Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[millwx]

If I'm reading these maps correctly, I think were about to see a spike in ENSO temps as has been advertised by the CFS2 and other models.

This is the 5 day average of winds and sea surface Anomalies (bottom map) as of 10/2. Look at the warmth just west of the dateline (180) AND look at the wind direction over those warmer waters (westerly), which is what raises the temps in the NINO (for those who may not already know.)

Now look at this map. 5 Day winds, again putting attention toward the dateline. See how the colors in the Anomaly map (bottom) are bright yellow to the first level of yellow/brown. Yellow signifies westerly winds, with yellow/brown stronger winds. I recall around this time in 09' that area was into the brown/orange color and instead of level 3 as this Anomaly map shows, it was 8 if memory serves. Anyway, we obviously aren't getting to the 09' NINO, but this is the first time this map has been solidly yellow this late summer/fall, and I've been watching it waiting for the yellows to show up. In short, reality is now suggesting the spike in fall temps in ENSO 3.4 "looks" to be starting. To which I say "...Good luck. We're all counting on you."

Here's the link to the CFS2 map and the spike I mentioned.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

To be clear, the yellow and yellow-brown on the wind anomaly map do NOT mean westerly winds. They are anomalies. Normal winds are easterly. So, up to a certain point, those winds are just weaker easterlies. Not westerlies. And you'd like to see them further east. So, for my liking, there's nothing impressive there. Nonetheless, I still think we'll end up with a +0.8 to +1.1 for the winter.

[millwx]

Interesting discussion on the QBO. But it is one index that I can ever seem to wrap my head around. Its kinda nebulous. Really positive values SEEM to indicate suppression of north Atlantic blocking. We apparently saw that last winter. Now the QBO is extremely negative. So what does it mean? Where do we go from here....warming in the stratosphere? Effect on the PV? Could it end up contributing to a Pacific Fire hose? The QBO sucked (consistently positive last winter) and we still pretty much had wall to wall cold, because other parameters (PDO, EPO, PNA) overwhelmed. I tend to agree with Millwx- on its own the QBO is not a really great tool.

Nice that that you agree with me, but I'm not trying to make this "me versus SofC". He's absolutely right on the mechanisms and what it's supposed to do. I'm more of an "end results" guy. And all I can tell you is that there is minuscule statistical evidence to support the notion that the QBO has any relationship to blocking. And there's even less evidence (zero, in fact... just based on the statistics) that it has any impact on North American temps. Doesn't matter if you look at QBO, QBO trend, or with or without various lead times. There's just no signal. I do NOT dispute that it has an effect... in some way. But that effect is either WAY too complex to bother discussing -QBO versus +QBO (because that's not ultimately what matters) or it's just too weak to be of any substance.

[mitchnick]

To be clear, the yellow and yellow-brown on the wind anomaly map do NOT mean westerly winds. They are anomalies. Normal winds are easterly. So, up to a certain point, those winds are just weaker easterlies. Not westerlies. And you'd like to see them further east. So, for my liking, there's nothing impressive there. Nonetheless, I still think we'll end up with a +0.8 to +1.1 for the winter.

the top map has arrows indicating wind direction and the area over the yellow portion I was referring to indicate westerly winds for the most part

though I don't disagree we want them further east, the anomalies have increased in the area and have started to move eastward

I may be pulling the trigger early (hey, I'm a weenie and it's the 1st week of October!), but I believe, as I stated, that it indicates the start of the warming advertised by the models

[StudentOfClimatology]

Nice that that you agree with me, but I'm not trying to make this "me versus SofC". He's absolutely right on the mechanisms and what it's supposed to do. I'm more of an "end results" guy. And all I can tell you is that there is minuscule statistical evidence to support the notion that the QBO has any relationship to blocking. And there's even less evidence (zero, in fact... just based on the statistics) that it has any impact on North American temps. Doesn't matter if you look at QBO, QBO trend, or with or without various lead times. There's just no signal. I do NOT dispute that it has an effect... in some way. But that effect is either WAY too complex to bother discussing -QBO versus +QBO (because that's not ultimately what matters) or it's just too weak to be of any substance.

