Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[Sparky]

nah, I just knew we'd be paying a price for what we got, and quite a price it was (winters of 10/11 & 11/12)

11/12 has to be the most pleasant winter ever.  Heck if you are not getting snow that is the way to do it.

[mitchnick]

11/12 has to be the most pleasant winter ever.  Heck if you are not getting snow that is the way to do it.

my idea of a pleasant winter

http://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_20100210_snow_images

[Bob Chill]

I've been unusually reserved about this winter. Partly because last year was so killer but mostly because things are still pretty muddy. But the signs are improving and early indications are mostly pointing towards a lower chance of a torch or bust.

 

I was digging through old research I did in previous winters and came across some snow cover stuff I compiled back in 2012. I couldn't find my master spread so it was too much trouble to update. I found this snip. It's the top 10 October eurasian snowcover years and subsequent AO behavior. I'll probably go back and compare to Septembers to figure out how much of the total came in Oct but for now, the list is just the totals at the end of Oct in descending order. 

 

 

 

2013 is now #4 on the list and 2012 is #12 behind 2009. I think both years are important so I looked into a couple things. 2012 is interesting (and sad. lol) because we did get the AO response in Dec. But it was rendered useless by a very hostile Pac. I'm not sure how easy those things are to predict at longer leads. Probably just a good example of how things can go bad with a -AO but infrequent for the most part. All we can do is hope it doesn't happen again. 

 

Looking at the list does show that simply expecting a -ao winter because of high extent doesn't always work out as planned. The strong enso events seem to have an impact (not surprising). I'm not sure what happened in 06-07. I checked Sept extent and it wasn't impressive so the rate of increase was high. There are always outliers to every connection so it's probably just year to keep in mind when looking forward. 

 

It's a really small dataset so much caution making fast decisions but if you pull neutral enso and weak nino years from the bunch you get a subset of 76-77, 77-78, 06-07, 12-13, and 13-14. All weenies will like this seasonal composite:

 

 

 

I went ahead and pulled the Oct composite for those years to compare to Oct MTD. Pretty interesting. About as perfect a match as you can get with anomaly placement. 

 

 

 

 

The rest of October will change the look though from what guidance is advertising right now. The negative anomalies south of the Aleutians are going to take a hit (unlikely to get erased) and the GOA region is likely going to show an area of solid neg anomalies. I'm not sure it matters much though. If the next couple weeks go as planned, the neg anomalies in the npac will stretch from south of the Aleutians into the GOA. Pretty common look on the means for weak/mod nino's. No big deal for now. 

 

The subset would imply that we are potentially in a good setup for a decent period(s) of below normal temps this winter. How cold, which month(s), and how long it lasts (assuming we are headed that way) is a tough question. 

 

But we care more about snow than temps anyways. Here's the snow totals for the 3 airports for the subset:

 

 

 

It's the typical feast or famine look. lol. 2 great and 3 mehs. Ironically the averages are right @ climo but we don't do climo so...it's anyone's guess. I'm thinking that we go meh unless we get a nice coastal in the mix. I personally doubt we nickel and dime +climo. 

 

 

ETA: I'm making an assumption right now that SCE in eurasia ends up high as we close the month. Off to a big start and models continue to advertise an active patters south of 60N in that region. If SCE ends up in the middle of the pack then using any of the subset analogs is a bad idea. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I've been unusually reserved about this winter. Partly because last year was so killer but mostly because things are still pretty muddy. But the signs are improving and early indications are mostly pointing towards a lower chance of a torch or bust.

 

I was digging through old research I did in previous winters and came across some snow cover stuff I compiled back in 2012. I couldn't find my master spread so it was too much trouble to update. I found this snip. It's the top 10 October eurasian snowcover years and subsequent AO behavior. I'll probably go back and compare to Septembers to figure out how much of the total came in Oct but for now, the list is just the totals at the end of Oct in descending order. 

 

top10eurasia.GIF

 

 

2013 is now #4 on the list and 2012 is #12 behind 2009. I think both years are important so I looked into a couple things. 2012 is interesting (and sad. lol) because we did get the AO response in Dec. But it was rendered useless by a very hostile Pac. I'm not sure how easy those things are to predict at longer leads. Probably just a good example of how things can go bad with a -AO but infrequent for the most part. All we can do is hope it doesn't happen again. 

