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Winter 2014-2015 Thread


Ji

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I kinda questioned the retrograding look on the means. It's been steady progressive in the npac and conus. As time moves forward what appeared to be regression is looking like the opposite.

Just a few days ago it looked like consensus for ridging in the east with the pna dropping. That is look is changing.

I think the ensembles are having a tough time with a volatile lw circ. Just look at the forecasts for all the indices over the next 2 weeks. Pretty choppy. Now prob isn't a good time to bite on anything in the lr.

I'm not concerned about anything going on until persistence shows in reality and not the models.

and when did you stop being a weenie and why wasn't I told?   :huh:

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and when did you stop being a weenie and why wasn't I told? :huh:

It weird. I'm different now with how I view things. Unless early signals are pointing strongly in one direction or another, I just can't get worked up about anything until it stares me in the face.

Honestly, I had a ton of fun last year but my favorite times were medium/short lead dissection of threats with the mets and good armchair hobbyists. Matt and I really drilled into a couple events irt temps, timing, and upside/downside potential. That S is really fun and I'm looking really forward to the first legit threat . Speculating at 2-3 month leads is nothing more than passing time.

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03-04 is still looking like the best enso match and most similar year I can find irt npac ssta's at this point. 

 

 

I took a look back at the other Octs with big -ao events. I don't think what's forecast for this month is a big signal unless there is some sort of persistence to it. It could just be a hit and run. Ensembles all show the duration to be less than 2 weeks and then return to more neutral conditions. Some signs of it going to postive but things are pretty volatile and active with the nh lw pattern right now. I find this interesting in itself.

 

02,09, and 79 had big blocking events in Oct but they were also persistent. I personally don't view a persistent -ao in oct/nov as a good thing anyways. There are exceptions of course but a typical pronounced -ao cycle in fall/winter usually runs 45-60 days. 79's event flipped at a terrible time...Dec...

 

02 was front loaded but the overall -ao regime was over by mid-late Jan. Nov was a persistent -ao month that winter. 

 

09 started perfectly in early December and went door to door. 

 

Looking at the states and forecasts for the ao/nao/pna right now paints an active picture for a while. Could this winter be another volatile one with good and bad patterns showing up every couple weeks? Or will there be more dominance (either good or bad)? Just a  total wag but I'm starting to lean towards more volatile. If persistence shows up when it matters then we'll know a lot more. 

 

Here's the Oct 03 AO index.

 

attachicon.gifOct03ao.GIF

 

 

This month could end up looking pretty similar. Probably doesn't mean much if anything but worth considering. I'd take a  version of 03-04 with no complaints. I'd take my chances with that type of pattern again. Jan/Feb were decent irt to the atl. This chips didn't fall our way enough. Which is kinda typical when you think about it. lol

 

 

I strongly suspect the Nino of 02-03 had a role in the outcome in 03-04. Thus i would use extreme caution using such a analog.

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I strongly suspect the Nino of 02-03 had a role in the outcome in 03-04. Thus i would use extreme caution using such a analog.

I'm just looking at bits and pieces. There is no strong analog. However, last year behaved nino'ish at times and the ss was active. I would discount 03-04 much more if last year was cold enso. It was cool neutral for a time but I'm not sure that was a driver of the pattern. Blending 03-04 & 04-05 isn't outlandish at this lead.

Warm neutrals and weak nino's seem to generally have consistency with at least one or more decent -ao periods in djf.

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The AO is tanking to record levels..If October's AO comes in below -1.000 it will be in line with these winters...

1960-61...1966-67...1968-69...1974-75...1979-80...1981-82...2002-03...2006-07...2009-10...2012-13...1979 scares me but the mid Atlantic did well that year I think?...Dec. 79 was mild but Jan/Feb 1980 were near average or below...March was below also......some good analogs and some duds...TWT if the index comes in that low but it's off to a good start...

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The AO is tanking to record levels..If October's AO comes in below -1.000 it will be in line with these winters...

1960-61...1966-67...1968-69...1974-75...1979-80...1981-82...2002-03...2006-07...2009-10...2012-13...1979 scares me but the mid Atlantic did well that year I think?...Dec. 79 was mild but Jan/Feb 1980 were near average or below...March was below also......some good analogs and some duds...TWT if the index comes in that low but it's off to a good start...

 

There was a major snowstorm in the Mid-Atlantic in February 1979... it was the 18th to the 19th... Baltimore received 20 inches of snow while DC got 18.7 inches

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It was October 1979...winter of 79-80...

1979-1980 certainly wasn't a blockbuster but it was certainly not a dud either. 20.1" at DCA and 26.8" at IAD. I'm not quite sure who has their expectations so high they wouldn't take this in a heartbeat.

 

I figure 20" at DCA and 26" at IAD would work out to 24-25" IMBY, about 120% climo.

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The AO is tanking to record levels..If October's AO comes in below -1.000 it will be in line with these winters...