Did you read any of the papers I posted? I think the majority of the literature would agree with me here, but I respect your opinion.

There's a lot to read and grasp on a topic like this so I can see why it'd push people away. It certainly pushed me away when I started my studies.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Interesting discussion on the QBO. But it is one index that I can ever seem to wrap my head around. Its kinda nebulous. Really positive values SEEM to indicate suppression of north Atlantic blocking. We apparently saw that last winter. Now the QBO is extremely negative. So what does it mean? Where do we go from here....warming in the stratosphere? Effect on the PV? Could it end up contributing to a Pacific Fire hose? The QBO sucked (consistently positive last winter) and we still pretty much had wall to wall cold, because other parameters (PDO, EPO, PNA) overwhelmed. I tend to agree with Millwx- on its own the QBO is not a really great tool.

PV will be weaker this winter, and the -QBO in tandem with the +ENSO circulation over the NPAC will likely force a SSW sometime this winter..so at least one of the months will probably be cold nationally, in my opinion.

[mitchnick]

they sure have improved the Barrow, AK webcam

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/webcam-uaf-barrow-seaice-images/current/image

[SnowGoose69]

Interesting discussion on the QBO. But it is one index that I can ever seem to wrap my head around. Its kinda nebulous. Really positive values SEEM to indicate suppression of north Atlantic blocking. We apparently saw that last winter. Now the QBO is extremely negative. So what does it mean? Where do we go from here....warming in the stratosphere? Effect on the PV? Could it end up contributing to a Pacific Fire hose? The QBO sucked (consistently positive last winter) and we still pretty much had wall to wall cold, because other parameters (PDO, EPO, PNA) overwhelmed. I tend to agree with Millwx- on its own the QBO is not a really great tool.

 

I've been saying with that SST anomaly in the GOA the QBO could be -45 this winter and it won't matter, that sort of SST setup assuming it does not totally reverse is going to make it very hard not to have ridging in that area, as a result the Pac Jet influence on the US will probably be mitigated significantly

[millwx]

the top map has arrows indicating wind direction and the area over the yellow portion I was referring to indicate westerly winds for the most part

though I don't disagree we want them further east, the anomalies have increased in the area and have started to move eastward

I may be pulling the trigger early (hey, I'm a weenie and it's the 1st week of October!), but I believe, as I stated, that it indicates the start of the warming advertised by the models

Yep, definitely some westerlies on there (albeit far, far out there). I was merely replying because the way I read the original post (apologies if I misread it) is that you were specifically talking about the anomaly map. So, I just wanted to clarify that a westerly anomaly doesn't mean a westerly wind (though even a westerly anomaly is helpful, of course... any reduction in the normal easterly flow is a good thing if you're hoping for warmer SSTs). No matter. We're on the same page.

[millwx]

I've been saying with that SST anomaly in the GOA the QBO could be -45 this winter and it won't matter, that sort of SST setup assuming it does not totally reverse is going to make it very hard not to have ridging in that area, as a result the Pac Jet influence on the US will probably be mitigated significantly

There's been a running debate over which of these (and other factors) are truly having an influence (not just between SofC and me on here, regarding QBO and, earlier, regarding the NPac, but also on another thread regarding snow cover). Sadly, none of that will get resolved this winter (not that one season can prove or disprove anything; you need a larger sample than that... but let's just say this season won't provide any "indications"). Why? Because unless there are drastic, unexpected changes in one of these indices/setups, everything's pointing in the same direction (cold!). So, either everything's gonna be right or it'll be a supreme bust.