 

Looking at the list does show that simply expecting a -ao winter because of high extent doesn't always work out as planned. The strong enso events seem to have an impact (not surprising). I'm not sure what happened in 06-07. I checked Sept extent and it wasn't impressive so the rate of increase was high. There are always outliers to every connection so it's probably just year to keep in mind when looking forward. 

 

It's a really small dataset so much caution making fast decisions but if you pull neutral enso and weak nino years from the bunch you get a subset of 76-77, 77-78, 06-07, 12-13, and 13-14. All weenies will like this seasonal composite:

 

SCE.ENSO.GIF

 

 

I went ahead and pulled the Oct composite for those years to compare to Oct MTD. Pretty interesting. About as perfect a match as you can get with anomaly placement. 

 

SCE.OCT.GIF

 

oct1-12.GIF

 

 

The rest of October will change the look though from what guidance is advertising right now. The negative anomalies south of the Aleutians are going to take a hit (unlikely to get erased) and the GOA region is likely going to show an area of solid neg anomalies. I'm not sure it matters much though. If the next couple weeks go as planned, the neg anomalies in the npac will stretch from south of the Aleutians into the GOA. Pretty common look on the means for weak/mod nino's. No big deal for now. 

 

The subset would imply that we are potentially in a good setup for a decent period(s) of below normal temps this winter. How cold, which month(s), and how long it lasts (assuming we are headed that way) is a tough question. 

 

But we care more about snow than temps anyways. Here's the snow totals for the 3 airports for the subset:

 

SCE.SNO.GIF

 

 

It's the typical feast or famine look. lol. 2 great and 3 mehs. Ironically the averages are right @ climo but we don't do climo so...it's anyone's guess. I'm thinking that we go meh unless we get a nice coastal in the mix. I personally doubt we nickel and dime +climo. 

 

 

ETA: I'm making an assumption right now that SCE in eurasia ends up high as we close the month. Off to a big start and models continue to advertise an active patters south of 60N in that region. If SCE ends up in the middle of the pack then using any of the subset analogs is a bad idea. 

Those 76-77 snow totals are amazing.

[mitchnick]

I've been unusually reserved about this winter. Partly because last year was so killer but mostly because things are still pretty muddy. But the signs are improving and early indications are mostly pointing towards a lower chance of a torch or bust.

 

I was digging through old research I did in previous winters and came across some snow cover stuff I compiled back in 2012. I couldn't find my master spread so it was too much trouble to update. I found this snip. It's the top 10 October eurasian snowcover years and subsequent AO behavior. I'll probably go back and compare to Septembers to figure out how much of the total came in Oct but for now, the list is just the totals at the end of Oct in descending order. 

 

top10eurasia.GIF

 

 

2013 is now #4 on the list and 2012 is #12 behind 2009. I think both years are important so I looked into a couple things. 2012 is interesting (and sad. lol) because we did get the AO response in Dec. But it was rendered useless by a very hostile Pac. I'm not sure how easy those things are to predict at longer leads. Probably just a good example of how things can go bad with a -AO but infrequent for the most part. All we can do is hope it doesn't happen again. 

 

Looking at the list does show that simply expecting a -ao winter because of high extent doesn't always work out as planned. The strong enso events seem to have an impact (not surprising). I'm not sure what happened in 06-07. I checked Sept extent and it wasn't impressive so the rate of increase was high. There are always outliers to every connection so it's probably just year to keep in mind when looking forward. 

 

It's a really small dataset so much caution making fast decisions but if you pull neutral enso and weak nino years from the bunch you get a subset of 76-77, 77-78, 06-07, 12-13, and 13-14. All weenies will like this seasonal composite:

 

SCE.ENSO.GIF

 

 

I went ahead and pulled the Oct composite for those years to compare to Oct MTD. Pretty interesting. About as perfect a match as you can get with anomaly placement. 

 

SCE.OCT.GIF

 

oct1-12.GIF

 

 

The rest of October will change the look though from what guidance is advertising right now. The negative anomalies south of the Aleutians are going to take a hit (unlikely to get erased) and the GOA region is likely going to show an area of solid neg anomalies. I'm not sure it matters much though. If the next couple weeks go as planned, the neg anomalies in the npac will stretch from south of the Aleutians into the GOA. Pretty common look on the means for weak/mod nino's. No big deal for now. 

