midatlanticweather Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 What are the best indexes/things to look at for a comprehensive winter forecast? My thoughts: QBO, SAI, Enso, PDO, AO, SST Climate models: CFS (could be crap), JMA(could be crap), Euro (what is the difference in the 2? Eurosip vs. Euro long winter model) Correlated years - this can be somewhat subjective based on what item you are looking at? What else do you guys look at? I want to create a running index on the above and use it as a barometer. I would look at what I could weekly and see if it works out. As we get closer then there are short term indicator scales that I also what to keep. I think we get these indicators in posts by folks here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 FWIW, wooly worms appear to have much more red on them this year. Almost all black last year. I found a few totally orange ones as well and then a few almost black. I think it is too variable. I enjoy these indicators, but it is all for fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Things that make you smile.... Getting good in all the right places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Nice...that does look improved in the Nino regions. PDO looks very nice, could easily envision it evolving into a truly classic +PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 What are the best indexes/things to look at for a comprehensive winter forecast? My thoughts: QBO, SAI, Enso, PDO, AO, SST Climate models: CFS (could be crap), JMA(could be crap), Euro (what is the difference in the 2? Eurosip vs. Euro long winter model) Correlated years - this can be somewhat subjective based on what item you are looking at? What else do you guys look at? I want to create a running index on the above and use it as a barometer. I would look at what I could weekly and see if it works out. As we get closer then there are short term indicator scales that I also what to keep. I think we get these indicators in posts by folks here. Climate models cause more panic than good IMO. Nothing is particularly reliable outside of 30 days and even then that's a stretch. I suppose watching month over month trends on climate models can be useful. I personally don't put a lot of stock in them. They swing and miss too often. Analogs based on the usual suspects (PDO, ENSO, QBO, (i don't put as much stock in this as others), SAI and overall SSTA configs are a good tool for setting expectations temp wise but are precarious for snow. Snowfall is too volatile and similar overall LW patterns produce different results each time. I like analogs to gauge potential though. Previous years can sometimes "hang over" as well. That always has to be considered. I don't think this year is going to hang over though. Last year was an unusual one that hasn't happened in similar fashion since 93-94. I think there are too many variables to have an encompassing "barometer". Taking important pieces from different years in the past and drawing your own conclusions is the only way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Nice...that does look improved in the Nino regions. PDO looks very nice, could easily envision it evolving into a truly classic +PDO. I really like seeing the large anomalies build in the PDO region because it can buffer a hostile pattern as long as it's temporary. But it's still early. A month or so from now is a different story though. If this look holds we can start to look away from years like 04-05 and 06-07. The npac could end up looking 03-04ish if the GOA trough does a good bit of damage over the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 LOL, has two of my three on it. personally, I usually start with the winters of 60/61, 63/64, 66/67, 96/96, 02/03, and 09/10 and try to find reasons why the coming winter won't be like one of those years or a combo try as I might, if I can't convince myself to rule them out, I just run with the mean for those years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Things that make you smile.... Getting good in all the right places All the right junk in all the right places...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 equal chances for temps http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016_winteroutlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Outlook_map_Precip_214F.jpg equal chances for temps http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016_winteroutlook.html Wouldn't it suck if we got some good triple phasers this year that only bring rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Climate models cause more panic than good IMO. Nothing is particularly reliable outside of 30 days and even then that's a stretch. I suppose watching month over month trends on climate models can be useful. I personally don't put a lot of stock in them. They swing and miss too often. Analogs based on the usual suspects (PDO, ENSO, QBO, (i don't put as much stock in this as others), SAI and overall SSTA configs are a good tool for setting expectations temp wise but are precarious for snow. Snowfall is too volatile and similar overall LW patterns produce different results each time. I like analogs to gauge potential though. Previous years can sometimes "hang over" as well. That always has to be considered. I don't think this year is going to hang over though. Last year was an unusual one that hasn't happened in similar fashion since 93-94. I think there are too many variables to have an encompassing "barometer". Taking important pieces from different years in the past and drawing your own conclusions is the only way to go. Thank you Bob - "Barometer" was the wrong word as it is a true measure. Pretty much on the same page. Agreed on the snow being volatile. Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Looks like NOAA googled el nino climo and added some finishing touches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Outlook_map_Precip_214F.jpg equal chances for temps http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016_winteroutlook.html seems to concur with the Euro forecasts that show above normal precip along the coastal areas AN precip is always a good start in my book, add to that normal temps, and I think we go AN on snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Looks like NOAA googled el nino climo and added some finishing touches. I think they do that every year but Euro and CFS, how could I forget, are showing the AN precip along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Looks like NOAA googled el nino climo and added some finishing touches. That's pretty much all they do I think. They really seem behind the curve on seasonal forecasting. Our chances for equal chances are always much better than equal chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Looks like NOAA googled el nino climo and added some finishing touches. not too shocking. at least there was this! "Last year’s winter was exceptionally cold and snowy across most of the United States, east of the Rockies. A repeat of this extreme pattern is unlikely this year," Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 not too shocking. at least there was this! "Last year’s winter was exceptionally cold and snowy across most of the United States, east of the Rockies. A repeat of this extreme pattern is unlikely this year," Carefully tiptoeing out onto that 6 foot diameter limb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Looks like NOAA googled el nino climo and added some finishing touches. Look familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Carefully tiptoeing out onto that 6 foot diameter