One surprising (and unsettling) thing to me is that none of the seasonal models are cold. I know they aren't very good - especially on surface temps - and were warm last year too. But, even so, with almost every indicator pointing in the same direction, I'd think they'd manage to show SOME decent cold. The JAMSTEC leans cold, but is unimpressive in its September run; and the GloSea5 has a bit of cold in the Midwest, but VERY unimpressive. Everything else is warm (albeit close to normal on the GEOS5 and not TOO warm East on the CFS). I wonder what it is they're "seeing". Just hard for me to fathom how we can have warm GOA, weak to borderline moderate Niño, -QBO and a bunch of other stuff that I look at (only one favoring warmth and one neutral) and yet none of the models project any decent cold (you can argue that the JAMSTEC does, but it's borderline at best). Maybe it's the solar (which I'm not big on), which is relatively high in the current cycle... but even that is in a broader, long-term minimum (I believe... like I said, I don't follow that too closely). So, I don't think that's sufficient to force it warm. Either they all suck even worse than I imagined or the rest of us are all missing something in the equation. I'm not budging from my forecast. So, for now, I'm assuming the models are just terrible.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I've been saying with that SST anomaly in the GOA the QBO could be -45 this winter and it won't matter, that sort of SST setup assuming it does not totally reverse is going to make it very hard not to have ridging in that area, as a result the Pac Jet influence on the US will probably be mitigated significantly

Why would warm GOA SSTs force higher than normal pressures up there? Warmer SSTs promote enhanced lift/instability, and reduced surface pressures. Not sure how that translates to ridging. That sounds like an old wives tale to me.

You're also lacking an adequate energy differential...you're talking about SSTs that are 48F instead of 45F...say for the sake of argument we take the top 5m of the mixing layer over the NE-PAC/GOA and use it's entire thermal potential..you're looking at maybe 0.5-0.7% of the antecedent forcing over the Pacific domain.

So, yeah, I'm skeptical..

[StudentOfClimatology]

There's been a running debate over which of these (and other factors) are truly having an influence (not just between SofC and me on here, regarding QBO and, earlier, regarding the NPac, but also on another thread regarding snow cover). Sadly, none of that will get resolved this winter (not that one season can prove or disprove anything; you need a larger sample than that... but let's just say this season won't provide any "indications"). Why? Because unless there are drastic, unexpected changes in one of these indices/setups, everything's pointing in the same direction (cold!). So, either everything's gonna be right or it'll be a supreme bust.

One surprising (and unsettling) thing to me is that none of the seasonal models are cold. I know they aren't very good - especially on surface temps - and were warm last year too. But, even so, with almost every indicator pointing in the same direction, I'd think they'd manage to show SOME decent cold. The JAMSTEC leans cold, but is unimpressive in its September run; and the GloSea5 has a bit of cold in the Midwest, but VERY unimpressive. Everything else is warm (albeit close to normal on the GEOS5 and not TOO warm East on the CFS). I wonder what it is they're "seeing". Just hard for me to fathom how we can have warm GOA, weak to borderline moderate Niño, -QBO and a bunch of other stuff that I look at (only one favoring warmth and one neutral) and yet none of the models project any decent cold (you can argue that the JAMSTEC does, but it's borderline at best). Maybe it's the solar (which I'm not big on), which is relatively high in the current cycle... but even that is in a broader, long-term minimum (I believe... like I said, I don't follow that too closely). So, I don't think that's sufficient to force it warm. Either they all suck even worse than I imagined or the rest of us are all missing something in the equation. I'm not budging from my forecast. So, for now, I'm assuming the models are just terrible.

The climate models were actually even warmer this time last year, many actually looked 2011-12ish. I have yet to find a single climate model (except the JMA) that isn't biased absurdly warm just about everywhere.

This is a recent phenomenon as well. Back 5-7 years ago this problem didn't exist.

[CAPE]

Why would warm GOA SSTs force higher than normal pressures up there? Warmer SSTs promote enhanced lift/instability, and reduced surface pressures. Not sure how that translates to ridging. That sounds like an old wives tale to me.

You're also lacking an adequate energy differential...you're talking about SSTs that are 48F instead of 45F...say for the sake of argument we take the top 5m of the mixing layer over the NE-PAC/GOA and use it's entire thermal potential..you're looking at maybe 0.5-0.7% of the antecedent forcing over the Pacific domain.

So, yeah, I'm skeptical..

So you are saying that the warm SSTs in the GOA would not promote ridging? Seems it does though. Doesn't all that warmth at the surface expand the column and tend to cause the the 500 mb heights to rise....thus ridging,...and the jet stream is forced further north?

