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Winter 2014-2015 Thread


Ji

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OSPO site hasn't updated since the 6th but some of the other sites look like 3.4 is neutral now with even a cool anomaly showing up. OTOH- PDO region is looking great. Seems like the state of the PDO is going to have more weight than enso unless things start changing pretty quick. The nino chase this year is kinda comical. It was like chasing the big pattern change that was always 10+ days away.

I personally doubt an official nino classification this year at this point. Virtually nothing has broke our way since June. Might be time to toss the towel.

If one doesn't develop this winter it will break a record for longest streaks between winter Nino's, going back to 1950. I agree, it's not looking good.

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OSPO site hasn't updated since the 6th but some of the other sites look like 3.4 is neutral now with even a cool anomaly showing up. OTOH- PDO region is looking great. Seems like the state of the PDO is going to have more weight than enso unless things start changing pretty quick. The nino chase this year is kinda comical. It was like chasing the big pattern change that was always 10+ days away.

I personally doubt an official nino classification this year at this point. Virtually nothing has broke our way since June. Might be time to toss the towel.

I'm just waiting on somebody to cancel winter. Anybody? We need to get the count started.

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CPC from their ENSO diagnostic discussion from yesterday-

 

Most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015. The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 - January 2015 season. This El Niño will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 0.9oC) throughout its duration. In summary, El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015..

 

Based on all current guidance and expert analysis, sounds to me like there is only a 33% chance we wont see a weak El Nino. ;)

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El Nino prediction has been piss poor lately from the experts so not sure they know what they are talking about. 

 

 

The lack of atmospheric response in the summer to the downwelling kelvin waves had pretty devastating impacts on early predictions.

 

I thought it was silly for people to be throwing out such robust predictions in late April/May before we get through the "spring barrier", huge kelvin wave or not....but even with that said, this has crapped the bed pretty bad from June. It looked like it would be difficult to avoid at least a moderate Nino at that point...but nobody really thought the easterly trades would look like a La Nina for a few weeks in the middle of summer. It is probably an important lesson learned...don't assume the atmosphere is just going to respond until it is obvious that it will.

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I didn't think many people around here have been touting a cold snowy winter. I sure haven't. If anything, this thread has been pretty level headed for months unless I'm missing something.

Its about as level here as I have seen anywhere. Stands in stark contrast to just about every winter outlook that has been released thus far, most of which look ridiculously weenie-ish with the calls for severe cold and big snow for the east coast.

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Its about as level here as I have seen anywhere. Stands in stark contrast to just about every winter outlook that has been released thus far, most of which look ridiculously weenie-ish with the calls for severe cold and big snow for the east coast.

Agree....I'm going -1 to +1 with 25% to 175% of normal snow ;)

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Really if people are tossing winter over the lack of a nino it's pretty clear they were asleep from December 8th 2013 to March 30th 2014.

Last winter was a bit fluky, but we arent getting a moderate Nino and there isn't much difference between a warm neutral and a weak nino as far as sensible weather. I am more focused on the AO and NAO at this point. Hopefully we have persistence on the he Pacific side.

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FWIW, JB isn't worried about the decaying El Nino. He's still saying weak-moderate, but I think the moderate is completely out of the question.

 

He also said he may have to make his forecast colder. It's currently 3 degrees below normal for the MA, so I don't know how much colder it can get lol.

The -23 QBO is starting to have an effect on the atmosphere. The aleutian ridge/goa trough shown on the models is not really a good sign. I'm not really sure who here still takes JB seriously. I think the odds of a nino now are about 50/50. Even the weenie-ish cfs is caving on the enso.

 

That said, I still think we see a winter with some decent periods. I'm with Chill on the idea that there may be good periods and bad periods this winter. All it takes is one good setup to yield an area-wide 10"+ event and a memorable winter.

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Neutral enso (warm or cool) can still have an active southern stream. We had one last year at times and conditions in the enso region were nina'ish. I think 03-04 had one at times but I can't remember it clearly enough so I'm not sure.

The problem with trying to get a handle on an active SS at this lead with enso neutral conditions is that it can't really be forecast with much accuracy without the typical primary driver in place or likely to be in place. Uncertainty abounds.

November can be a good month for seeing some simple clues in NA. When I lived in CO, early season snows were usually divided in the state. When the southern Rockies started getting the big storms leading into turkey day I knew the area I lived in was in trouble for a while. Nino's or years with an early southern storm track were painful for the northern Rockies during the first half of the season. The southern track was typically persistent through Jan.

I'll be keeping a close eye on the 4 corners region in a few weeks. It can be an easy way to get some clues as we approach Dec.

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Andrew of The Weather Centre has released his winter forecast. He says get ready for cold and dry in the east. Basically says average snow and very cold, with possibility of a "big storm". For anyone interested in the details and his rationale...

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/10/official-2014-2015-winter-forecast.html

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Andrew of The Weather Centre has released his winter forecast. He says get ready for cold and dry in the east. Basically says average snow and very cold, with possibility of a "big storm". For anyone interested in the details and his rationale...

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/10/official-2014-2015-winter-forecast.html

 

Better than his earlier forecast. I'll take it. I have no problem rolling the dice with a favorable condition set up...

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Better than his earlier forecast. I'll take it. I have no problem rolling the dice with a favorable condition set up...

I think the sub jet will go too work this winter? he is too dry in the se ,If the nao stays neg this winter this forcast will be a fail just saying ?A warm neutral or a weak elnino will make it's mark on the eastern half this winter !

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I think the sub jet will go too work this winter? he is too dry in the se ,If the nao stays neg this winter this forcast will be a fail just saying ?A warm neutral or a weak elnino will make it's mark on the eastern half this winter !

I didnt think the precip portion  of his forecast made much sense either...+PNA, -AO, EPO ridge and -NAO at times, along with his expectation for a weak to moderate Nino...should mean wetter in the SE and up the coast and translate to above average snow.

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Andrew of The Weather Centre has released his winter forecast. He says get ready for cold and dry in the east. Basically says average snow and very cold, with possibility of a "big storm". For anyone interested in the details and his rationale...

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/10/official-2014-2015-winter-forecast.html

Definitely disagree with his analog selections. Some of those years are just baffling to me, but I wish him good luck. I'd take my chances with a pattern like that.

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