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Winter 2014-2015 Thread


Ji

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the northern hemisphere oceans are really cooling...I have, of course, no idea what it means for our winter, but everything is getting cold like I do not recall ever happening

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif

 

I think there's an issue with that map, as the latest SST maps that I have seen as of yesterday still have large areas of warmer than normal water. With that being said though, I think that the NE Pacific is going to take quite a beating and will probably turn negative in spots as the Euro has been going towards a large storm forming over the area within the next 10 days of it's forecast. 

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03-04 is still looking like the best enso match and most similar year I can find irt npac ssta's at this point. 

 

 

I took a look back at the other Octs with big -ao events. I don't think what's forecast for this month is a big signal unless there is some sort of persistence to it. It could just be a hit and run. Ensembles all show the duration to be less than 2 weeks and then return to more neutral conditions. Some signs of it going to postive but things are pretty volatile and active with the nh lw pattern right now. I find this interesting in itself.

 

02,09, and 79 had big blocking events in Oct but they were also persistent. I personally don't view a persistent -ao in oct/nov as a good thing anyways. There are exceptions of course but a typical pronounced -ao cycle in fall/winter usually runs 45-60 days. 79's event flipped at a terrible time...Dec...

 

02 was front loaded but the overall -ao regime was over by mid-late Jan. Nov was a persistent -ao month that winter. 

 

09 started perfectly in early December and went door to door. 

 

Looking at the states and forecasts for the ao/nao/pna right now paints an active picture for a while. Could this winter be another volatile one with good and bad patterns showing up every couple weeks? Or will there be more dominance (either good or bad)? Just a  total wag but I'm starting to lean towards more volatile. If persistence shows up when it matters then we'll know a lot more. 

 

Here's the Oct 03 AO index.

 

post-2035-0-77469400-1412606755_thumb.gi

 

 

This month could end up looking pretty similar. Probably doesn't mean much if anything but worth considering. I'd take a  version of 03-04 with no complaints. I'd take my chances with that type of pattern again. Jan/Feb were decent irt to the atl. This chips didn't fall our way enough. Which is kinda typical when you think about it. lol

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This month could end up looking pretty similar. Probably doesn't mean much if anything but worth considering. I'd take a  version of 03-04 with no complaints. I'd take my chances with that type of pattern again. Jan/Feb were decent irt to the atl. This chips didn't fall our way enough. Which is kinda typical when you think about it. lol

 

 

we were caught between a big winter for central PA and NYC and a big winter for the Carolinas...we struck out in Feb when Carolinas were getting storm after storm..

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we were caught between a big winter for central PA and NYC and a big winter for the Carolinas...we struck out in Feb when Carolinas were getting storm after storm..

 

Exactly. I've been moving away from worrying about past analog snow totals. The last time we had a similar pattern to last year was 93-94. Stark differences in snow totals with only modest differences in the overall DFJM pattern. Next time we see something set up like that again (might be a while) we'll all have high expectations but it can just as easily stink again. 

 

If we have a similar 03-04 djf pattern this year we will have potential. No reason to expect a carbon copy in the snowfall dept. 

 

It took me long enough but I finally divided my thoughts between long wave patterns for potential and simply waiting for short waves to show up at medium leads to start expecting something to actually measure. We do a good job at wasting potential so my expectations at long leads are tempered now. Probably for the best. I'll get more sleep not waiting for the euro when a d6+ threat shows up. At least I'll try to go to sleep...lol

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03-04 is still looking like the best enso match and most similar year I can find irt npac ssta's at this point. 

 

 

I took a look back at the other Octs with big -ao events. I don't think what's forecast for this month is a big signal unless there is some sort of persistence to it. It could just be a hit and run. Ensembles all show the duration to be less than 2 weeks and then return to more neutral conditions. Some signs of it going to postive but things are pretty volatile and active with the nh lw pattern right now. I find this interesting in itself.

 

02,09, and 79 had big blocking events in Oct but they were also persistent. I personally don't view a persistent -ao in oct/nov as a good thing anyways. There are exceptions of course but a typical pronounced -ao cycle in fall/winter usually runs 45-60 days. 79's event flipped at a terrible time...Dec...

 

02 was front loaded but the overall -ao regime was over by mid-late Jan. Nov was a persistent -ao month that winter. 

 

09 started perfectly in early December and went door to door. 

 

Looking at the states and forecasts for the ao/nao/pna right now paints an active picture for a while. Could this winter be another volatile one with good and bad patterns showing up every couple weeks? Or will there be more dominance (either good or bad)? Just a  total wag but I'm starting to lean towards more volatile. If persistence shows up when it matters then we'll know a lot more. 

 

Here's the Oct 03 AO index.

