Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[AvantHiatus]

[hosj III]

 

 

Nino regions 1+2 are on fire. At least the warm pool in the gulf of alaska may prevent a screaming +EPO from persisting all winter.

[uncle W]

if we get an el nino it will be the first one since 2009-10...Other years with at least three years between el nino's are...

1951, 1957, 1963, 1976, 1982, 1986, 1991, 2002...the average of these analogs looks like average temperatures with above average precipitation along the coast...Chicago and Detroit get a warmer and drier winter...I wouldn't like seeing a 1951 or 1991 season but 1963 or 2002 I'll take in a heart beat...

[hosj III]

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino12Sea.gif

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd1/nino34Sea.gif

 

 

Mod west-based nino?

[mitchnick]

CFS2 lining up perfectly with an El Nino

ridge over AK dies during the summer so heat diminishes, then reappears by NOV while warmth grows in the east/southeast

IF we stay on target, DEC would be around normal and wet and JAN-FEB cold and wet

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

....unless it turns out to be NINO 94/95 and 91/92 style, in which case we're fooked

but I still like those maps on the CFS2

[WxUSAF]

Yikes.  Let's hope the Peruvian coast area cools down.  

 

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

I'm going to stick my neck out and say we don't surpass +1.5C on the trimonthly ONI. I think a moderate El Niño is more likely than anything else at this point.

1) As "Isotherm" noted in the main ENSO thread, both April and May of 2014 have featured a +SOI average to this point. Never has a strong El Niño developed with a +SOI average during both April and May. We still have 2 weeks left in May, but we'll need a significant downturn to achieve a -SOI average.

2). There are no WWBs in sight. The other big-time El Niños, most notably 1997-98, featured heavy WWB activity in May. We have not seen that, and probably will not through at least the next two weeks. The next 4 weeks are fairly crucial, as we leave the "Spring Barrier" towards late June.

I know that statistics are not always the best predictive tool, but they do capture much of the resonance-like behavior when it comes to ENSO. So I guess we'll see where this goes.

[North Balti Zen]

WxUSAF:

 

I know almost nothing about El Nino/La Nina indicators...why are noting a problem with a hot pool of water off the Peruvian cost?

[Bob Chill]

WxUSAF:

I know almost nothing about El Nino/La Nina indicators...why are noting a problem with a hot pool of water off the Peruvian cost?

West based warm pools are what we want for snow in the east. Basin wide or east based stronger nino's can end up like some of the disaster years like 72-73 or 97-98.

[North Balti Zen]

West based warm pools are what we want for snow in the east. Basin wide or east based stronger nino's can end up like some of the disaster years like 72-73 or 97-98.

 

Ah, thanks.

 

Then, yes, let's most definitely re-located the warm pool from that location.

[WxUSAF]

Ah, thanks.

 

Then, yes, let's most definitely re-located the warm pool from that location.

It seems pretty safe to say the central Pac will be/is getting warm.  Some of the forecasts cool of the eastern Pac near Peru and that would be ideal for us.  

[Bob Chill]

It seems pretty safe to say the central Pac will be/is getting warm. Some of the forecasts cool of the eastern Pac near Peru and that would be ideal for us.

Yes it would. We'll see how it goes. ENSO has been particularly tough to forecast of late. We thought we were moving towards a Nino at the same time last year. Not saying I'm doubting a Nino because it seems really likely. How strong and where the highest anomalies preside is awful tough to make a definitive call on.

I'm in the camp that doubts we get a strong or super nino. But it's possible. I'm not that worried. We're due for a nice -nao winter anyways.

[ORH_wxman]

It seems pretty safe to say the central Pac will be/is getting warm.  Some of the forecasts cool of the eastern Pac near Peru and that would be ideal for us.  

 

 

The subsurface anomalies are starting to erode in the E PAC...they are sitll strong overall, but not as much as they were. The easterlies picking up are probably going to start chewing away at them more too...hopefully this pushes the warm water to the central/W PAC and the east continues to cool.

 

In the near term though, the east will be baking probably as the warmth from earlier is still surfacing...but I think the easterlies may eventually be felt down the road here:

 

 

[mitchnick]

Yikes.  Let's hope the Peruvian coast area cools down.  

that map is deceiving....as of 5/14, NINO 1+2 was only +1.3C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[mitchnick]

anyone have the info on the cold pool off Newfoundland for predicting the following winter's temp/NAO?

I ask because the water up there is colder than I've ever seen it and the CFS2, fwiw, keeps a decent cold pool going through NOV

here's the current SSTA map off Unisys

[CAPE]

anyone have the info on the cold pool off Newfoundland for predicting the following winter's temp/NAO?

I ask because the water up there is colder than I've ever seen it and the CFS2, fwiw, keeps a decent cold pool going through NOV

here's the current SSTA map off Unisys

Not sure what it means, if anything, wrt the future NAO phase, but could it be a result of higher than normal ice/glacial melting?

