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Winter 2014-2015 Thread


Ji

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I'd much rather a front-loaded winter - or a January bookended by good a December and February - but having a good long-range look like this one is never a bad thing.

 

Absolutely.  I want the snow when we have the lowest sun-angle to help keep it around. I'll take a BN Feb for sure, but by mid-Feb the temp doesn't even matter any more... if the sun is out, the snow is gone.  I'd gladly cede Feb and Mar for a solid Dec - Jan.

 

No sense lamenting the model, though.  Overall, it is good news.

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I hate to use MBY as an example, but even though last December was above average, I still managed to get around 8.5". So I guess if we get above normal precip anything can happen.

 

Yeah, but last Dec was only above avg due to the streak of July weather right before Christmas.  And last winter was a bit of an aberration as a whole anyway.

 

But, like you and mitch said, if we get enough opportunities in Dec, even if it's mild overall, we may get lucky on one or two of them. 

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Latest euro weeklies are unimpressive to close the month and start Nov. Not really a strong signal or anything but lowest heights out west and slight ridging east late in the run. Aleutian low not there. GOA will continue to cool off if the run has the right idea.

Is there an unwanted Ridge in its place?

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Not surprising IMO with the tropical forcings reflecting an east-based Niño regimen for the next 20-25 days & PVA displacement into Eurasia...almost a December 2012-like pattern. Underlying forcing is primarily EPAC-sourced from now until mid-late November, so the pattern over the lower 48 will probably take on the classic Nino look w/ the warmth centered over the North-Central US, GOA trough, and weak negatives over the SE US.

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Nino looks awful...to be honest, I don't think we've had a nino when it looked this bad so late.

OSPO site hasn't updated since the 6th but some of the other sites look like 3.4 is neutral now with even a cool anomaly showing up. OTOH- PDO region is looking great. Seems like the state of the PDO is going to have more weight than enso unless things start changing pretty quick. The nino chase this year is kinda comical. It was like chasing the big pattern change that was always 10+ days away.

I personally doubt an official nino classification this year at this point. Virtually nothing has broke our way since June. Might be time to toss the towel.

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