ~normal 6 times, and mild once (1994-5).

If I had my choice, I'd hope Nov. weren't warm in ATL since Oct. is aiming for warm. Also, based on an initial look, a strongly -AO Nov. has had a higher correlation to a strongly -AO DJF than does a strongly -AO in Oct. So, I definitely hope we get a strong -AO in Nov. though Nino's seem to offer a better than non-Niño chance to flip from +AO Nov to solid -AO DJF.

[Bob Chill]

Good points as usual, Bob.  Wavelengths are getting longer now of course, so patterns should be more durable, but we're still at a point in  the year where we shouldn't expect a pattern to lock in for the next ~2 months.  That Aleutian ridge look is setting up over the next few days and looks like it will stick around for awhile, but I'd be surprised if it's still around in a month.  Just hard to get a persistent pattern in mid-Fall.    

 

Agreed. I'd be surprised if it did as well. Plus, weeklies are really smooth. Sensible wx doesn't work that way. I suppose my concern is that persistent patterns during DJ do have a habit of reestablishing themselves a few times before things take on a new look for good. November is not a good month to make assumptions like that as you stated. 

[mitchnick]

Agreed. I'd be surprised if it did as well. Plus, weeklies are really smooth. Sensible wx doesn't work that way. I suppose my concern is that persistent patterns during DJ do have a habit of reestablishing themselves a few times before things take on a new look for good. November is not a good month to make assumptions like that as you stated. 

the only thing that matters much in my mind wrt sensible weather in the fall leading to winter is precip

if we get into a decently wet pattern, it seems to always work out for us in the winter with 02/03, 09/10, and last year coming to mind

yeah, it's based on my "on the fly" memory, but I doubt you'll find too many decent winters following dry autumns or vica versa, with 97/98 being the exception thanks to the super NINO

[Bob Chill]

Larry, I disagree to an extent that we want the -ao to establish itself during Nov. I've looked as individual seasons at length in the past and a few things stand out. Anomalous -ao periods generally run 45-60 days. Mixed results of outright flips or reestablishing after that. The one caveat to an anomalous -AO period beginning in Nov is that it runs the risk of running out of gas during prime winter months. 

 

I dug these up from analysis I did a few years back:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[uncle W]

Larry, I disagree to an extent that we want the -ao to establish itself during Nov. I've looked as individual seasons at length in the past and a few things stand out. Anomalous -ao periods generally run 45-60 days. Mixed results of outright flips or reestablishing after that. The one caveat to an anomalous -AO period beginning in Nov is that it runs the risk of running out of gas during prime winter months. 

 

I dug these up from analysis I did a few years back:

 

AO Graph 76-77-FR.jpg

 

 

AO Graph 00-01-FR.jpg

 

 

AO Graph 02-03-FR.jpg

 

 

AO Graph 09-10 - FR.jpg

 

 

AO Graph 10-11-FR.jpg

2009 had a very low AO in October that let up in November before dipping again in December...I hope that happens again...Todays ao/nao is still quite negative...

[PrinceFrederickWx]

If BWI doesn't get any snow this October or November, it will be the longest consecutive period (9 years) with no accumulating early season snow (i.e. Oct and Nov.). Of course, the previous record was 8 years, from 1997-2004. So either we have a big mean reversion coming (like March 2014) or climate change has taken it away forever. I'll go with the former. :-)

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Noreastericane, I thought BWI got some minor accumulation from the October 29 2011 snowtober event..no?

 

No, just a Trace.

[Deck Pic]

If BWI doesn't get any snow this October or November, it will be the longest consecutive period (9 years) with no accumulating early season snow (i.e. Oct and Nov.). Of course, the previous record was 8 years, from 1997-2004. So either we have a big mean reversion coming (like March 2014) or climate change has taken it away forever. I'll go with the former. :-)

 

I just ran my stats for the last 10 winters, and though skewed by a couple big storms, it pretty much tells the picture...anything before January 16th is a virtual bonus...if you take out 12/19/09, only about 13% falls before 1/15....not sure why 1/1-1/15 has sucked so bad..hopefully that will change...but it is kind of like extended December...I've only had 6 measurable snow events during that time frame in the last 10 winters and the biggest was 2.5"

 

IMBY

 

Oct-Nov <1%

Dec 1-15 - 7%

Dec 16-31 - 11%

Jan 1-15 - 3%

Jan 16-31 - 20%

Feb 1-15 - 34%

Feb 16-28 - 10%

March 1-15 - 8%

March 16-31 -7%

April - <1%

[aldie 22]

I just ran my stats for the last 10 winters, and though skewed by a couple big storms, it pretty much tells the picture...anything before January 16th is a virtual bonus...if you take out 12/19/09, only about 13% falls before 1/15....not sure why 1/1-1/15 has sucked so bad..hopefully that will change...but it is kind of like extended December...

 

IMBY

 

Oct-Nov <1%

Dec 1-15 - 7%

Dec 16-31 - 11%

Jan 1-15 - 3%

Jan 16-31 - 20%

Feb 1-15 - 34%

Feb 16-28 - 10%

March 1-15 - 8%

March 16-31 -7%

April - <1%[/size]

I'd say it's time for a snowy New Year's Eve

[Deck Pic]

I'd say it's time for a snowy New Year's Eve

 

 

I haven't had a 3" storm between 1/1 and 1/15 since 2003..what a crappy 2 weeks that is..