[ORH_wxman]

anyone have the info on the cold pool off Newfoundland for predicting the following winter's temp/NAO?

I ask because the water up there is colder than I've ever seen it and the CFS2, fwiw, keeps a decent cold pool going through NOV

here's the current SSTA map off Unisys

 

 

 

The cold/warm/cold Tripole configuration tends to support a +NAO...but the predictive value is fairly weak.

[Deck Pic]

El Ninos always have a -NAO in the means....there might be 1 example when it wasn't true?...I'd have to look..

[Ian]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2644253/Incredible-moment-huge-volcano-erupts-Indonesia-sending-ash-spewing-thousands-feet-sky.html

[MN Transplant]

From SACRUS over in the NYC forum.  Love the "closest trends" list (minus the super-nino, which isn't happening).

 

MEI Value Apr/May: .932

Closest actuals:

 

1980: .922

1957: .901

1953: .830

2002: .801

1997: 1.121

 

 

 

Closest trends based on prior 6 mos;

 

2014 -.318 -.269 -.017 .152 .932
 

 

2002 -.053 -.213 -.201 .342 .801

1982 -.284 -.15 .086 -.038 .407

1986 -.309 -.194 .033 -.166 .322

2009 -.755 -.72 -.719 -.157 .375

1997 -.491 -.611 -.254 .497 1.121

[Deck Pic]

From SACRUS over in the NYC forum.  Love the "closest trends" list (minus the super-nino, which isn't happening).

 

yep....all 4 winters had snowstorms that completely crippled and shut down DC metro...something many of us lacked last winter.

[Bob Chill]

Couple of questions come to mind with the upcoming winter. Height patterns in the npac continue to support ridging and warm pool. EPO has been basically solid negative since the beginning of May. Typical nino winters will have cold sst anoms and low pressure on the means in that area. I expect a transition in that region as we move into winter but if warm sst anoms hold serve through summer and into late fall it will have some affects. IMO it would be good because it could help duplicate some of the split flow, active stj and cold outbreaks we had last winter. With complete weenie goggles on, one could speculate that the nino would have a juicer and more persistent stj than last winter coinciding with cold outbreaks during the first half of winter.

It's a long ways out and not really worth analyzing too much. But if we go into fall/early winter with the ne pac still warm then that could become a big factor in lr forecasts.

Another thing is how the nao will behave this winter. -NAO has basically taken the last 3 winters off. Late 2013 had a small stretch but it was too late and inconsequential. It caused more heartbreak than anything else. lol. It's not unprecedented though. In recent history that has been a couple periods of lasting +NAO winters. Winters of 71-72 through 73-74 were mostly void of any real -nao as was 90-91 through 94-95. Hard to say what happens this year. Nino's without -nao's are bad though. There's a solid list of bad ones. 02-03 defied that though. The only winter month of 02-03 that had a -nao on the means was Dec. Jan-Mar averaged modestly positive. What happens this winter is anyone's guess.

02-03 and 09-10 were obviously killer nino winters but there were some stark differences in height patterns. 02-03 (especially jan-feb) had a dominant -epo pattern but weaker on the blocking. 09-10 was a straight up -nao/ao bonanza.

I think 02-03'ish height patterns are more likely than 09-10 (assuming we have a good winter). There are some similarities with persistent ridging in the epo region so far this year (Mar-June of 02 was dominated with a -epo). 02-03 also came on the heels of 3 straight nina's and a neg neutral. Last 4 years had 2 nina's and 2 neg neutrals.

The short story of my long post is that if we don't have a solid -ao/nao this winter then we'll need a -epo or we'll be toasty. I guess you could say that about every winter. lol.

I personally think the odds of a super nino are shrinking pretty quick. Still possible but the clock is starting to tick. Total wag, but I doubt we'll see a 3.4 tri-monthly higher than 1.6 or so.

[mitchnick]

Couple of questions come to mind with the upcoming winter. Height patterns in the npac continue to support ridging and warm pool. EPO has been basically solid negative since the beginning of May. Typical nino winters will have cold sst anoms and low pressure on the means in that area. I expect a transition in that region as we move into winter but if warm sst anoms hold serve through summer and into late fall it will have some affects. IMO it would be good because it could help duplicate some of the split flow, active stj and cold outbreaks we had last winter. With complete weenie goggles on, one could speculate that the nino would have a juicer and more persistent stj than last winter coinciding with cold outbreaks during the first half of winter.

It's a long ways out and not really worth analyzing too much. But if we go into fall/early winter with the ne pac still warm then that could become a big factor in lr forecasts.

Another thing is how the nao will behave this winter. -NAO has basically taken the last 3 winters off. Late 2013 had a small stretch but it was too late and inconsequential. It caused more heartbreak than anything else. lol. It's not unprecedented though. In recent history that has been a couple periods of lasting +NAO winters. Winters of 71-72 through 73-74 were mostly void of any real -nao as was 90-91 through 94-95. Hard to say what happens this year. Nino's without -nao's are bad though. There's a solid list of bad ones. 02-03 defied that though. The only winter month of 02-03 that had a -nao on the means was Dec. Jan-Mar averaged modestly positive. What happens this winter is anyone's guess.

