Deck Pic Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Are there links to the actual SAI index or is that in Judah Cohen's secret vault?....Nothing wrong with eyeballing, but numerics would help... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Nino is finally getting showing signs of life, and the PDO is looking as good as it has looked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Are there links to the actual SAI index or is that in Judah Cohen's secret vault?....Nothing wrong with eyeballing, but numerics would help... From what I can tell, there is no real time index source. Considering the SAI mostly uses sd's and time over a specific area (someone correct me if I'm wrong), everything that has happened so far this month fits the -AO forecast pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 It's a near best case scenario so far for the whole SAI stuff. NA ended sept with a record but it has dropped to just above average. All models shows the extent in the western half of Canada to increase southward over the next week or so. Some signs of eastern Canada getting appreciable snowfall too but that probably doesn't mean much. Everything looks solid. SAI going well, strong anomaly south of the Aleutians, +PDO gaining traction. I don't see any cause for concern yet. We're still over a month away before December has any clarity anyways. Completely agreed that there's no reason to be concerned. I'm just being greedy. That PDO certainly is looking tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Completely agreed that there's no reason to be concerned. I'm just being greedy. That PDO certainly is looking tasty. greed is good....at least when it comes to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Nino is finally getting showing signs of life, and the PDO is looking as good as it has looked Agreed. I posted in the main enso thread earlier today about that. Pretty subtle improvement in 3.4 but looks better. I'm not sure it means much unless we get a favorable and persistent pattern for improvement. Some signs there but there have been plenty of letdowns for months with forecasts for improving conditions. The pdo will be + this month for sure and that makes 9 months straight. First time since 02-03. That period lasted for 2 years (3 if you take out 3 months of -pdo). Oct 11th 03 is still the best match with ssta's. The goa region will be under assault for a while so I'm thinking the back will be broken on widespread + anoms before long. The 03 look may continue. I don't think it's a terrible idea to consider any winter from 02-05 for clues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Official weekly numbers out today and last week's above them Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01OCT2014 21.7 1.1 25.4 0.5 27.1 0.3 29.2 0.5 08OCT2014 21.3 0.6 25.5 0.6 27.1 0.4 29.1 0.5 but I think if the numbers were from today and not the 8th, we'd be a bit higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Official weekly numbers out today and last week's above them Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01OCT2014 21.7 1.1 25.4 0.5 27.1 0.3 29.2 0.5 08OCT2014 21.3 0.6 25.5 0.6 27.1 0.4 29.1 0.5 but I think if the numbers were from today and not the 8th, we'd be a bit higher agreed.....I think it is centered on the 8th so basically 10/5 - 10/11....next update should be warmer assuming we continue on the trajectory we are on...I mean, this is go time..If we don't have nino conditions in 3.4 in the next 2 weeks, we can probably write it off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Agreed. I posted in the main enso thread earlier today about that. Pretty subtle improvement in 3.4 but looks better. I'm not sure it means much unless we get a favorable and persistent pattern for improvement. Some signs there but there have been plenty of letdowns for months with forecasts for improving conditions. The pdo will be + this month for sure and that makes 9 months straight. First time since 02-03. That period lasted for 2 years (3 if you take out 3 months of -pdo). Oct 11th 03 is still the best match with ssta's. The goa region will be under assault for a while so I'm thinking the back will be broken on widespread + anoms before long. The 03 look may continue. I don't think it's a terrible idea to consider any winter from 02-05 for clues. Bob, with the current and forecasted series of troughs/storms in and around the GOA, the surface temps should take a hit, as you mentioned. Any idea on the sustainability of a cool-down there? I'm wondering if the warmth exists at depth, so that the surface temps would rebound when/if ridging returns to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Agreed. I posted in the main enso thread earlier today about that. Pretty subtle improvement in 3.4 but looks better. I'm not sure it means much unless we get a favorable and persistent pattern for improvement. Some signs there but there have been plenty of letdowns for months with forecasts for improving conditions. The pdo will be + this month for sure and that makes 9 months straight. First time since 02-03. That period lasted for 2 years (3 if you take out 3 months of -pdo). Oct 11th 03 is still the best match with ssta's. The goa region will be under assault for a while so I'm thinking the back will be broken on widespread + anoms before long. The 03 look may continue. I don't think it's a terrible idea to consider any winter from 02-05 for clues. I'm feeling better and better about a cold January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Bob, with the current and forecasted series of troughs/storms in and around the GOA, the surface temps should take a hit, as you mentioned. Any idea on the sustainability of a cool-down there? I'm wondering if the warmth exists at depth, so that the surface temps would rebound when/if ridging returns to the area. I'm really not sure about subsurface temps. The GOA region is fed by both the north pac gyre and subpolar gyre. It's cold water to start even when above normal. It's probably more important to look into the pattern that is driving the cooling. An area of low pressure on the means south of the aleutians into the GOA is a pretty common feature in Nino's. It's almost expected. IMO- I see the area cooling as a good thing because it's a sign that the atmosphere and weather patterns are taking on common nino characteristics. We should be expecting the area to cool. After looking