 

The subset would imply that we are potentially in a good setup for a decent period(s) of below normal temps this winter. How cold, which month(s), and how long it lasts (assuming we are headed that way) is a tough question. 

 

But we care more about snow than temps anyways. Here's the snow totals for the 3 airports for the subset:

 

SCE.SNO.GIF

 

 

It's the typical feast or famine look. lol. 2 great and 3 mehs. Ironically the averages are right @ climo but we don't do climo so...it's anyone's guess. I'm thinking that we go meh unless we get a nice coastal in the mix. I personally doubt we nickel and dime +climo. 

 

 

ETA: I'm making an assumption right now that SCE in eurasia ends up high as we close the month. Off to a big start and models continue to advertise an active patters south of 60N in that region. If SCE ends up in the middle of the pack then using any of the subset analogs is a bad idea. 

Great stuff Bob, thank you!

Your master snow cover list was probably from this link below:

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/snow/snw_cvr_area/NH_AREA

 

the main page with more snow cover info is here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/snow/

 

as I said in an earlier post to Matt, the -AO may end up being what the doctor ordered with the NINO weak/frail because it will at least push the cold into our area

[BTRWx]

I've been unusually reserved about this winter. Partly because last year was so killer but mostly because things are still pretty muddy. But the signs are improving and early indications are mostly pointing towards a lower chance of a torch or bust.

 

I was digging through old research I did in previous winters and came across some snow cover stuff I compiled back in 2012. I couldn't find my master spread so it was too much trouble to update. I found this snip. It's the top 10 October eurasian snowcover years and subsequent AO behavior. I'll probably go back and compare to Septembers to figure out how much of the total came in Oct but for now, the list is just the totals at the end of Oct in descending order. 

 

top10eurasia.GIF

 

 

2013 is now #4 on the list and 2012 is #12 behind 2009. I think both years are important so I looked into a couple things. 2012 is interesting (and sad. lol) because we did get the AO response in Dec. But it was rendered useless by a very hostile Pac. I'm not sure how easy those things are to predict at longer leads. Probably just a good example of how things can go bad with a -AO but infrequent for the most part. All we can do is hope it doesn't happen again. 

 

Looking at the list does show that simply expecting a -ao winter because of high extent doesn't always work out as planned. The strong enso events seem to have an impact (not surprising). I'm not sure what happened in 06-07. I checked Sept extent and it wasn't impressive so the rate of increase was high. There are always outliers to every connection so it's probably just year to keep in mind when looking forward. 

 

It's a really small dataset so much caution making fast decisions but if you pull neutral enso and weak nino years from the bunch you get a subset of 76-77, 77-78, 06-07, 12-13, and 13-14. All weenies will like this seasonal composite:

 

SCE.ENSO.GIF

 

 

I went ahead and pulled the Oct composite for those years to compare to Oct MTD. Pretty interesting. About as perfect a match as you can get with anomaly placement. 

 

SCE.OCT.GIF

 

oct1-12.GIF

 

 

The rest of October will change the look though from what guidance is advertising right now. The negative anomalies south of the Aleutians are going to take a hit (unlikely to get erased) and the GOA region is likely going to show an area of solid neg anomalies. I'm not sure it matters much though. If the next couple weeks go as planned, the neg anomalies in the npac will stretch from south of the Aleutians into the GOA. Pretty common look on the means for weak/mod nino's. No big deal for now. 

 

The subset would imply that we are potentially in a good setup for a decent period(s) of below normal temps this winter. How cold, which month(s), and how long it lasts (assuming we are headed that way) is a tough question. 

 

But we care more about snow than temps anyways. Here's the snow totals for the 3 airports for the subset:

 

SCE.SNO.GIF

 

 

It's the typical feast or famine look. lol. 2 great and 3 mehs. Ironically the averages are right @ climo but we don't do climo so...it's anyone's guess. I'm thinking that we go meh unless we get a nice coastal in the mix. I personally doubt we nickel and dime +climo. 

 

 

ETA: I'm making an assumption right now that SCE in eurasia ends up high as we close the month. Off to a big start and models continue to advertise an active patters south of 60N in that region. If SCE ends up in the middle of the pack then using any of the subset analogs is a bad idea. 

Good stuff! My question is should there be a red flag if October doesn't end up with cold anomalies locally as compared to your correlation maps? So far much of the country seems to be above. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/compday.pKUF_HBWCC.gif EDIT: I was looking at near surface conditions, so I guess things look fine.