 

attachicon.gifOct03ao.GIF

 

 

This month could end up looking pretty similar. Probably doesn't mean much if anything but worth considering. I'd take a  version of 03-04 with no complaints. I'd take my chances with that type of pattern again. Jan/Feb were decent irt to the atl. This chips didn't fall our way enough. Which is kinda typical when you think about it. lol

Uh..............I wasn't too impressed with January of 2010.  It was an OK winter month, nothing special about it.

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Uh..............I wasn't too impressed with January of 2010.  It was an OK winter month, nothing special about it.

 

I was only speaking about the state of the AO. We waste plenty of "favorable periods" but the more we have during DJF the better. We did have a really nice and cold storm though late in the month. Don't know how much you got but I think I got like 6-7" or something like that. That one storm was more than 25% of my climo. Considering Jan isn't that great of a snow month, it was still a win even with the cold/dry spell. 

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I was only speaking about the state of the AO. We waste plenty of "favorable periods" but the more we have during DJF the better. We did have a really nice and cold storm though late in the month. Don't know how much you got but I think I got like 6-7" or something like that. 

Yeah, the storm at the end of the month was nice.  I love a good cold, storm.  True winter weather, and shoveling is a breeze.

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well, that's surprising based on those maps

Coastalwx over in the NE forum said the Eurosips are not bad for the east coast

in any event, I guess my bubble is officially popped now

I'm gunna' have to catch a few squirrels now and interrogate them...anybody know if they speak Baltimoreeze?

 

The Euro sips uses a few different long range models like the CFS etc. It's a super ensemble like Millwx said. I don't look at 2m temps since they usually do not make sense given the pattern they predict many times. Strictly looking from a 500mb height perspective, they had an overall 500mb trough south of the eastern Aleutians and a ridge into NW Canada with slightly heigher anomalies extending into the northern Plains. Near neutral 500mb height anomalies over the srn US and up the EC which may say something about storm track? In any case, I had no issues with that pattern as progged. The seasonal models should not be taken to heart, but the October runs probably will start to have a bigger weight now that we are closing in. The euro seasonal model doesn't come out until the 8th of the month and the sips comes out one week after that. Any recent comments about the models were based from the Sept run.

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I was only speaking about the state of the AO. We waste plenty of "favorable periods" but the more we have during DJF the better. We did have a really nice and cold storm though late in the month. Don't know how much you got but I think I got like 6-7" or something like that. That one storm was more than 25% of my climo. Considering Jan isn't that great of a snow month, it was still a win even with the cold/dry spell. 

 

I'm not particularly jazzed about the big aleutian ridge the models are forecasting nor that the MEI is now 0.5

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I'm not particularly jazzed about the big aleutian ridge the models are forecasting nor that the MEI is now 0.5

 

Yea, it's not something you want to see but I'm not too worried about it tbh. It's an interesting time across the regions of the globe we follow. Parts are really moving around and the forecast for the numerical indices show it pretty starkly. They are all on the move up and down. 

 

It doesn't surprise me to see the ridge pop in the wake of the very strong ull preceding it. Ensembles are holding the look though. My wag is it's temporary and well see another low/trough move into the area before the month is out. If it keeps oscillating through Nov then the muddy look for the start of winter continues. 

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RTG high resolution

 

 

Weatherguy701,

 So, the map you displayed is clearly sugesting that the loop Mitch showed with cooling northern latitude SST anomalies is way out to lunch:

 

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif

 

 I'm wondering if that loop could have somehow mistakingly been showing actual temp.'s rather than anomalies since actuals would be cooling off quite a bit.

 I don't know what SST maps to trust these days.

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Using the NOAA site 6-month animation, there definitely has been cooling in the same areas shown on the Unisys site, but the Unisys normal SST numbers must be screwed up in their program to show anomalies like they do, but that's just a guess. In the past, Unisys has always been close to all the other SSTA maps. Hopefully, they'll get it fixed. Sorry Weatherguy701, I didn't mean to make you have a cat with that Unisys link.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html

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Using the NOAA site 6-month animation, there definitely has been cooling in the same areas shown on the Unisys site, but the Unisys normal SST numbers must be screwed up in their program to show anomalies like they do, but that's just a guess. In the past, Unisys has always been close to all the other SSTA maps. Hopefully, they'll get it fixed. Sorry Weatherguy701, I didn't mean to make you have a cat with that Unisys link.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html

 

The GOA region has been on a steady decline since the beginning of Sept and looks to continue and possibly accelerate if the ensembles verify. Right now the + anomalies aren't all that impressive at it is. The EPO weenie panic index may be on the rise shortly. 

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The GOA region has been on a steady decline since the beginning of Sept and looks to continue and possibly accelerate if the ensembles verify. Right now the + anomalies aren't all that impressive at it is. The EPO weenie panic index may be on the rise shortly. 

Atlantic is cooling too. Don't know how that will help/hurt wrt NAO. Gunna be a tough couple of months for weenies until it all shakes out. 