 

edit- I understand the general idea that warm SSTs would cause lift and thus result in low pressure at the surface.(as tends to occur in the tropics) But just because there is a blob of warmth at the surface, that does not necessarily equate to low pressure development. If there is a lack of surface forcing mechanisms and or an absence of upper level divergence to pull air from the column, you just have a mass of warmth sitting there and further warming the column above it. Just my simplistic thoughts and probably not correct, but I also think its a bit simplistic to suggest that anomalously high SSTs means there cant be a ridge in that region.

[mitchnick]

There's been a running debate over which of these (and other factors) are truly having an influence (not just between SofC and me on here, regarding QBO and, earlier, regarding the NPac, but also on another thread regarding snow cover). Sadly, none of that will get resolved this winter (not that one season can prove or disprove anything; you need a larger sample than that... but let's just say this season won't provide any "indications"). Why? Because unless there are drastic, unexpected changes in one of these indices/setups, everything's pointing in the same direction (cold!). So, either everything's gonna be right or it'll be a supreme bust.

One surprising (and unsettling) thing to me is that none of the seasonal models are cold. I know they aren't very good - especially on surface temps - and were warm last year too. But, even so, with almost every indicator pointing in the same direction, I'd think they'd manage to show SOME decent cold. The JAMSTEC leans cold, but is unimpressive in its September run; and the GloSea5 has a bit of cold in the Midwest, but VERY unimpressive. Everything else is warm (albeit close to normal on the GEOS5 and not TOO warm East on the CFS). I wonder what it is they're "seeing". Just hard for me to fathom how we can have warm GOA, weak to borderline moderate Niño, -QBO and a bunch of other stuff that I look at (only one favoring warmth and one neutral) and yet none of the models project any decent cold (you can argue that the JAMSTEC does, but it's borderline at best). Maybe it's the solar (which I'm not big on), which is relatively high in the current cycle... but even that is in a broader, long-term minimum (I believe... like I said, I don't follow that too closely). So, I don't think that's sufficient to force it warm. Either they all suck even worse than I imagined or the rest of us are all missing something in the equation. I'm not budging from my forecast. So, for now, I'm assuming the models are just terrible.

idk how well it performs vs. the rest of them, but the Euro seasonal model doesn't look that bad for the MA, at least not above average temps and above onprecip

this link isn't great, because it only gets you as far as NC, but that's all they offer on the free site

the link below is for DJF, but if you move to the next map, JFM, it's even cooler

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_2tm!2m%20temperature!3%20months!South%20America!201409!tercile%20summary!/

 

precip looks at least average for DJF, and likely above when you click on the next period, JFM

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_rain!rain!3%20months!South%20America!201409!tercile%20summary!/

 

sooooo, if the Euro is correct, looks like around normal temps, with a colder and wetter finish than to start

 

maps of the MA and NE may reflect BN temps, but you can't get them on the Euro site (I guess they could show AN temps, but I would guess not considering what can be seen on the free maps

[millwx]

idk how well it performs vs. the rest of them, but the Euro seasonal model doesn't look that bad for the MA, at least not above average temps and above onprecip

this link isn't great, because it only gets you as far as NC, but that's all they offer on the free site

the link below is for DJF, but if you move to the next map, JFM, it's even cooler

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_2tm!2m%20temperature!3%20months!South%20America!201409!tercile%20summary!/

precip looks at least average for DJF, and likely above when you click on the next period, JFM

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_rain!rain!3%20months!South%20America!201409!tercile%20summary!/

sooooo, if the Euro is correct, looks like around normal temps, with a colder and wetter finish than to start

maps of the MA and NE may reflect BN temps, but you can't get them on the Euro site (I guess they could show AN temps, but I would guess not considering what can be seen on the free maps

Nope. I'm lucky. For my work we purchase the Euro data. So I see the whole domain. The Euro is a torch for basically the entire US all winter (except Feb in the Southeast, if I recall correctly - I don't have it in front of me right now). It's the warmest of all models (well, the Brazilian is about as warm, but I don't count that one - I'm not sure of it's historical performance), followed by the CFS, the GEOS5, GloSea5 and JAMSTEC. (JMA is cold, most of the various CPC models - like the CCA - are warm... but the aforementioned five are the ones I focus on.)