[Bob Chill]

I ran the Sept-Oct differential data. I know this isn't a perfect fit because I have no data source for the south of 60N vs all of eurasia.

 

Here's the top 15 (extent is in thousands of km2):

 

 

 

 

We closed out Sept on the high side (2.34) but it's been off to the races for sure. I suppose we want to root for Oct to close out >12.34. Pretty good company in the mix. 68-69 was a complete disaster here though. Mod nino with door to door blocking and virtually snowless until March. Looks like a big aleutian ridge and a GOA placed too far east ruined it. Monster -pna for DJF . Weird year. No thanks on that one. 

[Ginx snewx]

I ran the Sept-Oct differential data. I know this isn't a perfect fit because I have no data source for the south of 60N vs all of eurasia.

Here's the top 15 (extent is in thousands of km2):

Sept-Oct SCE differential.GIF

We closed out Sept on the high side (2.34) but it's been off to the races for sure. I suppose we want to root for Oct to close out >12.34. Pretty good company in the mix. 68-69 was a complete disaster here though. Mod nino with door to door blocking and virtually snowless until March. Looks like a big aleutian ridge and a GOA placed too far east ruined it. Monster -pna for DJF . Weird year. No thanks on that one.

Great work Bob thanks, that list is like a who's who of great winters in my hood.

[Deck Pic]

This composite yielded an average of 12"....Yay -AO!!

 

 

[Deck Pic]

Nice work Bob, by the way...

[Ginx snewx]

This composite yielded an average of 12"....Yay -AO!!

Y_e39sE8AY.png

interestingly in the main OPI thread I wrote this analysis when at least 1 day in OCT AO dropped below -2,strong similarities ,

"composite of all October's with AO days LESS than -2 in Oct. 15/20 winters in ORH were at or above climo snow with 11 out of those 15 significantly or well above normal. The years following winters composite 5H pattern."

[Bob Chill]

Nice work Bob, by the way...

Thanks. We'll see if it means anything in a couple months. The whole connection with sai and sce is pretty new so a work in process from pros. I just like looking at #s. Lol

Your -ao composite is funny. We know where we live. Even when it's good we still work hard for our money. But when its bad....ugh...I don't even need to pull a +ao composite to know what it looks like.

[Deck Pic]

there has been nice warming in the last week.. almost no cold anomalies anywhere in the nino regions....my dailies for 3, 3.4, and 4 are 0.8, 0.6, 0.8

[mitchnick]

there has been nice warming in the last week.. almost no cold anomalies anywhere in the nino regions....my dailies for 3, 3.4, and 4 are 0.8, 0.6, 0.8

yep, and this SSTA map shows it better than the other one imho

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif

[Bob Chill]

Great stuff Bob, thank you!

Your master snow cover list was probably from this link below:

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/snow/snw_cvr_area/NH_AREA

 

the main page with more snow cover info is here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/snow/

 

as I said in an earlier post to Matt, the -AO may end up being what the doctor ordered with the NINO weak/frail because it will at least push the cold into our area

I'm more concerned about the PNA region right now. Especially December. Even with a -ao, if the goa trough is centered too far east then it will screw up the storm track. I'm probably just being paranoid for no reason but I can't shake the hunch. 

[AlaskaETC]

I'm more concerned about the PNA region right now. Especially December. Even with a -ao, if the goa trough is centered too far east then it will screw up the storm track. I'm probably just being paranoid for no reason but I can't shake the hunch. 

 

I share your concern...that ridge in Alaska is definitely less dominant these days, but CFS shows it returning in the short range. Maybe it will hold firm.

[mattie g]

I'm more concerned about the PNA region right now. Especially December. Even with a -ao, if the goa trough is centered too far east then it will screw up the storm track. I'm probably just being paranoid for no reason but I can't shake the hunch. 

 

I'm concerned about next summer.  Models should be in range in about six months.  I hope we don't have a 2012 redux.

[mitchnick]

I'm concerned about next summer.  Models should be in range in about six months.  I hope we don't have a 2012 redux.

http://www.wikihow.com/Be-Sincere

[mitchnick]

I'm more concerned about the PNA region right now. Especially December. Even with a -ao, if the goa trough is centered too far east then it will screw up the storm track. I'm probably just being paranoid for no reason but I can't shake the hunch. 

last year, a trough dominated over eastern Asia

I remember every day I would check out this link and run thru all 10 days of each Euro run, and there was never a ridge of consequence to the south of or over Japan; it helped pumping the ridge of AK

this year it continues with one trough after the other

I'm not worried about that problem yet....but I'll certainly let you know when I am!