limb. yeah i suppose though outside the upper midwest i'm not sure I'd categorize last winter as super exceptional cold wise. around here it was mainly transient at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 love the map....hate the years I just took huge snow years...not meant to be taken seriously...not sure how anyone could "hate" the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 yeah i suppose though outside the upper midwest i'm not sure I'd categorize last winter as super exceptional cold wise. around here it was mainly transient at least. Yeah, the biggest anomalies were in the upper midwest, but we tacked on pretty impressive BN Jan-Mar. I understand the NWS desire to play conservative, but they're going conservative to the point of being borderline useless. They're getting lapped by private seasonal forecasters. Hell, I give Matt's seasonal forecast more weight than their's. Oh well, just my 2c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Look familiar? Lol. In their defense, it's a fine forecast. Making a definitive forecast in Oct is precarious at best. I do find the 33% stripe up the east coast interesting. Weak ninos and warm neutrals don't really signal that. Honestly, they don't really show it in the deep south either. And there's a +anomaly in the pac NW. Composite for winter tri-monthlies in the .5-1.0 range: Maybe reading between the lines says that NOAA believes this winter will act more like a mod nino even if it ends up weak. There are signs that the atmosphere is behaving more nino like than the numerical state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 yeah i suppose though outside the upper midwest i'm not sure I'd categorize last winter as super exceptional cold wise. around here it was mainly transient at least. Some impressive stuff in the upper MW. Some people probably didn't think it was possible to get that cold again. Breaking hundred year record lows is rare nowadays. Even with our averages not really being that impressive, we sure had some impressive lows and it occurred multiple times. I think using extreme to describe last winter's cold shots is fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Yeah, the biggest anomalies were in the upper midwest, but we tacked on pretty impressive BN Jan-Mar. I understand the NWS desire to play conservative, but they're going conservative to the point of being borderline useless. They're getting lapped by private seasonal forecasters. Hell, I give Matt's seasonal forecast more weight than their's. Oh well, just my 2c. You get what you pay for.. Not to mention private forecasters and hobbyists don't have to answer to the general public which could never comprehend why a forecast didn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I just took huge snow years...not meant to be taken seriously...not sure how anyone could "hate" the years meh, I read too fast and thought the years were starting in DEC vs. ending in FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I don't like the years either. My analog years are 52-53, 58-59, 76-77, 79-80. I'm also thinking of using 04-05, but so far no. I'm really liking 79-80 for several factors. Lets start with ENSO. If you look at 78-79, the year before 79-80, it was similar to 2013-14, it was cool neutral going into the end of the year, very much like what we saw at the end of 2013. The difference is that the early part of 2014 went to a weak La Nina, where early 79 went almost to flat neutral. However what I would like to draw your attention to, is that 78-79 which saw mostly neutral cool was followed by a weak El Nino in 79-80. 2013-14 was also a neutral cool to weak La Nina and is expected to be followed by weak El Nino in 2014-15. Its the only two years back to back that I saw this pattern, unless I'm blind. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml After that I went looking for all the suspect telleconections (sp?). The QBO, EPO, PDO, AO and NAO in fall of 1979 all looked somewhat similar to the fall of this this year. If you extrapolate the expected forecast for these indices out into Dec/Jan/Feb for this year I think you find that they fit 1979-80 reasonably close. I trust that those that read this will know where to find the historical indices. I'm leaning towards using those analog years giving 79-80 2-3 times the weight as opposed to the other years and see what I come up with. One caveat here. What ever the analogs show will probably need to be adjusted because of the drought out west. I haven't looked at the Palmer Drought comparison for each of my analog years or my composite, but I would highly expect the far west will be much wetter than opposed to this year. Dry begets dry, even if we can get a good mid to upper level trough to set up over California I'm afraid it may be to dry at the surface to cause much lift thus limiting precip. I will have to decide how these systems interact with the southern jet. Will they survive the Rockies??? How this will affect the Mid Atlantic subforum is yet to be decided. Any thoughts would be appreciated, I'm pretty thick skinned so I can take the criticism, but if you disagree with my analog years please point out the short comings so I can learn... Thanks in advance. I'm not going to rely too much on analogs this winter...the problem with your analogs is the such different results...what is the idea? to average them?...even if you weight 79-80 higher, factoring in the others washes it out a bit...you kind of have to commit under your approach...and there is high risk-reward...as far as your actual analogs, I think they all have some merit and some drawbacks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 seems to concur with the Euro forecasts that show above normal precip along the coastal areas AN precip is always a good start in my book, add to that normal temps, and I think we go AN on snow I think so too. And a below avg. precip outlook in the GL tells me that we might not get dominated with a ns storm track. All I'm worried about is precip.......will take chances with temps...............yeah, I know, nobody needs to say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Check out this seasonal forecast; not even positive on which model this is. Lead 1 starts at the NDJ time frame. But it sure shows one heck of a -NAO block. I've checked out the past forecasts and it seems to have been somewhat inaccurate so take it with a grain of salt. It seemed to have gotten the AO state correct for 2011-2012 but totally busted on the east coast temps. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201409/carealtime.html To change the date to check out previous months/years, just change the "201409" in the URL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I'm not going to rely too much on analogs this winter...the problem with your analogs is the such different results...what is the idea? to average them?...even if you weight 79-80 higher, factoring in the others washes it out a bit...you kind of have to commit under your approach...and there is high risk-reward...as far as your actual analogs, I think they all have some merit and some drawbacks... I'm with you on that. Last year only had one modern era analog and we didn't know it until winter was well underway. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I'm with you on that. Last year only had one modern era analog and we didn't know it until winter was well underway. lol. And I am still having trouble reverse engineering it to generate the logic and reasoning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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