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm sorry, but I don't see how anybody can put faith in modeled forecasts 2 to 5 months in advance.

Then you've got the ole above normal, below normal, and normal. A degree or two and an inch or two of precip over a three month period is not gonna make or break a winter.

[mitchnick]

Nope. I'm lucky. For my work we purchase the Euro data. So I see the whole domain. The Euro is a torch for basically the entire US all winter (except Feb in the Southeast, if I recall correctly - I don't have it in front of me right now). It's the warmest of all models (well, the Brazilian is about as warm, but I don't count that one - I'm not sure of it's historical performance), followed by the CFS, the GEOS5, GloSea5 and JAMSTEC. (JMA is cold, most of the various CPC models - like the CCA - are warm... but the aforementioned five are the ones I focus on.)

well, that's surprising based on those maps

Coastalwx over in the NE forum said the Eurosips are not bad for the east coast

in any event, I guess my bubble is officially popped now

I'm gunna' have to catch a few squirrels now and interrogate them...anybody know if they speak Baltimoreeze?

[mitchnick]

I'm sorry, but I don't see how anybody can put faith in modeled forecasts 2 to 5 months in advance.

Then you've got the ole above normal, below normal, and normal. A degree or two and an inch or two of precip over a three month period is not gonna make or break a winter.

putting faith in them and discussing them are two different things

 

anyway, everyone knows they are just run to give weenies comfort, comfort when they show cold and wet that we can point out out one winter when they were right and comfort when they are warm and dry that we can point out another winter when they were wrong  

[uncle W]

the AO is still forecast to dip below -4.000...when the AO was this low in October we saw near record cold and in 1979 the earliest snowfall on record...

[millwx]

well, that's surprising based on those maps

Coastalwx over in the NE forum said the Eurosips are not bad for the east coast

in any event, I guess my bubble is officially popped now

I'm gunna' have to catch a few squirrels now and interrogate them...anybody know if they speak Baltimoreeze?

EuroSip and Euro model are two different things. Technically, the EuroSip isn't a model (it's like a super-ensemble). That's the source of the discrepancy.

[mitchnick]

EuroSip and Euro model are two different things. Technically, the EuroSip isn't a model (it's like a super-ensemble). That's the source of the discrepancy.

no, I know, which is why I referenced them as the Eurosips

but do they look better in your opinion than the Euro long range?

[PhineasC]

Long range models are just about the most useless things in weather forecasting. I would trust the scent of fresh squirrel farts in Brookline, MA as a predictor of winter weather over those things. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Long range models are just about the most useless things in weather forecasting. I would trust the scent of fresh squirrel farts in Brookline, MA as a predictor of winter weather over those things.

[millwx]

no, I know, which is why I referenced them as the Eurosips

but do they look better in your opinion than the Euro long range?

I honestly don't have much opinion on them. While super-ensembles are nice in that they'll do weightings based on past performance, so they basically give a good summary, I don't use them much. I don't find them very helpful. I mean, as others have commented on, the seasonal models are so hit or miss in the first place, I'd just rather take a look at each one individually. So, I don't give the EuroSip or IRI model a second glance.

[MDstorm]

Aug/Sept MEI dropped to 0.5. On a weenie note, the MEI in Aug/Sept 2009 also dropped before it began to climb again. I guess the next 30 days will be telling.

MDstorm

[mitchnick]

the northern hemisphere oceans are really cooling...I have, of course, no idea what it means for our winter, but everything is getting cold like I do not recall ever happening

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif

[AlaskaETC]

Interesting...although didn't we see some cooling last year? I noticed a lot of arctic storms are active right now, so maybe that's why?

[WEATHER53]

If already commented on please forgive. Recent events intrigue me as to winter implications. Pretty rare for air the cold air to come in  and remain on mostly southerly winds.  Keep an eye on that, those dewpoints last night were something.

[GaWx]

the northern hemisphere oceans are really cooling...I have, of course, no idea what it means for our winter, but everything is getting cold like I do not recall ever happening

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif

Mitch,

I looked at the loop and it looks really strange. Do you think there's something wrong with those maps?

[StudentOfClimatology]

Yeah that looks somewhat suspicious to me.

[ohleary]