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!0!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014101512!!/

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm concerned about next summer. Models should be in range in about six months. I hope we don't have a 2012 redux.

[Isotherm]

Not sure how much accuracy it has from this lead time, but the JMA did an about-face and now depicts a rather obscene looking pattern for DJF. Mean pattern looks like the composite of La Nina years rather than El Nino.

 

 

 

 

December:

 

 

 

 

January:

 

[AlaskaETC]

Not sure how much accuracy it has from this lead time, but the JMA did an about-face and now depicts a rather obscene looking pattern for DJF. Mean pattern looks like the composite of La Nina years rather than El Nino.

 

 

 

 

December:

 

 

 

 

January:

 

 

Roh roh..

[hosj III]

Roh roh..

Winter cancel.

 

Anyway, is there anything it could be seeing? That really makes no sense... given that we will have a nino by winter, this pattern looks ridiculous.

[mitchnick]

Roh roh..

 

 

Winter cancel.

 

Anyway, is there anything it could be seeing? That really makes no sense... given that we will have a nino by winter, this pattern looks ridiculous.

no worries

new Eurosip ensemble winter forecast is out today and it looks better than the Euro long winter model that came out last week, all per Coastalwx in NE forum

start with this post and read down

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43733-2014-2015-winter-outlooks-and-discussions/?p=3085291

[Deck Pic]

Not sure how much accuracy it has from this lead time, but the JMA did an about-face and now depicts a rather obscene looking pattern for DJF. Mean pattern looks like the composite of La Nina years rather than El Nino

 

I strained my neck for that?

[Deck Pic]

no worries

new Eurosip ensemble winter forecast is out today and it looks better than the Euro long winter model that came out last week, all per Coastalwx in NE forum

start with this post and read down

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43733-2014-2015-winter-outlooks-and-discussions/?p=3085291

 

I have a copy

 

[mitchnick]

I have a copy

 

eurosips.png

love the map....hate the years

[Minnesota Meso]

I have a copy

 

eurosips.png

 

I don't like the years either. My analog years are 52-53, 58-59, 76-77, 79-80.   I'm also thinking of using 04-05, but so far no. 

 

I'm really liking 79-80 for several factors. Lets start with ENSO.  If you look at 78-79, the year before 79-80, it was similar to 2013-14, it was cool neutral going into the end of the year, very much like what we saw at the end of 2013. The difference is that the early part of 2014 went to a weak La Nina, where early 79 went almost to flat neutral.  However what I would like to draw your attention to, is that 78-79 which saw mostly neutral cool was followed by a weak El Nino in 79-80. 2013-14 was also a neutral cool to weak La Nina and is expected to be followed by weak El Nino in 2014-15. Its the only two years back to back that I saw this pattern, unless I'm blind.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

 

After that I went looking for all the suspect telleconections (sp?).  The QBO, EPO, PDO, AO and NAO in fall of 1979 all looked somewhat similar to the fall of this this year.  If you extrapolate the expected forecast for these indices out into Dec/Jan/Feb for this year I think you find that they fit 1979-80 reasonably close.  I trust that those that read this will know where to find the historical indices. I'm leaning towards using those analog years giving 79-80 2-3 times the weight as opposed to the other years and see what I come up with.

 

One caveat here. What ever the analogs show will probably need to be adjusted because of the drought out west. I haven't looked at the Palmer Drought comparison for each of my analog years or my composite, but I would highly expect the far west will be much wetter than opposed to this year.  Dry begets dry, even if we can get a good mid to upper level trough to set up over California I'm afraid it may be to dry at the surface to cause much lift thus limiting precip. I will have to decide how these systems interact with the southern jet. Will they survive the Rockies??? How this will affect the Mid Atlantic subforum is yet to be decided.

 

Any thoughts would be appreciated, I'm pretty thick skinned so I can take the criticism, but if you disagree with my analog years please point out the short comings so I can learn... Thanks in advance.

[WinterWxLuvr]

love the map....hate the years

LOL, has two of my three on it.

[jonjon]

FWIW, wooly worms appear to have much more red on them this year.  Almost all black last year.