T. August Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Seasonal Euro is painting a pretty nice picture for Jan - Mar. Don't look at Dec though. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-model-update-into-the-winter/35382077 It does look nice. I just hope his interpretation was correct lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 It does look nice. I just hope his interpretation was correct lol. i'm sure it is, it's not hard to interpret. He just can't legally show the exact images, so he has to make his own "approximate" maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 i'm sure it is, it's not hard to interpret. He just can't legally show the exact images, so he has to make his own "approximate" maps. Yeah, I know. I actually kinda like the airbrush style of the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 December doesn't look that bad... I'd much rather a front-loaded winter - or a January bookended by good a December and February - but having a good long-range look like this one is never a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 December doesn't look that bad... Not a lot of snow falls around these parts in mild decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I'd much rather a front-loaded winter - or a January bookended by good a December and February - but having a good long-range look like this one is never a bad thing. Absolutely. I want the snow when we have the lowest sun-angle to help keep it around. I'll take a BN Feb for sure, but by mid-Feb the temp doesn't even matter any more... if the sun is out, the snow is gone. I'd gladly cede Feb and Mar for a solid Dec - Jan. No sense lamenting the model, though. Overall, it is good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Not a lot of snow falls around these parts in mild decembers. I hate to use MBY as an example, but even though last December was above average, I still managed to get around 8.5". So I guess if we get above normal precip anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 This winter has all the makings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 This winter has all the makings .......................... .....................of being cancelled about 25 times before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I hate to use MBY as an example, but even though last December was above average, I still managed to get around 8.5". So I guess if we get above normal precip anything can happen. Yeah, but last Dec was only above avg due to the streak of July weather right before Christmas. And last winter was a bit of an aberration as a whole anyway. But, like you and mitch said, if we get enough opportunities in Dec, even if it's mild overall, we may get lucky on one or two of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Dec was not good for the I-95 folks though. You guys N & W have a much larger margin for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Can somebody give me a link where I can plot partial month anomalies for temp and precip in past years. Thanks to anyone who can hook me up. The link I have will allow me to do full months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Can somebody give me a link where I can plot partial month anomalies for temp and precip in past years. Thanks to anyone who can hook me up. The link I have will allow me to do full months. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/ This? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 [url=http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/]http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/ This? Thanks. Any idea on how to create those US maps that show anomalies and be able to do it for a range of only days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Thanks. Any idea on how to create those US maps that show anomalies and be able to do it for a range of only days? Range of days for maps like this? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ Do you want 500mb maps or temp/precip maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Range of days for maps like this? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ Do you want 500mb maps or temp/precip maps? That's what I have. Is there a way to do something like first 10 days of October for a given year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 That's what I have. Is there a way to do something like first 10 days of October for a given year? I don't have the link in front of me but just google esrl daily climate composites. Should be first link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I don't have the link in front of me but just google esrl daily climate composites. Should be first link. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/ This? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I tried that link but all I could get was temp, not anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I tried that link but all I could get was temp, not anomaly. You have to click on the bubble that says "anomaly", in the subgroup "plot type". Here's a screenshot, 850mb temp anomaly for 1/23/14: Then press create plot, and you get this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 You have to click on the bubble that says "anomaly", in the subgroup "plot type". Here's a screenshot, 850mb temp anomaly for 1/23/14: Then press create plot, and you get this: Thanks, will try again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Latest euro weeklies are unimpressive to close the month and start Nov. Not really a strong signal or anything but lowest heights out west and slight ridging east late in the run. Aleutian low not there. GOA will continue to cool off if the run has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Latest euro weeklies are unimpressive to close the month and start Nov. Not really a strong signal or anything but lowest heights out west and slight ridging east late in the run. Aleutian low not there. GOA will continue to cool off if the run has the right idea. Is there an unwanted Ridge in its place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Is there an unwanted Ridge in its place? Yea kinda. Weeklies are pretty smooth d15-30 so nothing is ever pronounced but yes, there is ridging building in that region the last week of the month an beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Not surprising IMO with the tropical forcings reflecting an east-based Niño regimen for the next 20-25 days & PVA displacement into Eurasia...almost a December 2012-like pattern. Underlying forcing is primarily EPAC-sourced from now until mid-late November, so the pattern over the lower 48 will probably take on the classic Nino look w/ the warmth centered over the North-Central US, GOA trough, and weak negatives over the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 45 Year High on snow in North America! http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/all-time-record-north-america-snow-cover-hits-45-year-high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Yea kinda. Weeklies are pretty smooth d15-30 so nothing is ever pronounced but yes, there is ridging building in that region the last week of the month an beyond. next month is fine it sounds like we should finish the month with a trough in the means this looks crazy good....hope it works out as advertised http://app.til.it/opi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Nino looks awful...to be honest, I don't think we've had a nino when it looked this bad so late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Nino looks awful...to be honest, I don't think we've had a nino when it looked this bad so late. I was surprised to see the outlook still saying one was likely by the EOY. Bad forecasting on that so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Nino looks awful...to be honest, I don't think we've had a nino when it looked this bad so late.OSPO site hasn't updated since the 6th but some of the other sites look like 3.4 is neutral now with even a cool anomaly showing up. OTOH- PDO region is looking great. Seems like the state of the PDO is going to have more weight than enso unless things start changing pretty quick. The nino chase this year is kinda comical. It was like chasing the big pattern change that was always 10+ days away. I personally doubt an official nino classification this year at this point. Virtually nothing has broke our way since June. Might be time to toss the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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