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The GOA/NE PAC will cool quite a bit with the troughing that has been consistently shown on the Euro. The 00z Euro ensembles from last night do retrograde the lower heights back to the west by Oct 20th or so. If they end up being right, and that's a big "if" I could see more of a classic +PDO look showing up eventually but in the near/medium range, I'd expect the SST's to cool quite a bit as the T850 on the ensemble from last night was hovering at -4 below normal for a few days.

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I'm not particularly jazzed about the big aleutian ridge the models are forecasting nor that the MEI is now 0.5

 

12z euro ens took a nice step away from the aleutian ridge idea. It's still there just pretty flat and signs of lower heights coming back towards the end of the run. Members must be pretty equally mixed between ridge/trough placement on this run.  Looks pretty active in the npac for a while so I expect ensembles to jump around in the d8+ range.

 

I'm not going to worry about long lead stuff. Next 5-7 days look good. I'll start worrying once a hostile pattern sets up.  

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12z euro ens took a nice step away from the aleutian ridge idea. It's still there just pretty flat and signs of lower heights coming back towards the end of the run. Members must be pretty equally mixed between ridge/trough placement on this run.  Looks pretty active in the npac for a while so I expect ensembles to jump around in the d8+ range.

 

I'm not going to worry about long lead stuff. Next 5-7 days look good. I'll start worrying once a hostile pattern sets up.  

I don't see the Euro ensembles, but 12z GEFS also looked pretty transient with the big Aleutian ridge.  1st 12 days of the month will set up a nice negative anomaly there that will be hard to erase in the means. 

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I don't see the Euro ensembles, but 12z GEFS also looked pretty transient with the big Aleutian ridge.  1st 12 days of the month will set up a nice negative anomaly there that will be hard to erase in the means. 

this site has the Euro ensembles for free; not detailed but not bad considering the price

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=24&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=

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Its early October. Not too concerned about modeled Aleutian ridges which may not even materialize. If we are going to have a weak Nino, which still looks like a decent bet, we better get cooperation on the Atlantic side. Last thing I want to see is a persistent +NAO in a Nino winter. The only thing I am interested in monitoring at this juncture is the snow coverage over N Canada and Eurasia, and how rapidly it progresses over the next few weeks. There does seem to be some correlation there to the AO/NAO, and ts kinda cool to track  the increase in snow cover. Otherwise I will just track rate of acorn hoardage by squirrels.

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Its early October. Not too concerned about modeled Aleutian ridges which may not even materialize. If we are going to have a weak Nino, which still looks like a decent bet, we better get cooperation on the Atlantic side. Last thing I want to see is a persistent +NAO in a Nino winter. The only thing I am interested in monitoring at this juncture is the snow coverage over N Canada and Eurasia, and how rapidly it progresses over the next few weeks. There does seem to be some correlation there to the AO/NAO, and ts kinda cool to track  the increase in snow cover. Otherwise I will just track rate of acorn hoardage by squirrels.

 

we don't want to see a aleutian ridge as an ongoing October feature if we want blocking this winter.....and nino is not looking healthy...weak is far from a lock...

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So are we ready to cancel winter yet? Aleutian ridging on day 8 of the ensembles automatically means we are doomed for another 97-98 redux.

 

Anyway, first snowfall is in just 25 days. Get ready.

no...what matters is the trough in the means for the entire month of October

the first half of the month will likely show a strong trough, just what we want

the chances of a ridge wiping that out are not great

why am I so cocky? because that's what Will and Coastalwx said in the NE winter thread earlier today     ;)

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no...what matters is the trough in the means for the entire month of October

the first half of the month will likely show a strong trough, just what we want

the chances of a ridge wiping that out are not great

why am I so cocky? because that's what Will and Coastalwx said in the NE winter thread earlier today     ;)

Euro and GEFS both show a couple days of strong ridging there and then pretty flat after that.  Looks fine right now I think. 

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Euro and GEFS both show a couple days of strong ridging there and then pretty flat after that. Looks fine right now I think.

I kinda questioned the retrograding look on the means. It's been steady progressive in the npac and conus. As time moves forward what appeared to be regression is looking like the opposite.

Just a few days ago it looked like consensus for ridging in the east with the pna dropping. That is look is changing.

I think the ensembles are having a tough time with a volatile lw circ. Just look at the forecasts for all the indices over the next 2 weeks. Pretty choppy. Now prob isn't a good time to bite on anything in the lr.

I'm not concerned about anything going on until persistence shows in reality and not the models.

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I kinda questioned the retrograding look on the means. It's been steady progressive in the npac and conus. As time moves forward what appeared to be regression is looking like the opposite.

Just a few days ago it looked like consensus for ridging in the east with the pna dropping. That is look is changing.

I think the ensembles are having a tough time with a volatile lw circ. Just look at the forecasts for all the indices over the next 2 weeks. Pretty choppy. Now prob isn't a good time to bite on anything in the lr.

I'm not concerned about anything going on until persistence shows in reality and not the models.

Not to mention the recurving typhoons in the WPAC. 

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