02-03 and 09-10 were obviously killer nino winters but there were some stark differences in height patterns. 02-03 (especially jan-feb) had a dominant -epo pattern but weaker on the blocking. 09-10 was a straight up -nao/ao bonanza.

I think 02-03'ish height patterns are more likely than 09-10 (assuming we have a good winter). There are some similarities with persistent ridging in the epo region so far this year (Mar-June of 02 was dominated with a -epo). 02-03 also came on the heels of 3 straight nina's and a neg neutral. Last 4 years had 2 nina's and 2 neg neutrals.

The short story of my long post is that if we don't have a solid -ao/nao this winter then we'll need a -epo or we'll be toasty. I guess you could say that about every winter. lol.

I personally think the odds of a super nino are shrinking pretty quick. Still possible but the clock is starting to tick. Total wag, but I doubt we'll see a 3.4 tri-monthly higher than 1.6 or so.

agree on the gist of this Bob and have been thinking the same weenie thoughts wrt the PAC SSTA

the CFS doesn't look that great for a -NAO, but looking at the CFS forecast last year at this time (1st 10 days of June) you never would have thought we would have had a chance at what we got last year so I'll rest easy for now

that cold pool off Newfoundland continues to interest me because the late Jack of Storm Vista fame had an article that was pretty convincing that winters following a cold pool in that area were generally AB snow and BN temps (but I don't have the Article-Will in the NE forum may have it though)

anyway, it's all down hill once 7/4 comes and that'll be here before you know it

[Bob Chill]

agree on the gist of this Bob and have been thinking the same weenie thoughts wrt the PAC SSTA

the CFS doesn't look that great for a -NAO, but looking at the CFS forecast last year at this time (1st 10 days of June) you never would have thought we would have had a chance at what we got last year so I'll rest easy for now

that cold pool off Newfoundland continues to interest me because the late Jack of Storm Vista fame had an article that was pretty convincing that winters following a cold pool in that area were generally AB snow and BN temps (but I don't have the Article-Will in the NE forum may have it though)

anyway, it's all down hill once 7/4 comes and that'll be here before you know it

At this lead there's no reason to not be optimistic about the upcoming winter. Even the crappier recent nino's like 04-05 and 06-07 blow away 11-12 and 12-13. We just had a kick ass winter. If we edge climo this winter I'll be satisfied. Would be nice to get an old fashioned NC-ME nesis. AMWX could sure use it. We need a unifying storm.

[AlaskaETC]

Hoping for record breaking cold and snow, as always.

[T. August]

I want a region-wide 2-footer. Or 3. At that point it really doesn't matter...

[uncle W]

it looks like 2014 had the highest rise in mei from mar/apr to apr/may period...

year...APR/MAY MEI/ increase

1957...+0.901.....+0.550

1965...+0.521.....+0.419

1972...+0.478.....+0.683

1982...+0.445.....+0.407

1986...+0.488.....+0.322

1993...+1.992.....+0.692

1997...+1.121.....+0.624

2000...+0.188.....+0.709

2002...+0.801.....+0.459

2012...+0.730.....+0.669

2014...+0.932.....+0.780

[Bob Chill]

I wanted to add some charts to my thoughts. 

 

Here's the current sst anoms;

 

 

 

Same time in 2002

 

 

 

Same time in 2009

 

 

Both 02 & 09 had above normal sst's in the ne pac in June. 

 

Going forward to the beginning of Dec of 02 & 09 you can see the difference. 02 hung on to AN near the coast while 09 basically collapsed into BN throughout the region

 

Dec 02

 

 

 

Dec 09

 

 

 

I'm not sure how much of an affect on N pac and W conus circulation patterns there was in those 2 winters but the overall h5 patterns were quite different on the whole for the Dec-Feb period.

 

You can see in 02 that there was a more amplified pattern with ridging in the west and epo region. There was a -ao/nao combo on the means but it wasn't nearly as intense as 09-10. 

 

 

Winter of 02-03

 

 

 

Winter of 09-10

 

 

 

These are just simple observations and conclusions can't be drawn from them. There are many additional factors in play as to how a nino can shake out. Terrible things can happen like a gulf of alaska vortex with no blocking and the whole country is flooded with Pac air. There is no reason to think that can't happen (among other things). But if the +sst anoms in the gulf of alaska carve out some real estate it can certainly help avoid that. Just one of many features to keep an eye on as we move into fall. 

 

[Bob Chill]

Nino still nothing special but there's a good bit of time for that to turn around. NE pac warm pool actually intensified over the last 2 week. I could live with a mod nino/-epo winter....lol

 

2 week animation:

 

[SNO]

Bastardi is hyping 02-03, 09-10 type winter and if you trust the Jamstec there is support.  IMHO...too early to make call...all the players have not been identified...yet.