1960-61...1966-67...1968-69...1974-75...1979-80...1981-82...2002-03...2006-07...2009-10...2012-13...1979 scares me but the mid Atlantic did well that year I think?...Dec. 79 was mild but Jan/Feb 1980 were near average or below...March was below also......some good analogs and some duds...TWT if the index comes in that low but it's off to a good start...

I think more importantly the OPI is coming in below -2. We'll see how the rest of the month shakes out but nothing correlates more strongly with the AO than the OPI.

 

http://app.til.it/opi/

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1979-1980 certainly wasn't a blockbuster but it was certainly not a dud either. 20.1" at DCA and 26.8" at IAD. I'm not quite sure who has their expectations so high they wouldn't take this in a heartbeat.

Yes, and as has been stated by me before, it was a lot better south of there, 30+ for LYN, ROA. Dec was a dud as it was warm and pretty dry, but once calendar flipped so did the weather.

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It weird. I'm different now with how I view things. Unless early signals are pointing strongly in one direction or another, I just can't get worked up about anything until it stares me in the face.

Honestly, I had a ton of fun last year but my favorite times were medium/short lead dissection of threats with the mets and good armchair hobbyists. Matt and I really drilled into a couple events irt temps, timing, and upside/downside potential. That S is really fun and I'm looking really forward to the first legit threat . Speculating at 2-3 month leads is nothing more than passing time.

well, I sorta like this time of year because anticipation is in the air and everybody has an equal chance

last year was so great because at this time, it had seemingly nothing going for it

this year has mixed signals so far....regardless of what WinterWXLuvr  says ( :P), I'd still like to see at least 1 lr model looking cold and snowy, more for the same reason we all love to see snow storms on the 8-12 day GFS

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that was meh for BWI, around normal, but AN down at DCA/IAD

RIC, CHO, and ORF did very well, especially with a huge blizzard 3/1/80, the night of the ACC basketball finals that MD blew

But would you take your chances with a similar 79-80 pattern? I sure would.

I'm done with focusing on analog year snow totals. They carry less meaning then lw patterns. The timing of shortwaves in a favorable pattern determine snow. That can't be carbon copied ever.

The real question we face this year is are we facing a dominant hostile pattern that sucks for snow?

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But would you take your chances with a similar 79-80 pattern? I sure would.

I'm done with focusing on analog year snow totals. They carry less meaning then lw patterns. The timing of shortwaves in a favorable pattern determine snow. That can't be carbon copied ever.

The real question we face this year is are we facing a dominant hostile pattern that sucks for snow?

in my feeble mind, we'll never get a pattern similar enough to any other year so I really have no opinion on it

I want a pattern with a lot of chances and enough hits to give me AN snow, preferably 30"+

is that too much to ask? (please, no one answer that question until 4/1/15)

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1) Since 1950 for the AO, only 56% of Octobers had the same sign as the subsequent DJF averaged. So, the correlation between October and DJF is weak at best per this table;

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

 

2) 63% of DJF's averaged a -AO also, 63% of Nino DJF's averaged a -AO. So, an average DJF AO is very likely a small negative.

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But would you take your chances with a similar 79-80 pattern? I sure would.

I'm done with focusing on analog year snow totals. They carry less meaning then lw patterns. The timing of shortwaves in a favorable pattern determine snow. That can't be carbon copied ever.

The real question we face this year is are we facing a dominant hostile pattern that sucks for snow?

 

This is a really good post, Bob...especially the highlighted portion.

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New Euro seasonal looks pretty good. Seems like it's hitting EC storm track and a perhaps BN look for winter.

 

 

Yeah if we got that longwave pattern...it would probably be a very weenieish winter. Cold and definitely a snowy look.

 

Of course, snowy up there doesn't necessarily mean snowy down here, but still...

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NPAC SSTs are more a product of the pattern and not necessarily a pattern driver. If ridging were to develop in the NE PAC, it will be because of the pattern...not because water temps went from 44F-47F.

 

This is a really important post. Appreciate it.  I don't think many people realize that the GOA was cold this time last year. 

 

anomnight.10.7.2013.gif

 

 

 

It really didn't start to look anomalous until late December. I totally agree about the region being more of a byproduct of the pattern vs a driver. I suppose once things are ripe it could potentially feedback into persistence but I'll defer there. 

 

Watching the npac sst config evolve is a pretty good tool for finding clues about persistence. Right now the npac in general has been under assault with storms and BN temps. Running the loop for the last 6 weeks is very telling. The region in general will almost certainly continue to cool for at least another week and then it looks like the GOA will continue beyond that. 

 

All of this is fine in my book. At the very least, the clues I'm seeing right now support the possibility of a +pdo during the start of winter. Mixed signals on the ensembles down the line irt the aleutian low showing as strong signal on the monthly mean. Even if it does because we are off to such a strong start, if it starts getting erased because of stubborn ridging in the same area  later this month it would be a net negative in the grand scheme.

 

Hard to get worked up about anything imo right now considering it's only October. There is nothing hostile staring at any of us in the East. Hopefully it stays that way. 

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