closely at last year and did some reading, it became pretty clear that the warm pool was simply a product of a dominant -epo that lasted for many months on the means. That pattern started just about this time last year and become quite anomalous during Nov. There really aren't any signs pointing towards an anomalous -epo for the rest of the month. Looks to stay mostly positive. The enitre GOA region was below to much below normal this time last year. In response to the -epo in Oct and Nov, the GOA quickly flipped to mostly above normal by mid Nov. And then continues to warm as the anomalous pattern dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 I'm feeling better and better about a cold January I've been thinking the same thing. I'm also thinking Dec starts warm but slowly transitions through the month. I can't get the thoughts of -pna on the means for the first half or more of Dec. Mostly a wag but I can't shake it. Even if Dec starts off with a solid -ao, it can still be negated. That's one way. Or a Dec 2012 redux. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Nice article by CWG. SIAP. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/13/fall-snow-bonanza-in-north-america-and-siberia-may-portend-brutal-winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 I'm really not sure about subsurface temps. The GOA region is fed by both the north pac gyre and subpolar gyre. It's cold water to start even when above normal. It's probably more important to look into the pattern that is driving the cooling. An area of low pressure on the means south of the aleutians into the GOA is a pretty common feature in Nino's. It's almost expected. IMO- I see the area cooling as a good thing because it's a sign that the atmosphere and weather patterns are taking on common nino characteristics. We should be expecting the area to cool. After looking closely at last year and did some reading, it became pretty clear that the warm pool was simply a product of a dominant -epo that lasted for many months on the means. That pattern started just about this time last year and become quite anomalous during Nov. There really aren't any signs pointing towards an anomalous -epo for the rest of the month. Looks to stay mostly positive. The enitre GOA region was below to much below normal this time last year. In response to the -epo in Oct and Nov, the GOA quickly flipped to mostly above normal by mid Nov. And then continues to warm as the anomalous pattern dominated. Thanks very much. What you describe makes sense...I didn't know if there was any connection between subsurface anomalies and surface temps. You certainly don't hear about it in that region like you do in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 I've been thinking the same thing. I'm also thinking Dec starts warm but slowly transitions through the month. I can't get the thoughts of -pna on the means for the first half or more of Dec. Mostly a wag but I can't shake it. Even if Dec starts off with a solid -ao, it can still be negated. That's one way. Or a Dec 2012 redux. LOL. I'll take a Dec 2012..........or 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Yeah, the danger with rapid snow cover build up over Siberia is that it could displace the PV over Eurasia for extended periods, more than what we would like. The Canadian side is really lacking, but still near average. If we get the rapid build up and expansion of snow cover over Siberia in the fall, and development of the Siberian High, the cold air is going to spill over into N America. At this point I dont think it matters much that snow cover isn't impressive in northern Canada. The basic sequence with Cohen's ideas(correlation) is cold dense air and high pressure builds over Siberia as a result of the expanding snow cover, the jet stream buckles southward over N America, stratosphere warms and weakens the PV, development of -AO and resulting arctic outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 greed is good....at least when it comes to snow Mitch Gekko... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Are there links to the actual SAI index or is that in Judah Cohen's secret vault?....Nothing wrong with eyeballing, but numerics would help... I think the SAI index was developed by Cohen for AER. I don't believe that they make their weather/climate forecasting tools available to us weenie folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 I think the SAI index was developed by Cohen for AER. I don't believe that they make their weather/climate forecasting tools available to us weenie folk. I can't post the graphic here, but a private sector group is keeping the index and we are killing it so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Raw snowcover data taken from the general forum (posted by cfbagget): That is a stunningly massive recent increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 ^ It would be nice to have to rescale the graph this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Raw snowcover data taken from the general forum (posted by cfbagget): That is a stunningly massive recent increase. I have going back to 1999, and the only year that is close at this point is 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 I can't post the graphic here, but a private sector group is keeping the index and we are killing it so far.. That is good to know...and just monitoring the daily snow cover over the last 2 weeks(even without hard numbers) its evident the rate of snowfall expansion is impressive, especially over the last 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 All med-lr guidance looks decent for continuing gains south of 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I think Matt and Bob are leaning toward an historic winter. Ok, I'm cool with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 With each passing day, I become more IN. If it doesn't work out, we can always blame Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Or Mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 So we aren't cancelling winter? Or just waiting until November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I like surprises better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 http://i.imgur.com/8F9rWNn.gif?1 Per GFS we are headed towards near-record SCE.... compare with October 31st 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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